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Topic: Global Financial Crisis scenarios - page 5. (Read 15898 times)

hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
August 06, 2014, 02:27:29 AM
do you think we`ll see something again like 2008? Its been 6 years already ever since that moment.
The 2008 collapse was something that generally happens less then once per lifetime.

The conditions to get the 2008 collapse are all there only bigger : reckless doing, 0% interest rate, government manipulation of markets, heavy regulation; except this time they will probably inflate the USD to make everyone whole so the stock market may not nominally go down
What caused the 2008 collapse was loose lending for houses (this also spilled over into other types of lending as well), we are not seeing that today. A secondary factor that contributed to the 2008 collapse was excess leverage at banks so investors could not determine if they had sufficient capital to survive.

Lose lending was encouraged by the FED and the government with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

We have exactly the same situation now with very low interests rates that create the bubble, except now it is bigger, the same that were in denied are still in denied because they are participating to the foolish bubble
It does seem like housing may be getting into bubble territory again.  But what's a lot scarier, IMO, is the bubble in US treasuries.  If/when that sucker pops, interest rates will spike, and the US will be screwed.  We've been borrowing many trillions on the assumption that we get to keep financing all that at a couple percent.  If interest rates go up 2-3x or more, the extra drain on tax money or loss of government spending will probably throw us into a nasty recession.

This won't happen since Congress will pass an act and Fed will print as much money as needed to cover all outstanding debts. And with the newly printed dollars, the happy US treasury bearers would buy even more US treasuries.

As I stated in one of my posts above, it's not that simple--you can't just print money like that.  There are a lot of extra consequences, and a lot of assumptions that everything else in the scenario we're discussing is as it is now.  If interest rates triple, that already means that a lot of people are losing faith in US treasuries.  If the US just starts blatantly creating trillions of dollars, all faith will be lost and treasuries will crash very hard.  It doesn't matter if people have tons of extra money to invest.  They'll be plowing it into investments that go up with inflation, unlike treasuries and bonds, which go down.

Of course, the other part of this is what's happening to the economy while treasuries are crashing.  If it's sliding into a recession/depression (which is quite plausible), then deflation could take hold, which might make bonds look more attractive.  But treasuries would likely still suck.
legendary
Activity: 1358
Merit: 1000
August 05, 2014, 09:15:10 PM
Lots of new coins coming up. I won't dismiss all of them yet.

True. The myspace-facebook analogy could play out in crypto as well.
full member
Activity: 182
Merit: 100
August 05, 2014, 03:45:18 PM
This is a beautiful pic that sums it all. Im going to translate this and show my parents and non geeky friends. It's easy to see how BTC is a legitimate place to put your wealth into. I hope when the world realizes this I have enough BTC to call it a day.

This chart is true for any crypto currency, but I don't see all altcoins succeeding. Cheesy

There can be only one. Wink

Lots of new coins coming up. I won't dismiss all of them yet.
legendary
Activity: 1358
Merit: 1000
August 05, 2014, 12:03:18 PM
This is a beautiful pic that sums it all. Im going to translate this and show my parents and non geeky friends. It's easy to see how BTC is a legitimate place to put your wealth into. I hope when the world realizes this I have enough BTC to call it a day.

This chart is true for any crypto currency, but I don't see all altcoins succeeding. Cheesy

There can be only one. Wink

Yes, widespread adoption is the key.
And bitcoin has a head start.
hero member
Activity: 742
Merit: 526
August 05, 2014, 03:22:03 AM
This is a beautiful pic that sums it all. Im going to translate this and show my parents and non geeky friends. It's easy to see how BTC is a legitimate place to put your wealth into. I hope when the world realizes this I have enough BTC to call it a day.

