Topic: FADE ME! - (46W - 33L) (+24.05 UNITS) FREE Daily Betting Tips - Startup Thread - page 30. (Read 12690 times)

Money has came in on Bowling Green and I agree with this move as they look to be the better of these two teams overall. BGSU is a veteran group that returns four of it's top five guys from last year all of who are upperclassmen. I am looking to back more experienced teams early on this year due to all the chaos with Covid-19. This is a team that started out the season last year with a 17-5 record and at times were ranked in the top 100 at Kenpom.

Appalachian State is a program that's not been ranked better than 175th to end a season at Kenpom in the past decade including posting just one winning season since 2011. They are currently ranked 186th but I am not seeing that as they lost 3 of their top 5 guys from last season to graduation.

Play Bowling Green in this one.

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In the main event we have a light heavyweight matchup between Anthony Smith and Devin Clark. This was originally scheduled to be the co-main event but has since been bumped up as Curtis Blaydes tested positive for Covid19. First, let us say - Anthony Smith is as tough as they come, and has been in some absolute wars! He is only 32 years of age, but fight years are a vastly different metric as this will be Smith's 50th professional fight. That is a lot of fights! Lately Smith has struggled and there is no denying it. He fought for the UFC title against Jon Jones but has since lost 3 out of his last 4, including picking his teeth off the canvas when he received an absolute beat down from Glover Teixeira. From a technical standpoint, Smith possesses a good jab and works well from range as he sets up his kill shots. He also possesses some impressive power and will hit you with everything he has including elbows and knees. The major area of concern as of late for Smith is his conditioning. This is something that will need to be addressed and managed well as Clark is the type of opponent that will look to exploit that from the beginning. Devin Clark has been looking better and better in the UFC and showed some real grit and determination in his fight against Alonzo Menefield. Clark has a very solid wrestling game and when he commits to it, he can be a problem. He will have to be careful here though as Smith has a very sneaky ground game and with his long limbs, he can absolutely lock something up from bottom here. There does seem at first glance to be an easy path to victory for Clark - just wrestle from the first bell and zap that energy of Smith until his power and speed are nulled. Not so fast. This is an enormous jump in competition level for Clark and smith has literally been fighting the best in the world for the past 5 years. The narrative of Smith's decline, and his recent performances is allowing us to jump on an incredibly low stock price. If these guys fought a few years ago, we would have seen Smith up in the -300 range and we honestly don't feel much has changed apart from public perception and that's the exact opportunity we look to take advantage of. We expect Smith to keep this fight standing long enough at times where he can pick apart Clark and land some big shots, forcing desperation shots which could end in a submission victory for Smith, or some ground-and-pound. While Clark can wrestle - do not get it twisted - he is not a cardio machine either. This could get ugly, and we will take the "Lion Heart" here which presents huge value.

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We won't be the only ones with the Wolf Pack this week. They'll aim for revenge after Hawaii ran-up the score in a 54-3 humiliation of Nevada last season. The Pack haven't had any issues on the islands and will face a UH team that was completely out-classed last week against Boise State. While the final of 40-32 says Hawaii covered, it was about as misleading as it gets. Hawaii trailed 40-17 in the third quarter when Boise pretty much called off the dogs. The Warriors have been out-scored 47-3 in the first half of their last two games, including a 28-0 deficit to SDSU. Unlike the Aztecs and Broncos, I doubt Nevada calls off the dogs, so to speak, and the line is quite fair if you like the favorite. Wolf Pack QB Carson Strong is taking care of the pigskin with 14 TDP and only 2 INTs this season. The Pack are clicking on both sides of the line of scrimmage and we'll back them here. I'm laying the points with Nevada on Saturday.

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I have Villanova winning this game by 15+ points against Virginia Tech as I believe they are hands-down the superior team in this matchup especially at this point in the season. Virginia Tech was out-rebounded by Radford in their only game this season and they allowed Radford to shoot 35% against them from beyond the arc and 40% against them overall. You can expect Villanova to put up a big number against this Virginia Tech team Saturday night after shooting 48% against Arizona State and putting up 83 points against them despite shooting just 33% as a team from beyond the arc. Villanova out-rebounded Arizona State by 17 in that 9-point victory and you can expect them to dominate the boards against this Virginia Tech team. Villanova also has the advantage of playing two quality teams to start the season while Virginia Tech has only played Radford. Villanova held Boston College to shooting just 31% against them from beyond the arc and Arizona State to shooting just 36% against them from beyond the arc. Villanova has shot 49.2% as a team so far this season and you can expect their perimeter shooting percentage to go up in this game against Virginia Tech. Villanova has taken very good care of the basketball with just 8 turnovers against Boston College and 11 turnovers against Arizona State. So play Villanova ATS.

