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Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 1286. (Read 2032274 times)

legendary
Activity: 2660
Merit: 1023
July 01, 2013, 02:52:42 AM
How can I value gold when I don't even know how much there is in the world held by who

Gold has a proof problem the Bitcoin does not.

There is all the bitcoin that disappears due to neglect... whether or not you consider that to ever have existed in the first place, I suppose would be irrelevant.

-apathetic.  Huh

how does that even hurt in fact it makes the remainder more valuable
hero member
Activity: 509
Merit: 564
"In Us We Trust"
June 30, 2013, 08:54:42 PM
How can I value gold when I don't even know how much there is in the world held by who

Gold has a proof problem the Bitcoin does not.

There is all the bitcoin that disappears due to neglect... whether or not you consider that to ever have existed in the first place, I suppose would be irrelevant.

-apathetic.  Huh
legendary
Activity: 4760
Merit: 1283
June 29, 2013, 03:27:05 PM
...
Gold collapsing. Bitcoin collapsing.

Difference is Gold/Silver are probably near the bottom of their down-leg, though I would not rule out another 25% while  Bitcoin probably has another halving, and possibly two before complete loss of hope.  Both are probably several years away from the point where I would ideally like to withdraw some value.  Hopefully my fiat supply (won't end up funding a bail-in, and) will last that long, and I am already resolved to defer some toy purchases to stretch this out.

These are just my non-professional guesstimates though, and I'm always happy to be wrong.  As always, significant external events could intervene with any natural cycle...and very well may in this case.

I will say that if I happened to know I needed the money I had in Bitcoin over the next year or two, I would be taking at least some of it now to avoid doing so at fire-sale prices.  Actually, I would have been doing so a month or two ago.  As it is, I see a reasonable likelihood of yet another significant leg up hopefully well into the four-figures.  It's just that it might take some number of years.

N12
donator
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
June 29, 2013, 03:01:14 PM
Gold is a barbaric relic, deal with it. Grin

it's "barbarous" relic.

unless you're calling miscreanity a barbarian.  Grin
Seems to be the same meaning. Tongue

Gold collapsing. Bitcoin collapsing.
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
June 29, 2013, 01:35:29 PM
Gold is a barbaric relic, deal with it. Grin

it's "barbarous" relic.

unless you're calling miscreanity a barbarian.  Grin
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
June 29, 2013, 01:34:30 PM
APMEX was advertising a special on PAMP 1oz gold bars, $29.99 over spot.  The special ended a few hours ago so I thought I'd check in to see what the new rate is, it's $29.99 over spot  Cheesy

I guess they have a lot of supply leftover.

ROFL. over supply?

Yup.  Gold bugs constantly harp about the divergence between paper gold and physical gold.  Well, right there you can buy all the physical gold you want for a very reasonable price over spot, but it doesn't really look like people are buying.  Maybe when it gets closer to $1000.

i keep offering to sell the rest of my gold coins to miscreanity for the bargain physical price of $2800/oz but he keeps refusing.  even though he knows it's going to $30,000/oz.
legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1019
June 29, 2013, 11:32:00 AM
Well said. Perhaps Bitcoin holders will see free zones spring up that encourage crypto use and effect better exchange value.

http://www.nhforliberty.com/ron-helwig-discusses-shire-silver-and-bitcoin-at-2013-nh-liberty-forum/

This guy, Ron Helwig, really gets it. I'm glad he's a part of the Free State Project, something I am seriously considering in the future, maybe even as just as a first home.

Quote
"And of course, we do accept bitcoins for the Shire Silver, and we've gotten several orders for that. So people who are a little unsure about bitcoins can easily convert them to sound money by buying some Shire Silver!"

"So how do you answer the question that Bitcoin is sound money?"

"Actually, if you think about it, it probably is, to extent that, getting into the whole semantic argument, 'let's be a pure Austrian', all that stuff. Bitcoin either proves via Mises's regression theorem by having an actual value in its utility as a means of exchange, or it disproves Mises' theorem, in which case, is to me, a moot point. But the fact that it's mathematically limited to the 21 million bitcoins, means its essentially sound by mathematics, as opposed to silver and gold, it's sound by physics.  Physics limits the amount of gold and silver available, mathematics limits the amount of bitcoins available."
legendary
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1005
June 29, 2013, 11:28:34 AM
I do quite see what you are saying. It is the flatness of a universal medium of exchange that is going away. I have to laugh at New Austrians who try to characterize barter as a flatting of exchange—there is nothing flat about it.

Yes, demand is as fickle as fashion. I have no doubt gold will fall out of favour in time; when the uniformity you describe has returned.

Because, if borders are anything, they are money making machines.

Well said. Perhaps Bitcoin holders will see free zones spring up that encourage crypto use and effect better exchange value.
hero member
Activity: 672
Merit: 500
June 28, 2013, 02:24:30 PM
APMEX was advertising a special on PAMP 1oz gold bars, $29.99 over spot.  The special ended a few hours ago so I thought I'd check in to see what the new rate is, it's $29.99 over spot  Cheesy

I guess they have a lot of supply leftover.

ROFL. over supply?

Yup.  Gold bugs constantly harp about the divergence between paper gold and physical gold.  Well, right there you can buy all the physical gold you want for a very reasonable price over spot, but it doesn't really look like people are buying.  Maybe when it gets closer to $1000.

Pawn Star guy says otherwise.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-28/even-pawn-star-knows-governments-can-screw-currency

Someone should tell him about the APMEX deal.

Exactly.  I just checked and it's still going on and it's not like it's that incredible of a deal, you can probably find physical gold at $30 over spot from many dealers.

I watch the show, it's very entertaining but anyone who watches the show knows how big these guys are on PM's.  The father basically hordes silver.  In fact he even hordes pennies.  There was a show where he had these huge 5 gallon buckets full of pennies, so many that it was sagging the suspension in his car (he was hiding them in the trunk).

Guys in this business need to make a profit so maybe he is having a problem finding PMs at a price where he can make a profit but for the average person, you can easily find physical at prices very close to spot, as I have pointed out.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
June 28, 2013, 02:18:20 PM
APMEX was advertising a special on PAMP 1oz gold bars, $29.99 over spot.  The special ended a few hours ago so I thought I'd check in to see what the new rate is, it's $29.99 over spot  Cheesy

I guess they have a lot of supply leftover.

ROFL. over supply?

Yup.  Gold bugs constantly harp about the divergence between paper gold and physical gold.  Well, right there you can buy all the physical gold you want for a very reasonable price over spot, but it doesn't really look like people are buying.  Maybe when it gets closer to $1000.

Pawn Star guy says otherwise.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-28/even-pawn-star-knows-governments-can-screw-currency

Someone should tell him about the APMEX deal.
legendary
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1005
June 28, 2013, 02:17:06 PM
I'm afraid it is the exact opposite and they are looking to GTFO while the getting is good. Who's to say they aren't distributing instead of accumulating? Ah yes, the hopes of deluded bulls. Cheesy

Keep in mind that everything else is going down against the USD, and that will most likely continue taking Bitcoin down with it as people need to free up cash.

Pay attention, chodpaba...

The USD is not the primary concern among the savviest of HNW entities: it is the accelerating decay of our entire monetary system. They seek vehicles that will bridge the gap from the existing system to the next iteration. This is why many luxury assets have been rising.

As usage of the present system grinds down, wealth held within it will deteriorate at a blistering pace while the new system receives that outflow. Whatever forms the foundation of the new system will be fought over like a natural resource until transition volatility has subsided.

There is no universally-accepted asset capable of acting as the basis of a new monetary system other than gold. No paper contract, asset exchange, or altruistic dogma suffices. Nations have the same concerns an individual has: possession is 9/10ths. If an asset is within your dominion, it is yours.

China can physically relocate precious metals. It cannot do so with productive farmland located outside of its borders, or machinery used worldwide. Nations need a stable, immutable asset with no dependence upon foreign support.

While Bitcoin fits the bill, it is not pervasive enough yet. Gold is the transitional asset for at least the next few years, with other monetary metal playing lesser roles. By 2020 this may shift in favor of crypto.

Bitcoin is a new form of preservation, unproven to many but rapidly gaining acceptance and viewed as a place to park a small percentage of wealth.

Edit: fixed quote, added final statement.
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
HODL OR DIE
June 28, 2013, 02:16:37 PM
APMEX was advertising a special on PAMP 1oz gold bars, $29.99 over spot.  The special ended a few hours ago so I thought I'd check in to see what the new rate is, it's $29.99 over spot  Cheesy

I guess they have a lot of supply leftover.

ROFL. over supply?

Yup.  Gold bugs constantly harp about the divergence between paper gold and physical gold.  Well, right there you can buy all the physical gold you want for a very reasonable price over spot, but it doesn't really look like people are buying.  Maybe when it gets closer to $1000.

Pawn Star guy says otherwise.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-28/even-pawn-star-knows-governments-can-screw-currency
hero member
Activity: 672
Merit: 500
June 28, 2013, 02:09:42 PM
APMEX was advertising a special on PAMP 1oz gold bars, $29.99 over spot.  The special ended a few hours ago so I thought I'd check in to see what the new rate is, it's $29.99 over spot  Cheesy

I guess they have a lot of supply leftover.

ROFL. over supply?

Yup.  Gold bugs constantly harp about the divergence between paper gold and physical gold.  Well, right there you can buy all the physical gold you want for a very reasonable price over spot, but it doesn't really look like people are buying.  Maybe when it gets closer to $1000.
legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1019
June 28, 2013, 01:42:34 PM
How can I value gold when I don't even know how much there is in the world held by who
N12
donator
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
June 28, 2013, 01:11:05 PM
Still, I think high net worth entities are continuing to test the waters and may be looking to accumulate on dips. So sub-$100 prices are unlikely to sick around for very long in my view.
I'm afraid it is the exact opposite and they are looking to GTFO while the getting is good. Who's to say they aren't distributing instead of accumulating? Ah yes, the hopes of deluded bulls. Cheesy

Keep in mind that everything else is going down against the USD, and that will most likely continue taking Bitcoin down with it as people need to free up cash.
legendary
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1005
June 28, 2013, 01:08:23 PM
I really want to know what is going on in the dark pools. Are there any clues that someone is accumulating without us knowing? Was there any abnormal activity when the winklevossi bought their 1%? I know it wasn't until some long length of time after their purchase when they announced they owned their stake.

Same here. Perhaps znort or dooglus might be interested in analyzing capital flows, although without associated exchange information on fiat movement, I don't think there's much to be gleaned.

Anecdotal information has been fairly indicative, but the Bitcoin environment has grown to a point where any such information is a quickly shrinking sample. Still, I think high net worth entities are continuing to test the waters and may be looking to accumulate on dips. So sub-$100 prices are unlikely to sick around for very long in my view.
N12
donator
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
June 28, 2013, 01:04:39 PM
Gold is a barbaric relic, deal with it. Grin
legendary
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1005
June 28, 2013, 01:00:53 PM
The reason that will not play out is that what we are actually seeing is gold reverting to an ordinary commodity with no magical powers. The investment demand is eroding, and what will be left is pricing based on regular supply and demand. This means that pricing will revert to mid 1990's levels adjusted for inflation. $400/oz gold and $6/oz silver.

Gold is the prime commodity candidate for monetary use. It is not sought for its investment potential so much as for its stability in terms of wealth storage. The western perspective views it as any other asset, and that's part of the reason why the west is failing.

Pricing of physical monetary metals will continue to rise as the illusion of fiscal accounting machinations recede, being exposed as a fraud of epic proportions.

The elementary basis of supply and demand hold true over MMT abstractions. Marginal increase in annual PM supply availability against the fiat supply growth which is orders of magnitude greater means that, barring an immediately viable alternative, precious metals will rise in value by comparison. Any rush to accumulate amplifies such an effect.

Those principles hold true for Bitcoin as well. The limiting factor is propagation and active use, which makes it a potential alternative, but not a fully viable one as yet. Even if it can work technically, Bitcoin still has a ways to go.
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1491
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
June 28, 2013, 02:57:16 AM
APMEX was advertising a special on PAMP 1oz gold bars, $29.99 over spot.  The special ended a few hours ago so I thought I'd check in to see what the new rate is, it's $29.99 over spot  Cheesy

I guess they have a lot of supply leftover.

ROFL. over supply?
hero member
Activity: 672
Merit: 500
June 28, 2013, 02:22:32 AM
APMEX was advertising a special on PAMP 1oz gold bars, $29.99 over spot.  The special ended a few hours ago so I thought I'd check in to see what the new rate is, it's $29.99 over spot  Cheesy

I guess they have a lot of supply leftover.
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