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Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 1284. (Read 2032274 times)

legendary
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1005
July 12, 2013, 10:16:47 PM
could some of the smart people in here help shed some light about wether the winklevoss etf might be an attack on bitcoin trying to suppress its price?

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2712210 and the posts before that
Sure an ETF can be used to manipulate prices, but before that this ETF would have to push the Bitcoin price WAYYYYYY higher.
Only if they actually have to have an auditable supply of bitcoin in their "vaults".

they don't, but they might have a hard time convincing people to buy into their etf without an audited supply when the alternative of holding your own coins is that much more attractive. the market will sort its prices out

DrGregMulhauser's answer in the linked thread is as eloquent as it gets.

I haven't bothered reading the filling, but I would not discount the inclination of retail investors to buy a fad without understanding it. As  Zangelbert points out, institutional investors could easily kick up the price, attracting attention, then reap the reward of a saturated order book.

For the Twinklevii, fees are collected either way, so the ETF being proposed as an attack vector is ambiguous. Shares of the ETF would take on sort of a life of their own in the sense that they are largely separate from the actual bitcoins they represent.

While the fund can then be wielded as a leveraged tool, there is no way to stop the flow of wealth - it can only be accelerated or delayed. In other words: if Bitcoin usage continues to demonstrate benefits and garner new users, all the suppressing power of the ETF would only serve to allow more entrants and wider adoption at a faster rate.

I think it's more of an effort to diversify revenue-generating ventures. When a business is self-sustaining, starting another is a prudent step; the twins now hold a huge sum of bitcoins and may soon be pulling a commensurately large flow of fiat, and flow of funds is as important as reserve.

The real asset is all that matters in the end, though. Bitcoin will thrive or fail based on its own merits.
legendary
Activity: 1036
Merit: 1000
July 12, 2013, 05:43:49 AM
could some of the smart people in here help shed some light about wether the winklevoss etf might be an attack on bitcoin trying to suppress its price?

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2712210 and the posts before that

Sure an ETF can be used to manipulate prices, but before that this ETF would have to push the Bitcoin price WAYYYYYY higher.

Only if they actually have to have an auditable supply of bitcoin in their "vaults".


Even if they cheated, the official price would still rise. There have to be a number of big investors who won't/can't get any exposure to BTC until this ETF is created. Dropping a few billion into the pot is going to spike the price in an extreme way, regardless of any shenanigans (which, in any case, should be much harder to pull with a Bitcoin ETF, especially one started by Bitcoin enthusiasts).
legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1019
July 12, 2013, 04:59:59 AM
could some of the smart people in here help shed some light about wether the winklevoss etf might be an attack on bitcoin trying to suppress its price?

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2712210 and the posts before that

Sure an ETF can be used to manipulate prices, but before that this ETF would have to push the Bitcoin price WAYYYYYY higher.

Only if they actually have to have an auditable supply of bitcoin in their "vaults".


they don't, but they might have a hard time convincing people to buy into their etf without an audited supply when the alternative of holding your own coins is that much more attractive. the market will sort its prices out
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
July 12, 2013, 04:58:21 AM
could some of the smart people in here help shed some light about wether the winklevoss etf might be an attack on bitcoin trying to suppress its price?

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2712210 and the posts before that

Sure an ETF can be used to manipulate prices, but before that this ETF would have to push the Bitcoin price WAYYYYYY higher.

Only if they actually have to have an auditable supply of bitcoin in their "vaults".
legendary
Activity: 4760
Merit: 1283
July 12, 2013, 02:28:03 AM
could some of the smart people in here help shed some light about wether the winklevoss etf might be an attack on bitcoin trying to suppress its price?

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2712210 and the posts before that

I doubt that they will be able to be credible enough to have customers, much less become the authoritative market maker, unless they open their books and show their reserve.  Unlike almost anything else this is very possible with Bitcoin.  So, my gut sense is that they are less of a threat than other similar structures.  I also don't believe that structures such as ETFs can successfully manipulate prices both heavily and over a long period since market forces are stronger.