This chart is true for any crypto currency, but I don't see all altcoins succeeding. Cheesy

There can be only one. Wink
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 506
August 04, 2014, 11:24:42 PM
I'm not sure if gold is that portable.  Are you going to chip off flakes to pay for lunch at a restaurant?  Never mind a $1 million gold bar weighs like 25 pounds.  Forget what you saw in some Indiana Jones Movie, nobody can throw 10 bars into their backpack unless they're the Hulk.



hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 500
August 04, 2014, 10:20:52 PM

This chart is true for any crypto currency, but I don't see all altcoins succeeding. Cheesy

Haha good point.   

legendary
Activity: 1358
Merit: 1000
August 04, 2014, 09:49:26 PM
Hi,

I have a question, but please direct me to a post if already asked:

In case of another GFC, would BTC bitcoin price:

a) stays on the same level  Cool
b) skyrockets  Grin
c) tumble down  Cry

Take your pick:



This is a beautiful pic that sums it all. Im going to translate this and show my parents and non geeky friends. It's easy to see how BTC is a legitimate place to put your wealth into. I hope when the world realizes this I have enough BTC to call it a day.

This chart is true for any crypto currency, but I don't see all altcoins succeeding. Cheesy
sr. member
Activity: 322
Merit: 250
August 04, 2014, 07:02:28 PM
Hi,

I have a question, but please direct me to a post if already asked:

In case of another GFC, would BTC bitcoin price:

a) stays on the same level  Cool
b) skyrockets  Grin
c) tumble down  Cry

Take your pick:



This is a beautiful pic that sums it all. Im going to translate this and show my parents and non geeky friends. It's easy to see how BTC is a legitimate place to put your wealth into. I hope when the world realizes this I have enough BTC to call it a day.
hero member
Activity: 742
Merit: 526
August 04, 2014, 02:42:02 PM
Bitcoin can't be counterfeited. Can not. Up to you to back up your accusation if you insist on it. And fiat includes the physical kind.

I'm curious how you could misinterpret my message so badly. I was referring to fiat in respect to counterfeiting (actually, all my post was about fiat). How are you really going to counterfeit a Central Bank (or MasterCard for that matter)? Regarding paper banknotes (which still can be counterfeited), I can only advise you to weigh your chances to sell (or buy, just in case), say, a home for cash.

It did seem as though you were indirectly suggesting that fiat is less prone to counterfeiting than cryptocurrencies.

I'm not sure what you're getting at when you talk about counterfeiting a central bank or MasterCard.  This seems irrelevant to bring up.  If you can counterfeit a bank note then what does it matter if you counterfeit the entity that produced it?  I'm really not sure what counterfeiting such an entity would mean, let alone what point you're trying to make.  Clarify, please?

I was not talking about cash, I thought it was evident right from the start. The table thus shows a biased view on fiat as being more prone to counterfeiting than cryptocurrencies. How are you going to counterfeit a digital currency (which is presently the major form that fiat exists in) unless you somehow can counterfeit transactions in this currency? For this you would have to "counterfeit" a central bank (or at least a payment system like MasterCard).

And, in fact, fiat may actually turn out to be less prone to counterfeiting than some cryptocurrencies.
legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1020
August 04, 2014, 12:00:28 PM
Bitcoin can't be counterfeited. Can not. Up to you to back up your accusation if you insist on it. And fiat includes the physical kind.

I'm curious how you could misinterpret my message so badly. I was referring to fiat in respect to counterfeiting (actually, all my post was about fiat). How are you really going to counterfeit a Central Bank (or MasterCard for that matter)? Regarding paper banknotes (which still can be counterfeited), I can only advise you to weigh your chances to sell (or buy, just in case), say, a home for cash.

It did seem as though you were indirectly suggesting that fiat is less prone to counterfeiting than cryptocurrencies.

I'm not sure what you're getting at when you talk about counterfeiting a central bank or MasterCard.  This seems irrelevant to bring up.  If you can counterfeit a bank note then what does it matter if you counterfeit the entity that produced it?  I'm really not sure what counterfeiting such an entity would mean, let alone what point you're trying to make.  Clarify, please?
hero member
Activity: 742
Merit: 526
August 04, 2014, 04:00:00 AM
This won't happen since Congress will pass an act and Fed will print as much money as needed to cover all outstanding debts. And with the newly printed dollars, the happy US treasury bearers would buy even more US treasuries.
The FED is an independent government agency that should not be subject to this level of oversight. The Fed's purpose it is keep inflation in check and try to get the economy to reach maximum employment. Nothing else.

The Federal Reserve System was established by an act of Congress, thus it is subject to congressional oversight (and it is Congress that raises the debt ceiling, which is just another way of making the Fed print more money through government (Treasury) borrowing). As I know, they could even dismantle it entirely in the case such a need should arise.
legendary
Activity: 1918
Merit: 1018
August 03, 2014, 06:48:13 PM
This won't happen since Congress will pass an act and Fed will print as much money as needed to cover all outstanding debts. And with the newly printed dollars, the happy US treasury bearers would buy even more US treasuries.
The FED is an independent government agency that should not be subject to this level of oversight. The Fed's purpose it is keep inflation in check and try to get the economy to reach maximum employment. Nothing else.

Now they created a mandate of minimum inflation! Which is crazy

They are fixing the lending markets and most markets actually; the balance sheet of the FED went from 500B to 5trillions in a few years, we are in a recession and heading to an economic collapse in the US and even in most the western world : bonds and stocks markets are way overprices
hero member
Activity: 988
Merit: 1000
August 03, 2014, 06:19:14 PM
This won't happen since Congress will pass an act and Fed will print as much money as needed to cover all outstanding debts. And with the newly printed dollars, the happy US treasury bearers would buy even more US treasuries.
The FED is an independent government agency that should not be subject to this level of oversight. The Fed's purpose it is keep inflation in check and try to get the economy to reach maximum employment. Nothing else.
hero member
Activity: 742
Merit: 526
August 03, 2014, 02:46:06 PM
This won't happen since Congress will pass an act and Fed will print as much money as needed to cover all outstanding debts. And with the newly printed dollars, the happy US treasury bearers would buy even more US treasuries.
So they want to collapse?

"Oh, interest spiked?

Print another 185 billion dollars, halve our currency value, have people start dumping our dollars, and move on to something else, leaving us with a really poor exchange rate and decimated purchasing power."

Yeah, the US is doomed.

And that would be wisely called QE4 (5, 6, etc. ad nauseam). As long as they can keep inflation constrained (as they do right now), it doesn't matter how many more dollars they would print or how high the US government debt will spike.

So, to paraphrase your words, the world is doomed to bear the burden of the US debt.
And this.

The world is doomed, the dollar is set to collapse, so now we wait...

Why so? The world economic system would probably collapse if we had an asteroid hit the Earth or the Yellowstone super-volcano blow up one day. Dollar is just a money, a means to exchange things. What really matters are these things that are being exchanged for it, i.e. real wealth created by people. It just can't disappear in a flash.
legendary
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1007
August 03, 2014, 02:39:01 PM

So they want to collapse?

"Oh, interest spiked?

Print another 185 billion dollars, halve our currency value, have people start dumping our dollars, and move on to something else, leaving us with a really poor exchange rate and decimated purchasing power."

Yeah, the US is doomed.

So is half the world, with their huge dollar holdings.
Yeah, unless some countries decided to just start buying up lots of gold out of no where...
This won't happen since Congress will pass an act and Fed will print as much money as needed to cover all outstanding debts. And with the newly printed dollars, the happy US treasury bearers would buy even more US treasuries.
So they want to collapse?

"Oh, interest spiked?

Print another 185 billion dollars, halve our currency value, have people start dumping our dollars, and move on to something else, leaving us with a really poor exchange rate and decimated purchasing power."

Yeah, the US is doomed.

And that would be wisely called QE4 (5, 6, etc. ad nauseam). As long as they can keep inflation constrained (as they do right now), it doesn't matter how many more dollars they would print or how high the US government debt will spike.

So, to paraphrase your words, the world is doomed to bear the burden of the US debt.
And this.

The world is doomed, the dollar is set to collapse, so now we wait...
legendary
Activity: 1358
Merit: 1000
August 03, 2014, 11:09:28 AM

So they want to collapse?

"Oh, interest spiked?

