For what it's worth, I recall Jim Rogers recently said he expects things to start unraveling after summer, or if not then after fall. He's finally buying gold again. He seems to have been right about just about everything, including gold's correction.
My own guess is that BTC will continue sliding down over the next few weeks/months, perhaps to $50 if things get dire enough (very bad news could push it even lower of course), but that the global economy is sitting on a powder keg. Japan especially, but also Europe and the US. The next crisis could come at any time, and when it does Bitcoin (and gold) could skyrocket. Note that depending on the type of crisis the opposite might happen first, temporarily (remember 2008).
Despite my short-term bearishness, I wouldn't be tempted to sell core positions in either asset; there's too much pent up steam to get cute with trading in and out of the long-term play of the century (Bitcoin) or your SHTF insurance policy (gold).
Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 1285. (Read 2032274 times)
Looking for a floor sub-$50, possibly back-filling to the breach of ~$31. Sellers may find it hard to get back in depending on position size; probably better to accumulate at lows.
ASIC profitability will start to narrow around that price level as well, based on combining rough initial outlay with ongoing costs. Difficulty doubling from the current ~21mm would put an ASIC return at about 12 months with $30 rates. Any miners that hadn't broken even at that point would be operating at an overall net loss for a time, and would be more likely to hold than sell - very similar to 2011, but different enough that such lows might not be reached.
As difficulty approaches 100mm, the exchange price should double based on the same assumptions. With the rate things are changing in the Bitcoin economy, that could happen by year end if no other major financial events occur first. A bail-in scenario might send Bitcoin to high triple, or even quadruple digits.
I'm still watching gold (as much as can be gleaned about physical through paper proxies) for hints on what may happen with Bitcoin; strongly suspecting we may be (un)pleasantly surprised by geopolitical circumstances. Whichever takes off first could very well be an early indicator for the other.
ASIC profitability will start to narrow around that price level as well, based on combining rough initial outlay with ongoing costs. Difficulty doubling from the current ~21mm would put an ASIC return at about 12 months with $30 rates. Any miners that hadn't broken even at that point would be operating at an overall net loss for a time, and would be more likely to hold than sell - very similar to 2011, but different enough that such lows might not be reached.
As difficulty approaches 100mm, the exchange price should double based on the same assumptions. With the rate things are changing in the Bitcoin economy, that could happen by year end if no other major financial events occur first. A bail-in scenario might send Bitcoin to high triple, or even quadruple digits.
I'm still watching gold (as much as can be gleaned about physical through paper proxies) for hints on what may happen with Bitcoin; strongly suspecting we may be (un)pleasantly surprised by geopolitical circumstances. Whichever takes off first could very well be an early indicator for the other.
Now that bitcoin's collapsing, where is Cypherdoc to bump up his own posts?
Seems like the title should be changed:
Gold UP, Bitcoin collapsing...
Gold UP, Bitcoin collapsing...
Gold collapsing, Bitcoin collapsing, US Dollar UP.
Stocks downNo they aren't S&P is up
Zoom out. The top was in May. Technically, gold is up today too, but I wouldn't get too excited about daily wiggles.
Zoom out some more, the top is to lure in sellers. USDx becoming positively correlated with S&P is a good sign for american economy when that happens, real growth ensues. The daily wiggles you talk about may be the wiggles that make you "assume" that there is a top in place. It will break any week I fully expect a stronger bull than ever to come around soon and last until end of year as long as US positive numbers keep coming out.
Gold collapsing, Bitcoin collapsing, US Dollar UP.
Stocks downNo they aren't S&P is up
I think ~blitz is making a point that anyone can post any bullshit they want on this forum and probably 75% of the readers will just accept it since it is easier than actually looking for themselves. Of course it's also completely pointless to do so here.
Continuing the India thing, I not with amusement that when Snowden's information indicated that the Indian embassy had been bugged, one of their ministers issued a statement that it was OK, we (the US) were only gathering 'metadata', and that we (the US) had stopped a lot of terrorism. The Indian's certainly know their place in the modern world. And their place is certainly not to be accumulating gold and causing problems for their Western overlords.
I still think gold will come back. it always does.
Gold collapsing, Bitcoin collapsing, US Dollar UP.
Stocks downNo they aren't S&P is up
Zoom out. The top was in May. Technically, gold is up today too, but I wouldn't get too excited about daily wiggles.
