Topic: Feb 22 to March 9 diff thread with contest included. - page 5. (Read 10460 times)

I'm pretty happy with this.  It appears its going to be a small increase which considering BTC having a little increase all is fine with me.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit?usp=sharing

that sheet basically takes both www.bitcoincharts.com

and http://btc.blockr.io/charts   combines the two and make it real time.

 I just checked the google sheet and at 1036 pm we are at a real time 0.00% !!


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  has  (+2.42%)  for a future prediction



Bitcoin Difficulty:   46,684,376,317
Estimated Next Difficulty:   47,814,895,004 (+2.42%)
Adjust time:   After 985 Blocks, About 6.8 days                            the projected number is for 985 more blocks.
Hashrate(?):   335,785,423 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 30.0 minutes
6 blocks: 60.0 minutes
Updated:   22:35 (4.8 minutes ago)

very nice work on that google sheet.

 right now at 925 am east coast time we are at +1.16%  .

  This is a current live number and in an hour a 10ph farm could turn online for the first time thus moving the 1.16 to 2.22.  I am glad to see you took the time to give us a live number.  thanks again.

we are now at 0.72%    120 pm east coast time  that is the live number.

I think it looks great.

FINAL LIST

Please everyone review your entries and let me know if you find anything that's missing or incorrect.

NEW ENTRIES FOR THE REWARD ARE NOT ALLOWED ANYMORE, but please feel free to speculate about how wrong your original guess was etc 

wayneyoyo -3.26 to -3.50%
TheAnalogKid -3.01 to -3.25%
Window2Wall -2.51 to -2.75%
davejh -2.26 to -2.50%
tarmi -2.01 to -2.25%
RoadStress -1.51% to -1.75%
philipma1957 -1.01 to -1.25%
valkir -0.76 to -1.00%
jmumich -0.01 to -0.25%
A4Tech 0.00% DOUBLE REWARD!
Jamphone +0.01 to +0.25%
cryptokc +0.26% to +0.50%
alh +1.01 to 1.25%
edonkey's cat +1.26 to +1.50%
SunnyIgor +1.51% to +1.75%
tss +1.76% to +2.00%
Kexkey +2.01 to +2.25%
ScryptAsic +2.26 to +2.50%
buyandhold +2.51 to +2.75%
Swordsoffreedom +2.76 to +3.00%
SimplisticStu +3.01 to +3.25%
Biodom +3.26 to +3.50%
Korbman +3.51% to +3.75%
tlhIlwI +3.76 to +4.00%
HerbPean +4.01 to +4.25%
mavericklm +4.26 to +4.50%
armedmilitia +4.51 to +4.75%
Quickseller +4.76 to +5.00%
RedhatCAT +5.01 to +5.25%
Ume +5.26% to +5.50%
zebedee +5.51 to +5.75%
tertius993 +6.26 to +6.50%
notlist3d +6.51 to +6.75%
ezeminer +7.76 to +8.00%
DivineEruptus +19.76 to +20.00%

I put together a Google sheet that, if I did it right, should track the current day's status live (you might need to go to Tools -> Script Editor -> Run -> currentBlockNumber if the data isn't current, it should then stay live. This is definitely a work-in-progress, has to be updated by hand at midnight EST for now, and I'm sure there's more than a few mistakes (our numbers are a bit off, for one), so feel free to use, criticize, or ignore.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit?usp=sharing

I'll take +1.01% to 1.25%

no one is gambling  as no one is putting up any coin.  It is a free promo.

Now if you wanted to charge a fee more players is better.

Since it is free if the number was .1     -20 to +20 is  400 players   vs 160 players under current rules.

It is hard  to keep track now.

Back to topic we are at

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (+3.40%)


Bitcoin Difficulty:   46,684,376,317
Estimated Next Difficulty:   48,271,445,116 (+3.40%)
Adjust time:   After 1205 Blocks, About 8.3 days
Hashrate(?):   350,555,257 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.9 minutes
6 blocks: 59.7 minutes
Updated:   9:45 (3.4 minutes ago)

http://btc.blockr.io/charts



feb 22  155 blocks    bridges both  diff adj

----------------------- 144 is  normal 0%
feb 23  142 blocks     2 under
feb 24  128 blocks     16 under
feb 25  161 blocks     17 over
feb 26  145 blocks       1 over
feb 27  155 blocks      11 over
feb 28  141 blocks        3 under

6 full days = 872   normal = 864   we are 0.92 % over  if you include part of feb 22 we are around 1.15%

200% true

now for me will be perfect for the diff to not go up at all from this point and max .25% down

isn't .25% interval a bit too big, and restrictive in number of gamblers? maybe .1% is better and also easier

Bitcoinwisdom's percentages are rounded to two decimal places, so I think it would show 0.00 only if the actual percentage is > -0.005 and < 0.005 (because 0.005 and up would round to 0.01).

