UFC Fight Night: Felder vs Dos Anjos *The leans below will not count to my stats here in this thread. Follow or fade, it's up to you! 
WON - Take
Tony Gravely over Geraldo de Freitas (4:35p.m., Saturday, November 14th)
In an early preliminary matchup, we have a bout between bantamweights Geraldo de Freitas Jr. and Tony Gravely. There is not too much to break down here. Both seem as though they are good wrestlers and opt to work the takedown but there is a huge difference in abilities here and do not get that twisted. Gravely is the better wrestler, and it is not even close. He has the higher-level set-ups and entries, is far stronger and more explosive, and has wrestled at a much higher competition level and standard. Gravely also does very well when it comes to maintaining top control and posturing up to land some damage or pass to more dominant positions. We think Gravely will dominate the wrestling, be much more committed to the approach than de Freitas and secure an easy win. We do have a little concern about his standup so we will not be going big here, but we see clear value on Tony.
CANCELLED - Take
Louis Smolka over Jose Quinonez (5:25p.m., Saturday, November 14th)
We have more bantamweight prelim action as Louis Smolka takes on Jose Quinonez. This is a remarkably interesting fight from a style's perspective. Smolka is a very high-level grappler who can jump on submissions and lock them up as soon as you give him that opportunity. He has had some ups and downs in the UFC due to his mindset which has not always been the strongest. He is a decent striker, and can hurt you, but there's no doubt he is always looking to get this one to the ground where he thrives within the scrambles with his sneaky transitions and jiu-jitsu game. He creates space very well and sets up opportunities for himself constantly. While Smolka's UFC record is nothing to write home about, the UFC have done him no favors. He has fought tough competition and many now-ranked opponents. Jose Quinonez on the other hand is a rangy southpaw and will engage in grappling from time to time. He is beat the opponents he should have, but whenever he has a step up in competition it almost seems as though the lights are a little too bright for him. He also has questionable fight IQ. To the point where we absolutely think he will look for a takedown here and there against Smolka - and that would be an extremely bad decision in our opinion. This is a close fight, but we cannot help but think that no matter how this plays out, it will end with Smolka's hand getting raised whether by submission or decision. This is a step down for Smolka, and he will feel somewhat disrespected in this spot. Give us Smolka as the small favorite.
WON - Take
Alex Morono over Rhys McKee (5:50p.m., Saturday, November 14th)
In a welterweight matchup we have a bout between Alex Morono and Rhys McKee. We must be honest - we do not think Rhys McKee is a UFC caliber fighter, and this price confuses us a little bit. McKee debuted against Chimaev which felt like a cruel joke. He was absolutely demolished in that bout and showed us absolutely nothing. When going back and watching tape on McKee, he does utilize his range well, but he is very hittable and chinny, and we honestly do not see much upside in him at all. He does not flow like a natural mixed martial artist. It is hard to explain, but you know it when you see it. He will be facing off against Alex Morono. Morono is an awkward fighter and a Black Belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. He has an off-timing striking approach which is especially useful in mixed martial arts as it allows you certain angles and entries which you do not usually see. He is more than happy to stand in the pocket and trade, and assuming he can get inside on the ranger McKee we do not see him having many issues here. McKee is tough, but toughness will only get you so far. Whoever loses this bout should be cut from the UFC.
WON - Take
Ashley Yoder over Miranda Granger (6:20p.m., Saturday, November 14th)
In the featured prelim of the night, we have a women's strawweight bout between Ashley Yoder and Miranda Granger. Honestly, this is one of those nights where there is not much to break down. Yoder has not impressed much in the UFC so far, but we will say she has fought some decent level competition. Yoder is a Brown Belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and her grappling skills and style does translate well to MMA when and if she decides to commit to that approach. The issue is that is a big if. Sometimes she does not show up and seems as though she is just looking for a paycheque. She will be facing off against Miranda Granger, who is also a good grappler in her own right. She works well from her back and can lock in submissions with ease. Granger will take a lot of chances, but that can also be her undoing. Yoder will probably be able to land some takedowns in this one, but Granger will just as likely be able to catch her in a submission. This is a minute-by-minute toss up with no clear winner. This could go either way in a true 50/50 bout, and we will always take +135 on a 50% proposition. Plug your nose for this one.
WON - Take
Sean Strickland over Brendan Allen (6:40p.m., Saturday, November 14th)
What a fun fight this will be, as we have a catchweight matchup between Brendan Allen and Sean Strickland. This will be a short notice fight for Sean who is coming off a decisive victory over Jack Marshman just a couple of weeks ago. Strickland took some time off and did not look like he lost a step in that performance. His striking was on point, timing was down, cardio was solid and had his confident swagger as always. His opponent Brendan Allen is a very well-rounded fighter with a Black Belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Allen has a ton of talent, and skills but what makes him difficult to deal with is his undeniable toughness. The issue with Allen at times can be his inexperience against top level opponents. He will sometimes try to overwhelm at times where he should be retreating and against someone like Strickland, that could get you in a ton of trouble, fast. Strickland is being disrespected by the oddsmakers here in our opinion. He has 3 losses in the UFC but all against elite level opponents (Ponzi, Dos Santos and Kamaru Usman). He is the more experienced fighter; he throws with higher volume and is generally better in most areas. This will be a great fight and it could be very back and forth, but we must take the value at plus money on the man we believe should be favored in the -150 range or so.
WON - Take
Rafael Dos Anjos over Paul Felder (8:25p.m., Saturday, November 14th)
For the main event of the evening, we have a lightweight matchup between Paul Felder and former champion, Rafael Dos Anjos. Let us start off by talking about RDA. He debuted in the UFC back in 2008 and evolved with the times extremely well. He is managed to withstand the test of time and his ability to fight through the years really speaks to his professionalism, dedication, and overall talent. He holds a 4th-degree black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and is very well rounded in all aspects of MMA. He has crisp, high-volume striking, good movement, high level octagon IQ and solid defense to go along with his well-versed grappling. The issue with Dos Anjos is he does seem to be falling off somewhat at 36 years of age. He is now 4-6 in his last 10 bouts, but we will acknowledge the level of competition he has faced has been nothing short of stellar. He will be facing off against late replacement opponent, Paul Felder - who is coming into this fight with only 5 days' notice. Felder is as tough as they come - agreeing to take this fight with such little time to prepare against an elite opponent proves that much. Felder is also on the tail end of his career, now 35 years of age and this is an important fight for him in terms of what we will see next. We believe this matchup is simple to break down. We think it will remain interesting while on the feet where both fighters have equalizers. Dos Anjos will be able to win minutes with his volume and movement, while Felder will be able to pressure and stalk RDA and always can land power combinations or deliver a devastating blow. RDA will need to be patient in his approach, utilize his smarts and look to ground Felder to the canvas as the fight moves on. If it gets to the mat, there is a clear advantage for Dos Anjos. Great matchup here, but one where we think there is a clear skill discrepancy - couple that with the fact that this is short notice for Paul and he is probably doing this more for the company as a favor to secure his job as an announcer once he retires, we like the Brazilian. The price seems high, but one could argue this should be priced closer to -300, especially if RDA is able to utilize his grappling.
