Topic: FADE ME! - (46W - 33L) (+24.05 UNITS) FREE Daily Betting Tips - Startup Thread - page 29. (Read 12690 times)

This is my Big Ten Game of the Year. I am going with the Hoosiers in this one. Indiana got some terrible news this week when quarterback Michael Penix Jr. was declared out for the year with a torn ACL. This is the third year in a row that the starting quarterback has gone down for Indiana and the Hoosiers are used to playing without Penix in the lineup. Indiana is going to turn to Jack Tuttle, a transfer from Utah that completed all five of his passes in relief last week in a 27-11 win by Indiana over Maryland. I think Tuttle will be fine. Indiana has a great chance to win the Big Ten East if they can find a way to pull an upset in this game. The Hoosiers are in second place in the East and if Ohio State has one more game cancelled they will not be eligible. That would put Indiana in the Big Ten championship game. The public is all on Wisconsin in this game. They are overreacting to the injury to Penix. This is still a very good Indiana team that has a very strong defense (No. 22 in points allowed). Wisconsin had its game cancelled last week. They have not played since Nov. 21 in a loss at Northwestern as a touchdown favorite. Wisconsin has only played two games since Oct. 24 and only played three games all year! The Badgers will not be as sharp as Indiana in this game because they haven't played enough. The Hoosiers are on a 13-3 ATS run and they are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as a road underdog. Indiana is 4-0 ATS on the road and 6-0 ATS in the Big Ten. I think that Indiana is going to fight hard in this game for a chance at a championship and to show that they can win without Penix. This should be a close game and I will take the points. Play Indiana.

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All but one starter returns from a 26-4 campaign for the Bears and HC Scott Drew returned to the bench in the win over Illinois after being quarantined during their first two contests. Having said that, Gonzaga is also a championship contender but they've shown areas where they're likely to be better in the spring. In fact, if this was a February matchup, I'd probably be inclined to back the Bulldogs. Jalen Suggs isn't 100% healthy (ankle) and the team isn't crashing the glass (at least against WVU) like they'll need to next spring. Meanwhile, Baylor has been strong on the boards and on fire from the perimeter on the offensive end. The Bears will have to be ready for an aggressive Gonzaga offense early in the game but Scott Drew should have his team well prepared. When it's all said and done I expect Baylor's backcourt to be the difference in the game. I'm taking the points with Baylor on Saturday.

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We like for Fulham to play above their weight once again this weekend as they travel to Man City on Saturday morning. Fulham will be beaming with confidence coming off a 2-1 win at Leicester City, after losing their last two. The visitors are 2-3-0 in their last five matches and have not lost two matches this season by more than 2 goals. For City, they are unbeaten in their last three, but are coming off a scoreless draw in the Champions League midweek at Porto, a match that really did not mean much as City had already secured a place in the knockout stage. City are 2-1-2 in their last five. The host have dominated the head to head winning the last nine matches with Fulham last winning in 2009 at City 3-1. In the 15 matches since Fulham's last win, City have just five wins of 3 goals or more.

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As per our selection on Everton, we feel this is a bounce-back game for them as they've got just one win over their last four games. They come in off the heels of a 1-0 loss to Leeds, where they had plenty of chances but couldn't capitalize. On the season, they've scored 19 goals T5 and we expect them to take advantage of a Burnley defense that's given up 17 in 9 games. On the flip side, Burnley has scored just four times and we don't see them breaking out of their scoring slump in this one as they've been shutout in four of their past five games. Look for Everton to play an aggressive style of football in this one and expect them to score enough goals to get the win.

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Toledo dropped-off last season in the MAC but not without good reason. The Rockets had very little depth and it reared its ugly head on the defensive end of the floor. Having said that, they still whipped EMU 79-57 on March 6, the final game of the season. Toledo is much deeper this season and they've covered all four games. They're 2-2 SU with the losses to Xavier and Bradley coming by a grand total of 5 points. EMU will play just its second game of the season and while the final score in their 83-67 loss to Michigan State in their opener isn't a bad looking defeat on the surface, the fact is, the Spartans were up 16 at the half and Tom Izzo emptied his bench in the second half with 15 players seeing action. We have Toledo power rated in the top-4 in the MAC and EMU in the bottom three of the 12-team conference. With renewed focus on the defensive end, we'll back the Rockets in this spot. I'm backing Toledo on Friday.

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With all the weird and wacky stuff going on in college basketball - and all sports - right now there absolutely is no substitute for continuity and experience. And few teams are as cohesive, consistent and experienced as Wisconsin. All five starters are back from last year's team. All five are seniors. All five have had a lot of success in the Big Ten, including winning the regular season title last year. And now they are back together as one of the most static teams in the country. On the other hand we have Marquette. All they did was lose one of the best college basketball scores of the last half-century, Markus Howard. He as the nation's all-time leading scorer with 27.8 points per game and finished No. 21 in college hoops history in points. You don't just lose a guy like that and expect everything to be fine. Losing Howard would be bad enough. But that's not all they lost. Marquette lost four of its top six players and guys that were fringe role players are now being leaned on for absolutely everything. Mind you: with Howard Marquette got demolished 77-61 by Wisconsin last year. It should be just as bad this year. I know that this is a big rivalry game and that Marquette is playing at home. But there's no fans. So there really is no home court advantage and it certainly takes a lot of the bite out of the 'rivalry' aspect of this matchup. Now it's just a gym. And now it's just about the guys on the court. And Wisconsin has the much better side.

Marquette just lost by eight to a really below-average Oklahoma State team. And it wasn't even that close, with Ok. State up 12 with four minutes to play. Oklahoma State is not a tournament team and the Cowboys won despite shooting just 5-for-18 from 3-point range. If they can do that to Marquette what can the Badgers do to them?

This is also about matchups. Marquette does not matchup well with Wisconsin at all. Offensively, Marquette doesn't have anyone that can shoot. Koby McEwen is their primary guard but he's just a guy I would say is 'pretty good'. And he's not better than UW's D'Mitrick Trice. This team is going to really struggle to score points all year and they are going to try to win games by grinding teams down defensively. That's a problem because Wisconsin is used to playing that way. They play slow and methodical. And there is no defense that Marquette is going to throw at them that they haven't faced in spade in the rugged Big Ten. Freshman big Dawson Garcia and senior Theo John are going to be forced to guard Wisconsin's big men Micah Potter and Nate Reuvers. Garcia is likely to get abused and I won't be surprised to see him in foul trouble. John is a shot blocker and rim protector. But Wisconsin's bigs are both excellent 3-point shooters. Reuvers is hitting 71% from deep this year and 37% over the last three years while Potter is shooting 40% this year and 45% the last two years. They are going to be able to pull Johns (and later Jamal Cain when he has to fill in for Garcia) away from the basket.

Wisconsin just has too many answers. They are flat-out the better team. They are more talented, more experienced, better coached and more versatile on both ends of the court. The one trump card Marquette had was playing this game at home. But with no crowd that advantage is out the window. I just don't see how this game is decided by fewer than 8 points - and that's if Marquette plays well. If Marquette doesn't play well and Wisconsin does then this will be a 15-point win.

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Drake has had to retool after losing their big 7'0 footer who transferred. But they have shown to this point at least that they are capable of making the necessary adjustments. Nebraska-Omaha returns three starters, but they have struggled to break in two new guards in the backcourt and I don't see that fixing itself on the road tonight. The Mavericks are a miserable 5-15-1 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Bulldogs are 15-6 ATS after two consecutive non-conference games and they have developed a nice homecourt advantage and are on a 39-17-2 ATS run in Des Moines. Drake takes care of business.

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Tonight the Hokies will welcome the Keydets of VMI and tonight I smell tons of offense being produced. The Keydets have won 2 out 3 games to start the season but one thing I see tonight is that the Hokies will be able to score points tonight. VMI gave up 86 points to Penn St and the Hokies last 3 games all 3 of them have gone 'Over' the total. If Va Tech can hit the open 'J' tonight and the 3 ball goes in early I see them controlling the pace and this total flies 'Over'. A little shocked that this total has been dropping all morning long as this total was 141 when I woke up early this morning. Virginia Tech is 4-1 O/U following a ATS win and the Hokies are 7-3-1 O/U in their last 11 home games.

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Per your selection on the over in this matchup, both teams need all three points in order to give them a better shot at qualifying for the next round. We envision a wide-open game with plenty of chances and we see this game ending 2-1 or better. Napoli has scored 6 goals in their last two games, and AZ is coming off a 2-1 win in their domestic league. Both teams will have a full complement of players to choose from and we expect a very strong and attacking XI for both squads. This is a great price and a great total.