So yeah, the double reward is grossly unfair if that's what you're trying to say but there is no way I'm going to offer 2.5 BTC for it


Early cat gets the worm. Although with the hashrate still wobbling around unchanged almost halfway into the cycle - it's pretty much a gamble anyway, whether you're making an early or a late guess.

Our other cat says +1.26 to +1.5.

Personally I think it will likely be a little higher, but there aren't many slots this late in the game...

It's fun what this thread has become. Kind of like a crowded craps table 

my understanding is that 0.00 is is actually an interval between >-0.01; <+0.01, and even for this interval the award should have been roughly 10-12X from a statistical point of view.

The probability of it being exactly +/-0.00X with X being less than 5, rounded to 0.00 IS smaller still (about 1/25 of each other interval).

0.00% lets see .

yeah 255 usd is hopeful.

Not a huge jump so far:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    46,684,376,317
Estimated Next Difficulty:    48,430,052,314 (+3.74%)
Adjust time:    After 1319 Blocks, About 9.1 days

Also its nice to have the bump in price.  Hopefully it continues for a bit.

Bitstamp breached $250. Still a lot of time to go in this cycle, so if the exchange rate holds or climbs higher we might see some effect from that.

nice clean up suchmoon


diff is now (+2.67%) at bitcoinwisdom


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   46,684,376,317
Estimated Next Difficulty:   47,928,820,035 (+2.67%)
Adjust time:   After 1349 Blocks, About 9.5 days
Hashrate(?):   348,484,471 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   9:5 (1.5 minutes ago)

There is one entry that needs to be corrected - this interval has already been taken:
A4Tech +3.51 to +3.75%
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.10578375
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.10580191

Please everyone review your entries and let me know if you find anything that's missing or incorrect.

This is the last update before the deadline, so be careful when you post your guesses - I might not be able to warn you if something is wrong.

Deadline is 04:00 (4 AM) UTC March 1st, 2015.

To avoid time zone confusion - here is a countdown:

http://www.tickcounter.com/countdown/20150301040000am/w5310/1/Bitcointalk_Diff_Guess

--- anything starting with -3.51% and below is still available
wayneyoyo -3.26 to -3.50%
TheAnalogKid -3.01 to -3.25%
--- -2.76 to -3.00% is still available
Window2Wall -2.51 to -2.75%
davejh -2.26 to -2.50%
tarmi -2.01 to -2.25%
--- -1.76 to -2.00% is still available
RoadStress -1.51% to -1.75%
--- -1.26 to -1.50% is still available
philipma1957 -1.01 to -1.25%
valkir -0.76 to -1.00%
--- -0.26 to -0.50% and  -0.51% to -0.75% are still available
jmumich -0.01 to -0.25%
--- 0.00% is still available - DOUBLE REWARD!
Jamphone +0.01 to +0.25%
cryptokc +0.26% to +0.50%
--- +0.51% to +1.50% are still available (4 intervals)
SunnyIgor +1.51% to +1.75%
tss +1.76% to +2.00%
Kexkey +2.01 to +2.25%
ScryptAsic +2.26 to +2.50%
buyandhold +2.51 to +2.75%
Swordsoffreedom +2.76 to +3.00%
SimplisticStu +3.01 to +3.25%
Biodom +3.26 to +3.50%
Korbman +3.51% to +3.75%
tlhIlwI +3.76 to +4.00%
HerbPean +4.01 to +4.25%
mavericklm +4.26 to +4.50%
armedmilitia +4.51 to +4.75%
Quickseller +4.76 to +5.00%
RedhatCAT +5.01 to +5.25%
Ume +5.26% to +5.50%
zebedee +5.51 to +5.75%
--- +5.76% to +6.00% and +6.01% to +6.25% are still available
tertius993 +6.26 to +6.50%
notlist3d +6.51 to +6.75%
--- +6.76% to +7.75% are still available (4 intervals)
ezeminer +7.76 to +8.00%
--- +8.01% to +19.75% are still available (a huge number of intervals, I'm to lazy to count them)
DivineEruptus +19.76 to +20.00%
--- +20.01% and above are all still available


There is one entry that needs to be corrected - this interval has already been taken:
A4Tech +3.51 to +3.75%
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.10578375
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.10580191

I'll take 0.26% to 0.50%