Topic: Global Financial Crisis scenarios - page 6. (Read 15914 times)

Quote from: crazyALT47 on July 24, 2014, 09:06:06 PM

Quote from: boumalo on August 02, 2014, 05:49:03 PM

do you think we`ll see something again like 2008? Its been 6 years already ever since that moment.

The 2008 collapse was something that generally happens less then once per lifetime.

The conditions to get the 2008 collapse are all there only bigger : reckless doing, 0% interest rate, government manipulation of markets, heavy regulation; except this time they will probably inflate the USD to make everyone whole so the stock market may not nominally go down

What caused the 2008 collapse was loose lending for houses (this also spilled over into other types of lending as well), we are not seeing that today. A secondary factor that contributed to the 2008 collapse was excess leverage at banks so investors could not determine if they had sufficient capital to survive.

Lose lending was encouraged by the FED and the government with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

We have exactly the same situation now with very low interests rates that create the bubble, except now it is bigger, the same that were in denied are still in denied because they are participating to the foolish bubble

It does seem like housing may be getting into bubble territory again. But what's a lot scarier, IMO, is the bubble in US treasuries. If/when that sucker pops, interest rates will spike, and the US will be screwed. We've been borrowing many trillions on the assumption that we get to keep financing all that at a couple percent. If interest rates go up 2-3x or more, the extra drain on tax money or loss of government spending will probably throw us into a nasty recession.

blumangroup

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'Slow and steady wins the race'

Quote from: Mobius on August 02, 2014, 04:17:55 PM

Quote from: crazyALT47 on July 24, 2014, 09:06:06 PM

Quote from: Mobius on August 02, 2014, 04:17:55 PM

do you think we`ll see something again like 2008? Its been 6 years already ever since that moment.

The 2008 collapse was something that generally happens less then once per lifetime.

The conditions to get the 2008 collapse are all there only bigger : reckless doing, 0% interest rate, government manipulation of markets, heavy regulation; except this time they will probably inflate the USD to make everyone whole so the stock market may not nominally go down

What caused the 2008 collapse was loose lending for houses (this also spilled over into other types of lending as well), we are not seeing that today. A secondary factor that contributed to the 2008 collapse was excess leverage at banks so investors could not determine if they had sufficient capital to survive.

Lose lending was encouraged by the FED and the government with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

We have exactly the same situation now with very low interests rates that create the bubble, except now it is bigger, the same that were in denied are still in denied because they are participating to the foolish bubble

How as loose lending encouraged by the Fed? Loose lending was caused by regulations forcing banks to make loans to minorities via the CRA.

boumalo

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Quote from: crazyALT47 on July 24, 2014, 09:06:06 PM

do you think we`ll see something again like 2008? Its been 6 years already ever since that moment.

The 2008 collapse was something that generally happens less then once per lifetime.

The conditions to get the 2008 collapse are all there only bigger : reckless doing, 0% interest rate, government manipulation of markets, heavy regulation; except this time they will probably inflate the USD to make everyone whole so the stock market may not nominally go down

What caused the 2008 collapse was loose lending for houses (this also spilled over into other types of lending as well), we are not seeing that today. A secondary factor that contributed to the 2008 collapse was excess leverage at banks so investors could not determine if they had sufficient capital to survive.

Lose lending was encouraged by the FED and the government with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

We have exactly the same situation now with very low interests rates that create the bubble, except now it is bigger, the same that were in denied are still in denied because they are participating to the foolish bubble

Mobius

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Quote from: crazyALT47 on July 24, 2014, 09:06:06 PM

Quote from: Ibian on July 26, 2014, 05:38:08 PM

do you think we`ll see something again like 2008? Its been 6 years already ever since that moment.

The 2008 collapse was something that generally happens less then once per lifetime.

