I wonder what would happen to the difficulty if China ever had a widespread power outage...
Edit: Hey! 3.93% It's in my range again!
Topic: Feb 22 to March 9 diff thread with contest included. - page 4. (Read 10460 times)
You always can hope a farm burns down. 
Or gets stolen
Or someone forgets to pay the power bill: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.10650588
You always can hope a farm burns down.
Or gets stolen
The projected difficulty is creeping back down... maybe I'm still in this yet!
Seriously, with the price on the rise I don't expect to win this round.
Seriously, with the price on the rise I don't expect to win this round.
You always can hope a farm burns down.
The projected difficulty is creeping back down... maybe I'm still in this yet!
Seriously, with the price on the rise I don't expect to win this round.
Seriously, with the price on the rise I don't expect to win this round.
Thanks for the kind words on the sheet - I think the moving averages are finally accurate - also I noticed the daily blocks solved that blockr.io reports are different from those that I get (though they add up the same) - I thought they used EST for their day, but I guess not.
So far the estimated difficulty change on a given day seems to move toward the 3-day moving average, but its a very small sample size.
My totally unsupported hypothesis at this point is that the final change will be somewhere between the 3 and 5 day MAs as of right now, or 2.09% to 3.63%.
Also I've been playing around with past data, trying to smooth out variance to visualize when actual large amounts of mining power came online (or went offline). It looks like, for example, about 10-15 PH went online around Feb. 15-16 or so.
It will be interesting to see what happens in the coming weeks if the recent price increase continues or at least holds where it is instead of dropping back below $250, combined with the arrival of spring in the north half of the world and the lack of consumer hardware on the market right now.
Now if I can only figure out how to automate all the things that have to be done at midnight..
So far the estimated difficulty change on a given day seems to move toward the 3-day moving average, but its a very small sample size.
My totally unsupported hypothesis at this point is that the final change will be somewhere between the 3 and 5 day MAs as of right now, or 2.09% to 3.63%.
Also I've been playing around with past data, trying to smooth out variance to visualize when actual large amounts of mining power came online (or went offline). It looks like, for example, about 10-15 PH went online around Feb. 15-16 or so.
It will be interesting to see what happens in the coming weeks if the recent price increase continues or at least holds where it is instead of dropping back below $250, combined with the arrival of spring in the north half of the world and the lack of consumer hardware on the market right now.
Now if I can only figure out how to automate all the things that have to be done at midnight..
I do appreciate your work on this. As far as I know you are the only person offing a 'real' time number.
I danced around it with bitcoincharts and blockr.io but your spread sheet nailed it.
It is a valuable number used with bitcoinwisdom and current BTC price it reallys helps to judge the next diff numbers
I added a Log tab that records the estimated difficulty change every minute and charts it - it's been in there since yesterday but I had to scrap a bunch of data due to a mistake I made during the switch to the next day. Hopefully that will help visualize the trend.
I will take a long look at it tonight. I think your spreadsheet is the only place for a real time diff number on the net. Pretty nice work by you.
Thanks for the kind words on the sheet - I think the moving averages are finally accurate - also I noticed the daily blocks solved that blockr.io reports are different from those that I get (though they add up the same) - I thought they used EST for their day, but I guess not.
So far the estimated difficulty change on a given day seems to move toward the 3-day moving average, but its a very small sample size.
My totally unsupported hypothesis at this point is that the final change will be somewhere between the 3 and 5 day MAs as of right now, or 2.09% to 3.63%.
Also I've been playing around with past data, trying to smooth out variance to visualize when actual large amounts of mining power came online (or went offline). It looks like, for example, about 10-15 PH went online around Feb. 15-16 or so.
It will be interesting to see what happens in the coming weeks if the recent price increase continues or at least holds where it is instead of dropping back below $250, combined with the arrival of spring in the north half of the world and the lack of consumer hardware on the market right now.
Now if I can only figure out how to automate all the things that have to be done at midnight..
