Topic: FADE ME! - (46W - 33L) (+24.05 UNITS) FREE Daily Betting Tips - Startup Thread - page 33. (Read 12723 times)

These are the top two teams in Group C, both playing in the top tier of Scottish football. St. Johnson is playing their third match in the competition, winning the previous two 2-1 over Kelty Hearts who play in one of the lowest divisions of Scottish football and 7-0 over Brechin City who play in Scottish League Two. St. Johnstone are unbeaten in their last five, but sit in eighth place in the League on 14 points and a -6 goal difference. They have not been as dominate in the League as they have been in this competition. They do come off a 1-0 win in the League over sixth place Kilmarnock. Only three of their 13 matches in the Scottish Premier League have hit 3 or more goals. The visitors are also unbeaten in their last five and come off a scoreless draw against 11th place St. Mirren (there are only 12 teams in the League). Dundee United are playing in their fourth match in the League Cup having gone 2-1-0 with a 6-2 win over Brechin, a 1-0 loss to Peterhead, and a 1-0 win over Kelty Hearts. This will be the 56th meeting between these two clubs with the series just leaning for St. Johnstone with a 20-19-16 record, though they are 11-11-9 at home. These two have played three straight and they have hit 2 or fewer goals with just three of the last 12 hitting 3 or more goals. Neither side will want to make a mistake here as control of the group is on the line. Hence, we go with the Under here as we could have made it a step-out but we are good with this selection today.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

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Monday morning the Bears took Game #1 beating the KT Wiz 3-2 but tomorrow morning I see the Wiz evening up this series. Odrisamer Despaigne takes the mound today and I see him outpitching Choi Won-joon and look for the Wiz to score some early runs. I know the Wiz have dropped back-to-back games but again look for the bats of the Wiz to score and score often.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

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 I expect a very low-scoring game here Monday night given the way these 2 teams match up against each other. The Jets have converted just 28.3% of their 3rd downs this season and they have averaged just 6.3 points per game over their last 3 games while putting up 224.7 yards per game. New England has averaged just 13 points per game over their last 3 games while putting up just 292.7 yards per game and they have averaged just 192 passing yards per game this season and they have averaged just 192 passing yards per game this season. The over/under is 1-7 in last 8 games play between these 2 teams and that was when New England had a prolific offense. The over/under is also 1-4 in New England's last 5 games when favored and 1-10 in New England's last 11 road games when playing a team that has a losing record at home. Play the UNDER here Monday night.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

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The Bucs did not play well on Monday Night Football but still managed to get a win. I think that they will be ready to have a much sharper effort in this game. They have revenge for a loss against New Orleans in Week 1 and I think that the Saints have been a bit shaky over the last month. Right now I just think that Tampa Bay is the better team. Give them home field and revenge motivation and that looks good to me. Beyond that, the public is coming down on the side of the Saints. I'm going to bet against the crowd and I actually don't think that this game is going to be competitive at all.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

I feel that Houston is hands-down the superior team here and I expect them to step up defensively and they are much better than their record indicates. Houston has also played much tougher opponents than Jacksonville so far this season and they did beat Jacksonville by 16 points back on October 11 putting up 357 passing yards against them while rushing for 129 yards. Houston also held Jacksonville to just 75 rushing yards in that game and they have completed 69.2% of their passes this season averaging 283 passing yards per game. Jacksonville's opponents have completed 71.6% of their passes against them this season averaging 282 passing yards per game against them and 143 rushing yards per game against them this season. Houston has averaged 28.7 points per game over their last 3 games while putting up 421 yards per game and I expect a blow win for them here Sunday. This is also a huge bounce back game for Houston and they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after a double-digit loss at home and they are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 trips to Jacksonville. Jacksonville is just 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after a loss and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Play Houston ATS