Gold collapsing, Bitcoin collapsing, US Dollar UP.
Stocks downNo they aren't S&P is up
Gold collapsing, Bitcoin collapsing, US Dollar UP.
Stocks down 
Gold collapsing, Bitcoin collapsing, US Dollar UP.
...
Perhaps by 'strangling' you mean the the govt's are accumulating all available gold for their strategic reserves?
Perhaps by 'strangling' you mean the the govt's are accumulating all available gold for their strategic reserves?
Nope. India's gold reserves have remained essentially flat.
They bought a bunch from the IMF a while ago as I recall. I don't remember exactly when, and of course I have no idea if they managed to take delivery. I would not be one bit surprised if they got the shaft unless they were willing to be content moving some paper around describing ownership of phyzzz in London. In any event it's not like anyone is under an obligation to divulge exactly what they are doing. IIRC, China's holding like doubled over one night. I don't treat any statement from any government as gospel for this sort of thing personally.
Seems that in ~chodpaba's world, though, what happened with gold several years ago is meaningless now that in a giant and sudden shift everyone is rejecting gold as a representation of value...for the first time in about 5000 years. I'll buy into that in a heartbeat as soon as I hear credible stories of cost effective nuclear transmutation.
When was the last time we did something that we had not done in the last 5000 tears?
We do new things all the time. A better question was when was the last time a bedrock and universal behavior such as storing wealth in PMs stood for such a length of time just vanished? It takes some rhetoric to argue that gold is a forgotten relic when there is so much effort on the parts of central banks keep it in their vaults (or pretend to anyway.)
I actually mostly respond here to say that I had not exposed myself to Sprott's latest KWN interview when I penned about India several posts back, and I believe I can honestly say that my musings about the posture of the Indian government were almost exclusively my own thesis. Then I listen to Eric Sprott and he says almost the exact same thing. Had he not said it first, I would have been suspicious that the guy reads this forum.
It is silver they are accumulating. Probably because the import tariff on gold has gone up so much. It might even move the s/g ratio.
Silver is the way to go for sure, just that JPM single handely can corner the market it is dangerous. I do believe silver will outperform gold for years to come.
...
I actually mostly respond here to say that I had not exposed myself to Sprott's latest KWN interview when I penned about India several posts back, and I believe I can honestly say that my musings about the posture of the Indian government were almost exclusively my own thesis. Then I listen to Eric Sprott and he says almost the exact same thing. Had he not said it first, I would have been suspicious that the guy reads this forum.
I actually mostly respond here to say that I had not exposed myself to Sprott's latest KWN interview when I penned about India several posts back, and I believe I can honestly say that my musings about the posture of the Indian government were almost exclusively my own thesis. Then I listen to Eric Sprott and he says almost the exact same thing. Had he not said it first, I would have been suspicious that the guy reads this forum.
It is silver they are accumulating. Probably because the import tariff on gold has gone up so much. It might even move the s/g ratio.
So says Sprott. The salient point is that the Indian govt is fucking their own people under the direction of the Western financial interests. Or at least so goes the conspiracy theory.
The massive silver accumulation is evidence of this hypothesis insofar as it speaks of a substitution effect. Especially notable also as to the best of my knowledge, Indians have never had much interest in silver.
yes. china is promoting the sale of gold to the people. something i find very odd but maybe it was cuz they just needed the cash.
In order to accumulate as much gold as possible in as short a time as possible, enlisting the citizenry this way is no different than 20th century war propaganda.
Death by 1,000 cuts.
...
Perhaps by 'strangling' you mean the the govt's are accumulating all available gold for their strategic reserves?
Perhaps by 'strangling' you mean the the govt's are accumulating all available gold for their strategic reserves?
Nope. India's gold reserves have remained essentially flat.
They bought a bunch from the IMF a while ago as I recall. I don't remember exactly when, and of course I have no idea if they managed to take delivery. I would not be one bit surprised if they got the shaft unless they were willing to be content moving some paper around describing ownership of phyzzz in London. In any event it's not like anyone is under an obligation to divulge exactly what they are doing. IIRC, China's holding like doubled over one night. I don't treat any statement from any government as gospel for this sort of thing personally.
Seems that in ~chodpaba's world, though, what happened with gold several years ago is meaningless now that in a giant and sudden shift everyone is rejecting gold as a representation of value...for the first time in about 5000 years. I'll buy into that in a heartbeat as soon as I hear credible stories of cost effective nuclear transmutation.
