Topic: ⚽ Football Friendly Match is Hard to Predict (Read 1511 times)

I'm so unlucky as for friendly game bets.    This is even affecting my predictions in BSFL on the questions regarding some friendly games in a bad way.

It is quite hard to predict how serious players will play in these games. The Spain - Brazil game can be given as a perfect example for that. I was expecting to watch a boring game but the result was totally opposite, haha. I thought England would beat Belgium and got wrong once again. I guess I will leave betting on friendly games for a while. 


Exactly mate. It was like a totally different game than just a friendly. Especially Brazil looked like they took this game even more serious. Maybe Dorival Júnior had some good impact on the players after starting his job.

Congratulations on the winning bet  

Brazil does need to improve, but it is quite remarkable how much it has improved
Brazil were losing to the weaker South American teams, and now they've managed to get good results against England and Spain, who are Tier A, and that's just 2 games under the new coach

We still have 2 friendlies for each team until the start of the Copa America and Euro 24, I'm really looking forward to it, but the games won't be until June

Brazil will face Mexico in June 08 and USA June 12

I just won the bet  , as my prediction before, the match is potential draw. but, I wasn't so sure to bet draw before look who the player take to the field. when I look the match, Brazilian players getting better day by day, they are quite coherent in supplying the ball and defending the goal. But when I compare like they champions on world cup before, their game is certainly not better than the previous one, they need improvement in midfielder and attacker.

The game was evenly matched, but the lack of VAR was decisive for the game. The second penalty for Spain wasn't a penalty at all, anyone who watches the video will know that it wasn't a penalty. And that totally influenced the game
I don't know how there are still people who are against VAR

Brazil showed that they've improved a lot with the change of coach and they played very well against England and Spain, the Brazilians finally played well again. The friendlies were very fruitful

And I lost my bet 

The first half of brazil vs Spain was mostly spain attacking and brazil defending. The brazil defense looked vulnerable as spain were being able to get into dbox without much issue. A bad tackle from brazillian team led to a penalty goal for Spain. The second goal was Dani Olmo single handedly avoiding entire brazillian defense and goalkeeper. A mistake from the Spanish goalkeeper made Brazil score their first goal.
Brazil was able to score early in the second half making it 2-2. Another penalty in 87th minute made Spain lead again by 3-2 while the last minute of the injury time, brazil got a penalty goal as a spanish defender pulled a brazilian's leg with his hands. Even being a friendly, it was a heated match.

The match between Brazil and Spain ended in a 3-3 draw despite a wide margin. In the match between these two teams, Spain controlled the ball for most of the time, but Brazil did not give up. Spain had 58% team control and Brazil had 42% team control. And in terms of attack, Spain team is far ahead, they made 19 attacks in the whole match and Brazil team made 12 attacks in total. While I can see most of the differences within the game, the game results are pretty even, based on experience alone, this game wins.

I am so excited with England national team starting eleven against Belgium with Gareth Southgate give senior team debut for Manchester United young player Kobbie Mainoo. He filled the midfielder position with most talented senior players such as Jude Bellingham, Declan Rice and Phil Foden, FIFA friendly match become good opportunity for some teams manager giving regular position or more minutes playing for young players and Kobbie Mainoo should proof his capacity after getting first regulation position.

Until 60th minutes, Belgium leaded awhile over 2-1 and left thirty minutes will England make comeback or not, Gareth Southgate still not change the starting eleven yet except John Stones replacing by Joe Gomez on 10th minutes after getting injury. Will this score extend until the end match and England got losses two matches in a row after losing before against Brazil?

Malta vs Belarus

Malta StartXI: 3-5-2
Henry Bonello; Kurt Shaw; Enrico Pepe; Zach Muscat; Carlo Zammit Lonardelli; Nikolai Muscat; Matthew Guillaumier; Yannick Yankam; Paul Mbong; Kemar Reid; Kyrian Nwoko

Belarus StartXI: 3-5-2
Sergey Ignatovich; Denis Polyakov; Sergei Politevich; Pavel Zabelin; Danila Nechaev; Nikita Korzun; Evgeni Yablonski; Max Ebong; Kirill Pechenin; Artem Shumansky; Maxim Kireev


Norway vs Slovakia

Norway StartXI: 4-4-2
Ørjan Nyland; Julian Ryerson; Kristoffer Ajer; Leo Østigård; Fredrik André Bjørkan; Oscar Bobb; Martin Ødegaard; Sander Berge; Mohamed Elyounoussi; Erling Haaland; Alexander Sørloth

