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Topic: Global Financial Crisis scenarios - page 3. (Read 15914 times)

legendary
Activity: 1918
Merit: 1018
October 10, 2014, 05:06:37 AM
Hard to say which way bitcoin will go.

Remember, during the last crisis, even gold and oil went down quite a bit.

Gold has been going up during the years leading to the house crisis, what was a bit surprising to some was to see the USD going up as well

What do you mean by the USD going up - the USD index, i.e. dollar going up against other major currencies?

Yes

So, as long as USDX is not going down, treasuries are ok (i.e. the debt can keep on growing) as well as the U.S. economy, right?
Hypothetically. This could mean everyone is killing their currency faster than the USA.

However, countries with the exchange rate being lowered are now at an advantage. As they export goods, they can pay their employees more, and 80% of the time the purchasing power of the currency stays the same, unless something REALLY goes to crap.

If they start paying their employees more, that would cause inflation, and the purchasing power of the currency will not stay the same, especially if this process takes on (future expectations on inflation would invariably kick in).

If your currency is depreciating, you may export more nominally but what about in value?
If your currency is depreciating, the inputs you use to produce your product are going to increase in price (nominally) so you will have to increase your price
Your employees are going to need increased wages since the prices are going to go up in the country, if they don't, the fact that the currency depreciated is bad for the employees thus for most people
legendary
Activity: 1918
Merit: 1018
September 22, 2014, 03:14:46 PM

The financial crisis took out a few players (banks / investment banks) in the credit market. The absence of these financial intermediaries would have resulted in lower credit being available to main street. Rates would also have risen, with banks not willing to take on additional risk. QE was supposed to ensure that this did not happen, by making ample liquidity available in the system.

So, in the worst case, QE just didn't work out since there was not much demand for credit from the "main street", but it didn't make it worse either, right?

It hasn't made it worse, but its efficacy was low.

QE and low interest rates postponed the crisis but it is going to be worse and will probably end up in hyper inflation and wars
I really don't see QE and wars being linked, especially since most of the modernized world has engaged in some kind of QE (neither wars fought with military or economic/trade wars). Also the fact that banks are keeping the majority of the money they get from QE as excess reserves at the federal reserve is preventing inflation from getting out of hand.

Fiat allows bigger and more expensive wars; QE and low interest rates is a way not to be honest about the situation and to hide the problems for a while; when the problems will come back and be bigger, the politicians will not accept it and say they were wrong.
QE+low interest rates manipulate the markets heavily which can come back in the form of frustration, protests or wars.

In the US the politicians tend to regulate for the big banks and the big corporations such as the military industry; wars are good for the former so wars are made. Politicians are often sociopaths who want to control everyone so they are likely to start wars when their fallacious economic actions are unsucessful
It sounds like you are implying that QE allows for governments to borrow at artificially low interest rates in order to pay for wars. Although this is technically true this has not happened, but rather the opposite. The US has withdrawn from one War (Iraq) and has not entered into really any conflicts since QE started. Instead the US and much of europe has used QE for social programs to give away money to the lazy and less successful.

The money given to the social programs is small when comparing to money given to the defense industry.

Beside, much of the social programs were paid by taxpayers having the money deduct every month from the paycheck, I won't call it "free" money.

Most social programs are funded by the majority of the people and consumed by few (although "few" is expanding at a dangerous rate today). I was referring to programs like disability insurance, food stamps, welfare, unemployment insurance and the like. Disability for example rarely sees anyone ever drop from it's roles once someone starts receiving benefits.

All taxes are taken from an employee's paycheck every month as they are required to pay taxes based on their income.

There is not a dime that is given to the defense industry. There are defense contractors that receive payment for their goods that they produce to keep our country secure but this is far from being given to them. To further counter your argument, the amount spent on social programs far exceeds the total defense budget.

