Topic: FAIRLAY - SPORTS BETTING for experts - highest liquidity, provably best odds - page 84. (Read 135445 times)

Some of the requests were about Augur that is a popular topic these days, so there are now few betting markets that could be especially interesting for those of you already owning their Reputation tokens.

It is still not confirmed when will Augur have its live release so you can place bet that it will be before or after the March 1st next year: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-augur-be-launched-till-march-1st-2016-1/

At the moment, Gatecoin has a REPBTC price at 0.00455, so if you think that the Augur’s reputation token (REP) price will be at least 0.005 BTC on February 15th 2016. Or not: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-augurs-rep-price-be-above-0-005-btc-on-february-15th-2016-1/

And, as Augur will probably be launched after the February 15th, and you have ideas that the price will go up and down in the months following its release, you have a market on its value on January 1st 2017. If you are sure it will be above or under 0.005 on that date, you have a betting market here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-augurs-rep-price-be-above-0-005-btc-on-january-1st-2017/

Anyway, Augur is an interesting topic, so some additional markets about the value of the investment in it are going to be released as well. And if you want to see some other markets, you can send your requests here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/prediction-markets-on-fairlay-1237290

A short update. We do receive a lot of requests for new Prediciton Markets. However we were often unable to put them live for several reasons.

Most of the time it would have taken too much time to read into the proposed topics, at other times we were just too too late, the proposed description lacked the necessary quality to be put on our site  or there were no volume on the market.  We therefore have given special rights to one user, who is very passionate about prediction markets.  
If you like a new interesting non-sports market to be created and/or filled with with orders, please ask for it in this thread: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/prediction-markets-on-fairlay-1237290

@debuni You are absolutely right to complain here. Bets placed shortly before our outage 36 hours ago are not resolved yet.  This will be fixed shortly. In the future you can expect over 97% of your bets to be graded within 1-3 hours after the match has finished.

This is not how it works. We do of course not resolve events manually - it is all done automatically. However - if a user sends us an concrete notice than we usually can at least give concrete information about the status and in some cases detect errors and fix them. Since you privately send us your username and it seems that you indeed are suffering from an failure of our system. The last 15 bets of you are resolved (as they should) but a couple of bets from yesterday are not resolved and this should clearly not happen. My first guess is that they should have been resolved during the connection trouble and something got wrong when the connection was established again. However - we have to verify this and fix it. We apologize for the trouble and the potentially missed bets.

Why should I give you username? Could you just check your DB and resolve all unresolved predictions for all of your users?

If you would name us a user account we could check the status of your bets.
In general sport bets are resolved 1-3h after the match. In some cases (<3%) it takes up to 24h. Refund of canceled bets also takes 24h. This might not be the quickest in the industry but we have for sure the best odds on average and we have reliable high liquidity. 

Ok, My bankroll is still blocked and you are still failing to grade prediction on time. So I wrote in my Tips thread:

I'm withdrawing my support from FairLay till they get their service in hands!
Why: I'm usually betting with high percentage of my bankroll and I'm making a turnover 2-5 times on my whole bank during busy weekend times and 1-2 times during working days. And they have issues with grading pick, so for example my whole bankroll was blocked today in unresolved prediction from their side for games finished 2-24!+ hours ago. So to summarize:
 - Not grading prediction on time and this cost me over 80% of bankroll gain today, as yesterday was a bad day, but today was perfect one. And my predictions are still unresolved, my money blocked and I still cannot bet.
 - Total lack of support. I wrote in their thread many hours ago about that. And their site was even dead in the morning as they are using Pinnacle feed not only for odds but EVEN for games names and leagues.

Because your lack of support and reaction and failing to grade prediction on time cost me enough.

You cannot call this a REAL SERVICE!

P.S. And to verify my words about missed 80% GROSS GAIN on my bankroll, you could check my Tips Thread will all picks from today which I did not manage to bet bet BECAUSE of your fail to grade predictions on time and my blocked bankroll.

Yes, you price feed is OK. BUT MY WHOLE AMOUNT IS BLOCKED of unresolved predictions.... from many many hours. It's just not serious. Especially during the weened action.

We are having connectivity issues right now. They should be resolved shortly.

Seems your Pinnacle feed is down and so all of your sports are without "default odds". Also because of that almost whole sports section is empty as even event names...

That seems perfectly fine to me. You had 0.1 and placed two bets for a total of 0.08. However - the "matched amount" are only: 30mBTC + 43.5mBTC. So that is exactly 100 - 30 - 43.5 = 26.5 mBTC. (You said you have 27).

Note that we always show the liability of an bet - regardless of back and lay - so the conversion that you described is already done by our system and thus all amounts are correct. We would really regret to see you go - lets us know what we should improve! Otherways: have fun at Pinny and hopefully see you later again!

Hey sbrzol,

you math is right but actually for market makers we have different rules. We have discussed them early in this thread: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.12483830
Basically they can make lots of open orders as long as they have funds that cover every single order. If they would run out of funds all remaining orders of a market maker would automatically be canceled.

If you are interested in becoming a market maker and using our API: fairlay.com/api we are happy to provide you with more details. However - from a user perspective: every bet is 100% covered with Bitcoins that have been deposited in advanced.

that is glad to hear that. i just have uneasy feeling when i see such things. although the $$ is not a lot but still it is worth something.

While I was waiting for my withdrawal that took 40 hours  i did some math.

Somebody had a very good week and won  79 BTC  = $20.000  



It was very suspicious that there is lot liability on the markets.  

Basketball (at 2015-10-13 20:40 CET  ) :   1180 market  :  back side: 4589.986; BTC  lay side: 4896.957 BTC
Only basketball :  lay + back : 9487 BTC !!!

If you place bets on both side (lay, back) on the same market that is unmatched then fairly subtract both amount (back amount and lay liability) from your account.  
At betfair if you place $10 on back side and $10 on lay side (liability) then your account balance will decrease only $10.  (Initial account balance 271.06,  after unmatched bets : 261.06)



At fairlay if you place 10 mbtc on back side and 10 mbtc on lay side (liability) then your account balance will decrease 10+10=20 mbtc.  (Initial account balance 27.36,  after unmatched bets : 7.36)



So we have to add lay + back side at fairlay to get  how much BTC is in the system.  

Soccer market is much larger which means that somebody who makes the liability had to deposit at least 35.000 BTC to cover/offer all market .
So you play against fairlay and not other bettors.  (Fairlay did not tell this to you.)
So if somebody won 79 BTC in one week and you have to wait 40 hours for your withdrawal then you start thinking.

Lay to back conversion is inaccurate.  and so the converted amout that is available.
For example:   1.15 lay odds  =  7.67 back odds  (and not 7.71)


if you click on 1.149 you get 7.71 and not the accurate 7.67


lay = 1 + 1 / (back - 1);



However , the conversation sometimes is accurate (near 2 or not game market? )

Liability explained

Your liability is the amount you could lose in your worst-case scenario.
When backing it's simply the stake which you place. When laying however it's the amount it will cost you if your selection wins. Either way, it is how much you are risking.

I run into another bug while testing the lay back system.  I placed back and lay side on the same market that (unfortunately) matched (i gave wrong lay price ) and now there is only 1 matched bet in my history.  My initial account balance was 0.1 BTC and now it is only 0.027 BTC. I  did not get back the cancelled 0.0435 BTC.



So I went back to pinnacle. Fairlay is very risky.

My pending cashout and pending deposit have both been resolved.  Thank you.

that sounds so scary. i hope it is not another case of mgtox. have a very bad experience with them previously and hope it will not happen again.

Ok - during writing this text it seemed that a simple restart of the Bitcoin services had fixed the problem. On the first look into our database it seems like we are in sync again: a) all deposits are detected and b) all cashout requests are currently done. Please let us know if you have an not proceeded cashout or deposit.

Hello - we are getting currently a lot of mails about missing deposits. So we currently recommend not to do any deposits although the Bitcoins are 100% safe it is very likely that they are stuck for some time.

We will use this situation to explain our security architecture. We use a cold and a hot wallet. Unlike most competitors and most exchanges we take the very conservative approach that all deposits go to the cold wallet directly. Most exchanges let user deposit to the hot wallet and only if needed forward some Bitcoin to the secure cold wallet. With this approach you can not 100% control the amount in the hot wallet. If a very large deposit comes in the hot wallet could hold a very big amount. We strictly have an internal policy that we only want an amount in our hot wallet so that we could cover a loss in the unlikely case our server gets hacked.

So on our online server there are two Bitcoin related services. One that can do automatic cashouts from our hotwallet and a second service that just monitors a watch only wallet to detect deposits (into the cold wallet). So what currently happens is that our server does not detect the transaction but the Bitcoins are nevertheless 100% save in our cold wallet.

So currently we can only apologize for the problem and assure you that we are working with high pressure to fix it. We will make an update here as soon as we know more.

- Team Fairlay   

i got it after 42 hours,  thx,  but now i have a missing 0.1 BTC deposit

Email sent. But do you realize you are wasting your clients time with this? As for example I'm making a test deposit /with desire to move my whole betting to BTC/
And if you have such a problem, is it affect your anonymous betting? As anonymous  is the way to bet with us without holding a bankroll with you. And from my point of view - a must for bets over 0.5/b and 20/bets per day.