Slovakia StartXI: 4-3-3
Marek Rodák; Michal Tomič; Norbert Gyömbér; Adam Obert; Vernon De Marco; Juraj Kucka; Patrik Hrošovský; László Bénes; Dávid Ďuriš; Róbert Boženík; Lukáš Haraslín

---

Luxembourg vs Kazakhstan

Luxembourg StartXI: 4-5-1
Anthony Moris; Florian Bohnert; Marvin Martins; Lars Gerson; Laurent Jans; Danel Sinani; Leandro Barreiro; Christopher Martins Pereira; Mathias Olesen; Yvandro Borges Sanches; Gerson Rodrigues

Kazakhstan StartXI: 5-4-1
Igor Shatskiy; Erkin Tapalov; Marat Bystrov; Aleksandr Marochkin; Nuraly Alip; Roman Asrankulov; Ramazan Orazov; Askhat Tagybergen; Adilet Sadybekov; Bakhtiyar Zaynutdinov; Maksim Samorodov


Scotland vs Northern Ireland

Scotland StartXI: 3-4-2-1
Angus Gunn; Liam Cooper; Jack Hendry; Kieran Tierney; Nathan Patterson; Billy Gilmour; Scott McTominay; Andrew Robertson; John McGinn; Ryan Christie; Lyndon Dykes

Northern Ireland StartXI: 5-3-2
Bailey Peacock-Farrell; Brodie Spencer; Daniel Ballard; Paddy McNair; Eoin Toal; Trai Hume; Conor Bradley; Alistair McCann; Shea Charles; Jamie Reid; Isaac Price


England vs Belgium

England StartXI: 4-2-3-1
Jordan Pickford; Ezri Konsa; Lewis Dunk; John Stones; Ben Chilwell; Jude Bellingham; Declan Rice; Jarrod Bowen; Phil Foden; Kobbie Mainoo; Ivan Toney

Belgium StartXI: 4-3-3
Matz Sels; Timothy Castagne; Zeno Debast; Jan Vertonghen; Arthur Theate; Youri Tielemans; Amadou Onana; Orel Mangala; Jérémy Doku; Romelu Lukaku; Leandro Trossard


Rep. Of Ireland vs Switzerland

Rep. Of Ireland StartXI: 3-4-3
Gavin Bazunu; Andrew Omobamidele; Nathan Collins; Dara O'Shea; Séamus Coleman; Josh Cullen; Jason Knight; Robbie Brady; Sammie Szmodics; Evan Ferguson; Michael Johnston

Switzerland StartXI: 3-5-2
Yvon Mvogo; Nico Elvedi; Fabian Schär; Silvan Widmer; Eray Cömert; Xherdan Shaqiri; Granit Xhaka; Michel Aebischer; Vincent Sierro; Dan Ndoye; Zeki Amdouni


Austria vs Turkey
Austria StartXI: 4-4-2
Alexander Schlager; Stefan Posch; Kevin Danso; Maximilian Wöber; Phillipp Mwene; Konrad Laimer; Xaver Schlager; Nicolas Seiwald; Romano Schmid; Christoph Baumgartner; Michael Gregoritsch

Turkey StartXI: 4-2-3-1
Uğurcan Çakır; Mert Müldür; Merih Demiral; Kaan Ayhan; Cenk Özkaçar; Salih Özcan; Hakan Çalhanoğlu; İrfan Can Kahveci; Arda Güler; Kerem Aktürkoğlu; Kenan Yıldız


Germany vs Netherlands

Germany StartXI: 4-2-3-1
Marc-André ter Stegen; Joshua Kimmich; Antonio Rüdiger; Jonathan Tah; Maximilian Mittelstädt; Robert Andrich; Toni Kroos; Jamal Musiala; İlkay Gündoğan; Florian Wirtz; Kai Havertz

Netherlands StartXI: 3-4-1-2
Bart Verbruggen; Matthijs de Ligt; Virgil van Dijk; Nathan Aké; Denzel Dumfries; Jerdy Schouten; Joey Veerman; Daley Blind; Tijjani Reijnders; Donyell Malen; Memphis Depay


Slovenia vs Portugal

Slovenia StartXI: 4-4-2
Jan Oblak; Žan Karničnik; Miha Blažič; Jaka Bijol; Erik Janža; Petar Stojanović; Adam Gnezda Čerin; Timi Max Elšnik; Sandi Lovrić; Andraž Šporar; Benjamin Šeško