Maybe there is no need for that much money to secure the USA and money taken from the paycheck + taken to the employer is taken to the employee at the end because the employer considers all costs including the legal costs which are huge in the States, people would make 3times more after tax in average with lower taxes and lower regulation

When 100 is taken to an employee, most of it is consumed by the State and only a fraction is given away to the people
legendary
Activity: 966
Merit: 1004
CryptoTalk.Org - Get Paid for every Post!
August 17, 2014, 12:10:36 PM

The financial crisis took out a few players (banks / investment banks) in the credit market. The absence of these financial intermediaries would have resulted in lower credit being available to main street. Rates would also have risen, with banks not willing to take on additional risk. QE was supposed to ensure that this did not happen, by making ample liquidity available in the system.

So, in the worst case, QE just didn't work out since there was not much demand for credit from the "main street", but it didn't make it worse either, right?

It hasn't made it worse, but its efficacy was low.

QE and low interest rates postponed the crisis but it is going to be worse and will probably end up in hyper inflation and wars
I really don't see QE and wars being linked, especially since most of the modernized world has engaged in some kind of QE (neither wars fought with military or economic/trade wars). Also the fact that banks are keeping the majority of the money they get from QE as excess reserves at the federal reserve is preventing inflation from getting out of hand.

Fiat allows bigger and more expensive wars; QE and low interest rates is a way not to be honest about the situation and to hide the problems for a while; when the problems will come back and be bigger, the politicians will not accept it and say they were wrong.
QE+low interest rates manipulate the markets heavily which can come back in the form of frustration, protests or wars.

In the US the politicians tend to regulate for the big banks and the big corporations such as the military industry; wars are good for the former so wars are made. Politicians are often sociopaths who want to control everyone so they are likely to start wars when their fallacious economic actions are unsucessful
It sounds like you are implying that QE allows for governments to borrow at artificially low interest rates in order to pay for wars. Although this is technically true this has not happened, but rather the opposite. The US has withdrawn from one War (Iraq) and has not entered into really any conflicts since QE started. Instead the US and much of europe has used QE for social programs to give away money to the lazy and less successful.

The money given to the social programs is small when comparing to money given to the defense industry.

Beside, much of the social programs were paid by taxpayers having the money deduct every month from the paycheck, I won't call it "free" money.

Most social programs are funded by the majority of the people and consumed by few (although "few" is expanding at a dangerous rate today). I was referring to programs like disability insurance, food stamps, welfare, unemployment insurance and the like. Disability for example rarely sees anyone ever drop from it's roles once someone starts receiving benefits.

All taxes are taken from an employee's paycheck every month as they are required to pay taxes based on their income.

There is not a dime that is given to the defense industry. There are defense contractors that receive payment for their goods that they produce to keep our country secure but this is far from being given to them. To further counter your argument, the amount spent on social programs far exceeds the total defense budget.
full member
Activity: 141
Merit: 100
August 17, 2014, 01:49:04 AM

The financial crisis took out a few players (banks / investment banks) in the credit market. The absence of these financial intermediaries would have resulted in lower credit being available to main street. Rates would also have risen, with banks not willing to take on additional risk. QE was supposed to ensure that this did not happen, by making ample liquidity available in the system.

So, in the worst case, QE just didn't work out since there was not much demand for credit from the "main street", but it didn't make it worse either, right?

It hasn't made it worse, but its efficacy was low.

QE and low interest rates postponed the crisis but it is going to be worse and will probably end up in hyper inflation and wars
I really don't see QE and wars being linked, especially since most of the modernized world has engaged in some kind of QE (neither wars fought with military or economic/trade wars). Also the fact that banks are keeping the majority of the money they get from QE as excess reserves at the federal reserve is preventing inflation from getting out of hand.

Fiat allows bigger and more expensive wars; QE and low interest rates is a way not to be honest about the situation and to hide the problems for a while; when the problems will come back and be bigger, the politicians will not accept it and say they were wrong.
QE+low interest rates manipulate the markets heavily which can come back in the form of frustration, protests or wars.