The conditions to get the 2008 collapse are all there only bigger : reckless doing, 0% interest rate, government manipulation of markets, heavy regulation; except this time they will probably inflate the USD to make everyone whole so the stock market may not nominally go down

What caused the 2008 collapse was loose lending for houses (this also spilled over into other types of lending as well), we are not seeing that today. A secondary factor that contributed to the 2008 collapse was excess leverage at banks so investors could not determine if they had sufficient capital to survive.

tee-rex

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Bitcoin can't be counterfeited. Can not. Up to you to back up your accusation if you insist on it. And fiat includes the physical kind.

I'm curious how you could misinterpret my message so badly. I was referring to fiat in respect to counterfeiting (actually, all my post was about fiat). How are you really going to counterfeit a Central Bank (or MasterCard for that matter)? Regarding paper banknotes (which still can be counterfeited), I can only advise you to weigh your chances to sell (or buy, just in case), say, a home for cash.

Ibian

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Quote from: tee-rex on July 26, 2014, 01:50:02 PM

Quote from: lyth0s on July 25, 2014, 11:26:40 PM

Hi,

I have a question, but please direct me to a post if already asked:

In case of another GFC, would BTC bitcoin price:

a) stays on the same level Cool

b) skyrockets Grin

c) tumble down Cry

Take your pick:

This table is biased for pretty obvious reasons. In today's world of electronic monies fiat is as durable as anything else, highly divisible as well, and by far more secure than cryptocurrencies (cf. breaking into a bank account vs personal computer), let alone counterfeiting.

Bitcoin can't be counterfeited. Can not. Up to you to back up your accusation if you insist on it. And fiat includes the physical kind.

CoinsCoinsEverywhere

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Hi,

I have a question, but please direct me to a post if already asked:

In case of another GFC, would BTC bitcoin price:

a) stays on the same level Cool

b) skyrockets Grin

c) tumble down Cry

Take your pick:

Anyone know where this image was originally published?

And if another GFC were to happen, I don't think the general public is ready to put all of their fiat into a cryptocurrency quite yet. There is still a liquidity issue and the tech issue.

I think you're right, a lot of people wouldn't. But if some did such that bitcoin started rising in contrast to a falling stock market, it would look pretty attractive. That might draw more people in. Additionally, if a bitcoin ETF is available so that average stock market investors can buy in very easily, such a crisis might give bitcoin price a good boost, at least for a short time (maybe another bubble?).

tee-rex

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Quote from: lyth0s on July 25, 2014, 11:26:40 PM

Hi,

I have a question, but please direct me to a post if already asked:

In case of another GFC, would BTC bitcoin price:

a) stays on the same level Cool

b) skyrockets Grin

c) tumble down Cry

Take your pick:

This table is biased for pretty obvious reasons. In today's world of electronic monies fiat is as durable as anything else, highly divisible as well, and by far more secure than cryptocurrencies (cf. breaking into a bank account vs personal computer), let alone counterfeiting.

Yakamoto

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Hi,

I have a question, but please direct me to a post if already asked:

In case of another GFC, would BTC bitcoin price:

a) stays on the same level Cool

b) skyrockets Grin

c) tumble down Cry

Take your pick:

Anyone know where this image was originally published?

And if another GFC were to happen, I don't think the general public is ready to put all of their fiat into a cryptocurrency quite yet. There is still a liquidity issue and the tech issue.

I'd say more tech issue than anything.

Liquidity would -probably- be high for a while, but it would taper of as time progresses. So it would be pretty good for a while, or at least long enough for people to try and exchange a lot of fiat to Bitcoin, since a lot of the bots would still be active.

And hey, if they can't get Bitcoin, the price would skyrocket, and/or people would start turning to precious metals.

lyth0s

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World Class Cryptonaire

Quote from: CoinsCoinsEverywhere on July 25, 2014, 05:58:27 PM

Hi,

I have a question, but please direct me to a post if already asked:

In case of another GFC, would BTC bitcoin price:

a) stays on the same level Cool

b) skyrockets Grin

c) tumble down Cry

Take your pick:

Anyone know where this image was originally published?

