Topic: FreeBitco.in-$200 FreeBTC🏎Win Lambo🔥0.2BTC DailyJackpot🏆$32,500 Wager Contest - page 206. (Read 405317 times)

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No problem, I'm always happy to clarify that anyway.

I stand corrected, my mistake, confused this with another thread, post deleted.

There are no adverts and the dice game is provably fair. The free rolls are free to play and you are guaranteed to get a reward so it definitely is giving free money.

The thing with the half probability is easy: They generate a number from 0 to 4,294,967,296 and then divide it by 429,496.7296 resulting in a number from 0 to 10,000 which is then rounded giving the rolled number. All numbers from 0 to 0.4999999... will be rounded down to 0 resulting in a rolled 0. All numbers from 9,999.5 to 10,000 will be rounded up and result in a rolled 10,000. If I now look for example at the 5,000, it is being rolled either if a number from 4,999.5 to 5,000 is rounded up or if a number from 5,000 to 5,000.499999... is rounded down. In other words a 0 can only be resched by rounding down and a 10,000 only by rounding up while every other number can be reached either by rounding up or down. Therefore the 0 and the 10,000 are only half as probable as all other numbers.

To the average: There is only ONE AVERAGE. Of course if you roll, there is always a probability not hitting average, but the more often you roll the more close your average claim amount gets to the global average. To demonstrate the calculation of the global average lets assume all numbers were equally probabale because that easies the calculations. Because of this I assume all numbers would be rolled exactly once to make all numbers appear exactly with the same probability as proposed. Then I sum up all rewards I would get by rolling each number once and divide by 10,001, because I summed up the rewards of 10,001 numbers.

If this is still unclear, please read some literature about stochastics, because I don't think I can explain this very well in this thread, but I am 100% sure that my calculations are correct.

The problem with this statement is that your expected value depends on the number of events you count to get it. Change that number and your expected value will change as well. In other words, you have as many different expected values (or average as you call them) as the number of events you count in your series.

By the way it is not clear to me why 0 and 10k should have only half of the probability in respect of all the other numbers.

What you are saying is absolutly true. Every roll is an independent event, so the chance to roll a 10000 is always the same. The statistical average can be calculated easy:
You multiply every reward with it's probability and sum them up. You have to note for this that the 0 and the 10000 have only half the probability as all other numbers. (That was discussed multiple times before and is true!) By doing this you basically assume that in 20000 rolls you will roll one time the 0 and the 10000 and two times all other numbers. Of course you can roll 20000 without rolling the 10000 once, but you can also roll the 10000 one, two three ... times in the 20000 rolls. By calculating the average you calculate these fluctuations out. If you roll infinite times you will hit exactly the average and if you roll like 2000000 times, you will get close to it.

If you are a legit player, you roll maybe 15 times a day. With this speed you need almost 370 years to get to 2000000 rolls, but if you are a bot user with 1000 bots that claim 24/7, you get 2000000 rolls in less than 90 days! Therefore legit players can't really calculate with the AVERAGE claim amount because they would need just way too long to get to an amount of claims where the fluctuations are negliable. A bot user can claculate with the AVERAGE claim amount because he will reach a very large amount of claims in a few months.

Because of this a legit user is motly affected by the minimum claim amount and the lower reward stages. A bot user can calculate with a income close to statistical AVERAGE because of negliable statistical fluctuations and is therfore mostly affected by the higher reward stages and not the minimum reward.

Since only the minimum reward was changed, bot users are only a bit affected by it. It's all pure statistics.

Hi AuXmen

A couple of post about the rebrand.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.29357972
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.29578182

wetsuit is busy with other things at the moment and expects to get started on the rebrand around June. It means recoding the whole site from the ground up so there's no estimate how long that will take.

Merging in Doge and adding Bcash and other alts are very much part of the plan.

I wouldn't worry about all the people posting here that they're going to leave the site because we don't give them as much free money as they want. That's mainly just temper tantrums and our stats tell us we're doing great.

Hi
Is there any news/progress about Crypteer.com?
Yes this is my fist post on bitcointalk, but im here since 2015, and im registered with freebitcoin even before that, so i am not newbie in the matter.
All i want to say is that i remember you was going to expand the site with Doge and Bitcoincash, so i am holding these altcoins, waiting for news. I read this topic everyday morning before work with coffe in my other hand, and i see a big red flare right now in those posts, not because of you, but because of people leaving this site...
I dont want assurance, as it doesnt mean shit in this anonymous cryptoworld that we love and hate, i just hope that you keep us informed about this project future.
Thank you for your reply

What does it say in the post you quoted from me?

---

What I told you a couple of hours ago. It is a never-ending battle.

I wouldn't be so sure. If each roll is an independent event (and very likely this is the case), the chance to get a 10.000 is always the same regardless of the number of rolls you make. And it is equal to the chance to get every other number.

In my opinion is also wrong your assumed average: you can easily roll 10.000 getting always the min amount. Then, if you want to support your theory and you want to come to the average you say by including in the sample rolls paid more than the min (but having the same chance to happen of all the others) you are simply choosing an arbitrary interval and produced a biased result.

All of this if each event (=roll) is set as an independent one. If you evidence that is not so, please let me know

are the bot stop?

oh absolutely. and like i said, i love the way freebitco.in works.

however, 999dice actually does give 50% referral and coinpot.co kind of does too via the faucets that pay into it (all 25% - 50% referral commission)
but you are right, their house edge is so low that they dont have any scope to give rewards or lottery tickets or pay interest
i suppose it just depends if you value those over essentially losing 5% on every roll (over the long run)

you mean now we can claim the reward like before, is it?

Due to the unpopularity of the change wetsuit has decided to remove the RP redemption restrictions and try and figure out another way of fighting the botnets.

@solosss
You can ask your mummy to dry your tears away and change your nappy now.

You seemed to have missed the important part of what I was saying. It is an ongoing battle where every move we make they do something different and we have to change what we do in response.

so what next if bot stop?

Every satoshi a bot takes is one less that we can give to a legitimate player. The next move is to see how the botnet operators respond and then counter their next move. This is what we have been doing for nearly 5 years now. Most of the actions haven't affected other players but sometimes that is unavoidable.

That is an unfortunate side effect of being attacked by bots. We are happy that we have found a way to maintain full payouts to those customers that do gamble.

it will affect to all user who don't gambling, not only bot. And almost user is not gamble.