Author

Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 1283. (Read 2032274 times)

donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
July 20, 2013, 02:39:03 AM
i want more silver

I also feel best for my silver holdings now as gold, silver and bitcoin are all weak. Strange, isn't it? Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1005
July 19, 2013, 11:36:58 PM
You seem to think that JPM will be on the wrong side of the trade when silver goes on THE mother all of bull runs?

No, I just think it's possible that the accumulation of physical silver might allow for more chicanery in the precious metals. Maybe by pushing the herd toward paper gold when the physical supply is dried up, while keeping silver suppressed. Doubtful, but a possibility.
legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 2349
Eadem mutata resurgo
July 19, 2013, 09:37:02 PM
I have to say, I am a little surprised by silver's weakness.

Yes, but silver tends to snap more violently than gold when trends reverse.

What concerns me is JPM accumulation of physical silver, which may be used to continue suppression. Physical gold supply at banks continues to decline, so there could be a revaluation of gold before silver.

Either way, I'm confident that the GSR will strongly favour silver for a period.

You seem to think that JPM will be on the wrong side of the trade when silver goes on THE mother all of bull runs?
legendary
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1005
July 19, 2013, 09:21:55 PM
I have to say, I am a little surprised by silver's weakness.

Yes, but silver tends to snap more violently than gold when trends reverse.

What concerns me is JPM accumulation of physical silver, which may be used to continue suppression. Physical gold supply at banks continues to decline, so there could be a revaluation of gold before silver.

Either way, I'm confident that the GSR will strongly favour silver for a period.
legendary
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1005
July 17, 2013, 04:56:42 PM
Who will accept dollars?

An millionaire account holder who got screwed by a clearinghouse. That's who.

But the inconvenient truth is that the "investment demand" IS represented by the paper markets... So if you hold gold you don't really want to see a divergence.

Assuming the clearinghouses are reliable, that's plausible. HNW entities either know, or are realizing that they are not - in large part due to USD degradation.

Millionaires may accept dollars while they still hold value, but increasingly as a means to acquire real assets, leaving the currency structure hollow. China has been doing is for a decade.

The dollar is numeraire so long as it maintains integrity. Investment demand will leave (already is moving away) when that no longer holds true.
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
July 17, 2013, 04:55:29 PM
You could think of it as such: the body of the western world is dead; the mind is simply hallucinating on its way out. And its progeny are too young to rise yet.

love that image.

Could also be applied to Bitcoin.
It sure could but given the thread subject and history Bitcoin is more likely the progeny

As said hallucinating.
legendary
Activity: 1372
Merit: 1000
July 17, 2013, 04:37:34 PM
You could think of it as such: the body of the western world is dead; the mind is simply hallucinating on its way out. And its progeny are too young to rise yet.

love that image.

Could also be applied to Bitcoin.
It sure could but given the thread subject and history Bitcoin is more likely the progeny
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
July 17, 2013, 04:32:17 PM
You could think of it as such: the body of the western world is dead; the mind is simply hallucinating on its way out. And its progeny are too young to rise yet.

love that image.

Could also be applied to Bitcoin.
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
July 17, 2013, 04:16:23 PM
You could think of it as such: the body of the western world is dead; the mind is simply hallucinating on its way out. And its progeny are too young to rise yet.

love that image.
legendary
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1005
July 17, 2013, 02:18:34 PM
I've anticipated one of two scenarios:
-A short squeeze which doesn't leave enough time to acquire at still-low rates.
-The often-discussed paper/physical disconnect, at which point physical becomes unattainable/significantly higher in price.

There are shortages of nearly all real assets, not just precious metals. Separation of financial instruments from underlying elements is happening now.

You could think of it as such: the body of the western world is dead; the mind is simply hallucinating on its way out. And its progeny are too young to rise yet.

Don't hold your breath for a permanent backwardation, it ain't gonna happen. Neither will the paper/physical disconnect, because in the end people will gladly settle for dollars even if gold isn't available.

Gold is devolving into an ordinary commodity. Expect $400/oz eventually.

Permanency doesn't exist, of course.

Who will gladly settle for dollars? An unemployed couple with a young child, or China's government? The former doesn't have a choice, but will not contribute strength to the currency and won't be happy about it. The latter has already rejected the dollar and is growing even stronger for it.

While the USD will not disappear, it certainly will not hold its own against any independent asset. Physical gold is the ultimate independent asset short of Bitcoin. It is far from an ordinary commodity, and it will be long after the current economic crisis subsides before its properties are no longer highly valued.

The paper/physical rift is widening. If ongoing ejection of western banks from commodity exchanges continues, a full separation might not occur. That means paper will have to match physical or become irrelevant - not the other way around.

