Topic: FADE ME! - (46W - 33L) (+24.05 UNITS) FREE Daily Betting Tips - Startup Thread - page 36. (Read 12690 times)

This is a very interesting matchup as it pits Mr. Consistency versus one of the hottest players on tour right now. Hatton has been just lights out as of late, but fatigue is about to set in. Hatton played across the pond two weeks ago and then flew right back and played in Vegas last week. Hatton has mentioned that he is starting to run out of gas a bit and he actually didn't feel great during the final round in the last tournament. Now he is matchup up against a player that should be able to just destroy this course. Sherwood is a shorter course with Bentgrass greens, and that falls right into Simpson's wheelhouse. Not only that but Simpson is an extremely consistent iron player and typically is one of the best with his approach shots. This is going to pay huge dividends at what looks to be a birdie fest. Now we don't see Hatton just laying down and getting run off the course, but when it comes to this specific matchup he will fall pray to the consistency of Simpson.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

As per our selection on Morikawa, he came up big for us last week as he dispatched of Matsuyama for the whole tournament and in Round 4. We like him here this week once again this time to beat Webb Simpson over the course of four rounds. Morikawa has played outstanding golf of late and his numbers rate out extremely positively for a course like Sherwood that demand complete control of your irons. We have Morikawa as a bigger favorite in this matchup and as such we are playing the better player at a great value price in this spot. Remember, this is a full tournament play.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

The better pitching situation belongs to the underdog in this one and a significant one at this price. Dodger righty Tony Gonsolin has not pitched of late, allowing 11 earned runs and 18 base runners in 12.1 IP, covering his last three outings. He's not eating up innings and when he's in the game he's not fooling many batters. The biggest concern are his 6 walks in his last 6.1 IP. Blake Snell has been the much better starter of late between the two and we expect a decent outing here. Neither offense is as strong in tonight's situation as they were heading into Game 1 and that benefits Tampa more than L.A., in Game 2. I'm backing the Tampa Bay Rays on Wednesday.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

Sinner is just 19 years old and we are very high on him. Remember, he's so young that despite Duckworth being 27 years old they have never played. Sinner took Nadal to a tiebreaker in the French Open and that was as close as Nadal came to losing a set frankly, he also had him at 6-4 in the 2nd set too. This kid is immensely talented and if Duckworth had issues with Tommy Paul recently losing 2-6, 3-6 in a match in Paris, imagine the issues he might face with Sinner. We think Sinner can win this match 6-3, 6-3 here and consequently will take him and lay the games here. Remember, Sinner is great at breaking serve as well and has a fantastic serve and of course the 19 year old legs don't hurt either.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

Tuesday Soccer Bonanza 
*The leans below will not count to my stats here in this thread. Follow or fade, it's up to you!


LOST - Take Both Teams To Score between Chelsea and Sevilla (3:00p.m., Tuesday, October 20th)

I think this Champions League pitch I see tons of goals being served and I'm shocked that this number wasn't higher. Over the weekend Chelsea blew a 2-0 lead to Southampton and that game ended 3-3 so not only will we see Chelsea hit the back of the net but I also see Sevilla also scoring today in this pitch.

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LOST - Take Dortmund over Lazio (3:00p.m., Tuesday, October 20th)

Over the weekend Lazio lost badly to Sampdoria 3-0 and their last 5 league games they are 1-3-1. Dortmund has won back-to-back games with winning against Hoffenheim on the road 1-0. I will lay the small juice on the 3-way with Borussia Dortmund on Tuesday.

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WON - Take Juventus over Dynamo Kyiv (12:55p.m., Saturday, October 20th)

As per our selection on Juventus, they are coming off a dull 1-1 draw against bottom of the table Crotone in Italy, but conceded a penalty and got themselves a red card. They should be more focused on this contest with an extremely strong lineup put forward. Juventus are a good bet away from home in the CL as they've won 8 of their last 12 fixtures away from home in the group stage with six of those games featuring clean sheets and two-plus goals scored. Kyiv will be out of their weight class here despite being unbeaten in 10 games. Juventus is the class and will need to get off to a winning start in order to keep pace with Barcelona.

It is absolutely no secret our love for Clayton Kershaw and we think he finally busts through as what we will see is the Kershaw that won a big game against the Brewers rather than the Kershaw that struggles typically in every post-season. Does it not cement him in Baseball's annals if he finally comes through today and puts the demons behind him? Tyler Glasnow is a fantastic pitcher but the issue here is he has given up 8 Homeruns in his last 5 games and he has been suspect to the long ball which is what the Dodgers do well. Note, the total sits at 7.5 and not at 9 if a higher scoring game was expected and also note that Kershaw has a 2.16 era this year as well and he has had a very strong effort this year. He is fresh as well compared to the seasons past with a shortened season this year because of Covid. Kershaw has not had 3 straight non-quality starts either this year and to be honest, after the 2-10 shallacking at the hands of the Braves in his last start, I think Clayton pitches great today and the Rays have trouble hitting the fast ball at times and I think it will serve him well in this matchup which is why he is starting off this series.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

All about starting pitching in this matchup and I know the Twins have won 7 out 10 but I have not been a fan of starter Lim Chan-gyu. Wiz starter Bae Je-seong has split his last two starts but he has already beaten the Twins once this season and I see him getting early run support tomorrow morning.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

This play is all on the defense of the Dallas Cowboys as the Dallas 'D' is giving up an average of 40ppg in their last 4 games. Last week the New York Giants defense scored 34 points against them. We all know that the Cowboys will be without Dak Prescott for the rest of the season but I believe the Boys offense will still be potent with Andy Dalton behind center. The Cardinals have played 5 games and all 5 of them have gone 'Under' but Monday night I see the Cardinals scoring like they did last week against the Jets (30 points) and I see this Monday Night game flying the 'Over'. The Dallas Cowboys are 5-0 O/U last 5 home games and the Cowboys are 16-5 O/U against NFC teams.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

I'm going to keep this one kind of short and sweet. First of all, this fits all of the criteria and scores extremely high on my system metrics. I'm not going to share any of the parts of my system, but this one is worth its weight.

On just a base level, though, this situation is set up for runs. Everyone thinks of Game 7's as these close, low-scoring, back-and-forth affairs. Honestly, they are usually blowouts. And 7 of the last 11 LCS games (in both leagues) prior to this year had seen seven or more runs scored. There have been Game 7's with 15, 14, 12 runs scored, so they aren't all 2-1 gems. That's exactly what I think is going to happen tonight. With the talent in both of these lineups - and we've seen both lineups explode at times in this series - there are going to be some runs and I think that one of these teams is going to win by four or more runs. I'm less concerned with who is coming out of this series as I am the fact that I think they will both slug it out.

Finally, James Hoye is behind the plate. He has one of the smallest strike zones in the Majors. Always has. The Dodgers take a lot of pitches and I think they are going to be able to wear down Ian Anderson, bump him early, and get into that Braves bullpen. It really doesn't even matter who starts for the Dodgers, in my opinion. None of their starters have exactly been lights out and if Hoye is helping them run up their pitch counts we are going to see a lot of different guys throw for L.A. as well.

I really like this play and I can see this one becoming a 7-3 or 8-4 game and I expect this one to clear the total by two or more runs.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

I've been a long-time NFL totals player. I've never seen a more skewed totals market than what we have this year. Basically, ever total has been inflated by a full touchdown this season compared to what that total would've been in a 'normal' year. So by that measure the 'real' total for this game would be around 37.5 or 38.0. That's ridiculous. That is the total when you have two Top 5 or Top 10 defenses, likely division rivals, playing in bad weather, with conservative ground-and-pound offenses. That's not at all what we have here.

I can't say enough good things about Joe Brady, the new offensive coordinator for the Panthers. Carolina's offense is legit. They are No. 6 in the league in yards per game, posting 400 total yards per contest, and they are No. 5 in passing offense. However, the Panthers have had some red zone issues and they are just No. 21 in scoring with 24.4 points per game. There's a disconnect there and I think that it will work itself out. And that means more scoring. The Panthers have topped 30 points in both of their home games this year. And even though the Bears do still have a Top 10 defense it isn't the type of dominating, overwhelming Bears D we have seen from them in the past.

The key to this play is the Bears offense. Their numbers through five games have been atrocious. However, half of their season was spent with Mitch Trubisky under center. He is not an NFL-caliber quarterback and is a train wreck. In the 10 quarters that Nick Foles has been running the offense they have managed 51 points. That's an average of about 20 points per game. But you need to dig a little deeper. Over the last two weeks the Bears have faced the No. 1 total defense in the NFL (Colts) and then, on a short week, the No. 2 total defense in the NFL (Bucs). They scored a modest 31 points in those two games. They also scored 17 points against a solid Giants defense. And against the two bad defenses that they have taken on this year, the Lions and Falcons, they scored 27 and 30 points, respectively.

