Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 1006. (Read 2032266 times)

I agree that the pressure is good for Bitcoin in the long run.

We don't actually disagree. See what I originally wrote:


The gambling sites, users, and wallet devs are all reacting to the pressure precisely because the status quo is in adequate.

Don't you guys think that Darkwallet will solve anonymity concerns?

I think this is just CYA from Coinbase's perspective.  They want to be able to show that they don't accept funds directly from sites of questionable legality.  And I'd do the same thing if I were in their position.

Furthermore, what they are doing adds helpful pressure to implement better mixing/anonymity by default, as evident by your concerns.  The gambling sites, users, and wallet devs are all reacting to the pressure in positive ways.  If "due diligence" for tracking coins from gambling sites is "1 hop" then the coins can be sent using 2 hops, etc.  It's just a game to pacify the regulators--Coinbase pretends to care and so implements a coin-tracking policy, and we route around it (becoming stronger in the process).

I am no longer worried about a bitcoin "fungibility crisis."

The point is, privacy has to be as automated and perfect as the surveillance in order to be effective.

Right now doing everything right means doing it manually, which means sooner or later you will make a mistake.

As long as the never use any service which is recording data and providing it to the NSA.

This means more than just not having a Coinbase account - it also means never buying anything from a company that uses Coinbase as a payment processor (or Bitpay, or any other payment processor).

It means an absolutely perfect track record with no mistakes, because automated surveillance systems don't get bored and complacent like humans do.

Remember that after FDR banned gold not everybody turned in their gold, but it hardly mattered because they couldn't spend it without being worried about getting ratted out.

what countermeasures were taken?

AFAIK the community has been working with FBI to make sense of the blockchain, so they can have some kind of a chance catching bad actors.

i'm talking about NSA level of resources.

so you admit that one can obtain anonymity as long as they are not Coinbase users, ppl who leave their addresses on the forum here, or who perform traffic analysis type tx errors routinely, etc?

If proper countermeasures were not taken by the community it would be possible, given that "with enough resources" can mean almost anything.

let me ask it another way.

do you think you could de-anonymize most, if not all, addresses on the blockchain today with enough resources at your disposal?  cuz you make it sound like you can.

edit:  i'm not talking about Coinbase users, ppl who leave their addresses on the forum here, or who perform traffic analysis type tx errors routinely.

Did you miss that Coinbase is doing blockchain analysis to identify which of their customers are using gambling sites?

This will become more common over time, as Bitcoin becomes more widely used.

This is so true imo...

Everyone is so concerned about privacy and anonymity these days but even our smartest minds can't catch the bad actors. From mtgox to TradeFortress to SR, the good guys and the bad guys all work tirelessly to no avail. Even with a transparent blockchain, the control we have over privacy is still very much in our own hands.

For one thing, we don't know that any bitcoin were actually stolen from Mt Gox. They might have bene running a ponzi/fractional reserve.

The other thing is that even if the surveillance infrastructure isn't very effective today the one thing we know it's only going to get better over time.

Information being leaked today is a problem, even if no adversaries are going to be able to exploit it until tomorrow, because the blockchain will still be here tomorrow.

All it would require, I think, is a place where you can pay to register your corp via a method that does not involve a bank transfer.

What I would do if I was Microsoft would be to get a corporation registered in a suitable country. That corporation would be a purely-online entity. Its only expense is maybe the cost of a VPS to run its website, and those are easy to pay for with bitcoin now.

This corporation would issues shares of its equity as colored bitcoins, which could be distributed via any method and have the useful property of being transferable outside the control of the issuer.

Then I'd make sure this corporation "invents" some intellectual property which I need, and then negotiate a licensing agreement with it. The foreign corporation would specify license fees to be paid in bitcoin, and the rates would be very generous toward the IP holder.

Since that foreign corporation has effectively zero expenses, all of its profits would be distributed to shareholders (whomever holds the colored bitcoins).

I'd repeat this process several times, finding multiple creative ways to end up owing some foreign supplier bitcoins in exchange for good and services, until my US corporation was barely profitable at all.

you keep saying this about Bitcoin's anonymity properties.  if true, why haven't you identified the mtgox crooks yet and sold off the info?  you'd make alot doing so...

edit:  not to mention identities of the numerous other thefts in Bitcoin-land.

i wish this were really true. 

it seems many/most need banking accts yet are being obstructed by the banks.  i wonder how Blockchain.info does it? 

you're right though; once a Bitcoin safe haven opens up, you should hear that sucking sound.  but at what cost to that jurisdiction's banks?

But first we better get to work on better privacy techniques.

Bitcoin isn't any good to anyone in its current state.

http://www.ibtimes.com/microsoft-admits-keeping-92-billion-offshore-avoid-paying-29-billion-us-taxes-1665938


Wait until Microsoft and its investors discover Bitcoin.

The US investors of Microsoft would love to be investors in the non-U.S subsidiaries, but there's no way for them to bring their dividends home without moving them through the banking system, and there's no way for them to secretly own shares of a foreign corporation because all those foreign corporations need bank accounts and therefore need to comply with US laws in order to keep them.

A Bitcoin-native company requires no bank account. It doesn't even really require a physical nexus at all.

All it takes is one legal jurisdiction, somewhere in the world, that's friendly toward Bitcoin-native corporations and then then giant sucking sound you'll hear will be all the foreign subsidiaries moving there.

we've done it twice before, 1933 and 1971, and we'll most likely do it again.

under threat of gun point, of course.

I still come back to Japan. While I never (and still don't) fully understood Kyle Bass's argument that JGB rates *must* rise (can't BoJ just keep buying *all* the bonds?), it's clear some massive dislocation has to happen. I think it'll be a 5x devaluation of the Yen. That's incredible in currency markets, especially a top-5 economy like Japan. What will the fallout be from that? It's probably quite mathematically-literally chaotic.

Note: Bass seems to have weakened on his JGB-rates-are-the-canary thesis, instead moving more toward the above; ie, the Yen will massively devalue instead/first: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBPZ58dzjfE&feature=youtu.be

molecular, is this the same book you recommended a coupla months ago?

this explains why financial crises only occur when debt defaults start to domino, like we had in 2008 with the subprime crisis spreading throughout the system and the elites doing whatever it took, and still takes, to try and mitigate around the edges.  those edges being, not surprisingly, the bailouts to the financial industry elites primarily and for the most part not to homeowners.  what always sticks in my mind is the move from mark to market to mark to model which still is in effect for the most part.  for the elites it's perfectly fine to mark to market "on the way up" but never on the way down.  when the going gets tough, just change the rules.

we keep coming close to a catalyst for another domino effect with the likes of Greece, Spain, and Argentina but we haven't quite gotten there.  the next crisis will come from sovereign defaults as all the risk and toxic debt has been dumped onto gvts and their CB's.  yes, they will print to save themselves, no doubt, which is why Bitcoin will ultimately succeed.  or as stated above, we'll do a debt jubilee.  wheeeee!!!!

no wonder why we hear the criticism that Bitcoin "goes too far" as an often vague complaint from skeptics.  the mathematical enforcement of debt obligations cannot be allowed to be enforced, let alone explored, for everyone.  most of us just "aren't essential enough".

edit:  this is why the UST market is the key.  when interest rates start going up, massive change will be afoot.