Topic: GBTC Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer - page 82. (Read 262379 times)

That's not true.

It's already been calculated that Second Market's losing bid was $665.

Not that arrogant, I consider you to be one of the smartest people on here.

And my point is that those "100s of million USD" are not guaranteed to buy in, although I assume that, long term, there's at least a fair chance they will.

I see your point. As in: only X coins were at stake, but a multiple of X was actually at stake because of frozen bids.

They don't know by how much they lost, unless Tim Draper or some higher bidder told them.

Most, if not all, of the losing bidders probably were not "people who wanted more coins" but "people who saw a chance to make easy money if they were lucky and got some coins well below market" (like that guy who bid at 403$).  

Anyone who has that sort of money and believes that the price will go significantly higher than market should be buying on the exchanges, auction or no auction, until the market price got higher.  The fact that the price is now more or less stable ~650$, for example, means that everyone who still has money in hand expects to lose money if he bought for more than that.

So I don't think that any of the bidders, not even Draper, bid above 600$ (the max market price on Jun/27); and in fact I believe that they all bid at 550$ or lower.  An investor who got the coins at 550$ would be expecting to make 150'000$ profit, from gambling 1.8 1.65 million; or 1.5 million profit, from gambling 18 16.5 million.; which to me does not seem quite enough to justify entering such an uncertain venture.  Note that they were putting their own millions in the game, not someone else's.

By the same reasoning, if the auction was today, I believe that there would be no bid higher than 600$.

following

Actually even this point is invalid. All bidders, no matter opportunistic or not, needed to have 100% of their bidding amount ready in cash, as they only had 1 day to pay if they won. Although "merely" 29600 coins were sold, 100s of million USD was effectively frozen for over 2 weeks.

This next point is going to sound arrogant (probably because it is but at least I acknowledge it  ) but one thing becoming a quasi-expert in crypto has taught me is that a lot of people are not as smart as you would assume they are. Its such an interesting social phenomena to behold. I have learned so much about humans (and to a point, many things about myself).

Complete agreement. It still, kind of, fits my point: they are 'opportunistic', in the sense that they will jump in once price is conclusively on the rise again, probably when approaching the previous ATH. But they won't jump in _now_, driving up the price in the first place.

So, if the point is that there's money sitting on the sidelines, waiting to buy in: I agree. Just not expecting it to happen before we're more securely in a bull market again.

I kinda agree literally with you, but not on point.

RE: the lowballers - I believe a couple of points - A) they were surprised they lost or lost by a lot.  B) losing makes you want something more C) by bidding they acknowledge to themselves that they would like to own more.

From this I conclude that some of these individuals will CERTAINLY buy more during the next bubble. Some of them will chase the price.

Because A) Human Nature and B) Some just aren't that smart really (ie Alex Waters)

I agree that Tera's claim that "the auction doesn't matter" was kind of naive. His point is, and it's a valid one, that the amount of coins auctioned is simply too small to be significant, when compared to what is mined, but what he ignores is that there is a very obvious psychological effect of the auction. In simple terms: the fact that he felt the need to post "stop talking about X, it doesn't matter" conclusively shows that X matters a lot, after all.

I don't buy the "losing bidders will now buy at market", though. If anything, the losing bids we know about seemed highly opportunistic to me. If price drops to $400, sure, they'll jump in, but at least from their bidding behavior I personally conclude that they're not in a hurry to buy more at market price at the exchanges.

Such are the trolls. The auction left 44 disappointed bidders with 10s, if not 100s, of million USD ready for buying bitcoin. Even only 10% of these USD will actually buy on the market, that should push us to $700; and we have already see this effect in BIT on the first 2 days of July

such are the cultists...

lol   "30K coins are... a mere 0.22% of coins - it is nothing" - Tera

Yet (s)he tracks squiggly lines created by dozens of coins..to predict the future

Yes, those claiming the auction not significant were completely delusional ( https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/stop-talking-about-the-damn-sr-coins-it-is-the-least-significant-price-mover-665961 )

Woot.

"So basically at least USD$20MM of bitcoin buying demand went unsatisfied in the auction and will look elsewhere to buy bitcoins i.e. market" Alan Silbert

 

Lets hope this trend continues.

406XBT bought. This is the biggest buy in the past 2 months

Agree. Hope to see SM bitcoins number increasing. 

As many BIT customers failed to bid, we have see some action this week