Topic: Feb 22 to March 9 diff thread with contest included. - page 3. (Read 10502 times)
With 380 blocks to go and exchange rate at ~$270 I'd say +2% to +4% seems likely.
actual live is 0.60% at 2:55 east coast time.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=978410053
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=978410053
at 11:16 pm east coast it is +1.19%
Random speculation: ASICMINER datacenter caught fire, the company is keeping hush hush about it, and that's why the hashrate went down, AMHASH stopped paying out, and friedcat disappeared.
Wouldn't you think that if the ASICMINER farm had caught fire that the hash rate would have fallen months ago when AMHASH stopped receiving mining revenue as opposed to months later? I don't think the fact that it is related that it just came out that AMHASH has no actual current actual mining revenue around the same time the network hash rate fell dramatically Ah yes! I forgot that AMHASH said they stopped receiving the revenue a while back. Maybe it was a veeery slow fire.
Well, I guess you fried that theory.
Random speculation: ASICMINER datacenter caught fire, the company is keeping hush hush about it, and that's why the hashrate went down, AMHASH stopped paying out, and friedcat disappeared.
Wouldn't you think that if the ASICMINER farm had caught fire that the hash rate would have fallen months ago when AMHASH stopped receiving mining revenue as opposed to months later? I don't think the fact that it is related that it just came out that AMHASH has no actual current actual mining revenue around the same time the network hash rate fell dramatically It's possible this is all just good old variance, right? Right? 
no.
ghash.io was crashed and they have over 30ph in hash maybe only 25ph rolled over correctly.
that is 5ph lost which is 1.5 percent
I would also say that if the decline in the short term hash rate was caused by ghash going down then it would have been more then 1.5% of the network doing nothing. According to bicoinwisdom, the estimated next difficulty went from ~+3.8% to ~+1.8% now (bitcoinwisdom is not the best at predicting the next difficulty, however I do follow it relatively closely so it should be somewhat of a good indicator of what happened on an apples to apples basis).
(slightly off topic) - do you know what happened with ghash beyond the fact that they were DDoS'ed? I used to have my S3 there as a primary pool and it would fallover to eligius somewhat frequently, I have it pointed at eligius as a primary pool now so the downtime did not directly affect me.
Don't know why they crashed but they did. Now a big farm going down is a sudden rate drop and it does happen once in a while. A big pool also gets knocked off line while many do have rollover set up some don't. Also if you had an ant miner with only 3 pools ghash then west hash then nicehash yould could get burned.
You'd think the big mining datacenters (which comprise the majority of the network hashrate by now IIRC) would have better failover pools. I personally just have westhash ---> slush, but I'm a small time miner. Shouldn't bigger miners have at least two stable pools? Something like westhash ---> ghash ---> slush. I don't think the smaller miners will have much of an effect anymore, especially considering how spread out they are among pools.
Random speculation: ASICMINER datacenter caught fire, the company is keeping hush hush about it, and that's why the hashrate went down, AMHASH stopped paying out, and friedcat disappeared.
It's possible this is all just good old variance, right? Right?
no.
ghash.io was crashed and they have over 30ph in hash maybe only 25ph rolled over correctly.
that is 5ph lost which is 1.5 percent
I would also say that if the decline in the short term hash rate was caused by ghash going down then it would have been more then 1.5% of the network doing nothing. According to bicoinwisdom, the estimated next difficulty went from ~+3.8% to ~+1.8% now (bitcoinwisdom is not the best at predicting the next difficulty, however I do follow it relatively closely so it should be somewhat of a good indicator of what happened on an apples to apples basis).
(slightly off topic) - do you know what happened with ghash beyond the fact that they were DDoS'ed? I used to have my S3 there as a primary pool and it would fallover to eligius somewhat frequently, I have it pointed at eligius as a primary pool now so the downtime did not directly affect me.
Don't know why they crashed but they did. Now a big farm going down is a sudden rate drop and it does happen once in a while. A big pool also gets knocked off line while many do have rollover set up some don't. Also if you had an ant miner with only 3 pools ghash then west hash then nicehash yould could get burned.
It's possible this is all just good old variance, right? Right?
no.
ghash.io was crashed and they have over 30ph in hash maybe only 25ph rolled over correctly.
that is 5ph lost which is 1.5 percent
I would also say that if the decline in the short term hash rate was caused by ghash going down then it would have been more then 1.5% of the network doing nothing. According to bicoinwisdom, the estimated next difficulty went from ~+3.8% to ~+1.8% now (bitcoinwisdom is not the best at predicting the next difficulty, however I do follow it relatively closely so it should be somewhat of a good indicator of what happened on an apples to apples basis).
(slightly off topic) - do you know what happened with ghash beyond the fact that they were DDoS'ed? I used to have my S3 there as a primary pool and it would fallover to eligius somewhat frequently, I have it pointed at eligius as a primary pool now so the downtime did not directly affect me.
It's possible this is all just good old variance, right? Right?
no.
ghash.io was crashed and they have over 30ph in hash maybe only 25ph rolled over correctly.
that is 5ph lost which is 1.5 percent
It's possible this is all just good old variance, right? Right?
