Feb 22 to March 9 diff thread with contest included. - page 6.

philipma1957

legendary

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: tss on February 27, 2015, 12:19:38 AM

thanks. i will pay closer attention to the available ranges on the next one.

to make things easier i'll switch to +1.76% to +2.00%

I think that one is open . it is yours I went back and checked.

to people picking we have a few from +0.26% up to 1.50% this is about 5 ranges.

tss

hero member

Activity: 742

Merit: 500

thanks. i will pay closer attention to the available ranges on the next one.

to make things easier i'll switch to +1.76% to +2.00%

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4256

Merit: 8551

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: philipma1957 on February 26, 2015, 06:32:50 AM

Quote from: philipma1957 on February 25, 2015, 01:28:51 AM

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

feb 22 155 blocks bridges both diff adj

----------------------- 144 is normal 0%
feb 23 142 blocks 2 under
feb 24 128 blocks 16 under
feb 25 161 blocks 17 over
feb 26 145 blocks 1 over

so the 4 full days we are at 0.00% !

   feb 22 was a bridge day with blocks made on last diff adjust ment .

my guess for a real time number right now is about 1%

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (+3.55%) ---- It is too high but a few days at 155 blocks a day

it would be on spot.

Bitcoin Difficulty:   46,684,376,317
Estimated Next Difficulty:   48,340,580,460 (+3.55%)
Adjust time:   After 1410 Blocks, About 9.8 days
Hashrate(?):   343,087,114 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 30.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   23:10 (5.8 minutes ago)

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: philipma1957 on February 25, 2015, 01:28:51 AM

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

feb 22 155 blocks bridges both diff adj
feb 23 142 blocks 2 under 144 norm
feb 24 128 blocks 16 under
feb 25 161 blocks 17 over

A lot of blocks made on the 25th.

suchmoon

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Activity: 3654

Merit: 8909

https://bpip.org

Quote from: ezeminer on February 25, 2015, 05:40:31 PM

Quote from: suchmoon on February 25, 2015, 05:36:21 PM

Lots of variance recently, 40 minutes since last block and 3 blocks within a minute prior to that.

Actually I have no idea if that's really unusual, just been looking at some random blockchain stats Grin

Quote from: philipma1957 on February 25, 2015, 04:21:01 PM

@ suchmoon all bold is updates.

Thanks!

Well looks like that block has been cracked. Looks like over 3.8million dollars in output

... and now we got 4 blocks in ~5 minutes.

ezeminer

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Merit: 1118

Lie down. Have a cookie

Quote from: suchmoon on February 25, 2015, 05:36:21 PM

Lots of variance recently, 40 minutes since last block and 3 blocks within a minute prior to that.

Actually I have no idea if that's really unusual, just been looking at some random blockchain stats Grin

Quote from: philipma1957 on February 25, 2015, 04:21:01 PM

@ suchmoon all bold is updates.

Thanks!

Well looks like that block has been cracked. Looks like over 3.8million dollars in output

suchmoon

legendary

Activity: 3654

Merit: 8909

https://bpip.org

Lots of variance recently, 40 minutes since last block and 3 blocks within a minute prior to that.

Actually I have no idea if that's really unusual, just been looking at some random blockchain stats Grin

Quote from: philipma1957 on February 25, 2015, 04:21:01 PM

@ suchmoon all bold is updates.

Thanks!

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4256

Merit: 8551

'The right to privacy matters'

almost all realistic numbers are going a few in the zero to two range are left. current different looks like

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (+4.72)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   46,684,376,317
Estimated Next Difficulty:   48,886,546,569 (+4.72%)
Adjust time:   After 1607 Blocks, About 11.1 days
Hashrate(?):   337,622,576 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.8 minutes
6 blocks: 59.5 minutes
Updated:   15:40 (2.5 minutes ago)

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/ +0.32%

Blocks   345146
Total BTC   13.879M

Difficulty   46684376317
Estimated   46831914293 in 1606 blks

Network total   398022.617 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   7.15 / 504 s

no big jump up yet 510 block in and 1506 left.

at this point in time. + 0.26 to + 0.50 % would be the winner according to bitcoincharts.com

yet no one has that spot picked.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

tss

hero member

Activity: 742

Merit: 500

Quote from: philipma1957 on February 24, 2015, 12:01:35 AM

tss has +4.80 to +5.05 this need a correction

as both +4.76 to +5.00 and +5.01 to +5.25

have been picked before you picked. maybe +5.26 to +5.50?

ok i'll take +5.26 to +5.50

ezeminer

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Activity: 2184

Merit: 1118

Lie down. Have a cookie

Quote from: A4Tech on February 25, 2015, 02:09:58 PM

+3.51 to + 3.75

A4 you might want another number since that one has been claimed.

Quote from: Korbman on February 25, 2015, 11:27:20 AM

Assuming it's still available, I'll take the +3.51% to +3.75% slot.