Print another 185 billion dollars, halve our currency value, have people start dumping our dollars, and move on to something else, leaving us with a really poor exchange rate and decimated purchasing power."

Yeah, the US is doomed.

So is half the world, with their huge dollar holdings.
hero member
Activity: 742
Merit: 526
August 03, 2014, 11:07:20 AM
This won't happen since Congress will pass an act and Fed will print as much money as needed to cover all outstanding debts. And with the newly printed dollars, the happy US treasury bearers would buy even more US treasuries.
So they want to collapse?

"Oh, interest spiked?

Print another 185 billion dollars, halve our currency value, have people start dumping our dollars, and move on to something else, leaving us with a really poor exchange rate and decimated purchasing power."

Yeah, the US is doomed.

And that would be wisely called QE4 (5, 6, etc. ad nauseam). As long as they can keep inflation constrained (as they do right now), it doesn't matter how many more dollars they would print or how high the US government debt will spike.

So, to paraphrase your words, the world is doomed to bear the burden of the US debt.
legendary
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1007
August 03, 2014, 09:57:33 AM
do you think we`ll see something again like 2008? Its been 6 years already ever since that moment.
The 2008 collapse was something that generally happens less then once per lifetime.

The conditions to get the 2008 collapse are all there only bigger : reckless doing, 0% interest rate, government manipulation of markets, heavy regulation; except this time they will probably inflate the USD to make everyone whole so the stock market may not nominally go down
What caused the 2008 collapse was loose lending for houses (this also spilled over into other types of lending as well), we are not seeing that today. A secondary factor that contributed to the 2008 collapse was excess leverage at banks so investors could not determine if they had sufficient capital to survive.

Lose lending was encouraged by the FED and the government with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

We have exactly the same situation now with very low interests rates that create the bubble, except now it is bigger, the same that were in denied are still in denied because they are participating to the foolish bubble
It does seem like housing may be getting into bubble territory again.  But what's a lot scarier, IMO, is the bubble in US treasuries.  If/when that sucker pops, interest rates will spike, and the US will be screwed.  We've been borrowing many trillions on the assumption that we get to keep financing all that at a couple percent.  If interest rates go up 2-3x or more, the extra drain on tax money or loss of government spending will probably throw us into a nasty recession.

This won't happen since Congress will pass an act and Fed will print as much money as needed to cover all outstanding debts. And with the newly printed dollars, the happy US treasury bearers would buy even more US treasuries.
So they want to collapse?

"Oh, interest spiked?

Print another 185 billion dollars, halve our currency value, have people start dumping our dollars, and move on to something else, leaving us with a really poor exchange rate and decimated purchasing power."

Yeah, the US is doomed.
hero member
Activity: 742
Merit: 526
August 03, 2014, 06:48:33 AM
do you think we`ll see something again like 2008? Its been 6 years already ever since that moment.
The 2008 collapse was something that generally happens less then once per lifetime.

The conditions to get the 2008 collapse are all there only bigger : reckless doing, 0% interest rate, government manipulation of markets, heavy regulation; except this time they will probably inflate the USD to make everyone whole so the stock market may not nominally go down
What caused the 2008 collapse was loose lending for houses (this also spilled over into other types of lending as well), we are not seeing that today. A secondary factor that contributed to the 2008 collapse was excess leverage at banks so investors could not determine if they had sufficient capital to survive.

Lose lending was encouraged by the FED and the government with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

We have exactly the same situation now with very low interests rates that create the bubble, except now it is bigger, the same that were in denied are still in denied because they are participating to the foolish bubble
It does seem like housing may be getting into bubble territory again.  But what's a lot scarier, IMO, is the bubble in US treasuries.  If/when that sucker pops, interest rates will spike, and the US will be screwed.  We've been borrowing many trillions on the assumption that we get to keep financing all that at a couple percent.  If interest rates go up 2-3x or more, the extra drain on tax money or loss of government spending will probably throw us into a nasty recession.

This won't happen since Congress will pass an act and Fed will print as much money as needed to cover all outstanding debts. And with the newly printed dollars, the happy US treasury bearers would buy even more US treasuries.
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