Carolina is another bad defense. They allow 24 points per game, but those numbers are deflated due to some fortunate/fluke plays in the red zone. The Panthers have a terrible run defense and they play a lot of zone coverage against the pass. A veteran like Nick Foles should be able to take advantage of that. Carolina has fluked out a defensive yards per point of 20.1 in their last three games and it was 23.1 last week against Atlanta. That's not sustainable. And I think they will get victimized a bit this week.

Bears coach Matt Nagy called out his offense in a big way this week. Several players on that side of the ball commented that Nagy was right and that they need to step it up. I think that this soft Carolina defense provides the perfect opportunity. I don't see a scenario where both teams don't get to 20 points. I have this one as 28-23 for the Bears and I think that this one will beat this total.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

We not only have the pitching advantage when this game gets underway (Fried over Buehler) but also the advantage at the plate. That's not to say that the Dodgers aren't good against southpaws but the Braves own fantastic metrics in this spot. The Braves are #1 in all of MLB this season against righties in wOBA and they're tied for #1 in wRC+, my two favorite metrics when it comes to offense. Add-in an overpriced favorite (steep price for a neutral site game) and we have an underdog play. I'm backing the Braves on Saturday.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

Just feel that the wrong team is favored in this game. Wake Forest needed some time off to get healthy, and I feel their offensive is explosive and can score points with their up-tempo style. Virginia has quarterback injury issues, and they are coming off a home loss to NC State. They were not competitive in that game, and they have lost 3 straight games to Wake Forest. Coach Clawson has won 4 straight games when they are an underdog of 3 points or less. This team played NC State much better than did Virginia and would have won that game if not for a couple of fluke plays. Virginia is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against Wake Forest. The underdog is 5-2 ATS (1 push) in the last 8 meetings between the Cavaliers and Demon Deacons. Wake Forest is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs The Korean Zombie 
*The leans below will not count to my stats here in this thread. Follow or fade, it's up to you!


LOST - Take Gadzhimurad Antigulov over Maxim Grishin (4:35p.m., Saturday, October 17th)

In an early prelim bout, we have a light heavyweight matchup between Gadzhimurad Antigulov (20-7) and Maxim Grishin (30-8). Bettors beware - both men are not elite level MMA athletes. Antigulov is 33 years of age, and is on a 3-fight losing streak, all by 1st round finish and 36-year-old Grishin lost his UFC debut by nothing other than a tremendously low workrate. Antigulov will bring full energy from the first minute attempting to sink in a submission, but this all-out approach has been his achilles heel as of late. He does pack some power in his hands, but do not get it twisted - he is always looking to set up the takedown so he can work on the ground. Grishin on the other hand is patient, will wait for his opportunities and has shown the power to shut the lights out. Grishin is the much bigger fighter here, and with the recent performances of Antigulov it is no surprise to see the current market price this high. Having said that, we believe the Antigulov cardio narrative is being overblown. Yes, his cardio is questionable, and yes, he has completely fallen off a cliff from time to time - but Grishin's slow, low-volume approach should not cause too many issues for Antigulov in that department. Gun to head, we probably believe Grishin wins by KO - but there is clear value here on Antigulov where we can buy his stock at the lowest possible price. He'll bring all he can here, as he cannot afford another loss... he's essentially fighting for his job and position in the UFC. We'll bite.

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LOST - Take Jamie Mullarkey over Fares Ziam (5:00p.m., Saturday, October 17th)

Next up we have a matchup between Jamie Mullarkey (12-3) and Fares Ziam (10-3). There is not too much to say about this one. Both fighters lost in their UFC debut and will potentially be fighting for their position with the organization. Mullarkey lost against Brad Riddell back in 2019 (no shame there) and was scheduled to fight the talented Jalin Turner earlier this year before that bout was cancelled. Both those opponents clearly show the UFC's confidence in this young man. Ziam on the other hand lost a dominant decision to Don Madge in a performance that did not sit right with us. It should also be noted that Ziam has fought the seemingly worse level of competition outside of the UFC, but this is always hard to determine with the tomato cans on the regional scene. Mullarkey, despite losing his debut, showed clear determination and heart, alongside the drive and will to win vs the much tougher opponent. If Ziam is able to utilize his range and work from distance, he may have some success here, but overall we cannot pass up the grit Mullarkey possesses and that can be all the difference in a fight like this. We will side with the small favorite who we believe should be priced closer to -170 or so.