In the US the politicians tend to regulate for the big banks and the big corporations such as the military industry; wars are good for the former so wars are made. Politicians are often sociopaths who want to control everyone so they are likely to start wars when their fallacious economic actions are unsucessful
It sounds like you are implying that QE allows for governments to borrow at artificially low interest rates in order to pay for wars. Although this is technically true this has not happened, but rather the opposite. The US has withdrawn from one War (Iraq) and has not entered into really any conflicts since QE started. Instead the US and much of europe has used QE for social programs to give away money to the lazy and less successful.

The money given to the social programs is small when comparing to money given to the defense industry.

Beside, much of the social programs were paid by taxpayers having the money deduct every month from the paycheck, I won't call it "free" money.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
August 17, 2014, 01:38:35 AM

The financial crisis took out a few players (banks / investment banks) in the credit market. The absence of these financial intermediaries would have resulted in lower credit being available to main street. Rates would also have risen, with banks not willing to take on additional risk. QE was supposed to ensure that this did not happen, by making ample liquidity available in the system.

So, in the worst case, QE just didn't work out since there was not much demand for credit from the "main street", but it didn't make it worse either, right?

It hasn't made it worse, but its efficacy was low.

QE and low interest rates postponed the crisis but it is going to be worse and will probably end up in hyper inflation and wars
I really don't see QE and wars being linked, especially since most of the modernized world has engaged in some kind of QE (neither wars fought with military or economic/trade wars). Also the fact that banks are keeping the majority of the money they get from QE as excess reserves at the federal reserve is preventing inflation from getting out of hand.

Fiat allows bigger and more expensive wars; QE and low interest rates is a way not to be honest about the situation and to hide the problems for a while; when the problems will come back and be bigger, the politicians will not accept it and say they were wrong.
QE+low interest rates manipulate the markets heavily which can come back in the form of frustration, protests or wars.

In the US the politicians tend to regulate for the big banks and the big corporations such as the military industry; wars are good for the former so wars are made. Politicians are often sociopaths who want to control everyone so they are likely to start wars when their fallacious economic actions are unsucessful
It sounds like you are implying that QE allows for governments to borrow at artificially low interest rates in order to pay for wars. Although this is technically true this has not happened, but rather the opposite. The US has withdrawn from one War (Iraq) and has not entered into really any conflicts since QE started. Instead the US and much of europe has used QE for social programs to give away money to the lazy and less successful.
They've been giving it to the lazy, less successful, and the rich, which include banks.  People that have invested in the stock, commodity, and especially bond markets (i.e., mostly the upper middle class and the rich) have made a lot of money off of QE.
legendary
Activity: 966
Merit: 1004
CryptoTalk.Org - Get Paid for every Post!
August 16, 2014, 02:52:57 PM

The financial crisis took out a few players (banks / investment banks) in the credit market. The absence of these financial intermediaries would have resulted in lower credit being available to main street. Rates would also have risen, with banks not willing to take on additional risk. QE was supposed to ensure that this did not happen, by making ample liquidity available in the system.

So, in the worst case, QE just didn't work out since there was not much demand for credit from the "main street", but it didn't make it worse either, right?

It hasn't made it worse, but its efficacy was low.

QE and low interest rates postponed the crisis but it is going to be worse and will probably end up in hyper inflation and wars
I really don't see QE and wars being linked, especially since most of the modernized world has engaged in some kind of QE (neither wars fought with military or economic/trade wars). Also the fact that banks are keeping the majority of the money they get from QE as excess reserves at the federal reserve is preventing inflation from getting out of hand.

Fiat allows bigger and more expensive wars; QE and low interest rates is a way not to be honest about the situation and to hide the problems for a while; when the problems will come back and be bigger, the politicians will not accept it and say they were wrong.
QE+low interest rates manipulate the markets heavily which can come back in the form of frustration, protests or wars.

In the US the politicians tend to regulate for the big banks and the big corporations such as the military industry; wars are good for the former so wars are made. Politicians are often sociopaths who want to control everyone so they are likely to start wars when their fallacious economic actions are unsucessful
It sounds like you are implying that QE allows for governments to borrow at artificially low interest rates in order to pay for wars. Although this is technically true this has not happened, but rather the opposite. The US has withdrawn from one War (Iraq) and has not entered into really any conflicts since QE started. Instead the US and much of europe has used QE for social programs to give away money to the lazy and less successful.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
August 16, 2014, 01:25:48 PM
Fiat allows bigger and more expensive wars than what?

Than no fiat

How do you figure?  The amount of resources needed to fight a war is the same, no matter what currency you're using.  A country using fiat will just spend more of their currency on the war, but they have more to begin with because they're presumably printing a lot of it.

Agreed that most politicians probably don't just try to start war : politicians do things that lead to wars and are manipulated by people that want war, it is very obvious in the Ukraine situation

That's very true, especially the part about politicians being manipulated by other people that want war.
legendary
Activity: 1582
Merit: 1064
August 15, 2014, 07:29:22 PM
War can actually result in bitcoin supply coming down as well, with a lot of private keys getting lost...
sr. member
Activity: 322
Merit: 250
August 15, 2014, 04:43:57 PM
If I had to choose a potential result because of such scenareo, I wouldn't know, im divided between bitcoin crashing hard, as people would panic too much to even bother with it, and I also predict it going sky rocket mode, because maybe people on that panic scenareo get that "do what it takes" trigger activated and they all find about Bitcoin and put their assets there hoping they will survive.
legendary
Activity: 1918
Merit: 1018
August 15, 2014, 11:14:56 AM

The financial crisis took out a few players (banks / investment banks) in the credit market. The absence of these financial intermediaries would have resulted in lower credit being available to main street. Rates would also have risen, with banks not willing to take on additional risk. QE was supposed to ensure that this did not happen, by making ample liquidity available in the system.

So, in the worst case, QE just didn't work out since there was not much demand for credit from the "main street", but it didn't make it worse either, right?

It hasn't made it worse, but its efficacy was low.

QE and low interest rates postponed the crisis but it is going to be worse and will probably end up in hyper inflation and wars
I really don't see QE and wars being linked, especially since most of the modernized world has engaged in some kind of QE (neither wars fought with military or economic/trade wars). Also the fact that banks are keeping the majority of the money they get from QE as excess reserves at the federal reserve is preventing inflation from getting out of hand.

Fiat allows bigger and more expensive wars; QE and low interest rates is a way not to be honest about the situation and to hide the problems for a while; when the problems will come back and be bigger, the politicians will not accept it and say they were wrong.
QE+low interest rates manipulate the markets heavily which can come back in the form of frustration, protests or wars.

In the US the politicians tend to regulate for the big banks and the big corporations such as the military industry; wars are good for the former so wars are made. Politicians are often sociopaths who want to control everyone so they are likely to start wars when their fallacious economic actions are unsucessful

Fiat allows bigger and more expensive wars than what?

I agree that poor economic policies can lead to wars, and that QE and low interest rates, when taken to excess, as it seems they have been, are poor economic policies.  But I don't think that politicians (at least most of them) just try to start wars like that.  When a country's economy collapses, that generally leads to a lot of unrest as the vast majority of people really get screwed (see Greece).  Some politicians may try to deflect that angry sentiment to their neighboring countries, which could lead to wars.  But I don't think that (most) politicians sit around trying to figure out how they can start wars.

Than no fiat

Agreed that most politicians probably don't just try to start war : politicians do things that lead to wars and are manipulated by people that want war, it is very obvious in the Ukraine situation
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
August 15, 2014, 08:30:51 AM

The financial crisis took out a few players (banks / investment banks) in the credit market. The absence of these financial intermediaries would have resulted in lower credit being available to main street. Rates would also have risen, with banks not willing to take on additional risk. QE was supposed to ensure that this did not happen, by making ample liquidity available in the system.

So, in the worst case, QE just didn't work out since there was not much demand for credit from the "main street", but it didn't make it worse either, right?

It hasn't made it worse, but its efficacy was low.

QE and low interest rates postponed the crisis but it is going to be worse and will probably end up in hyper inflation and wars
I really don't see QE and wars being linked, especially since most of the modernized world has engaged in some kind of QE (neither wars fought with military or economic/trade wars). Also the fact that banks are keeping the majority of the money they get from QE as excess reserves at the federal reserve is preventing inflation from getting out of hand.

Fiat allows bigger and more expensive wars; QE and low interest rates is a way not to be honest about the situation and to hide the problems for a while; when the problems will come back and be bigger, the politicians will not accept it and say they were wrong.
QE+low interest rates manipulate the markets heavily which can come back in the form of frustration, protests or wars.

In the US the politicians tend to regulate for the big banks and the big corporations such as the military industry; wars are good for the former so wars are made. Politicians are often sociopaths who want to control everyone so they are likely to start wars when their fallacious economic actions are unsucessful

Fiat allows bigger and more expensive wars than what?

I agree that poor economic policies can lead to wars, and that QE and low interest rates, when taken to excess, as it seems they have been, are poor economic policies.  But I don't think that politicians (at least most of them) just try to start wars like that.  When a country's economy collapses, that generally leads to a lot of unrest as the vast majority of people really get screwed (see Greece).  Some politicians may try to deflect that angry sentiment to their neighboring countries, which could lead to wars.  But I don't think that (most) politicians sit around trying to figure out how they can start wars.
legendary
Activity: 1918
Merit: 1018
August 15, 2014, 05:27:48 AM

The financial crisis took out a few players (banks / investment banks) in the credit market. The absence of these financial intermediaries would have resulted in lower credit being available to main street. Rates would also have risen, with banks not willing to take on additional risk. QE was supposed to ensure that this did not happen, by making ample liquidity available in the system.

So, in the worst case, QE just didn't work out since there was not much demand for credit from the "main street", but it didn't make it worse either, right?

It hasn't made it worse, but its efficacy was low.

QE and low interest rates postponed the crisis but it is going to be worse and will probably end up in hyper inflation and wars
I really don't see QE and wars being linked, especially since most of the modernized world has engaged in some kind of QE (neither wars fought with military or economic/trade wars). Also the fact that banks are keeping the majority of the money they get from QE as excess reserves at the federal reserve is preventing inflation from getting out of hand.

Fiat allows bigger and more expensive wars; QE and low interest rates is a way not to be honest about the situation and to hide the problems for a while; when the problems will come back and be bigger, the politicians will not accept it and say they were wrong.
QE+low interest rates manipulate the markets heavily which can come back in the form of frustration, protests or wars.

In the US the politicians tend to regulate for the big banks and the big corporations such as the military industry; wars are good for the former so wars are made. Politicians are often sociopaths who want to control everyone so they are likely to start wars when their fallacious economic actions are unsucessful
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 500
August 15, 2014, 02:09:55 AM
WRT Obama

Its an interesting question that can't be answered.   Abenomics did a bigger QE combined with big stimulus spending and that didn't seem to work either.

Some interesting proposals I've heard were things like job guarantee (employer of last resort) .   Its like a type of stimulus spending.   Google Pavlina Tcherneva.   
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
August 14, 2014, 09:49:22 PM
I'm not very familiar with the effects and aims of QEs, but if I'm not mistaken, one target of the "money printing" campaign was to liquidate toxic assets (read write off). If these funds made their way into the economy that would simply increase inflation rates (now we are heading well into exogenous vs endogenous money debate).

The financial crisis took out a few players (banks / investment banks) in the credit market. The absence of these financial intermediaries would have resulted in lower credit being available to main street. Rates would also have risen, with banks not willing to take on additional risk. QE was supposed to ensure that this did not happen, by making ample liquidity available in the system.

So, in the worst case, QE just didn't work out since there was not much demand for credit from the "main street", but it didn't make it worse either, right?

QE and 0% interest rate are propping up the market but they just postponed a much needed recession to eliminate bad debt, bad players and bad practices

How could zero interest rates be propping up the market if no one is/was willing to take loans? Is this what is called a "liquidity trap"?
No matter what the interest rate is, there's always someone who wants a loan.  So it's a question of how much demand there is for loans at the current rate.  And of course demand falls off as rates increase.  So there may not be a huge demand at 0%, but it would be worse if interest rates were higher.  Less demand for loans/credit translates to less economic growth (which could include economic contraction).  So 0% rates have kept credit flowing, which is propping up the market.
You are correct to say that overall demand for loans is generally guided by interest rates, however demand for loans by credit worthy borrowers is guided by many more factors, such as economic growth and the regulatory environment, both of which have been horrible over the past several years. If president Obama's economic policies had been pro growth then even without QE demand for loans by credit worthy borrowers would be much higher.
I agree that Obama has been a bad president in many respects, and I wouldn't say he's helped the economy much, either.  But what kind of pro-growth policies could he have implemented?  He could have spent more of the stimulus money on things that would have directly contributed to the economy, like infrastructure improvements/repairs.  But what else could he have done?
legendary
Activity: 966
Merit: 1004
CryptoTalk.Org - Get Paid for every Post!
August 14, 2014, 08:55:41 PM

The financial crisis took out a few players (banks / investment banks) in the credit market. The absence of these financial intermediaries would have resulted in lower credit being available to main street. Rates would also have risen, with banks not willing to take on additional risk. QE was supposed to ensure that this did not happen, by making ample liquidity available in the system.

So, in the worst case, QE just didn't work out since there was not much demand for credit from the "main street", but it didn't make it worse either, right?

It hasn't made it worse, but its efficacy was low.

QE and low interest rates postponed the crisis but it is going to be worse and will probably end up in hyper inflation and wars
I really don't see QE and wars being linked, especially since most of the modernized world has engaged in some kind of QE (neither wars fought with military or economic/trade wars). Also the fact that banks are keeping the majority of the money they get from QE as excess reserves at the federal reserve is preventing inflation from getting out of hand.
legendary
Activity: 1918
Merit: 1018
August 14, 2014, 09:28:37 AM

The financial crisis took out a few players (banks / investment banks) in the credit market. The absence of these financial intermediaries would have resulted in lower credit being available to main street. Rates would also have risen, with banks not willing to take on additional risk. QE was supposed to ensure that this did not happen, by making ample liquidity available in the system.

So, in the worst case, QE just didn't work out since there was not much demand for credit from the "main street", but it didn't make it worse either, right?

It hasn't made it worse, but its efficacy was low.

QE and low interest rates postponed the crisis but it is going to be worse and will probably end up in hyper inflation and wars
hero member
Activity: 742
Merit: 526
August 14, 2014, 05:08:33 AM
I'm not very familiar with the effects and aims of QEs, but if I'm not mistaken, one target of the "money printing" campaign was to liquidate toxic assets (read write off). If these funds made their way into the economy that would simply increase inflation rates (now we are heading well into exogenous vs endogenous money debate).

The financial crisis took out a few players (banks / investment banks) in the credit market. The absence of these financial intermediaries would have resulted in lower credit being available to main street. Rates would also have risen, with banks not willing to take on additional risk. QE was supposed to ensure that this did not happen, by making ample liquidity available in the system.

So, in the worst case, QE just didn't work out since there was not much demand for credit from the "main street", but it didn't make it worse either, right?

QE and 0% interest rate are propping up the market but they just postponed a much needed recession to eliminate bad debt, bad players and bad practices

How could zero interest rates be propping up the market if no one is/was willing to take loans? Is this what is called a "liquidity trap"?
No matter what the interest rate is, there's always someone who wants a loan.  So it's a question of how much demand there is for loans at the current rate.  And of course demand falls off as rates increase.  So there may not be a huge demand at 0%, but it would be worse if interest rates were higher.  Less demand for loans/credit translates to less economic growth (which could include economic contraction).  So 0% rates have kept credit flowing, which is propping up the market.
You are correct to say that overall demand for loans is generally guided by interest rates, however demand for loans by credit worthy borrowers is guided by many more factors, such as economic growth and the regulatory environment, both of which have been horrible over the past several years. If president Obama's economic policies had been pro growth then even without QE demand for loans by credit worthy borrowers would be much higher.