And if another GFC were to happen, I don't think the general public is ready to put all of their fiat into a cryptocurrency quite yet. There is still a liquidity issue and the tech issue.

michaelwang33

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Quote from: Erdogan on July 25, 2014, 05:07:22 PM

Quote from: CoinsCoinsEverywhere on July 25, 2014, 03:32:12 PM

Quote from: Erdogan on July 25, 2014, 05:07:22 PM

The 2007-2008 financial crisis, you might think, was an unpredictable one-time crash. But someone have plotted a set of early warning signs for unstable, growing systems, tracking the moment when any bubble is about to pop. (And he's seeing it happen again, right now.) Here is a video: http://www.ted.com/talks/didier_sornette_how_we_can_predict_the_next_financial_crisis

Lots of people see it coming with the insane lending going on in the housing sector. So, it is not unpredictable as the mainstream media portray it.

Knowing that it's coming isn't usually the problem. Anyone who knows anything about finance knows another crash is coming. The problem is figuring out when, how far the markets will fall in the crash, and also how much the markets will go up before we start the descent. Timing is everything.

Correct, if you pull out now (from stocks, housing), you may loose some appreciation. What you can say, is that those assets are risky, and they become riskier.

Yes, as valuations increase, assets become riskier. The stock market is starting to get pretty high now by historical standards, so one would think that we'll probably get at least a correction in the not-too-distant future. But as an old saying goes, markets can behave irrationally longer than you can stay solvent. So it's by no means a good idea to short, but it is time to be cautious.

a more accurate statement would be, 'as the expected return on assets increase, the assets become riskier'

With that being said, as assets become more expensive, there is a greater chance of a, at least short term pull back in the price.

CoinsCoinsEverywhere

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Quote from: CoinsCoinsEverywhere on July 25, 2014, 03:32:12 PM

Quote from: CoinsCoinsEverywhere on July 25, 2014, 03:32:12 PM

The 2007-2008 financial crisis, you might think, was an unpredictable one-time crash. But someone have plotted a set of early warning signs for unstable, growing systems, tracking the moment when any bubble is about to pop. (And he's seeing it happen again, right now.) Here is a video: http://www.ted.com/talks/didier_sornette_how_we_can_predict_the_next_financial_crisis

Lots of people see it coming with the insane lending going on in the housing sector. So, it is not unpredictable as the mainstream media portray it.

Knowing that it's coming isn't usually the problem. Anyone who knows anything about finance knows another crash is coming. The problem is figuring out when, how far the markets will fall in the crash, and also how much the markets will go up before we start the descent. Timing is everything.

Correct, if you pull out now (from stocks, housing), you may loose some appreciation. What you can say, is that those assets are risky, and they become riskier.

Yes, as valuations increase, assets become riskier. The stock market is starting to get pretty high now by historical standards, so one would think that we'll probably get at least a correction in the not-too-distant future. But as an old saying goes, markets can behave irrationally longer than you can stay solvent. So it's by no means a good idea to short, but it is time to be cautious.

Erdogan

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The 2007-2008 financial crisis, you might think, was an unpredictable one-time crash. But someone have plotted a set of early warning signs for unstable, growing systems, tracking the moment when any bubble is about to pop. (And he's seeing it happen again, right now.) Here is a video: http://www.ted.com/talks/didier_sornette_how_we_can_predict_the_next_financial_crisis

Lots of people see it coming with the insane lending going on in the housing sector. So, it is not unpredictable as the mainstream media portray it.

Knowing that it's coming isn't usually the problem. Anyone who knows anything about finance knows another crash is coming. The problem is figuring out when, how far the markets will fall in the crash, and also how much the markets will go up before we start the descent. Timing is everything.

Correct, if you pull out now (from stocks, housing), you may loose some appreciation. What you can say, is that those assets are risky, and they become riskier.