So far the estimated difficulty change on a given day seems to move toward the 3-day moving average, but its a very small sample size.
My totally unsupported hypothesis at this point is that the final change will be somewhere between the 3 and 5 day MAs as of right now, or 2.09% to 3.63%.
Also I've been playing around with past data, trying to smooth out variance to visualize when actual large amounts of mining power came online (or went offline). It looks like, for example, about 10-15 PH went online around Feb. 15-16 or so.
It will be interesting to see what happens in the coming weeks if the recent price increase continues or at least holds where it is instead of dropping back below $250, combined with the arrival of spring in the north half of the world and the lack of consumer hardware on the market right now.
Now if I can only figure out how to automate all the things that have to be done at midnight..
I do appreciate your work on this. As far as I know you are the only person offing a 'real' time number.
I danced around it with bitcoincharts and blockr.io but your spread sheet nailed it.
It is a valuable number used with bitcoinwisdom and current BTC price it reallys helps to judge the next diff numbers
I added a Log tab that records the estimated difficulty change every minute and charts it - it's been in there since yesterday but I had to scrap a bunch of data due to a mistake I made during the switch to the next day. Hopefully that will help visualize the trend.
lookin' at the btc price trend 
i think we are fucked....
if price goes back to ~220$, or under, we may see negative dif again
i think we are fucked....if price goes back to ~220$, or under, we may see negative dif again
that is right price goes over 300 and it is over we will jump in diff. a lot.
Well, at least we all loaded up on cheap mining hardware, didn't we?
Should be able to survive a few 10% jumps.
that is right price goes over 300 and it is over we will jump in diff. a lot.
yes 
RedhatCAT long run man, not just 1 diff jump
lookin' at the btc price trend i think we are fucked....
if price goes back to ~220$, or under, we may see negative dif again
i think we are fucked....if price goes back to ~220$, or under, we may see negative dif again
that is right price goes over 300 and it is over we will jump in diff. a lot.
lookin' at the btc price trend i think we are fucked....
if price goes back to ~220$, or under, we may see negative dif again
I am not sure the chances of the price being under $220 for long enough to make a difference are very good. There is only ~4.4 days left until the next adjustment and the price would need to be below that level at least a good two to three days prior to the adjustment in order for it to have any meaningful impact on the difficulty change. i think we are fucked....if price goes back to ~220$, or under, we may see negative dif again
I would say it is more likely that more miners will be turned back on as the price has recently increased
lookin' at the btc price trend i think we are fucked....
if price goes back to ~220$, or under, we may see negative dif again
i think we are fucked....if price goes back to ~220$, or under, we may see negative dif again
Just popping in here to gloat about my soon-to-be victory!
You know, you can manipulate this contest a bit if you manage to find the last block of the period. You can adjust the block timestamp up to an hour ahead or behind the current time to actually push the difficulty a tiny bit down or up.
I'll blame it on this manipulation if I lose.
You know, you can manipulate this contest a bit if you manage to find the last block of the period. You can adjust the block timestamp up to an hour ahead or behind the current time to actually push the difficulty a tiny bit down or up.
I'll blame it on this manipulation if I lose.
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Please feel free to speculate about how wrong your original guess was etc
Please feel free to speculate about how wrong your original guess was etc
Still a few days to go but ha-ha with that range of people someones going to hit the mark
Think it might decrease difficulty a bit more but at 5% that's about right given the price rises
I've been watching BitcoinWisdom jumping above, below, and occasionally within my 3.76 - 4.0 guess which has been fun. Today it is farther away (4.98 at the moment). Still plenty of time though...
price went up so more miners went on line.
I think we are now past 280 usd a coin
I've been watching BitcoinWisdom jumping above, below, and occasionally within my 3.76 - 4.0 guess which has been fun. Today it is farther away (4.98 at the moment). Still plenty of time though...