Portugal StartXI: 3-4-2-1
Diogo Costa; Danilo Pereira; Pepe; Gonçalo Inácio; Diogo Dalot; Rúben Neves; Vitinha; João Cancelo; Otávio; João Félix; Cristiano Ronaldo


Spain vs Brazil

Spain StartXI: 4-2-3-1
Unai Simón; Daniel Carvajal; Robin Le Normand; Aymeric Laporte; Marc Cucurella; Fabián Ruiz; Rodri; Lamine Yamal; Dani Olmo; Nico Williams; Álvaro Morata

Brazil StartXI: 4-3-3
Bento; Danilo; Fabrício Bruno; Lucas Beraldo; Wendell; Lucas Paquetá; Bruno Guimarães; João Gomes; Raphinha; Rodrygo; Vinícius Júnior


New Zealand vs Tunisia

New Zealand StartXI: 4-2-3-1
Max Crocombe; Tommy Smith; Michael Boxall; Tyler Bindon; Liberato Cacace; Alex Rufer; Marko Stamenić; Matthew Garbett; Sarpreet Singh; Callum McCowatt; Kosta Barbarouses

Tunisia StartXI: 5-3-2
Bechir Ben Said; Wajdi Kechrida; Dylan Bronn; Hamza Jelassi; Oussama Haddadi; Ali Abdi; Aissa Laïdouni; Nader Ghandri; Mohamed Ali Ben Romdhane; Hamza Rafia; Elias Achouri

[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]

Friendly games is better staked on goals and not direct win. You have stated correctly that key players don't play most times and when they do they are careful and the coach substitute them early in the game to avoid being injured because they could be target and subject to injury.

The question is why play a key player when nothing is at stake only fitness and to taste your strategy of which the key player can fit into the real game since he is already fit or he can do the fitness exercise somehow not necessarily on the friendly game. So the best betting option that I have successfully tried is on goals because defenders too are not keen on defense, nobody wants injury on friendly game.

lol! Take friendly matches serious at your own risk.

Most key players don't take friendly matches seriously and some of them won't even come in the first place and you want to try your luck with a second squad of a term playing with another's first square? If you've watched most international friendless you will observe the casual play from most teams as they mostly use friendlies to check out their players to see if some are good enough for the main tournament.

The odds are good to bet on Belgium, England will suffer without Harry Kane, Kyle Walker, Sam Johnstone and Harry Maguire, they are injured, the total count is 15 players unavailable.
Coach Southgate is frustrated because these 2 matches are supposed to be the final preparation to Euro 24
So betting on Belgium could be a good risk reward option

France vs Chile, in my opinion, there's no chance for Chile, France will win, but the odds are not good, only 1.24, maybe goals over 3

Brazil vs Spain, I'll bet on Brazil victory

True, both team is hard to predict, but the point this game is for war the rascisme and violence in football, even play at home, spain won't play comfortably because they are facing the best team in the world, draw is possible but the possible of winning is bigger because they have the support of fans at the Bernabeu.

Another game to watch today is england vs belgium, and France vs Chile. which I think england it won't be easy to beat belgium, while france chances have big win at their home.

This is a condition that is bound to happen because seeing from the situation of friendly matches sometimes even though in their games they are serious but for some occasions this is actually used as a trial in the scheme, formation and placement of players so that the results are definitely random because we are difficult to make a real step when betting in a match like this regardless of who competes everything will not be able to be used as a benchmark.

It would be quite logical not to make any bets in friendly matches and we can only enjoy it because things like this cannot be guessed. I personally always skip friendly matches and for countries I also often skip the UEFA Country League because in my opinion this match is also no further than a friendly match for a country so the situation is the same so when a match like this takes place I prefer to just enjoy it without making any bets on it.

Montenegro vs FYR Macedonia

Montenegro StartXI: 4-2-3-1
Matija Šarkić; Marko Vukčević; Stefan Savić; Igor Vujačić; Risto Radunović; Marko Bakić; Stefan Lončar; Vladimir Jovović; Stevan Jovetić; Driton Camaj; Stefan Mugoša

FYR Macedonia StartXI: 3-5-2
Stole Dimitrievski; Gjoko Zajkov; Visar Musliu; Darko Velkovski; Darko Churlinov; Jani Atanasov; Enis Bardhi; Tihomir Kostadinov; Ezgjan Alioski; Bojan Miovski; Eljif Elmas


