Topic: Fundamental analysis thread - page 8. (Read 19888 times)
Take a mark, good info.
Updated with Bitspend.net
Updated with "Coinlab Bringing Bitcoin to Wall Street with MtGox Deal"
When the optimal level of adoption is reached, a bitcoin hoard can no longer be regarded as an entrepreneural investment, so bitcoin will slowly move from the hoards to profit making investments in the real economy. That is a slow downwards pressure on the value of a bitcoin.
While "hoarding" bitcoins will no longer be an income generating investment, keeping "savings" in bitcoin will still be a way to avoid inflation. As the bitcoin economy matures, the volatility will decrease, which will make such a method of savings more secure as well. People using bitcoins as a savings vehicle will help maintain the price value over the long run.
Yes, still good for saving. To the advantage of widows and the fatherless.
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
It's all fun and games until somebody loses an eye
When the optimal level of adoption is reached, a bitcoin hoard can no longer be regarded as an entrepreneural investment, so bitcoin will slowly move from the hoards to profit making investments in the real economy. That is a slow downwards pressure on the value of a bitcoin.
While "hoarding" bitcoins will no longer be an income generating investment, keeping "savings" in bitcoin will still be a way to avoid inflation. As the bitcoin economy matures, the volatility will decrease, which will make such a method of savings more secure as well. People using bitcoins as a savings vehicle will help maintain the price value over the long run.
The value proposition for libertarians is indeed/literally unbelievable: "So yeah, you just put in a few grand, lie low for 5-10 years, and wake up fabulously wealthy in a technologically advanced libertopia."
On a fundamental basis, I see the freedom that bitcoin offers as being a huge inducement. I'd also like to see us move away from edge-exchanges when trying to 'value' bitcoin. The redeemable quality of bitcoin is an attraction right now, but I'd like to have just BTC to BTC transfers happening than any BTC --> Sovereign Currency trades.
You can't put a price on freedom, so fundamentally I see a bright future for bitcoin and its successors (if any).
I agree. When adoption is completed, there is still tons of reasons both to use and to save bitcoins. You can't put a price on freedom, so fundamentally I see a bright future for bitcoin and its successors (if any).
On a fundamental basis, I see the freedom that bitcoin offers as being a huge inducement. I'd also like to see us move away from edge-exchanges when trying to 'value' bitcoin. The redeemable quality of bitcoin is an attraction right now, but I'd like to have just BTC to BTC transfers happening than any BTC --> Sovereign Currency trades.
You can't put a price on freedom, so fundamentally I see a bright future for bitcoin and its successors (if any).
You can't put a price on freedom, so fundamentally I see a bright future for bitcoin and its successors (if any).
I totally agree. This is unprecedented, rewart/risk is higher than any other investment. A once in a lifetime opportunity.
That's about right, the long term fundamental outlook. Right now I have a hard time believing that there is a single opportunity in all of the financial industry that has more visible potential than BTC. The viability of a level headed investment on BTC comes from the visible risk of BTC being orders of magnityde lower than you would expect for something that has this much potential. Sugar on top, the risks have diminished considerably in the past year.
That this possibility exists is only possible because BTC is such a novel concept that it requires a considerable amount of expertise to assess not only the potential but much more importantly the risks.
That this possibility exists is only possible because BTC is such a novel concept that it requires a considerable amount of expertise to assess not only the potential but much more importantly the risks.
Long time fundamental forward outlook:
The value of a bitcoin will rise with adoption, until some optimal adoption level is achieved. On the way up, speculators who correctly foresee this level, will put an upward pressure to the value earlier.
If speculators erroneusly predict the optimal adoption level, the value may overshoot, and we will have a period with lower value.
When the optimal level of adoption is reached, a bitcoin hoard can no longer be regarded as an entrepreneural investment, so bitcoin will slowly move from the hoards to profit making investments in the real economy. That is a slow downwards pressure on the value of a bitcoin.
Additionally, economic events will happen around the world, creating volatility for bitcoin as it does for other currencies.
You will have to fill in the metrics for yourself, it is not really possible to predict.
The value of a bitcoin will rise with adoption, until some optimal adoption level is achieved. On the way up, speculators who correctly foresee this level, will put an upward pressure to the value earlier.
If speculators erroneusly predict the optimal adoption level, the value may overshoot, and we will have a period with lower value.
When the optimal level of adoption is reached, a bitcoin hoard can no longer be regarded as an entrepreneural investment, so bitcoin will slowly move from the hoards to profit making investments in the real economy. That is a slow downwards pressure on the value of a bitcoin.
Additionally, economic events will happen around the world, creating volatility for bitcoin as it does for other currencies.
You will have to fill in the metrics for yourself, it is not really possible to predict.
+ Mega & BitVoucher:
https://twitter.com/KimDotcom/status/302844443223023616
Just days after the Reddit announcement. Things are starting to unroll.
https://twitter.com/KimDotcom/status/302844443223023616
Just days after the Reddit announcement. Things are starting to unroll.
Thanks, I was lazy yesterday =P
Updated
+ Mega & BitVoucher:
https://twitter.com/KimDotcom/status/302844443223023616
Just days after the Reddit announcement. Things are starting to unroll.
https://twitter.com/KimDotcom/status/302844443223023616
Just days after the Reddit announcement. Things are starting to unroll.
Does the presence of the full blockchain on only a few machines make the Bitcoin network more vulnerable to fraudulent transactions?