Thanks for the kind words on the sheet - I think the moving averages are finally accurate - also I noticed the daily blocks solved that blockr.io reports are different from those that I get (though they add up the same) - I thought they used EST for their day, but I guess not.
So far the estimated difficulty change on a given day seems to move toward the 3-day moving average, but its a very small sample size.
My totally unsupported hypothesis at this point is that the final change will be somewhere between the 3 and 5 day MAs as of right now, or 2.09% to 3.63%.
Also I've been playing around with past data, trying to smooth out variance to visualize when actual large amounts of mining power came online (or went offline). It looks like, for example, about 10-15 PH went online around Feb. 15-16 or so.
It will be interesting to see what happens in the coming weeks if the recent price increase continues or at least holds where it is instead of dropping back below $250, combined with the arrival of spring in the north half of the world and the lack of consumer hardware on the market right now.
Now if I can only figure out how to automate all the things that have to be done at midnight..
So far the estimated difficulty change on a given day seems to move toward the 3-day moving average, but its a very small sample size.
My totally unsupported hypothesis at this point is that the final change will be somewhere between the 3 and 5 day MAs as of right now, or 2.09% to 3.63%.
Also I've been playing around with past data, trying to smooth out variance to visualize when actual large amounts of mining power came online (or went offline). It looks like, for example, about 10-15 PH went online around Feb. 15-16 or so.
It will be interesting to see what happens in the coming weeks if the recent price increase continues or at least holds where it is instead of dropping back below $250, combined with the arrival of spring in the north half of the world and the lack of consumer hardware on the market right now.
Now if I can only figure out how to automate all the things that have to be done at midnight..
I do appreciate your work on this. As far as I know you are the only person offing a 'real' time number.
I danced around it with bitcoincharts and blockr.io but your spread sheet nailed it.
It is a valuable number used with bitcoinwisdom and current BTC price it reallys helps to judge the next diff numbers
Thanks for the kind words on the sheet - I think the moving averages are finally accurate - also I noticed the daily blocks solved that blockr.io reports are different from those that I get (though they add up the same) - I thought they used EST for their day, but I guess not.
So far the estimated difficulty change on a given day seems to move toward the 3-day moving average, but its a very small sample size.
My totally unsupported hypothesis at this point is that the final change will be somewhere between the 3 and 5 day MAs as of right now, or 2.09% to 3.63%.
Also I've been playing around with past data, trying to smooth out variance to visualize when actual large amounts of mining power came online (or went offline). It looks like, for example, about 10-15 PH went online around Feb. 15-16 or so.
It will be interesting to see what happens in the coming weeks if the recent price increase continues or at least holds where it is instead of dropping back below $250, combined with the arrival of spring in the north half of the world and the lack of consumer hardware on the market right now.
Now if I can only figure out how to automate all the things that have to be done at midnight..
So far the estimated difficulty change on a given day seems to move toward the 3-day moving average, but its a very small sample size.
My totally unsupported hypothesis at this point is that the final change will be somewhere between the 3 and 5 day MAs as of right now, or 2.09% to 3.63%.
Also I've been playing around with past data, trying to smooth out variance to visualize when actual large amounts of mining power came online (or went offline). It looks like, for example, about 10-15 PH went online around Feb. 15-16 or so.
It will be interesting to see what happens in the coming weeks if the recent price increase continues or at least holds where it is instead of dropping back below $250, combined with the arrival of spring in the north half of the world and the lack of consumer hardware on the market right now.
Now if I can only figure out how to automate all the things that have to be done at midnight..
The live number at 947 am New Jersey USA time is +0.82%
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=978410053
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty is projecting (+3.55%) we have 909 blocks to go and price is 255 usd
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=978410053
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty is projecting (+3.55%) we have 909 blocks to go and price is 255 usd
I'm pretty happy with this. It appears its going to be a small increase which considering BTC having a little increase all is fine with me.
I would love -1 to + 1 . then have btc go to 315 or so.
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