If Gavin goes, a substantial amount of the hash rate will follow him.
Take notice that not a single major pool has said otherwise.
All it will take is ONE major pool to jump, Bitcoin price will crash and the rest of the pools will switch.
Once any two major pools switch, it's game over for "Legacy Satoshi"
Gavin
Gavin has already lost this tug of war.
His inability to accept a consensus he disagrees with has been exposed. His duplicity, in the form of spawning XT in spooky/smokey VC backroom deals with no warning on the normal channels, and managerial incompetence have been confirmed.
The Gavinista coup is DOA. They just don't know it yet.
No effective strategy or device exists to counter Mircea's 'GavinCoin Short' WMD:
As the Giga-blockchain and main-blockchain continue to grow from the fork, those actively attacking the Giga-Blockchain will create many transactions that allow their main-blockchain coins to duplicate over to the Giga-blockchain while remaining safely on the main-blockchain. The transactions that succeed can then be used to acquire more main-blockchain coins upon which the cycle repeats. Eventually the blockchain with the most financial resources behind it will continue to grow at a faster pace, while the other slowly, and eventually stops growing altogether.
It will be impossible for the Giga-chain to keep 1:1 parity with the main chain from which it forks, they contain different transaction, although some may overlap. Here a user broadcasts a transaction with inputs originating on the Main-chain, and is eventually included in a block on the Giga-chain, but not on the Main-chain. The coin is essentially duplicated onto both chains.
Those siding with the wrong chain who end up accepting duplicated transactions from the other chain, such as a purchase from an exchange running on the losing blockchain, will lose those coins when the dust settles. No war is without casulties, the Great Blockchain Civil War will be no different.
It is by Lord Satoshi's sublime design Bitcoin grants all possible advantages to its defenders, and places all possible economic and technical burdens on attackers.