GHash.IO have been having trouble all day with their hash rate so I'm guessing this has directly impacted difficulty
Yes these hashrates are pretty much impossible to predict.
The price is almost 30% higher then it was a few weeks ago and then the difficulty started rising, but now with the higher price is halts.
Makes no sense.
The price is almost 30% higher then it was a few weeks ago and then the difficulty started rising, but now with the higher price is halts.
Makes no sense.
actual live is 0.60% at 2:55 east coast time.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=978410053
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=978410053
legendary
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It dropped below my prediction range due to dropping prices
Wonder if it will keep going or stabilize
Bitcoin Difficulty: 46,684,376,317
Estimated Next Difficulty: 47,464,940,925 (+1.67%)
Adjust time: After 447 Blocks, About 3.1 days
Hashrate(?): 339,183,411 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.6 minutes
6 blocks: 59.2 minutes
Updated: 12:40 (43.0 seconds ago)
Wonder if it will keep going or stabilize
Bitcoin Difficulty: 46,684,376,317
Estimated Next Difficulty: 47,464,940,925 (+1.67%)
Adjust time: After 447 Blocks, About 3.1 days
Hashrate(?): 339,183,411 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.6 minutes
6 blocks: 59.2 minutes
Updated: 12:40 (43.0 seconds ago)
Yes I am surprised its only at 3%, with the increase in price I assumed it would jump 10% or so.
Well the price has dropped back from a peak of $288 to $270 now.yep and many will just flip a switch. I can go from 0 to 12th in 2 minutes. Back down to 0 in 20 seconds. Many others can do the same.
The s-3's can do on to off in under 20 seconds and back on in 2 minutes.
There were over 50ph in s-3's sold this gear is marginal at 11 cents a kwatt and 265 usd a coin it makes 8 bucks in a month.
My guess is a lot of people turn s-3's on and off depending on price.
Would you really do that depending on price? I mean it only matters if and when you need to exchange BTC to fiat to pay the power bill, not when you mine those coins. So if I'm paying monthly, and my bill exceeds revenue for the last month and I don't see it getting better next month then I might consider switching it off.
Another consideration is resale value, I might want to switch it off sooner and dump it on eBay and replace it with better hardware if the numbers add up.
On small scale I think a lot of us just mine even at a tiny loss. Bigger companies may have 100 s-3's or 1000 s-3's and 100 or 1000 s-5's
Just mine the s-5's 24/7 and turn the s-3's on and off.
A few days back both nice hash and west hash were paying 0.0115 and coins were 280. now you are at 0.0103 and coins are 265. that is a big drop off .
Flick a switch and don't mine your s-3's .
I am not saying it as a reality but as a dollar and cents profit or loss it works. I could see 1-2ph getting turned off based on the 2 drops above.
Yes I am surprised its only at 3%, with the increase in price I assumed it would jump 10% or so.
Well the price has dropped back from a peak of $288 to $270 now.yep and many will just flip a switch. I can go from 0 to 12th in 2 minutes. Back down to 0 in 20 seconds. Many others can do the same.
The s-3's can do on to off in under 20 seconds and back on in 2 minutes.
There were over 50ph in s-3's sold this gear is marginal at 11 cents a kwatt and 265 usd a coin it makes 8 bucks in a month.
My guess is a lot of people turn s-3's on and off depending on price.
Would you really do that depending on price? I mean it only matters if and when you need to exchange BTC to fiat to pay the power bill, not when you mine those coins. So if I'm paying monthly, and my bill exceeds revenue for the last month and I don't see it getting better next month then I might consider switching it off.
Another consideration is resale value, I might want to switch it off sooner and dump it on eBay and replace it with better hardware if the numbers add up.
With this article : http://www.coindesk.com/is-518-the-fair-price-of-bitcoin/
Do you think people will switch one the miner is the perspective of getting more bitcoin before the price go up?
Does anyone know the Benjamin Graham formula and could explain me this formula and the quatlity of it?
can wait to see the next diff change!
Do you think people will switch one the miner is the perspective of getting more bitcoin before the price go up?
Does anyone know the Benjamin Graham formula and could explain me this formula and the quatlity of it?
can wait to see the next diff change!
Yes I am surprised its only at 3%, with the increase in price I assumed it would jump 10% or so.
Well the price has dropped back from a peak of $288 to $270 now.yep and many will just flip a switch. I can go from 0 to 12th in 2 minutes. Back down to 0 in 20 seconds. Many others can do the same.
The s-3's can do on to off in under 20 seconds and back on in 2 minutes.
There were over 50ph in s-3's sold this gear is marginal at 11 cents a kwatt and 265 usd a coin it makes 8 bucks in a month.
My guess is a lot of people turn s-3's on and off depending on price.
Yes I am surprised its only at 3%, with the increase in price I assumed it would jump 10% or so.
Well the price has dropped back from a peak of $288 to $270 now.
Yes I am surprised its only at 3%, with the increase in price I assumed it would jump 10% or so.
It looks like ghash.io has been out for a few hours. Not everyone has backup pools set. Their share of the hashrate has dropped significantly, but that could be slowing things down. Or variance.
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