Pick for December 4, 2020 (FRIDAY)
Game will start on 07:00 PM EST, NCAA - College Basketball
Match: Marquette Golden Eagles - Wisconsin Badgers
[LOSS] - PICK: WISCONSIN BADGERS -3.5 POINTS for 2 UNITS (1.85 ODDS).
With all the weird and wacky stuff going on in college basketball - and all sports - right now there absolutely is no substitute for continuity and experience. And few teams are as cohesive, consistent and experienced as Wisconsin. All five starters are back from last year's team. All five are seniors. All five have had a lot of success in the Big Ten, including winning the regular season title last year. And now they are back together as one of the most static teams in the country. On the other hand we have Marquette. All they did was lose one of the best college basketball scores of the last half-century, Markus Howard. He as the nation's all-time leading scorer with 27.8 points per game and finished No. 21 in college hoops history in points. You don't just lose a guy like that and expect everything to be fine. Losing Howard would be bad enough. But that's not all they lost. Marquette lost four of its top six players and guys that were fringe role players are now being leaned on for absolutely everything. Mind you: with Howard Marquette got demolished 77-61 by Wisconsin last year. It should be just as bad this year. I know that this is a big rivalry game and that Marquette is playing at home. But there's no fans. So there really is no home court advantage and it certainly takes a lot of the bite out of the 'rivalry' aspect of this matchup. Now it's just a gym. And now it's just about the guys on the court. And Wisconsin has the much better side.
Marquette just lost by eight to a really below-average Oklahoma State team. And it wasn't even that close, with Ok. State up 12 with four minutes to play. Oklahoma State is not a tournament team and the Cowboys won despite shooting just 5-for-18 from 3-point range. If they can do that to Marquette what can the Badgers do to them?
This is also about matchups. Marquette does not matchup well with Wisconsin at all. Offensively, Marquette doesn't have anyone that can shoot. Koby McEwen is their primary guard but he's just a guy I would say is 'pretty good'. And he's not better than UW's D'Mitrick Trice. This team is going to really struggle to score points all year and they are going to try to win games by grinding teams down defensively. That's a problem because Wisconsin is used to playing that way. They play slow and methodical. And there is no defense that Marquette is going to throw at them that they haven't faced in spade in the rugged Big Ten. Freshman big Dawson Garcia and senior Theo John are going to be forced to guard Wisconsin's big men Micah Potter and Nate Reuvers. Garcia is likely to get abused and I won't be surprised to see him in foul trouble. John is a shot blocker and rim protector. But Wisconsin's bigs are both excellent 3-point shooters. Reuvers is hitting 71% from deep this year and 37% over the last three years while Potter is shooting 40% this year and 45% the last two years. They are going to be able to pull Johns (and later Jamal Cain when he has to fill in for Garcia) away from the basket.
Wisconsin just has too many answers. They are flat-out the better team. They are more talented, more experienced, better coached and more versatile on both ends of the court. The one trump card Marquette had was playing this game at home. But with no crowd that advantage is out the window. I just don't see how this game is decided by fewer than 8 points - and that's if Marquette plays well. If Marquette doesn't play well and Wisconsin does then this will be a 15-point win.
#BlackLivesMatter