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WON - Take Guram Kutateladze over Mateusz Gamrot (6:35p.m., Saturday, October 17th)

In the featured prelim of the evening we have a lightweight matchup between undefeated Mateusz Gamrot (17-0) and Guram Kutateladze (11-2). Win or lose - these are the opportunities we live for as we love to fade unproven high stock which is something that has worked out very well for us in the long-term. Polish Guram Kutateladze has it all going for him, doesn't he? Undefeated Champion (in other organizations), dangerous southpaw, trains with American Top Team and will be making his long-awaited UFC debut, in the featured prelim against the much lesser known Guram Kutateladze. Gamrot is a fluid striker who can push the pace, and throw high volume, accurate combinations. Kutateladze on the other hand is more unpredictable and somewhat a wild-card, but he throws with some serious power and bad-intention. This can be seen with four of his last five coming by way of vicious KO. Guram trains with Khamzat Chimaev (who we believe has all the tools to be a title contender / champion) and we have no doubts that we will see the best Kutateladze to date. While we understand the hype behind the Polish standout, we cannot get behind a price this wide when we have no clue how he will perform under the bright lights. The issue we have with Gamrot is that while he is no doubt talented, he does not have one aspect which is clearly elite to justify such a price tag vs. the tough, heavy-handed Kutateladze. Once again, we will bite by fading the overpriced hype train in their debut.

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WON - Take Jonathan Martinez over Thomas Almeida (7:00p.m., Saturday, October 17th)

Kicking off the main-card on ESPN, we have a featherweight matchup between Thomas Almeida (22-3) and Jonathan Martinez (12-3). Thomas Almedia was on an absolute tear in his MMA career with a 20-0 record including 3 knockout wins in a row in the UFC. He was being touted as the next biggest thing - then he ran into Cody Garbrandt who had other plans by finishing Almeida in the first round via KO. Almeida answered back by winning his comeback fight, but that was against an average opponent in Albert Morales. He then proceeded to lose two in a row vs Jimmie Rivera and Rob Font which was back in 2018 and has not fought since due an eye injury that required surgery. Martinez on the other hand has been highly active and is coming off an absolute domination of Frankie Saenz back in early August. If not for a close split-decision loss to Andre Ewell, he would be riding a four-fight winning streak. The thing we like about Martinez is his clear development and growth as a martial artist, and his ever-improving skill set and octagon IQ. This is something that cannot be said of Almeida who simply comes forward guns blazing, with that kill or be-killed mentality. Both fighters pack a ton of power for the division, but we believe the wrong man is favored. We understand Martinez is stepping in on short notice, but he's been in there multiple times since we last saw Almeida. If not for all the uncertainty surrounding this fight we would go heavier here but make no mistake - we love this position for Martinez as long as he doesn't get suckered into a swinging match. Love the value here.

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LOST - Take Claudio Silva over James Krause (7:30p.m., Saturday, October 17th)

Next up, we have a welterweight bout between Claudio Silva (14-1) and James Krause (27-9). 38-year-old Claudi Silva is now 5-0 in the UFC and is coming off three-straight submission wins. That is impressive regardless of who you are fighting at this level. It should be noted that Silva lost his MMA career debut just (as many have) but has since reeled off 14-straight. He will be facing James Krause, who is returning to welterweight after a brief move up to middleweight. This is a short notice fight for Krause, and we are truly shocked at this price. We understand Krause can handle himself on the ground, and the longer this fight stays standing the better for him, but with the level of submission and grappling threats Silva possesses, in a fight we believe will end up on the ground, we cannot ignore this price. This opened Silva +160 earlier in the week and we would have made this a much bigger wager at that price, but there is still value here. Silva by submission.

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LOST - Take Modestas Bukauskas over Jimmy Crute (8:10p.m., Saturday, October 17th)

Next up, we have a light heavyweight matchup between Jimmy Crute (11-1) and Modestas Bukauskas (11-2). Here is another spot where we will look to fade the public narrative and hype. Jimmy Crute is becoming a fan favorite and it is not hard to see why. He has had 5 fights under the UFC umbrella, and holds a 4-1 record with none of them making it to the scorecards. He has 2 wins by submission, 2 wins by knockout, and 1 loss by submission. He is fun to watch! Bukauskas on the other hand is a tough Lithuanian, quietly enjoying a 7-fight winning streak and isn't respected or appreciated by many - including the oddsmakers (or is he?). This is a clear fight the public will be all over Crute and setting him in the -300 range creates the perfect enticing parlay piece. All we can tell you is Bukauskas is a live dog, and that +255 is absurdly high. He is light on his feet, moves well and has some very nice kicks which could chew up Crute's lead leg. Crute will land shots, but Modestas has a solid chin and should be able to eat them. We expect to see a motivated Bukauskas and one that will finally make himself known to the world.