When was the last time we did something that we had not done in the last 5000 tears?
We do new things all the time. A better question was when was the last time a bedrock and universal behavior such as storing wealth in PMs stood for such a length of time just vanished? It takes some rhetoric to argue that gold is a forgotten relic when there is so much effort on the parts of central banks keep it in their vaults (or pretend to anyway.)
I actually mostly respond here to say that I had not exposed myself to Sprott's latest KWN interview when I penned about India several posts back, and I believe I can honestly say that my musings about the posture of the Indian government were almost exclusively my own thesis. Then I listen to Eric Sprott and he says almost the exact same thing. Had he not said it first, I would have been suspicious that the guy reads this forum.
...
Perhaps by 'strangling' you mean the the govt's are accumulating all available gold for their strategic reserves?
Perhaps by 'strangling' you mean the the govt's are accumulating all available gold for their strategic reserves?
Nope. India's gold reserves have remained essentially flat.
They bought a bunch from the IMF a while ago as I recall. I don't remember exactly when, and of course I have no idea if they managed to take delivery. I would not be one bit surprised if they got the shaft unless they were willing to be content moving some paper around describing ownership of phyzzz in London. In any event it's not like anyone is under an obligation to divulge exactly what they are doing. IIRC, China's holding like doubled over one night. I don't treat any statement from any government as gospel for this sort of thing personally.
Seems that in ~chodpaba's world, though, what happened with gold several years ago is meaningless now that in a giant and sudden shift everyone is rejecting gold as a representation of value...for the first time in about 5000 years. I'll buy into that in a heartbeat as soon as I hear credible stories of cost effective nuclear transmutation.
When was the last time we did something that we had not done in the last 5000 tears?
tcp/ip
bitcoin
...
Perhaps by 'strangling' you mean the the govt's are accumulating all available gold for their strategic reserves?
Perhaps by 'strangling' you mean the the govt's are accumulating all available gold for their strategic reserves?
Nope. India's gold reserves have remained essentially flat.
They bought a bunch from the IMF a while ago as I recall. I don't remember exactly when, and of course I have no idea if they managed to take delivery. I would not be one bit surprised if they got the shaft unless they were willing to be content moving some paper around describing ownership of phyzzz in London. In any event it's not like anyone is under an obligation to divulge exactly what they are doing. IIRC, China's holding like doubled over one night. I don't treat any statement from any government as gospel for this sort of thing personally.
Seems that in ~chodpaba's world, though, what happened with gold several years ago is meaningless now that in a giant and sudden shift everyone is rejecting gold as a representation of value...for the first time in about 5000 years. I'll buy into that in a heartbeat as soon as I hear credible stories of cost effective nuclear transmutation.
...
Keep in mind those are wholesale premiums. That will accelerate very quickly as physical shortages become more apparent, starting with Asia and India.
Keep in mind those are wholesale premiums. That will accelerate very quickly as physical shortages become more apparent, starting with Asia and India.
That makes sense, since the Indian government is actively strangling gold imports.
India currently does pretty much what the West tells them to unless they REALLY have no realistic alternative (e.g., getting oil from Iran.) I don't doubt that they would stab their people in the back when it comes to allowing their citizens to protect themselves at the expense of Western financial interests.
My read over the last few years has been that, if anything, China is encouraging their plebs to accumulate...though admittedly I end up reading mostly pro-gold stuff. I suspect that the Govt knows that they can appropriate some percentage of the holdings of their subjects if/when it makes sense to do so.
Perhaps by 'strangling' you mean the the govt's are accumulating all available gold for their strategic reserves?
Great charts in this article from Tocqueville's Hathaway.
Especially important is the chart of premiums:
Keep in mind those are wholesale premiums. That will accelerate very quickly as physical shortages become more apparent, starting with Asia and India.
Especially important is the chart of premiums:
Keep in mind those are wholesale premiums. That will accelerate very quickly as physical shortages become more apparent, starting with Asia and India.
How can I value gold when I don't even know how much there is in the world held by who
Gold has a proof problem the Bitcoin does not.
There is all the bitcoin that disappears due to neglect... whether or not you consider that to ever have existed in the first place, I suppose would be irrelevant.
-apathetic.
how does that even hurt in fact it makes the remainder more valuable
wont anyone think of the poor neglected bitcoins?!?
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