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

 Tennessee got a much-needed bye week to regroup after three straight losses, and I expect them to take care of business on the road against Arkansas Saturday night. After losing to Alabama last year, Tennessee would go on to win six straight games, and I see a similar streak happening today. Arkansas is better this year, but I cannot overlook the fact that they are 4-24 straight-up in their last 28 games. Tennessee is 3-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 5 road games. Arkansas has trouble stopping the run and look for Tennessee to exploit that.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

Appalachian State is a perfect 4-0 in this series winning those four games over the past season by an average of 21 points. They come into this game 4-1 on the year with their four victories coming by an average of 23 points per game. They were totally dominant last week in their 31-13 win over Louisiana Monroe much more so than the actual final score. The Mountaineers lone loss this season came early in the year to a Marshall team that looks to be one of the better non-power five teams in the country. I think this loss is still giving APSU some added line value but make no mistake about it this program looks to be every bit as good as they have been in past seasons when they were on average 25 point favorites against this Texas State squad.

I liked this Texas State team a little bit early on this season but things have went downhill in a hurry for the Bobcats who come into this game with a 1-7 record overall in 2020. Their 10 point loss last week to Louisiana Lafayette wasn't nearly as close as the final score as they benefitted in a big way from three ULL fumbles in the contest. The Bobcats defense was awful for the 2nd week in a row allowing more than 600 yards in the loss. TSU was also a big 17 point underdog last week against a ULL squad that's not as good as the APSU team that they will be facing off against in this one.

Take Appalachian State minus the points.
Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Teixeira 
*The leans below will not count to my stats here in this thread. Follow or fade, it's up to you!

CANCELLED DUE TO COVID 19 - Take Brendan Allen over Ian Heinisch

Like Allen here in a classic Grappler vs Strikers matchup. Allen will go to the take down early and often, while Heinisch will want to stay on his feet and pretty much try and box Allen. I like Allen mainly because he is good enough at grappling to dictate the fight as he knows if he stays on his feet, Heinisch can flat out knock him out. Look for an early takedown here, and I expect a fight to be won by submission here with Allen getting it done.

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WON - Take Yan Xiaonan over Claudia Gadelha

Like the striker and up tempo Xiaonan here who will dictate pace in this fight and Gadeliha is a pure grappler and in my opinion when I have seen her relies on that versus being in top shape, and against a quick and fast paced fighter and striker, unless she can get Yan on the mat she has little chance of winning the fight. Pretty cheap number for what I think will be a lopsided fight.

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WON - Take OVER 1.5 ROUNDS between Thiago Santos and Glover Teixeira

Going to be a good one here with Santos I think having the upper hand (he is -220) and should win (HINT if you do not mind chalk). That said Glover although 41, still has a hell of a chin and can take some abuse. He got beat up early and looked like he was going down in 3 out of his last 4 fights but rallied. Father time catching up but I think he can extends this fight past 1.5 rounds. Santos had a ACL issue and repair, and he ois off a loss in a close title fight against Jon Jones. He may be slightly tentative and feel his away around, and must avoid any Teixeira takedowns, because that is how Teixeira will have to play this out for a shot, because Santos despite his good chin can knock him out.

Michigan State is getting a little too much credit for it's rivalry win over Michigan, while Iowa is off to a 0-2 start, despite out-gaining both opponents. Iowa led in the second half of both games and held a 17-point lead against Northwestern. MSU has covered just 5 of their last 19 games and they're 1-6 ATS in their last seven when getting points. Iowa is on a 10-2 ATS run off a SU loss, including 6-0 ATS off multiple losses. HC Kirk Ferentz normally gets his team focused on the task at hand in this situation and we expect more of the same here. Michigan State has had a tough time running the football and winning with a one-dimensional offense in Iowa City is not likely. Their top two ball carriers, the only players with 20 or more carries on the team, have averaged 3.5 & 2.3 yards per carry. You've heard the old saying and it still rings true -- bet on lines not teams. We're getting both in our favor here. I'm laying the points with Iowa on Saturday.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

Boise has posted a 6-1 ATS record in their last seven home games and they have gone an excellent 7-1 ATS in their last eight games where they were listed as an underdog. They have also covered the number in five of their last seven Friday night games and they have that same 5-2 ATS record in their last seven games overall. BYU, on the other hand, has struggled a bit in the spot they are in here on Friday as they have gone just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a game where they allowed 20 points or less and they have that same 2-6 ATS record in their last eight off a game where they won by 20 or more. They have also failed to cover the number in four of their last five following an ATS loss and they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games played in the month of November. Throw in the fact that the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five head to head meetings between the two schools and we're taking the field goal or so here with Boise in a game that we think they win outright at home on Friday night.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

This line flipped from Boise -3 on look aheads to +3.5 now. BYU no doubt with their triggerman Wilson at QB is a damn good team, but funny things happen on the Blue Carpet at night in Boise. Add in the fact since BYU has played 7 games and Boise only 2, it is fueling this line. That said BOTH teams will score and often in my opinion, and if QB Sears goes for Boise St again, I am not worried they racked up 49 points last week and he was the apparent next big thing at USC before transferring out under Helton's regime. BYU's 6th ranked defense has played the likes of W. Kentucky, Texas State, Houston, Texas San Antonio, and Troy to name a few, hardly elite teams. I like both teams in the 30's here.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

Friday and Saturday Soccer Bonanza  
*The leans below will not count to my stats here in this thread. Follow or fade, it's up to you!

English Premier League
WON - Take Southampton over Newcastle (3:00p.m., Friday, November 6th)

Southampton has been on cruise control as of late piling up points and wins and today at home I see home pitch holding again. Southampton last 5 league games they are 4-0-1 and their last 2 home games they haven't given up a goal. I know Newcastle has won their last 4 matches against Southampton but this is a different Southampton team. Let's also throw in that Southampton has scored at least 2 goals or more in their last 4 home matches.

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WON - Take Chelsea -1.5 over Sheffield (12:30p.m., Saturday, November 7th)

Chelsea last two matches they have outscored their opponents 7-0 and their last league game they beat Burnley on the road 3-0. Sheffield las 5 league games they are 0-4-1 and if Chelsea hits the back of the net early this match could get ugly quick.

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Liga MX
WON - Take Under 2.5 between CF America and FC Juarez (10:30p.m., Friday, November 6th)

FC Juarez is coming off a home win beating Jaguares Chiapas 1-0 and tonight I see a low scoring pitch. I know CF America can score quickly but with them on the road I see Juarez winning this pitch 1-0 or keep an eye out from a 1-1 draw as well.

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Germany - Bundesliga
WON - Take Union Berlin over Arminia (9:30a.m., Saturday, November 7th)

Hovland has started the 2021 season where he left off in 2020, playing himself into contention every week. Hovland has made all three Cuts this season with two Top Ten's. Hovland had eight opening rounds in the 60s from 11 starts after the restart and we expect another strong showing for Hovland in Texas where he has consistently done well. For Day, he has had mixed results to start the 2021 season, missing a Cut at the Shriners and withdrawing at The CJ Cup. Day finished T60 last week at the ZOZO while Hovland finished T47. Day did not make the Top 30 last season to play at East Lake with a 64th place finish at the BMW. Day is far from his best and really just not sharp right now, while Hovland has the hunger.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

We roll with Stan here as he likely gets it done and stays within the game limit against Rublev. Remember, Stan plays up to opponnets who are great and plays down to bad opponents. This is how he has always been as he continues to collect paychecks. He took Medvedev to a great match and beat him who is top 10, the same with Zverev as he took a set off him and he comes off a 4-6, 4-6 loss to Rublev before - but given that Stan lost a set in his last match he has revenge against Rublev and can hit as hard as anyone on the tour still, we roll with Stan here.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

As per our selection on Arsenal to win this game by two goals, they are far and away the better team in this matchup and enter with two straight wins (with clean sheets) which is vital to this bet. We see them being able to dictate possession in this contest and take their chances well against a Molde side, who despite winning six straight games, are fighting above their weight class in this one, especially on the road. Molde is a good team out of Norway, but they won't be able to keep up with the pace and talent of a really good Premier League team. Arsenal will win this game by two goals and push them to the brink of the knockout stage of the Europa League.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

This is as much of a play against Sergio Garcia as it is a play on Tony Finau and we like when the situation arises in a head-to-head matchup. Sergio has had some bad rounds when playing in a tournament the week before The Masters and it's understandable if you're trying to conserve energy for the battle for the green jacket. Tony Finau normally has no issues on a course like the one the guys are playing this week. In fact, it's tough to find issues with Finau in general -- he rarely disappoints. His game fits Memorial Park GC and we power rated his price much higher than the books. I'm backing Tony Finau over Sergio Garcia in Thursday's first round action.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

I'm backing Ball State plus the points on Wednesday. The MAC is back and we expect the Cardinals to beat Miami for the second straight season. Miami is at its best when they are running the football. However, their top two RBs are out and we do expect the offense to be hamstrung. Ball State came within 8 points of a 7-1 MAC record last season and this is the most talented team they've fielded in years. They have plenty of offensive talent and beat Miami 41-27 last season. And finally, for what it's worth, Ball State has covered four in a row as a road dog, while Miami has covered just 4 of their last 14 as home chalk. I'm backing Ball State on Wednesday.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

Thursday Golf Bonanza 
*The leans below will not count to my stats here in this thread. Follow or fade, it's up to you!

PGA TOUR: Houston Open (USA)
ACTIVE - Take Tyrrell Hatton for Top European (6:45 a.m., Thursday, November 5th)

Hatton continues to contend constantly all over the world. Since his win at the BMW PGA Championship on the European Tour, he notched a T3 at the CJ Cup and followed it up with a solid T-28 at the ZoZo Championship. The last tourney was unusual, as he had three rounds at 68 or lower and somehow has a third-round 76. Nonetheless, in Hatton's last six rounds in the States, six have been 68 or better and he's 7th in birdie average which is important with five Par 5's this week.

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ACTIVE - Take Russell Henley for Top 10 Finish (6:45 a.m., Thursday, November 5th)

Henley was hot last month with a T3 and T4 at the CJ Cup and ZoZo respectively. He got things going with a T27 at the Shiners and should be primed for another great finish. Though Henley is run of the mill distance-wise, he's 12th in driver accuracy, 8th in hitting greens, 7th in birdies, and 14th in scoring. He also won this tournament three years ago and should be a contender again.

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ACTIVE - Take Lanto Griffin for Top 20 Finish (6:45 a.m., Thursday, November 5th)

Griffin finished T7 and T11 at the aforementioned CJ Cup and ZoZo and he accomplished that despite shooting final rounds of 72 twice that dropped him out of Top 5 and Top 10 finishes. That's why I'm backing off a Top 10 for Griffin and adding more value and units bet just to slide into the Top 20 this week. Plus, Griffin should be quite comfortable, since he is the defending Houston Open champion.

Chelsea is playing their best football as of late and their last two games (both away)they have won 3-0 and 4-0 and today I see them taking the 3-points over Rennes. Rennes last 5 matches they are 1-2-2 and they have trouble scoring on the road. I know Chelsea will be without Christian Pulisic but they are a very deep team and today I see Chelsea winning 2-0.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

We have a decent pitching matchup in Game 1 between the Bears & Twins but the LG offense has been a little too inconsistent for our blood. Chris Flexen gets the start for Doosan and he has been as good as it gets. Flexen has allowed just 3 earned runs in his last 5 starts, spanning 31.2 IP, to go along with 43 strikeouts and only 4 walks. He’s 4-0 in those outings. LG sends Min-Ho Lee to the mound and he’s been nearly as good as Flexen of late. However, we’re betting LG will have a tough time putting runs on the board. Meanwhile, Doosan has been the more reliable offense over the course of the season and they have the experience of winning a championship, having done so in 2019. We’re backing Doosan on the runs line on Wednesday.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter