GBTC Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer - page 81.

wachtwoord

legendary

Activity: 2324

Merit: 1125

Quote from: Mobius on August 02, 2014, 06:01:17 PM

Quote from: wachtwoord on July 31, 2014, 05:31:16 AM

They keep accumulating

I would say that is not necessarily true. If investors want to cash out then the trust will need to sell bitcoin. It is very similar to people holding their bitcoin at an exchange, just in much larger amounts.

Nah, this is aimed at long term investing while an account balance at an exchange is aimed at trading.

Mobius

hero member

Activity: 988

Merit: 1000

Quote from: wachtwoord on July 31, 2014, 05:31:16 AM

They keep accumulating

I would say that is not necessarily true. If investors want to cash out then the trust will need to sell bitcoin. It is very similar to people holding their bitcoin at an exchange, just in much larger amounts.

DjPxH

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Quote from: wachtwoord on July 31, 2014, 05:31:16 AM

They keep accumulating

Very good thing! I hope they keep doing that and maybe even ramp-up their speed when fall comes around the corner!

wachtwoord

legendary

Activity: 2324

Merit: 1125

They keep accumulating

ensurance982

hero member

Activity: 518

Merit: 500

Trust me!

Quote from: jl2012 on July 30, 2014, 12:08:53 PM

updated

So we've gained a couple BTC, that's a very good sign in these uncertain times of a missing bubble, I'd say. Grin

jl2012

legendary

Activity: 1792

Merit: 1111

updated

wachtwoord

legendary

Activity: 2324

Merit: 1125

And again >300BTC in 2 days flat

jl2012

legendary

Activity: 1792

Merit: 1111

The fund is growing quite steadily

Kipsy89

sr. member

Activity: 280

Merit: 250

Relax!

Quote from: wachtwoord on July 22, 2014, 04:28:57 PM

Quote from: Kipsy89 on July 22, 2014, 04:20:07 PM

Quote from: wachtwoord on July 22, 2014, 04:17:26 PM

Quote from: jl2012 on July 22, 2014, 12:03:24 PM

About 100XBT bought in the last 3 trading days

Picking up the pace again. After the holiday season it will do so even more I reckon.

Yeah wondered why there is no action anymore! It's flatlining, not very healthy for our rocket ship! When do you think the summer is over - in terms of bitcoin investments starting again?

I'm not sure whether this is really the case, I merely suspect this. I'm a lot more sure that the flat-line was due to the auction though

Yeah a silence before the auction makes totally sense!

But I also believe there's something to the theory that the hot summer just puts bitcoin on pause. Everyone's on vacation and rests their minds from those shiny golden coins we love so much!

wachtwoord

legendary

Activity: 2324

Merit: 1125

Quote from: Kipsy89 on July 22, 2014, 04:20:07 PM

Quote from: wachtwoord on July 22, 2014, 04:17:26 PM

Quote from: jl2012 on July 22, 2014, 12:03:24 PM

About 100XBT bought in the last 3 trading days

Picking up the pace again. After the holiday season it will do so even more I reckon.

Yeah wondered why there is no action anymore! It's flatlining, not very healthy for our rocket ship! When do you think the summer is over - in terms of bitcoin investments starting again?

I'm not sure whether this is really the case, I merely suspect this. I'm a lot more sure that the flat-line was due to the auction though

Kipsy89

sr. member

Activity: 280

Merit: 250

Relax!

Quote from: wachtwoord on July 22, 2014, 04:17:26 PM

Quote from: jl2012 on July 22, 2014, 12:03:24 PM

About 100XBT bought in the last 3 trading days

Picking up the pace again. After the holiday season it will do so even more I reckon.

Yeah wondered why there is no action anymore! It's flatlining, not very healthy for our rocket ship! When do you think the summer is over - in terms of bitcoin investments starting again?

wachtwoord

legendary

Activity: 2324

Merit: 1125

Quote from: jl2012 on July 22, 2014, 12:03:24 PM

About 100XBT bought in the last 3 trading days

Picking up the pace again. After the holiday season it will do so even more I reckon.

RobertDJ

full member

Activity: 155

Merit: 100

Quote from: wachtwoord on July 03, 2014, 03:35:59 PM

Quote from: BitchicksHusband on July 03, 2014, 03:33:06 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on July 03, 2014, 05:04:49 AM

Quote from: windjc on July 03, 2014, 03:13:39 AM

RE: the lowballers - I believe a couple of points - A) they were surprised they lost or lost by a lot. B) losing makes you want something more C) by bidding they acknowledge to themselves that they would like to own more.

They don't know by how much they lost, unless Tim Draper or some higher bidder told them.

Most, if not all, of the losing bidders probably were not "people who wanted more coins" but "people who saw a chance to make easy money if they were lucky and got some coins well below market" (like that guy who bid at 403$).

Anyone who has that sort of money and believes that the price will go significantly higher than market should be buying on the exchanges, auction or no auction, until the market price got higher. The fact that the price is now more or less stable ~650$, for example, means that everyone who still has money in hand expects to lose money if he bought for more than that.

So I don't think that any of the bidders, not even Draper, bid above 600$ (the max market price on Jun/27); and in fact I believe that they all bid at 550$ or lower. An investor who got the coins at 550$ would be expecting to make 150'000$ profit, from gambling ~~1.8~~ 1.65 million; or 1.5 million profit, from gambling 18 16.5 million.; which to me does not seem quite enough to justify entering such an uncertain venture. Note that they were putting their own millions in the game, not someone else's.

By the same reasoning, if the auction was today, I believe that there would be no bid higher than 600$.

It's already been calculated that Second Market's losing bid was $665.

No that has been refuted. It isn't possible to deduce their bid from the information they gave.

I think there is an argument for second market to disclose their bid so their investors can get a better idea as to what they should bid in the future when there are more similar auctions.

jl2012

legendary

Activity: 1792

Merit: 1111

About 100XBT bought in the last 3 trading days

BitAddict

legendary

Activity: 1190

Merit: 1001

Quote from: jl2012 on July 16, 2014, 09:18:55 PM

About 600XBT bought since 10-Jul-14

Wohooo!!
Finally some action.

Thanks for the update.

jl2012

legendary

Activity: 1792

Merit: 1111

About 600XBT bought since 10-Jul-14

wachtwoord

legendary

Activity: 2324

Merit: 1125

So this flat-lined as well. Must be summer Wink

JorgeStolfi

hero member

Activity: 910

Merit: 1003

Quote from: BitchicksHusband on July 03, 2014, 03:33:06 PM

It's already been calculated that Second Market's losing bid was $665.

How did they figure out that SM bid just 1$ below the winning bid? Wink

BitAddict

legendary

Activity: 1190

Merit: 1001

Quote from: wachtwoord on July 03, 2014, 03:35:59 PM

Quote from: BitchicksHusband on July 03, 2014, 03:33:06 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on July 03, 2014, 05:04:49 AM

Quote from: windjc on July 03, 2014, 03:13:39 AM

RE: the lowballers - I believe a couple of points - A) they were surprised they lost or lost by a lot. B) losing makes you want something more C) by bidding they acknowledge to themselves that they would like to own more.

They don't know by how much they lost, unless Tim Draper or some higher bidder told them.

Most, if not all, of the losing bidders probably were not "people who wanted more coins" but "people who saw a chance to make easy money if they were lucky and got some coins well below market" (like that guy who bid at 403$).

Anyone who has that sort of money and believes that the price will go significantly higher than market should be buying on the exchanges, auction or no auction, until the market price got higher. The fact that the price is now more or less stable ~650$, for example, means that everyone who still has money in hand expects to lose money if he bought for more than that.

So I don't think that any of the bidders, not even Draper, bid above 600$ (the max market price on Jun/27); and in fact I believe that they all bid at 550$ or lower. An investor who got the coins at 550$ would be expecting to make 150'000$ profit, from gambling ~~1.8~~ 1.65 million; or 1.5 million profit, from gambling 18 16.5 million.; which to me does not seem quite enough to justify entering such an uncertain venture. Note that they were putting their own millions in the game, not someone else's.

By the same reasoning, if the auction was today, I believe that there would be no bid higher than 600$.

It's already been calculated that Second Market's losing bid was $665.

No that has been refuted. It isn't possible to deduce their bid from the information they gave.

Also is impossible that Second Market bid was over bitcoin price. Remember it was for mid players, that kind of player could instantly buy at market price (plus their fees) in Second Market. Why they would pay 15% extra over bitcoin price and 5% fee to Second Market.... makes no sense.

wachtwoord

legendary

Activity: 2324

Merit: 1125

Quote from: BitchicksHusband on July 03, 2014, 03:33:06 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on July 03, 2014, 05:04:49 AM

Quote from: windjc on July 03, 2014, 03:13:39 AM

RE: the lowballers - I believe a couple of points - A) they were surprised they lost or lost by a lot. B) losing makes you want something more C) by bidding they acknowledge to themselves that they would like to own more.

They don't know by how much they lost, unless Tim Draper or some higher bidder told them.

Most, if not all, of the losing bidders probably were not "people who wanted more coins" but "people who saw a chance to make easy money if they were lucky and got some coins well below market" (like that guy who bid at 403$).

Anyone who has that sort of money and believes that the price will go significantly higher than market should be buying on the exchanges, auction or no auction, until the market price got higher. The fact that the price is now more or less stable ~650$, for example, means that everyone who still has money in hand expects to lose money if he bought for more than that.

So I don't think that any of the bidders, not even Draper, bid above 600$ (the max market price on Jun/27); and in fact I believe that they all bid at 550$ or lower. An investor who got the coins at 550$ would be expecting to make 150'000$ profit, from gambling ~~1.8~~ 1.65 million; or 1.5 million profit, from gambling 18 16.5 million.; which to me does not seem quite enough to justify entering such an uncertain venture. Note that they were putting their own millions in the game, not someone else's.

By the same reasoning, if the auction was today, I believe that there would be no bid higher than 600$.

It's already been calculated that Second Market's losing bid was $665.

No that has been refuted. It isn't possible to deduce their bid from the information they gave.

Topic: GBTC Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer - page 81. (Read 262357 times)