OTOH, if I were a trader I would be pissing myself.  It is a fair bet that there will be massive short-term manipulation with insiders and dark pool participants having better information.  So I guess I am saying (guessing) 'yes, they will suppress prices', but they will also explode prices from time to time.  They and their buddies will be mopping the floor with the poor schmucks who are not on the inside.

legendary
Activity: 1036
Merit: 1000
July 12, 2013, 02:21:20 AM
could some of the smart people in here help shed some light about wether the winklevoss etf might be an attack on bitcoin trying to suppress its price?

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2712210 and the posts before that

Sure an ETF can be used to manipulate prices, but before that this ETF would have to push the Bitcoin price WAYYYYYY higher.
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
July 12, 2013, 02:12:46 AM
could some of the smart people in here help shed some light about wether the winklevoss etf might be an attack on bitcoin trying to suppress its price?

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2712210 and the posts before that
legendary
Activity: 1372
Merit: 1000
July 11, 2013, 08:19:10 PM


there is gold in that computer.
legendary
Activity: 1288
Merit: 1000
Enabling the maximal migration
July 11, 2013, 03:08:02 PM



legendary
Activity: 1025
Merit: 1000
July 06, 2013, 12:08:38 AM
the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread, March 13th, 2012, gold=1690, Bitcoin=5.4):
Bitcoin is 69.04 Gold is 1223.6
Bitcoin: 1178%
Gold:    -27.6%
Diff:  1666% advantage Bitcoin
legendary
Activity: 4760
Merit: 1283
July 05, 2013, 05:08:50 PM
I used to harass you regularly by going back 365 days because I knew BTC would look bad for a while by this metric.  It will be interesting to find out if I'll be able to pull that stunt again.
With a top of 266 put in? Very probable. Cheesy

Not totally clear.  By my ball-park estimations, I'll have to wait several quarters to start.  Then the fun may last only as long as it did last time.  That is, for the duration of the meat of the bubble.

As for the top, I'm still hoping for another leg up in a few years, or any time there is a significant financial calamity in mainstream-land which could easily happen before that.  If we are so lucky then gold will again be badly beaten...at least in the minds of those who take a simplistic view of investment/speculation strategies.

N12
donator
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
July 05, 2013, 04:22:20 PM
I used to harass you regularly by going back 365 days because I knew BTC would look bad for a while by this metric.  It will be interesting to find out if I'll be able to pull that stunt again.
With a top of 266 put in? Very probable. Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 4760
Merit: 1283
July 04, 2013, 11:13:09 PM
...
b/c silverbox, a quintessential gold and silver bug, insisted on using the beginning date of this thread (when everything looked like it was going gold's way) so that he could harass me on a daily basis about how wrong i was.

I've not seen much from him for some time, though he and I were both members of the same group buy to obtain an ASIC not long ago.  I think he only bought one, but I don't remember for sure.  The prices were absurd.  I've not even bothered to fire mine up yet.

I used to harass you regularly by going back 365 days because I knew BTC would look bad for a while by this metric.  It will be interesting to find out if I'll be able to pull that stunt again.

legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
July 04, 2013, 07:42:07 PM
I think we at least deserve a hysteric update on the percentage differences between the two assets ... where the hell that disappear to?!

I'll give it a shot using the calculation from the discussion here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1688539 (-100 for some reason I haven't worked out Undecided)

the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread, March 13th, 2012, gold=1690, Bitcoin=5.4):
Bitcoin is 79.11  Gold is 1248.50
Bitcoin: 1365%
Gold:    -26.12%
Diff:  1884% advantage Bitcoin

Correct me if I got it wrong Zerg  Smiley

Now what if we take from the 260 $/btc top?

Now what if we took it from like—yesterday.

That is a bit of curve fitting, isn't it? Particularly since goldbugs like to tout the 5,000 year cultural history of gold.

Which still does not change the significance of one basic fact: Gold has a proof problem that Bitcoin has solved.

I think a comparison from the top would be good to just to give some people some perspective ... of course it is curve fitting.

Point being the eye-popping percentage gains of bitcoin can turn into equally eye-popping losses. Gold has inertia of 5,000 years that btc doesn't and that is evidenced in the percentage swings ... so let's see them, why not?

Just to strike a little balance in what was becoming a hysterical btc rant thread.

b/c silverbox, a quintessential gold and silver bug, insisted on using the beginning date of this thread (when everything looked like it was going gold's way) so that he could harass me on a daily basis about how wrong i was.
legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 2349
Eadem mutata resurgo
July 04, 2013, 06:47:01 PM
.... or you.
legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 2349
Eadem mutata resurgo
July 04, 2013, 06:21:52 PM
I think we at least deserve a hysteric update on the percentage differences between the two assets ... where the hell that disappear to?!

I'll give it a shot using the calculation from the discussion here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1688539 (-100 for some reason I haven't worked out Undecided)

the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread, March 13th, 2012, gold=1690, Bitcoin=5.4):
Bitcoin is 79.11  Gold is 1248.50
Bitcoin: 1365%
Gold:    -26.12%
Diff:  1884% advantage Bitcoin

Correct me if I got it wrong Zerg  Smiley

Now what if we take from the 260 $/btc top?

Now what if we took it from like—yesterday.

That is a bit of curve fitting, isn't it? Particularly since goldbugs like to tout the 5,000 year cultural history of gold.

Which still does not change the significance of one basic fact: Gold has a proof problem that Bitcoin has solved.

I think a comparison from the top would be good to just to give some people some perspective ... of course it is curve fitting.

Point being the eye-popping percentage gains of bitcoin can turn into equally eye-popping losses. Gold has inertia of 5,000 years that btc doesn't and that is evidenced in the percentage swings ... so let's see them, why not?

Just to strike a little balance in what was becoming a hysterical btc rant thread.
legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 2349
Eadem mutata resurgo
July 04, 2013, 06:06:16 PM
I think we at least deserve a hysteric update on the percentage differences between the two assets ... where the hell that disappear to?!

I'll give it a shot using the calculation from the discussion here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1688539 (-100 for some reason I haven't worked out Undecided)

the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread, March 13th, 2012, gold=1690, Bitcoin=5.4):
Bitcoin is 79.11  Gold is 1248.50
Bitcoin: 1365%
Gold:    -26.12%
Diff:  1884% advantage Bitcoin

Correct me if I got it wrong Zerg  Smiley

Now what if we take from the 260 $/btc top?
legendary
Activity: 1025
Merit: 1000
July 04, 2013, 07:31:21 AM
I think we at least deserve a hysteric update on the percentage differences between the two assets ... where the hell that disappear to?!

I'll give it a shot using the calculation from the discussion here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1688539 (-100 for some reason I haven't worked out Undecided)

the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread, March 13th, 2012, gold=1690, Bitcoin=5.4):
Bitcoin is 79.11  Gold is 1248.50
Bitcoin: 1365%
Gold:    -26.12%
Diff:  1884% advantage Bitcoin

Correct me if I got it wrong Zerg  Smiley
legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 2349
Eadem mutata resurgo
July 04, 2013, 03:12:04 AM
I think we at least deserve a hysteric update on the percentage differences between the two assets ... where the hell that disappear to?!
legendary
Activity: 4760
Merit: 1283
July 04, 2013, 12:15:29 AM
For what it's worth, I recall Jim Rogers recently said he expects things to start unraveling after summer, or if not then after fall. He's finally buying gold again. He seems to have been right about just about everything, including gold's correction.

My own guess is that BTC will continue sliding down over the next few weeks/months, perhaps to $50 if things get dire enough (very bad news could push it even lower of course), but that the global economy is sitting on a powder keg. Japan especially, but also Europe and the US. The next crisis could come at any time, and when it does Bitcoin (and gold) could skyrocket. Note that depending on the type of crisis the opposite might happen first, temporarily (remember 2008).

Despite my short-term bearishness, I wouldn't be tempted to sell core positions in either asset; there's too much pent up steam to get cute with trading in and out of the long-term play of the century (Bitcoin) or your SHTF insurance policy (gold).

I've a bit more respect for Zang-Bing after this post.  The only substantive difference I have with this is that I consider BTC to be the speculative play of the century, gold to be the long-term one, and silver to the the SHTF insurance policy.  For diversity and diversion I employ putter around with property of various types.

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