CoinsCoinsEverywhere

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Quote from: Ibian on July 23, 2014, 11:18:15 AM

The 2007-2008 financial crisis, you might think, was an unpredictable one-time crash. But someone have plotted a set of early warning signs for unstable, growing systems, tracking the moment when any bubble is about to pop. (And he's seeing it happen again, right now.) Here is a video: http://www.ted.com/talks/didier_sornette_how_we_can_predict_the_next_financial_crisis

Lots of people see it coming with the insane lending going on in the housing sector. So, it is not unpredictable as the mainstream media portray it.

Knowing that it's coming isn't usually the problem. Anyone who knows anything about finance knows another crash is coming. The problem is figuring out when, how far the markets will fall in the crash, and also how much the markets will go up before we start the descent. Timing is everything.

tee-rex

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Quote from: tee-rex on July 23, 2014, 11:15:00 AM

Quote from: Ibian on July 23, 2014, 11:10:33 AM

Quote from: CoinsCoinsEverywhere on July 23, 2014, 11:08:12 AM

Quote from: Ibian on July 23, 2014, 10:50:20 AM

Quote from: CoinsCoinsEverywhere on July 23, 2014, 10:47:15 AM

Quote from: Ibian on July 23, 2014, 10:41:48 AM

Look the price is not supposed to be stable right now. This quest that some people seem to be on is idiotic. They don't understand how the price mechanism works at all.

It's a speculators game all the way to the top. When we have reached full adoption, and spent a number of years riding out the last volatility, then we can begin to talk about stability. Before that it's a waste of time.

I agree, except will bitcoin ever be stable, even after full adoption, etc.? The issue with limited supply is that everyone expects the value to increase over time as the global economy expands. This would invite perpetual speculation, which would result in bubbles and crashes.

And there is nothing wrong with that. Not even a little bit. People trade in fiat volatility right now. Most people just don't know it.

I agree, there's nothing wrong with a little volatility. But even the more extreme daily moves in the Forex markets are a percentage point or two, not 10%+. Although I guess it will depend on how much bitcoins are worth when we reach full adoption. If they're worth a lot more than they are now (like 10x, 100x, or more), that would limit the volatility.

At full adoption, as in everyone in the world use it, a "whale" will be anyone with a tenth of a coin. Math provides the answers we seek.

I think this will never happen. Think in terms of real wealth. Why would anyone want to sell you a plant, a bank, an oil derrick just because there is a limited supply of new coins?

Why would they sell you a pizza now?

Only a few would sell you a pizza right now for bitcoins. And those who do, accept bitcoins since they know how to get rid of them. Even if they stash them away today, they still plan how they would spend the proceedings tomorrow.

CoinsCoinsEverywhere

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Quote from: crazyALT47 on July 24, 2014, 09:06:06 PM

Quote from: crazyALT47 on July 24, 2014, 09:06:06 PM

do you think we`ll see something again like 2008? Its been 6 years already ever since that moment.

The 2008 collapse was something that generally happens less then once per lifetime.

The conditions to get the 2008 collapse are all there only bigger : reckless doing, 0% interest rate, government manipulation of markets, heavy regulation; except this time they will probably inflate the USD to make everyone whole so the stock market may not nominally go down

You can't just inflate the USD like that without major repercussions. You'd likely end up with massive inflation, which would cause interest rates to skyrocket and bond markets to crash, which would cause or deepen a recession, which would cause the stock market to crash anyway. Now, things are more complicated than this, so maybe there's some way they could do it without causing so many problems (or maybe they wouldn't happen quite in this way), but I'm guessing it would be very difficult at best.

boumalo

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Quote from: crazyALT47 on July 24, 2014, 09:06:06 PM

do you think we`ll see something again like 2008? Its been 6 years already ever since that moment.

The 2008 collapse was something that generally happens less then once per lifetime.

The conditions to get the 2008 collapse are all there only bigger : reckless doing, 0% interest rate, government manipulation of markets, heavy regulation; except this time they will probably inflate the USD to make everyone whole so the stock market may not nominally go down

TaunSew

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Treating housing as a commodity / investment was never going to have good results for society, regardless if 2008 did or didn't happen.

twiifm

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