Cyprus vs Serbia

Cyprus StartXI: 3-4-3
Joel Mall; Andreas Karo; Alexander Gogić; Konstantinos Laifis; Stelios Andreou; Chambos Kyriakou; Ioannis Kousoulos; Anderson Correia; Loizos Loizou; Ioannis Pittas; Charalampos Charalampous

Serbia StartXI: 3-4-2-1
Predrag Rajković; Nikola Milenković; Erhan Mašović; Srđan Babić; Andrija Živković; Srđan Mijailović; Saša Lukić; Filip Kostić; Lazar Samardžić; Sergej Milinković-Savić; Aleksandar Mitrović


Sweden vs Albania

Sweden StartXI: 4-2-3-1
Robin Olsen; Emil Krafth; Carl Starfelt; Victor Lindelöf; Ludwig Augustinsson; Simon Olsson; Samuel Gustafson; Dejan Kulusevski; Emil Forsberg; Alexander Isak; Gustaf Nilsson

Albania StartXI: 4-2-3-1
Thomas Strakosha; Iván Balliu; Enea Mihaj; Berat Djimsiti; Mario Mitaj; Ylber Ramadani; Kristjan Asllani; Jasir Asani; Nedim Bajrami; Qazim Laci; Armando Broja

Sports betting, especially friendlies? Not for the timid. Its a game within a game - understanding the odds is just the start. Your underdog strategy with clear favorites? It shows you get it. Too often, the obvious value is a trap. Bookies may set the lines, but they dont write the story. We do. Its about finding those hiden edges, the potential others overlook.

That BTTS No with even matchups? Clever move. Goes against that "goals, goals, goals" mentality. Live betting, thats where the true test lies. Real-time analysis, split-second choices - thats the thrill. Friendlies are more volatile. But remember, opportunity comes from chaos. Profit isnt luck in this game. Its about having a system, seeing the angles, knowing where the real value hides. Theres always value to be found.

I agree with you. Most friendly games are used for experiment and that is why it is difficult to make a successful predictions whether in a country football or a club football. Most players always want to play and get rewarded for their efforts and to them friendly game cannot offer them this. Most importantly, these players are very conscious of sustaining an injury because they have more important games to play for their club. In addition, most coaches don't feature the best players due to personal sentiment and as a gambler when you make predictions you have certain players in mind and when such players are not featured it affects that outcome of the game and then create disappointment in the mind of the gambler.

I have a shocking revelation to make and that is, ever since I started gambler, I haven't won a multibet with friendly games but it is always difficult for me not to play because most times the odds can be juicy and so neglecting the odds by not playing is like loosing some bucks.  Sometimes, matches that aren't supposed to end draw, will end draw even when the opponent is not know for having a good football prowess. Well, gambler is always unpredictable but I think it is even "more unpredictable" during friendly matches.

If anyone is looking for a good match to watch tomorrow:



Unlike any other friendly match, Spain will use this game to make the final adjustments before Euro 24, while Brazil will play their second game under their new coach, and want to take advantage of the opportunity to find an ideal team for the Copa America

It's all set to be a great game
I'm studying the best bet here, I consider this match more difficult to predict than Brazil vs England

But this is the essence of live betting on friendly games. When one team has taken the lead, you need to bet on the one that loses at the moment when the odds become most favorable. In friendly games, coaches usually make a huge number of substitutions and the game is often turned over, so such bets can be profitable.

Friendlies are quite random since there is not a reward by winning it or a punishment in the other case. It is like a test mode for the coach and his players, using some tactics and giving a chance for new ones to prove themselves, it depends from the teams and coaches obviously but this is applicable for most scenarios.
Placing a live bet is a better idea but it is not that perfect either because the team that usually score faster end up by losing the game. Well this wasn't applied here but still applicable worldwide.

The lack of stakes and intensity in friendly matches can indeed lead to teams experimenting with tactics, giving playing time to less experienced players, or simply not performing at their peak level. Regarding the Al Nassr - Inter Miami match exemplifies this sentiment. This discrepancy in motivation and effort can lead to unpredictable outcomes that makes friendly matches less reliable for betting purposes.

Placing bets on renowned competitions like the UEFA Champions League or prominent domestic leagues offers a more stable and competitive environment for betting. The higher stakes, consistent level of competition, and familiarity with teams and players make these matches more conducive to informed betting decisions. Bettors need to assess the context and significance of matches before placing bets, considering factors such as team motivation, lineup changes, and recent form. Friendly matches can provide entertainment, but they may not always offer the same level of predictability or reliability for betting purposes as competitive fixtures.