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We like the over here as Leicester has already secured a place in the knockout rounds as they sit on 10 points leading second place Sporting Braga by three. Because of this and Leicester's 2-1 loss to Fulham at home over the weekend, expect Brendan Rogers to shake things up a bit today. Leicester are winless in their last three, all hitting 3 or more goals and five of their last six overall have also hit 3 or more goals. Away from home, Leicester are 3-1-1 in their last five, but have a loss and a draw in their last two, though their last four have all hit 3 or more goals. In the Europa League, Leicester are unbeaten in their last four with all four hitting three or more goals including their 3-3 draw at Sporting Braga last time out. For Zorya, they sit bottom of Group G on three points, level with ARK Athens, but behind on head to head. They are unbeaten in their last three, winning back to back matches, both 3-0 score lines. Three of their last four overall have hit 3 or more goals, though they are winless in their last three at home. Three of their last four at home have all hit 3 or more goals as well. Zorya are regulars to the Europa League, while Leicester are making their first appearance in 20 years. The host have not seen much success in the competition, with just two wins in their last eight matches, though they are coming off a 3-0 win at AEK Athens. Additionally, their last six have all hit 3 or more goals in the Europa League. This is a great opportunity for Zorya to catch Leicester on the back foot, while a fresh Leicester side with a mix of bench and second stringers could be out to impress. Because of these two factors we expect this to easily cover.

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Illinois is a good basketball team that has not yet been tested. Baylor is a great team with a Final Four or bust mentality. All but one starter returns from a 26-4 campaign for the Bears. The Illini have a quality guard -- Baylor has three quality guards. Illinois is decent but can be had on the glass by strong interior teams -- Baylor fits the bill. The Bears will also attempt to extend their neutral court run to 7-0 ATS! And if that's not enough, HC Scott Drew returns to the team today after missing the first two games while being quarantined. Baylor has Gonzaga on Saturday but I'm betting Drew's return to the bench will help keep the Bears focused on the task at-hand. I'm laying the points with Baylor on Wednesday.

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We roll with Providence here as we like Ed Cooley's kids here. Remember, Cooley's team just beat Davidson as they were up 28-7 in that game but they didn't close that game well but still ended up winning that game. That Davidson team is 1-2 but our metrics point to Davidson being a fantastic team who just lost to Texas by a bucket and Providence by about a bucket. That win that Providence has over Davidson is impressive and Providence laid an egg against Indiana earlier this year just 2 games ago. Now, they get to face another Power 5 team and they will up for it. Alabama is a team I love as a fan - but they struggled against UNLV taking 40 three pointers and making just 15 - that's not great. Providence is extremely well coached and have and are led by 6 upperclassmen. I think this is a dangerous game for Alabama and we think that Providence has a great shot at winning Outright.

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Wrong. Team. Favored. Rhode Island is absolutely legit. They probably should be 4-0 right now. And if they were this line would be Rams -6. The Rams lost by six to Arizona State and by 5 to Boston College and they were either tied or had the lead in the second half of both. Both of those teams are better than Seton Hall. The Pirates are 1-1 on the season with a deceptively close loss at Louisville. The Pirates lost Myles Powell and Quincy McKnight from last year's team. They aren't better off and you don't just lose a guy like Powell and come back just as strong the next year. They have Sandro Mamukelashvili but that's really it. The Pirates can still defend but they can't score. And their guards are nowhere near as good as Rhode Island's. The Mitchell Bros. and Antwan Walker are big enough to compete with the Pirates in the post. And Fatts Russell, Jalen Carey and Jeremy Sheppard are a much better guard trio than anything the Pirates are packing. The Pirates are coming off a blowout win over Rick Pitino's rebuilt squad and they could get caught looking ahead to a higher profile game with Oregon later this week. Seton Hall just got out of a 14-day quarantine period last week and I just don't think they are going to be very sharp at the moment. Rhode Island has already gone toe-to-toe with better competition than Seton Hall on a neutral court. Now the Rams are at home and they are ready for a statement win. On top of all that, nearly 90 percent of the betting action is coming down on the Pirates and the line is barely moving. Rhode Island will win this one by 5-7 points.

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As per our selection on Manchester United in this contest, we believe they are in great form and as they come off a come from behind 3-2 win against Southampton, they should have plenty of confidence and motivation to do well here against a slightly overrated PSG squad. United has already beaten PSG this CL campaign and we expect a similar result at home. United know they can ill afford to lose this contest as that would put first place in the group in jeopardy. Instead, we expect United to come out strong, weather the early pressure from PSG, and then hit them on the counter as they've done in the past. United has just one home loss across five games while PSG has lost two consecutive games away from the Parc De Princes. United wins this game 2-1.