But why would he and his administration choose to oppose the economic policies that would be pro growth? I just can't find reasonable arguments for this unless we don't know (or understand) enough to make a well-grounded conclusion.
full member
Activity: 209
Merit: 100
August 13, 2014, 10:17:01 PM
I'm not very familiar with the effects and aims of QEs, but if I'm not mistaken, one target of the "money printing" campaign was to liquidate toxic assets (read write off). If these funds made their way into the economy that would simply increase inflation rates (now we are heading well into exogenous vs endogenous money debate).

The financial crisis took out a few players (banks / investment banks) in the credit market. The absence of these financial intermediaries would have resulted in lower credit being available to main street. Rates would also have risen, with banks not willing to take on additional risk. QE was supposed to ensure that this did not happen, by making ample liquidity available in the system.

So, in the worst case, QE just didn't work out since there was not much demand for credit from the "main street", but it didn't make it worse either, right?

QE and 0% interest rate are propping up the market but they just postponed a much needed recession to eliminate bad debt, bad players and bad practices

How could zero interest rates be propping up the market if no one is/was willing to take loans? Is this what is called a "liquidity trap"?
No matter what the interest rate is, there's always someone who wants a loan.  So it's a question of how much demand there is for loans at the current rate.  And of course demand falls off as rates increase.  So there may not be a huge demand at 0%, but it would be worse if interest rates were higher.  Less demand for loans/credit translates to less economic growth (which could include economic contraction).  So 0% rates have kept credit flowing, which is propping up the market.
You are correct to say that overall demand for loans is generally guided by interest rates, however demand for loans by credit worthy borrowers is guided by many more factors, such as economic growth and the regulatory environment, both of which have been horrible over the past several years. If president Obama's economic policies had been pro growth then even without QE demand for loans by credit worthy borrowers would be much higher.
hero member
Activity: 742
Merit: 526
August 13, 2014, 03:00:45 PM
I'm not very familiar with the effects and aims of QEs, but if I'm not mistaken, one target of the "money printing" campaign was to liquidate toxic assets (read write off). If these funds made their way into the economy that would simply increase inflation rates (now we are heading well into exogenous vs endogenous money debate).

The financial crisis took out a few players (banks / investment banks) in the credit market. The absence of these financial intermediaries would have resulted in lower credit being available to main street. Rates would also have risen, with banks not willing to take on additional risk. QE was supposed to ensure that this did not happen, by making ample liquidity available in the system.

So, in the worst case, QE just didn't work out since there was not much demand for credit from the "main street", but it didn't make it worse either, right?

QE and 0% interest rate are propping up the market but they just postponed a much needed recession to eliminate bad debt, bad players and bad practices

How could zero interest rates be propping up the market if no one is/was willing to take loans? Is this what is called a "liquidity trap"?
No matter what the interest rate is, there's always someone who wants a loan.  So it's a question of how much demand there is for loans at the current rate.  And of course demand falls off as rates increase.  So there may not be a huge demand at 0%, but it would be worse if interest rates were higher.  Less demand for loans/credit translates to less economic growth (which could include economic contraction).  So 0% rates have kept credit flowing, which is propping up the market.

This means that QE has worked to a degree after all (and didn't whip on inflation), correct? Cheesy

It hasn't made it worse, but its efficacy was low.

That's what I'm saying.
legendary
Activity: 1582
Merit: 1064
August 13, 2014, 01:04:19 PM

The financial crisis took out a few players (banks / investment banks) in the credit market. The absence of these financial intermediaries would have resulted in lower credit being available to main street. Rates would also have risen, with banks not willing to take on additional risk. QE was supposed to ensure that this did not happen, by making ample liquidity available in the system.

So, in the worst case, QE just didn't work out since there was not much demand for credit from the "main street", but it didn't make it worse either, right?

It hasn't made it worse, but its efficacy was low.
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