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Kansas State has been a fraud of late with a terrible offense that has struggled to score points. They have quarterback issues with Will Howard getting pulled last week in their 45-0 loss to Iowa State. The Wildcats are getting outgained by more than 100 yards. And if Baylor does not help them, I see them winning this game by double digits. Baylor has been a tough luck loser this year with all 5 losses 11 points or less. Kansas State has not been able to stop teams rushing the football on the road. Baylor has the better quarterback, and they are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played during the month of November. Teams have figured out how to stop Kansas State, but the oddsmakers have not caught up to how bad they are on offense yet.

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The Hawkeyes have righted the ship, winning 3 straight games in blowout fashion. Nebraska is terrible on both sides of the ball, and I do not see things getting any better in this game. They cannot stop the run, and they are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog. Iowa has won 5 straight in this series, and winning their games by an average of 30 points is just hard to overlook. Penn State was just as desperate last week against Iowa and they got killed. Nebraska has quarterback issues, and whoever gets the start will struggle to move the football against this Iowa defense. Nebraska is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games. Iowa is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record.

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I think the wrong team is favored in this one. Iowa State has been the better of these two teams so far this season. The Cyclones program under head coach Matt Campbell continue to trend up as they have won 6 of their 7 conference games this season including a huge win over Oklahoma while their lone loss came by 3 points on the road at Oklahoma State. ISU beat Texas last season and they are coming off their best game this season beating Kansas State 45-0 last week.

Texas is 4-2 in conference play in 2020 and two of those wins were in overtime and both came in games I thought they should have lost. The same thing holds true in the Longhorns last game as they held on to beat West Virginia 17-13 in a game that could have went either way. Overall I don't like the direction of this Texas program and think they actually should be a field goal underdog in this one.

Play Iowa State in this one.

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Cruz Azul is trending 'Under' games cashing 4 out 5 and the last time these two clubs met UANL beat Cruz Azul 2-0 and that game went 'Under' the total. Tonight I see another UANL victory and another playoff match that stays 'Under'.

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This is a game that Liberty could win Outright. Remember, we are 1-0 to start the College Ball year with Arkansas winning their last contest by 80 points - yes, 80 points. As per this game, Liberty won 30 games last year. This team is highly talented and they will get up to face the SEC Opponent here. Heck, this team played its first game and lost by just 13 points to Purdue. They are talented, they are hungry, they have a great program and should be an active dog today and a fantastic dog.

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Nobody can handle prosperity in the NFC East, and I look for this game to go down to the wire. Dallas had a medical emergency on Tuesday and thus they were not able to practice for a team already on a short week. Washington won the first meeting by 22 points, and having a stable quarterback in Alex Smith should allow this team to win some games down the stretch. The underdog is 28-13 ATS in the last 41 meetings between Washington and Dallas.

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Rangers are in unprecedented form with Frank Lampard at the helm. They hold an 11 point lead in the Scottish Premier League over rivals Celtic and are unbeaten in their last 20-matches. The host won 17 of those 20 matches and come off an 8-0 win over Hamilton Academical and a 4-0 win over Aberdeen, both at home. Rangers had won five straight Europa League matches until their 3-3 draw at Benfica in their last match. At home in the Europa League, Rangers have won their last two and are 14-1-4 in their last 19. For Benfica, they snapped their three-match winless run with a 1-0 win at Paredes in the Taca de Portugal. They sit in third place in the Primeira Liga, four points back of first place Sporting. The visitors are unbeaten in their last four in the Europa League, with two wins and two draws. In the last meeting between these two, a pair of own goals leveled the score before Rangers took a 3-1 lead, only to give up two goals in the final minutes including a 91stminute goal from Benfica to level the match. Heading to Scotland is a difficult task and we expect Rangers to maintain their dominance at home.

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I've had this game circled for a couple weeks. This Nebraska team is vastly underrated. They aren't going to win the Big Ten or anything. But they will probably more than double their win total from last year. Fred Hoiberg knows how to do it. He's recruited a lot of talented transfers and he is integrating them into his system seamlessly. This team has some legit players and they are going to be a handful. Nevada has lost as much talent as any team in the country over the last two years. They lost their five best players from last year (and a wealth of experience) and now Steve Alford is rebuilding. He has a 10-year contract so he can afford to be patient and he's going to stick with his freshmen and sophomores. I think that this is too big of a step up in class for Nevada and once the Huskers get used to Nevada's defensive pressure they will take the game over in the second half.

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The last time these two teams met CF America won 1-0 and that meeting went 'Under' the total and wouldn't shock me to see the same outcome tonight. America last game they drew 1-1 against Juarez and look for America to control ball possession and again this playoff game stays 'Under' the total.

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I think that this Missouri team is a little undervalued. Cuonzo Martin is a good coach and he finally has a veteran team in Columbia. The Tigers have their top six players back and nine of their top 10, including three-year starters Javon Pickett, Mark Smith and Jeremiah Tillmon. They also have their top scorers back, Dru Smith and Xavier Pinson and they added an excellent point guard in transfer Drew Buggs. If they show some improvement offensively this team will be a tough out in the SEC. Oral Roberts isn't a bad team. But they lost their two best players and three of their top five scorers. In fact, ORU only played eight guys more than 11 minutes per game last year. Four of them are gone and this is a younger team. I think they will struggle here mainly because Oral Roberts is a terrible defensive team. If Missouri is able to get easy buckets then I think they can lock down the Eagles on the other end and stretch this lead out. The fact that ORU wants to play at a fast pace will only exacerbate the talent differential. Last year the Tigers hammered a really good Northern Kentucky team by 15 and beat a very good Wofford team by 19 in the first two weeks of the season. And when Martin has had good teams he has had no problem burying the needle against overmatched opponents. Oral Roberts was extremely competitive against teams like Oklahoma State, Iowa and Creighton last year. But that was last year. This isn't the same team. Two years ago ORU lost their first three games against real competition by 34, 17 and 20 points. The year before that it was by 19, 43 and 38 points. So they can get run. And that's what I see happening here against a bigger, stronger, more experienced and more talented opponent.

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Carolina was happy to put last year behind them and they reloaded with a bunch of incoming talent this year. Roy Williams likes to play up-tempo and I expect them to reach the nineties in scoring tonight at the Dean Dome. North Carolina has gone over the posted total in 7 of their last 9 home games (1 push) when they are the favorite.

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The in-form side here is Atletico, they have been unbeaten in their last six-matches, winning five. Their one draw came in their last Champions League match, a 1-1 draw at Lokomotiv. At home they are on a four-match winning streak and unbeaten in their last 19-matches with 14 hitting 3 or fewer goals and 11 hitting 2 or fewer goals including three of their last five. They are 1-1-1 this season in the Champions League, losing 4-0 at Bayern Munich, winning 3-2 at home to Atletico, and drawing at Lokomotiv. For the visitors, they snapped their six match winless run with a 1-0 home win over Arsenal Tula. They had lost four of their previous six matches five of their last seven hitting 3 or fewer goals. This Russian side has not had much luck in the Champions League, currently on a eight-match winless run with seven of those matches hitting 3 goals or less. No question Atletico are the better side, but with Bayern Munich winning this group easily, they are holding on for second place which they hold a two point lead with two to play over Lokomotiv. A win of Atletico will make it difficult for Lokomotiv to knock them off in second place, but a draw will give Lokomotiv hope that they can qualify for the knockout stage, instead of dropping to the Europa League.

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Sunday night we cashed with the 'Under' in the FC Dallas/Portland game and this game screams the same outcome. LAFC closed the regular season with a 1-1 home draw against Portland and with LAFC still missing some major pieces I don't see this game producing many goals. Seattle last 5 league games 3 of them have gone 'Under' the total and I know these two teams played each other 3 times this year and 2 of them went 'Over' but with both teams missing key players because of COVID issues I see this game staying 'Under' the total.

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This Group is very much still up for grabs with Manchester United holding onto the top spot on six points, ahead of Leipzig only on goal difference with PSG on three points. PSG comes off a disappointing 3-2 loss at Monaco which closed their lead at the top of Ligue 1 to just two points. PSG are 1-2-0 in their last three matches, also losing at Leipzig 2-1 in early November. At home however, PSG are 4-1-0 in their last five-matches with the one loss coming against Manchester United, a 2-1 loss. In the Champions League, they have played eight straight matches they have his 3 or fewer goals. For the visitors, They are unbeaten in their last three coming off a 1-1 draw over the weekend at Frankfurt. In the Champions League, they are 1-2-0 during group play, losing 5-0 at Manchester United with two wins both came at home, 2-0 over Basasksehit and 2-1 over PSG. They got their revenge over PSG in their last Champions League match after the French champions knocked Leipzig out of last season's competition. This is the first meeting at PSG and the third in the Champions League with the competitive matches split at one apiece with both hitting 3 or fewer goals.

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No time for a lengthy write up today. Barcelona needs a bounce-back performance after falling to Atletico Madrid on the weekend. Barca is in a good spot in the Champions League, topping Group G ahead of Juventus. With Juve set to win against minnows Ferencvaros today, Barca will need these three points to remain atop the group. Kyiv has had a mixed bag of results of their last five and we see Barcelona being too much for them to handle today.

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Rennes has been shut-out in four of their last five matches while Chelsea has allowed just one goal in their last seven games across all competitions. Chelsea is a big favorite here, with good reason, as they have found the back of the net at least three times in six of their last nine games. We see another blowout here and with Rennes offensive struggles, we're figuring that Chelsea wins in a blowout to nil, cashing this bet in the process on Tuesday afternoon.

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