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UNLV sucks. North Carolina spotted them five scoreless minutes and a 13-0 lead and they still lost by 27 points. Not great! Add on top of that a 13-point home loss to Montana State and things are really bad for the Rebels. They aren't going to get any better for them here. I think that this is a pretty good Alabama team. They play fast and they shoot a ton of 3's and when they get going they can turn people's lights out. The Crimson Tide got rolled by Stanford last night. But now they are stepping way down in competition and I think that they will take some of that frustration out on a clearly struggling UNLV team. Nate Oates is a really solid coach and this is an experienced Alabama team that has four seniors and a junior among their top seven guys. Alabama is going to shoot better than 36% from the field and 24% from 3-point range. They were in the Top 5 in the country in scoring last year and hit a solid 35% from deep. I think they are able to bury the needle here.

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UNLV sucks. North Carolina spotted them five scoreless minutes and a 13-0 lead and they still lost by 27 points. Not great! Add on top of that a 13-point home loss to Montana State and things are really bad for the Rebels. They aren't going to get any better for them here. I think that this is a pretty good Alabama team. They play fast and they shoot a ton of 3's and when they get going they can turn people's lights out. The Crimson Tide got rolled by Stanford last night. But now they are stepping way down in competition and I think that they will take some of that frustration out on a clearly struggling UNLV team. Nate Oates is a really solid coach and this is an experienced Alabama team that has four seniors and a junior among their top seven guys. Alabama is going to shoot better than 36% from the field and 24% from 3-point range. They were in the Top 5 in the country in scoring last year and hit a solid 35% from deep. I think they are able to bury the needle here.

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After a 7-25 season, Nebraska has a lot of work to do to get back even to .500. Fred Hoiberg is a proven college coach but his principles have come into question early in Nebraska. Last season the Cornhuskers were limited on offense and thus far there's been a real considered effort to point the ball inside to score in the paint. Though the competition has not been stellar, the Huskers are playing with tremendous defensive intensity, generating over 20 turnovers a game. Since they are committing less than 10 per contest themselves, they do that tonight and Nebraska could have a 10-point edge on miscues alone. South Dakota has already lost by 23 to Colorado and 16 to Drake and figures to be in for another long night. Finally, favorites like Nebraska in their first five games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 10+ losses in last 12 games, who won 20% to 40% of all contests the prior season, playing a team that had a winning record last year, are 32-8 ATS.

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Toledo might only be 1-2, but the losses were at Bradley by two and at Xavier by three. Stepping down in class to face Cleveland State should be a big benefit for their home opener. The Rockets returned three starters and have four legitimate scorers they can depend on. The Vikings are coming off an 11-21 season and it's been five seasons since they smelled the rarified air of .500. Though Cleveland State also has three starters in the fold, finding dependable production is their No. 1 problem. This is also the Vikings' first contest, which figures to work against them. Make it Toledo by 14.

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Nevada won its first two games, but I believe this to be a short sample size that will be seen as smoke and mirrors a bit later in the season. Pacific has the majority of its roster back from a group that won 23 games last year. The Wolf Pack graduated a ton of talent from a season ago, and they don't have a main contributer back from last year's team. I think the home team is the weaker of the two in tonight's match-up and should be the underdog. That gives us big value tonight. Pacific is coming off a very good season for the program under Damon Stoudamire, and the former NBA point guard has his hoops program ready for another strong season. Pacific was one of the deeper teams in the country in '19-20, and they again will have a very balanced and capable core. The Mountain West is going to have a pretty poor season for its conference, and Nevada taking a step back this year is going to be a strong representation of that outlook. Pacific won its opener, and they keep up its winning ways with a strong result in Reno. We had 7-U on the Tigers last Friday in a game that was PPD. However we find another great value spot with them here. Pacific by nine, 71-62.

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I am looking for a very high scoring game and I think that these two teams will combine for over 160 points. North Carolina always plays at a fast pace. This is a team that likes to run and gun. They have some very talented guards that want to get out in the open floor. I think that they will be able to do that against a UNLV team that allowed 91 points in its opening game to Montana State! The Rebels don't have the size on the inside to keep UNC out of the paint and I think that North Carolina is going to be able to get good shots all night. The 'over' is 7-3 when the Tar Heels face a team that is below .500 and the 'over' is 11-5 when UNLV plays after a double-digit home loss. The 'over' is 19-7 in UNLV's last 26 games after a loss. Take the 'over' in this one.

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