This is sort of an interesting change, though I'm not sure I like it. It feels more constricting since I can't select the number I like because it's in a range taken by someone else, so a speedy reply is more of a factor now than it was before. Posting another guess as the closing date draws closer is also limited, since it's likely the range will already be taken.

A4Tech

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Merit: 10

+3.51 to + 3.75

philipma1957

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Activity: 4256

Merit: 8551

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: Korbman on February 25, 2015, 11:27:20 AM

Assuming it's still available, I'll take the +3.51% to +3.75% slot.

This is sort of an interesting change, though I'm not sure I like it. It feels more constricting since I can't select the number I like because it's in a range taken by someone else, so a speedy reply is more of a factor now than it was before. Posting another guess as the closing date draws closer is also limited, since it's likely the range will already be taken.

yeah that is the down side. upside is no ties. and no surrounding a pick.

Ie. I pick -1.11% and seriouscoin picks -1.12% then using another name from his work pc he picks -1.10% thus surrounding my pick of -1.11% making me a sure loser.

(well almost sure) .

Now I am in a range of -1.01% to -1.25 % thus a full surrounding is not possible.

Korbman

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Activity: 1064

Merit: 1001

Assuming it's still available, I'll take the +3.51% to +3.75% slot.

This is sort of an interesting change, though I'm not sure I like it. It feels more constricting since I can't select the number I like because it's in a range taken by someone else, so a speedy reply is more of a factor now than it was before. Posting another guess as the closing date draws closer is also limited, since it's likely the range will already be taken.

wayneyoyo

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Activity: 606

Merit: 500

Quote from: Kexkey on February 25, 2015, 07:39:06 AM

Quote from: wayneyoyo on February 25, 2015, 01:04:57 AM

Quote from: Kexkey on February 24, 2015, 09:22:57 PM

It's still early to tell but I feel like there will be a decreasing difficulty next time. I think there will be a lot of changes in predictions before the deadline...

I don't think there will be very much room for changes. There are too few spots available within a reasonable range for it to make sense for someone to give up their spot.

My guess is -3.26% to - 4.00%

True, I was forgetting about that. People might start selling their spot and a new suchmoon-philipma-diff-contest-spot-marketplace would be born... Result of spot scarcity... Wow, what a vision I just got. Grin

I don't see spots being worth that much. The spots only have a small range and even with under a day left it will be difficult to know with any good level of certainty that any particular spot will win.

It is a free market though and there is no reason not to embrace a free market if one develops.

Kexkey

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Activity: 237

Merit: 100

Smile while thinking.

Quote from: wayneyoyo on February 25, 2015, 01:04:57 AM

Quote from: Kexkey on February 24, 2015, 09:22:57 PM

It's still early to tell but I feel like there will be a decreasing difficulty next time. I think there will be a lot of changes in predictions before the deadline...

I don't think there will be very much room for changes. There are too few spots available within a reasonable range for it to make sense for someone to give up their spot.

My guess is -3.26% to - 4.00%

True, I was forgetting about that. People might start selling their spot and a new suchmoon-philipma-diff-contest-spot-marketplace would be born... Result of spot scarcity... Wow, what a vision I just got. Grin

SunnyIgor

sr. member

Activity: 353

Merit: 251

+1,5 ---- +1,75

if available this will be my guess

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4256

Merit: 8551

'The right to privacy matters'

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

has big drops so far.

feb 22 155 blocks bridges both diff adj
feb 23 142 blocks 2 under 144 norm
feb 24 128 blocks 16 under

May see more drops

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   46,684,376,317
Estimated Next Difficulty:   48,863,011,820 (+4.67%) ----- this is high as of today
Adjust time:   After 1715 Blocks, About 11.9 days
Hashrate(?):   320,009,031 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 10.0 minutes------------------------ This is 0%
3 blocks: 29.9 minutes
6 blocks: 59.8 minutes
Updated:   0:30 (2.4 minutes ago)

wayneyoyo

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Activity: 606

Merit: 500

Quote from: philipma1957 on February 25, 2015, 01:12:43 AM

Quote from: wayneyoyo on February 25, 2015, 01:04:57 AM

Quote from: Kexkey on February 24, 2015, 09:22:57 PM

It's still early to tell but I feel like there will be a decreasing difficulty next time. I think there will be a lot of changes in predictions before the deadline...

I don't think there will be very much room for changes. There are too few spots available within a reasonable range for it to make sense for someone to give up their spot.

My guess is -3.26% to - 4.00%

I think you want -3.26% to -3.50%

the max pick is only a 0.25 wide spread

so -3.26% to -3.50% = a 0.25 wide spread

yup, you are right, it is very late

My guess is -3.26 to - 3.50%

jmumich

full member

Activity: 209

Merit: 100

Quote from: suchmoon on February 24, 2015, 09:06:28 PM

--- +0.26% to +2.00% are still available (7 intervals)

This is really surprising.

Topic: Feb 22 to March 9 diff thread with contest included. - page 6. (Read 10460 times)