Manchester has lost Kevin De Bruyne to injury. So now everyone on this team is ready to step up and fill the gap. Arsenal has a big name. But they have been a mediocre EPL squad for most of the past few years. City has gotten off to a slow start to the EPL season. But they were the runners up last year and I think they are even better this year. They are better than Liverpool. They haven't proven it yet. But they will. And they aren't going to lose or draw against this floppy Arsenal side.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

Doosan has the edge in pitching tonight as Choi Won-joon is 10-1 on the season with a 3.89 E.R.A. His only loss came against Kiwoom and expect him to make that right on Saturday morning. His opponent has been blasted three straight starts giving up 14 runs in just under 14 innings of work. Kowoom winning last night gives them some room to avoid the 4/5 matchup and thus it makes this game much more important to Doosan.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

We have the same two starting pitchers we saw face off in Game 1 and this time we're betting the hitters will have the advantage. It took a couple of games for the Astros to start hitting the ball where they ain't, so to speak. They've been smashing liners the entire series but spent the first three games hitting the ball right at Tampa Bay defenders or watching the Rays make defensive gem after defensive gem. Blake Snell has a 1.60 WHIP in his last two playoff starts and with Houston finally hitting the ball in the right places we're betting the Astros score a few runs. Tampa Bay ranks 4th and 6th in the league against left-handers in wRC+ and wOBA, respectively and they've seen Framber Valdez, having faced the southpaw in Game 1. I expect both teams to score their share of runs. I'm playing the Over between the Astros & Rays on Friday.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

We are taking Rahm on Friday as we expect jet lag to catch up to Tyrrell Hatton on Friday. Hatton comes off a win at the European Tour's BMW PGA Championship in England on Sunday and flew directly to Las Vegas early in the week for this event. Hatton comes off a seven under 65 on Thursday in just his second start this season on the PGA Tour after missing the Cut at the US Open. Many are saying the course at Shadow Creek is a great preview for August next month, which is an event Hatton has not seen much success, having played only three times with a missed Cut, a T44 and a T56, though he did not play in the Masters last season. For Rahm, the World's number 2 ranked player, he is also coming off a great round shooting a five under 67. This is Rahm's first event back since a T23 at the US Open, Rahm won two events last season with eight Top Ten's making 14 of 15 Cuts. Rahm has a longer history of success than Hatton as we do not see the Englishman replicating Thursday's round on Friday.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

Kia is not going to make the playoffs this year and the writing is on the wall. They will just play out the string of games, as the top 5 teams in the KBO standing are all but certain. LG is in a battle for the number two seed and they need to hold onto that. They have the right person on the mound tonight in Casey Kelly, as he is 2-0 against Kia this season with a 1.38 E.R.A. Drew Gagnon has an 11.25 E.R.A. against LG. The Twins are 8-4 against Kia this season and getting them at this price is too good to pass up.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

Los Angeles went off in the first inning in last night's game and scored 11 runs which is the most in one inning in postseason history. You could see the Dodgers offense was coming alive in game 2 when they scored 7 runs in the final three innings of that contest and I think they are going to keep that going in game 4. It's going to be a tall task for Bryse Wilson who is getting the start for the Braves seeing how he hasn't pitched in a game since September 27th, and now he gets to face the best offense in baseball. The Braves had to extend multiple pitchers in last night's game and they may have to do that as well with Wilson if he gets into trouble early to save their better arms for the rest of the series. Clayton Kershaw is going to be on the mound for LA and he isn't going to be 100%. He was scheduled to pitch game 2 but was scratched due to back spasms and there are no easy outs in Atlanta's lineup. I think the offenses win out in this one to push this game over.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

The Rays have posted a 4-1 record in their last five playoff games and they have gone an excellent 7-1 in their last eight playoff games where they were listed as the favorite. They have also won four of their last five where they faced a team with a losing record and they are 5-2 in their last seven versus a team from the AL West Division. The Astros, on the other hand, have struggled a bit in the spot they are in here tonight as they have gone just 2-4 in their last six games versus a team with a winning % of .600 or higher and they have that same 2-4 record in their last six versus a team from the AL East. They have also lost four of their last six ALCS games and they are an awful 7-16 in their last 23 where they were listed as an underdog. Throw in the fact that the Rays are an impressive 53-23 in their last 76 where they were listed as the favorite and we’re going to lay the price with them here to get the win in San Diego on Thursday night, closing out the Astros and the ALCS in the process.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter