Fundamental analysis thread - page 3.

halfawake

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Quote from: niko on June 09, 2013, 07:21:07 AM

Quote from: Peter Lambert on June 08, 2013, 11:31:12 PM

Quote from: niko on June 08, 2013, 01:31:56 PM

Quote from: arklan on June 07, 2013, 05:34:05 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

we've seen quite a few dectuples already

Many in the last wave of bitcoiners allowed jealousy to blind them and do not see the fact that they are effectively in the same position as the early adopters were in.

i still think that anyone getting in now IS an early adopter...

True, but sad. It shows that not much has happened since ~2010 to realize the potential of this new technology. Once this thread has been updated (if at all) with a wave of major merchants accepting BTC, and things like bitcoin card actually in people's hands - it will be too late to be an early adopter.

I would not say nothing has happened since 2010. There seems to be much better infrastructure around bitcoins now than when I started using it in 2011, they are more useful and easier to use now.

I agree, that is why I said "not much" - exchanges and merchants come, but most of them go away. Some stay. BitPay is certainly doing a great service to us all, and earning a buck along the way. Great. Paysius and other competitors appear dormant. Not good. Few donation-accepting entities have done quite well. There are more open-source clients to choose from now than in ~2010. Great. But there have been no breakthroughs, just many small steps. Are we going to outpace the inevitable disasters, by growing strong and diverse enough so they don't do much damage? Right now, politics of development are one such potential disaster, with lots of ugly and boneheaded disagreements regarding block size, for example.
I'd say we've been moving too slowly, with lots of amateurish and naive mistakes and empty promises. In this technological era, four years is a long time. It's time to grow up.

It may seem slow now looking forward, but I'd say going from a brand new currency four years ago to a $1.1 billion dollar market today is pretty damn impressive. Yes, some bitcoin businesses are succeeding, others are failing. That's totally normal. Remember that something like 90% of businesses that are started fail, so this isn't any different than any different market.

niko

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There is more to Bitcoin than bitcoins.

American Drug Enforcement Administration arrested a drug dealer and seized - among other stuff - 11 bitcoins. Thus, bitcoins are treated by the government agents much like any other valuable asset.

http://www.theverge.com/2013/6/26/4468302/drug-enforcement-agency-seizes-11-bitcoins-in-south-carolina-bust-silk-road

==============

Government of Germany declares capital gains from bitcoins tax-free if bitcoins were held for more than a year.

Quote

According to German news site Die Welt, financial expert Frank Schaeffler stated: “It is good that investment in bitcoins is finally [a] legal certainty. Private profits from the sale of bitcoins are tax-free after one year”.

http://www.coindesk.com/german-government-relieves-capital-gains-tax-on-bitcoin-positions/

niko

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There is more to Bitcoin than bitcoins.

Quote from: Peter Lambert on June 08, 2013, 11:31:12 PM

Quote from: niko on June 08, 2013, 01:31:56 PM

Quote from: arklan on June 07, 2013, 05:34:05 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

we've seen quite a few dectuples already

Many in the last wave of bitcoiners allowed jealousy to blind them and do not see the fact that they are effectively in the same position as the early adopters were in.

i still think that anyone getting in now IS an early adopter...

True, but sad. It shows that not much has happened since ~2010 to realize the potential of this new technology. Once this thread has been updated (if at all) with a wave of major merchants accepting BTC, and things like bitcoin card actually in people's hands - it will be too late to be an early adopter.

I would not say nothing has happened since 2010. There seems to be much better infrastructure around bitcoins now than when I started using it in 2011, they are more useful and easier to use now.

I agree, that is why I said "not much" - exchanges and merchants come, but most of them go away. Some stay. BitPay is certainly doing a great service to us all, and earning a buck along the way. Great. Paysius and other competitors appear dormant. Not good. Few donation-accepting entities have done quite well. There are more open-source clients to choose from now than in ~2010. Great. But there have been no breakthroughs, just many small steps. Are we going to outpace the inevitable disasters, by growing strong and diverse enough so they don't do much damage? Right now, politics of development are one such potential disaster, with lots of ugly and boneheaded disagreements regarding block size, for example.
I'd say we've been moving too slowly, with lots of amateurish and naive mistakes and empty promises. In this technological era, four years is a long time. It's time to grow up.

Peter Lambert

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Activity: 756

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It's all fun and games until somebody loses an eye

Quote from: niko on June 08, 2013, 01:31:56 PM

Quote from: arklan on June 07, 2013, 05:34:05 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

we've seen quite a few dectuples already

Many in the last wave of bitcoiners allowed jealousy to blind them and do not see the fact that they are effectively in the same position as the early adopters were in.

i still think that anyone getting in now IS an early adopter...

True, but sad. It shows that not much has happened since ~2010 to realize the potential of this new technology. Once this thread has been updated (if at all) with a wave of major merchants accepting BTC, and things like bitcoin card actually in people's hands - it will be too late to be an early adopter.

I would not say nothing has happened since 2010. There seems to be much better infrastructure around bitcoins now than when I started using it in 2011, they are more useful and easier to use now.

molecular

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Activity: 2772

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Quote from: ?? on ??

we've seen quite a few dectuples already

Many in the last wave of bitcoiners allowed jealousy to blind them and do not see the fact that they are effectively in the same position as the early adopters were in.

I sense an evil grin.

niko

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 501

There is more to Bitcoin than bitcoins.

Quote from: arklan on June 07, 2013, 05:34:05 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

we've seen quite a few dectuples already

Many in the last wave of bitcoiners allowed jealousy to blind them and do not see the fact that they are effectively in the same position as the early adopters were in.

i still think that anyone getting in now IS an early adopter...

True, but sad. It shows that not much has happened since ~2010 to realize the potential of this new technology. Once this thread has been updated (if at all) with a wave of major merchants accepting BTC, and things like bitcoin card actually in people's hands - it will be too late to be an early adopter.

arklan

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Quote from: ?? on ??

we've seen quite a few dectuples already

Many in the last wave of bitcoiners allowed jealousy to blind them and do not see the fact that they are effectively in the same position as the early adopters were in.

i still think that anyone getting in now IS an early adopter...

Peter Lambert

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Activity: 756

Merit: 500

It's all fun and games until somebody loses an eye

Quote from: notme on June 06, 2013, 02:16:36 AM

Quote from: halfawake on June 05, 2013, 05:23:12 PM

Quote from: Peter Lambert on June 05, 2013, 05:17:33 PM

Quote from: halfawake on June 05, 2013, 01:47:36 AM

Did I hear a request for bearish news? Here you go: http://forexmagnates.com/coinlab-files-75-million-lawsuit-against-mtgox/

That seems like bullish news to me: any publicity is good publicity, and it is one step in getting rid of MtGox as the top exchange.

It all depends on your time frame. Short term, getting rid of MtGox (or lessening their influence) would probably make the price of bitcoin plummet. Long term, if a better exchange rises to the top, it could become much more stable and better / more liquid.

Their influence has already been dramatically lessened (just look at trade volume). Why aren't bitcoins cheap yet?

Bitcoins are cheap! Snatch them now before the rest of the world realizes they want them and the price dectuples a couple more times Cheesy

(My 7 year old daughter was asking the other day "so you have double for two, and triple for three, so what do you say if you have four times?" So I have been looking for places to use words like quadruple and quintuple and dectuple

)

Zangelbert Bingledack

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The price would only plummet if something happened to MtGox suddenly, either a complete shutdown or some kind of very damaging restriction or abrupt moves in that direction. Since the build up of pressure on MtGox has been gradual and on the fringes, and since for the most part there remains a clean line between the services that are getting shut down (noncompliant, questionable operations) and MtGox (about as compliant as they come, except for the US Dwolla incident, which so far seems contained).

The recent gradual shift away from MtGox as the central exchange is just what the doctor ordered and paves the way for further price gains. This is also a textbook example of anti-fragility, with Bitcoin (the Bitcoin ecosystem/community) immediately starting to repair its own most exposed weak point as soon as it was identified.

notme

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Quote from: halfawake on June 05, 2013, 05:23:12 PM

Quote from: Peter Lambert on June 05, 2013, 05:17:33 PM

Quote from: halfawake on June 05, 2013, 01:47:36 AM

Did I hear a request for bearish news? Here you go: http://forexmagnates.com/coinlab-files-75-million-lawsuit-against-mtgox/

That seems like bullish news to me: any publicity is good publicity, and it is one step in getting rid of MtGox as the top exchange.

It all depends on your time frame. Short term, getting rid of MtGox (or lessening their influence) would probably make the price of bitcoin plummet. Long term, if a better exchange rises to the top, it could become much more stable and better / more liquid.

Their influence has already been dramatically lessened (just look at trade volume). Why aren't bitcoins cheap yet?

halfawake

hero member

Activity: 490

Merit: 500

Quote from: Peter Lambert on June 05, 2013, 05:17:33 PM

Quote from: halfawake on June 05, 2013, 01:47:36 AM

Did I hear a request for bearish news? Here you go: http://forexmagnates.com/coinlab-files-75-million-lawsuit-against-mtgox/

That seems like bullish news to me: any publicity is good publicity, and it is one step in getting rid of MtGox as the top exchange.

It all depends on your time frame. Short term, getting rid of MtGox (or lessening their influence) would probably make the price of bitcoin plummet. Long term, if a better exchange rises to the top, it could become much more stable and better / more liquid.