If the USD were a dead currency with no issuing authority, I would be more inclined to agree that the dollar might be accepted more easily. It is not, and that would open up enormous potential for fraud anyway. Instead, it is self-destructive and the rats (Bernanke, et al.) are fleeting a sinking ship.
hero member
Activity: 625
Merit: 501
x
July 17, 2013, 12:23:34 PM
You know, when you are the most bullish person in the room...in a room full of Bitcoin enthusiasts...it might be time to be worried  Undecided

Thanks for the opinions, all.
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
July 17, 2013, 12:20:39 PM
Anyone have any analysis/insights to add to either of these recent changes in the gold market:
-Backwardation for the 7th day running.
-Dealer reserves continuing to dwindle.
-Bernanke's speech (with Q&A) today.

I've anticipated one of two scenarios:
-A short squeeze which doesn't leave enough time to acquire at still-low rates.
-The often-discussed paper/physical disconnect, at which point physical becomes unattainable/significantly higher in price.

Really, it's a question of timing.  We're just speculating of course, but - when?
Today?
Another month?
Another year?
Never - you're crazy, gold is going nowhere but down?

I'm curious what other opinions there are around this.



Don't hold your breath for a permanent backwardation, it ain't gonna happen. Neither will the paper/physical disconnect, because in the end people will gladly settle for dollars even if gold isn't available.

Gold is devolving into an ordinary commodity. Expect $400/oz eventually.

That would make my buy-in point of 1 oz/BTC look more realistic.
legendary
Activity: 1288
Merit: 1000
Enabling the maximal migration
July 17, 2013, 11:16:57 AM
silver still over that key support at mid 18, not saying it will stay over it forever, but interesting none the less...

only looking at silver I can tell what Ben said today: something like "Don't worry guys, no tapering or tightening on my watch"


Cha-ching.
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
July 17, 2013, 11:15:39 AM
silver still over that key support at mid 18, not saying it will stay over it forever, but interesting none the less...

only looking at silver I can tell what Ben said today: something like "Don't worry guys, no tapering or tightening on my watch"
sr. member
Activity: 260
Merit: 250
July 17, 2013, 10:02:10 AM
Gold price is going down, no question
legendary
Activity: 2242
Merit: 1057
hero member
Activity: 625
Merit: 501
x
July 17, 2013, 09:41:58 AM
Anyone have any analysis/insights to add to either of these recent changes in the gold market:
-Backwardation for the 7th day running.
-Dealer reserves continuing to dwindle.
-Bernanke's speech (with Q&A) today.

I've anticipated one of two scenarios:
-A short squeeze which doesn't leave enough time to acquire at still-low rates.
-The often-discussed paper/physical disconnect, at which point physical becomes unattainable/significantly higher in price.

Really, it's a question of timing.  We're just speculating of course, but - when?
Today?
Another month?
Another year?
Never - you're crazy, gold is going nowhere but down?

I'm curious what other opinions there are around this.

legendary
Activity: 1153
Merit: 1000
July 12, 2013, 11:33:11 PM
What I don't get is, instead of waiting many months (years?) to to get an ETF approved, why not just start a Bitcoin-heavy mutual fund or something that doesn't require such approval? Or why not have an existing hedge fund just add some bitcoin exposure? It surely comes done to regs that are out of my 圏, but maybe someone knows.

What I am curious about is if this ETF is 100% backed by bitcoins in an actual provable wallet of theirs. The gold analogy here would be the Sprott Physical Gold fund PHYS that is 100% backed by gold.

Or if this ETF will be run more like GLD, with few actual bitcoins and many "paper-backed" promises.

If they do run it in a way that relies on future paper-based promises, then I will be very curious on the overall effect and outcome. There are a fixed number of bitcoins and banks can not multiply the availability of bitcoins the way they do with fiat and gold through fractional reserve lending. They can try, but there is no FED to bail them out.
legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1019
July 12, 2013, 10:55:51 PM
What I don't get is, instead of waiting many months (years?) to to get an ETF approved, why not just start a Bitcoin-heavy mutual fund or something that doesn't require such approval? Or why not have an existing hedge fund just add some bitcoin exposure? It surely comes done to regs that are out of my 圏, but maybe someone knows.

an ETF is a type of mutual fund apparently, but this is not an answer to your question.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_fund#Types
legendary
Activity: 1036
Merit: 1000
July 12, 2013, 10:43:14 PM
What I don't get is, instead of waiting many months (years?) to to get an ETF approved, why not just start a Bitcoin-heavy mutual fund or something that doesn't require such approval? Or why not have an existing hedge fund just add some bitcoin exposure? It surely comes done to regs that are out of my 圏, but maybe someone knows.
Jump to: