What spawned the silver rally in 2011? And where do you see the silver price by end of 2014?
there's a 9yr cycle in gold. silver usually moves with it and oftentimes leads. the last bottom of that cycle was Oct 2008. i used that cycle, along with fundamentals and the Bitcoin phenomenon, to call my personal top in silver in the last week of Apr 2011 and gold in Aug 2011: Gold: I Smell a Trap. when a chart blows off like that so early in a cycle, it usually means it's going to end up being L translated and end up lower than it started.
you can see the run up in silver into its top in May 2011 soon after its bottom in Oct 2008. b/c silver often leads gold, to me, it was an obvious blow off top despite what all the silver pumpers were stating at the time, which was "going to 200". it's concerning when a chart blows off like that so early in its cycle b/c it's likely to end up L translated and bearish. i picked that top @48 by selling 3 junk bags of silver in May and averaging out @44 soon thereafter. don't get me wrong, there is some luck in doing something like that. it's not a science. it's intuition, experience, fundamentals, technicals, all combined. b/c of the steepness of that blowoff, i can't see it coming back for a long time. remember the last blowoff was in 1980.
edit: b/c silver leads, and i thought it topped in May 2011, then i was hunting for the gold top soon thereafter, which ended up being Sept 2011. gold had been in an 10-11 yr bull at that point.