Peter Lambert

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 500

It's all fun and games until somebody loses an eye

Quote from: halfawake on June 05, 2013, 01:47:36 AM

Did I hear a request for bearish news? Here you go: http://forexmagnates.com/coinlab-files-75-million-lawsuit-against-mtgox/

That seems like bullish news to me: any publicity is good publicity, and it is one step in getting rid of MtGox as the top exchange.

halfawake

hero member

Activity: 490

Merit: 500

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: notme on June 05, 2013, 02:48:53 AM

Quote from: halfawake on June 05, 2013, 01:47:36 AM

Did I hear a request for bearish news? Here you go: http://forexmagnates.com/coinlab-files-75-million-lawsuit-against-mtgox/

Welcome to a month ago Roll Eyes

bears are getting desperate

There's not much to eat in the hibernation den, so we've got to subsist on something these days.

notme

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Activity: 1904

Merit: 1002

Quote from: halfawake on June 05, 2013, 01:47:36 AM

Did I hear a request for bearish news? Here you go: http://forexmagnates.com/coinlab-files-75-million-lawsuit-against-mtgox/

Welcome to a month ago Roll Eyes

halfawake

hero member

Activity: 490

Merit: 500

Did I hear a request for bearish news? Here you go: http://forexmagnates.com/coinlab-files-75-million-lawsuit-against-mtgox/

Peter Lambert

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Activity: 756

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It's all fun and games until somebody loses an eye

Quote from: johnyj on May 31, 2013, 02:52:22 AM

People who want to get coin have 2 choices, either mine or buy.

You forgot the other ways to get bitcoins: work for them or scam other people for them.

johnyj

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Beyond Imagination

People who want to get coin have 2 choices, either mine or buy. When the difficulty is too high, they will buy, otherwise they will mine. If they mine they will increase the difficulty until a point that mining become unprofitable then they will buy again

Miners could still mine when not profitable, because they believe that price will rise in the future, but that just increase the difficulty for all the miners and eventually someone will just buy (If price will rise in the future anyway, buying now is the most simple decision)

molecular

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Quote from: notme on May 30, 2013, 09:12:44 PM

Quote from: molecular on May 30, 2013, 05:10:14 PM

Quote from: johnyj on May 30, 2013, 01:40:29 PM

For currency, supply and demand do not affect its value, it is mostly decided by the historical consensus

For bitcoin, there is a consensus of continuous appreciation due to limited supply, and that appreciation speed is largely related to the difficulty of the network

During 2012, most of the time the difficulty changed very slow, so does the exchange rate, but now when ASIC devices are being deployed, difficulty will rise at least 10-20 times, so does the exchange rate. I think current exchange rate already priced in the batch of ASIC chips that are going to hit the network during summer, unless there is a forecast of large increase of future difficulty, the exchange rate will be stable for a while

in case you're saying mining cost is the floor of bitcoin value you're making a bold claim. As bold as the claim of the goldbugs that golds inherent value stems from the energy that was used to mine it. At least logically that doesn't follow.

The relationship between exchange rate and difficulty exists, but it's more complex than what you imply it to be.

Price (combined with the $/hash of current top of the line mining hardware) puts a floor on difficulty. That is the only relationship that is real.

Yes, that's the stronges one.

However there is a subtle one that does go the other way: A non-profitable miner might continue to mine and hold the coins, however irrational this may be. This puts (albeit slight) resistance to a falling price. I know, it's not a hard "difficulty is rising therefore price must rise" (a view I've been fighting for years now), but it's a real effect.

notme

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Quote from: molecular on May 30, 2013, 05:10:14 PM

Quote from: johnyj on May 30, 2013, 01:40:29 PM

For currency, supply and demand do not affect its value, it is mostly decided by the historical consensus

For bitcoin, there is a consensus of continuous appreciation due to limited supply, and that appreciation speed is largely related to the difficulty of the network

During 2012, most of the time the difficulty changed very slow, so does the exchange rate, but now when ASIC devices are being deployed, difficulty will rise at least 10-20 times, so does the exchange rate. I think current exchange rate already priced in the batch of ASIC chips that are going to hit the network during summer, unless there is a forecast of large increase of future difficulty, the exchange rate will be stable for a while

in case you're saying mining cost is the floor of bitcoin value you're making a bold claim. As bold as the claim of the goldbugs that golds inherent value stems from the energy that was used to mine it. At least logically that doesn't follow.

The relationship between exchange rate and difficulty exists, but it's more complex than what you imply it to be.

Price (combined with the $/hash of current top of the line mining hardware) puts a floor on difficulty. That is the only relationship that is real.

molecular

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Activity: 2772

Merit: 1019

Quote from: johnyj on May 30, 2013, 01:40:29 PM

For currency, supply and demand do not affect its value, it is mostly decided by the historical consensus

For bitcoin, there is a consensus of continuous appreciation due to limited supply, and that appreciation speed is largely related to the difficulty of the network

During 2012, most of the time the difficulty changed very slow, so does the exchange rate, but now when ASIC devices are being deployed, difficulty will rise at least 10-20 times, so does the exchange rate. I think current exchange rate already priced in the batch of ASIC chips that are going to hit the network during summer, unless there is a forecast of large increase of future difficulty, the exchange rate will be stable for a while

in case you're saying mining cost is the floor of bitcoin value you're making a bold claim. As bold as the claim of the goldbugs that golds inherent value stems from the energy that was used to mine it. At least logically that doesn't follow.

The relationship between exchange rate and difficulty exists, but it's more complex than what you imply it to be.

Topic: Fundamental analysis thread - page 3. (Read 19888 times)