It only makes sense to have the full blockchain if you are actively mining (and even then, can just have unspent inputs, full chain can be stored for archival purposes on several machines only). So thin clients should obviously be promoted on the bitcoin main site, when devs consider it is ready for wide adoption.
Bearish data: Scalability?
I'm not a technie but the whole scalability issue concerns me a bit. I don't know whether to believe Hearn et al. or Kaminsky.
All I do know is that it takes a long time to sync Bitcoin-qt on my laptop and Bitcoin hasn't yet been entered the mainstream. What happens when the number of transactions per day increases 10,000 fold?
I'm not a technie but the whole scalability issue concerns me a bit. I don't know whether to believe Hearn et al. or Kaminsky.
All I do know is that it takes a long time to sync Bitcoin-qt on my laptop and Bitcoin hasn't yet been entered the mainstream. What happens when the number of transactions per day increases 10,000 fold?
They use a wallet like blockchain.info. Most end users will never deal with a wallet on their computer, nor should they.
Bearish data: Scalability?
I'm not a technie but the whole scalability issue concerns me a bit. I don't know whether to believe Hearn et al. or Kaminsky.
All I do know is that it takes a long time to sync Bitcoin-qt on my laptop and Bitcoin hasn't yet been entered the mainstream. What happens when the number of transactions per day increases 10,000 fold?
I'm not a technie but the whole scalability issue concerns me a bit. I don't know whether to believe Hearn et al. or Kaminsky.
All I do know is that it takes a long time to sync Bitcoin-qt on my laptop and Bitcoin hasn't yet been entered the mainstream. What happens when the number of transactions per day increases 10,000 fold?
this is a good idea...
I think the ECB paper was a huge bullish event since journalists can now quote from a "trusted source" (lol, can't believe I said that) about bitcoin:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2012/11/03/ecb-roots-of-bitcoin-can-be-found-in-the-austrian-school-of-economics/
Do you also accept more general fundamental properties of bitcoin as bull-reasons? Here are a few for starters I wont back up with articles:
I think the ECB paper was a huge bullish event since journalists can now quote from a "trusted source" (lol, can't believe I said that) about bitcoin:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2012/11/03/ecb-roots-of-bitcoin-can-be-found-in-the-austrian-school-of-economics/
Do you also accept more general fundamental properties of bitcoin as bull-reasons? Here are a few for starters I wont back up with articles:
- Bitcoin is sound free market money with known supply for the people against authoritarian
- Bitcoin has low barrier to entry and can be used anonymously
- The network effect: bitcoin is viral interenet money
I agree Mol that the ECB paper was big for the reputation of the currency & knowledge among the "elites", but I won't include it here because I really want to limit it to only those events which will affect the price directly.
I don't think a background on the properties of bitcoin is possible/ desirable for within the confines of this thread. Most people get to this subforum because they already understand these things anyway.
Maybe you should consider slightly renaming this thread then, because I was thinking exactly of that (fundamental properties) when I read the title. Maybe something like: "fundamental events", I don't know...
Good call - I changed it to fundamental analysis
this is a good idea...
I think the ECB paper was a huge bullish event since journalists can now quote from a "trusted source" (lol, can't believe I said that) about bitcoin:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2012/11/03/ecb-roots-of-bitcoin-can-be-found-in-the-austrian-school-of-economics/
Do you also accept more general fundamental properties of bitcoin as bull-reasons? Here are a few for starters I wont back up with articles:
I think the ECB paper was a huge bullish event since journalists can now quote from a "trusted source" (lol, can't believe I said that) about bitcoin:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2012/11/03/ecb-roots-of-bitcoin-can-be-found-in-the-austrian-school-of-economics/
Do you also accept more general fundamental properties of bitcoin as bull-reasons? Here are a few for starters I wont back up with articles:
- Bitcoin is sound free market money with known supply for the people against authoritarian
- Bitcoin has low barrier to entry and can be used anonymously
- The network effect: bitcoin is viral interenet money
I agree Mol that the ECB paper was big for the reputation of the currency & knowledge among the "elites", but I won't include it here because I really want to limit it to only those events which will affect the price directly.
I don't think a background on the properties of bitcoin is possible/ desirable for within the confines of this thread. Most people get to this subforum because they already understand these things anyway.
Maybe you should consider slightly renaming this thread then, because I was thinking exactly of that (fundamental properties) when I read the title. Maybe something like: "fundamental events", I don't know...
this is a good idea...
I think the ECB paper was a huge bullish event since journalists can now quote from a "trusted source" (lol, can't believe I said that) about bitcoin:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2012/11/03/ecb-roots-of-bitcoin-can-be-found-in-the-austrian-school-of-economics/
Do you also accept more general fundamental properties of bitcoin as bull-reasons? Here are a few for starters I wont back up with articles:
I think the ECB paper was a huge bullish event since journalists can now quote from a "trusted source" (lol, can't believe I said that) about bitcoin:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2012/11/03/ecb-roots-of-bitcoin-can-be-found-in-the-austrian-school-of-economics/
Do you also accept more general fundamental properties of bitcoin as bull-reasons? Here are a few for starters I wont back up with articles:
- Bitcoin is sound free market money with known supply for the people against authoritarian
- Bitcoin has low barrier to entry and can be used anonymously
- The network effect: bitcoin is viral interenet money
I agree Mol that the ECB paper was big for the reputation of the currency & knowledge among the "elites", but I won't include it here because I really want to limit it to only those events which will affect the price directly.
I don't think a background on the properties of bitcoin is possible/ desirable for within the confines of this thread. Most people get to this subforum because they already understand these things anyway.
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