Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 621.

Adrian-x

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: justusranvier on December 15, 2014, 02:42:45 PM

Quote from: msin on December 15, 2014, 02:10:29 PM

The more people are paid in BTC for services, employment, etc. the higher the price of BTC will go.

They have to be paid in BTC, and they have to save in BTC.

Otherwise it won't work.

Not necessarily - They have to be paid in BTC thus causing "releasing" of coins from certain individuals (like yourself) for goods and services, and keep the BTC OR sell into the hands of wealthy USD holders buying the BTC from the Vendors/3rd Party providers and them saving.

We are in the transfer of wealth stage - but its being done quietly and off the books. We wont see increase in price unless a true ETF hits, or we get within 6-8 months of halving.

Sit back relax and enjoy the ride.

I'm generally in this camp, but I don't think many understand what's going to happen at halving, there is even a reasonable probability that Bitcoin may look dead 6 months after halving and then explode into its new price energy zone.

While I give credit to the velocity of money theory that creates value this is an end game occurrence. At the moment I think we have an equilibrium between mining investment and profit taking. If too many new coins are saved we'll see it reflected in an increase in difficulty driven by price, this could cause a rush to get into Bitcoin along with many other triggers like an ETF of some new "banking innovation"

I think the total traded coins are quite small and wealth transfer is happening but it's not a competitive environment, rather new owners are treading with caution.

Jungian

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: justusranvier on December 15, 2014, 02:42:45 PM

Quote from: msin on December 15, 2014, 02:10:29 PM

The more people are paid in BTC for services, employment, etc. the higher the price of BTC will go.

They have to be paid in BTC, and they have to save in BTC.

Otherwise it won't work.

Not necessarily - They have to be paid in BTC thus causing "releasing" of coins from certain individuals (like yourself) for goods and services, and keep the BTC OR sell into the hands of wealthy USD holders buying the BTC from the Vendors/3rd Party providers and them saving.

We are in the transfer of wealth stage - but its being done quietly and off the books. We wont see increase in price unless a true ETF hits, or we get within 6-8 months of halving.

Sit back relax and enjoy the ride.

I would also tend to believe they intend to save some of the money and not spend ALL off it. The upside to have your whole paycheck in BTC but also spend all of it every month seems like a bad trade to me.

justusranvier

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Quote from: msin on December 15, 2014, 02:10:29 PM

The more people are paid in BTC for services, employment, etc. the higher the price of BTC will go.

They have to be paid in BTC, and they have to save in BTC.

Otherwise it won't work.

msin

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Quote from: justusranvier on December 15, 2014, 01:58:25 PM

Every person who sells their productivity for Bitcoin and does not immediately spend what they earn is contributing to that ~$1.3 million/day requirement.

This will be the key to a major price spike in my opinion. The more people are paid in BTC for services, employment, etc. the higher the price of BTC will go.

justusranvier

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Quote from: Peter R on December 15, 2014, 01:33:57 PM

At ~3600 BTC/day, the current price of ~$350 / BTC requires ~$1.3 million of new capital (money, energy for hashing, etc) to enter the system.

Your list of capital types should include products and services.

Every person who sells their productivity for Bitcoin and does not immediately spend what they earn is contributing to that ~$1.3 million/day requirement.

cypherdoc

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Quote from: Peter R on December 15, 2014, 01:33:57 PM

Bitcoin's inflation schedule is quite ingenious actually because the new supply forces the price back to a level commensurate with new demand. It's not possible for the price to remain overly-hyped for too long.

yes it is, isn't it?

the asymptotic distribution schedule encourages new miners to get in and attempt to compete for these new coins with each and every new innovative or economically advantageous way they can devise. current miners are encouraged to stay as long as they can keep up with costs. new buyers of BTC are encouraged to get in on a new fixed supply currency that is "still" bootstrapping itself.

it's obvious now (but not always in times past) that pre-mined or IPO'd altcoins are unfair to new entrants.

Peter R

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Quote from: chriswilmer on December 15, 2014, 01:07:15 PM

Quote from: shields on December 15, 2014, 04:32:07 AM

Growth isn't an axis on the chart. The y-axis is expectations not growth. By the time of maturity Bitcoin could be a lot bigger than it was at the height of expectations, but have lower expectations.

This is a true statement in general, however simple arithmetic (ok, and some reasonable assumptions about use cases) implies that the price of Bitcoin would have to be at least 100x larger if it had, say, a billion users. So, if the price of Bitcoin today was $5 million per BTC, then I would agree with you... the Bitcoin ecosystem could keep growing while the expectations (i.e., market price) would just keep going down (because expectations went unreasonably high, beyond the equilibrium value). However, at current prices, it's just impossible for Bitcoin to grow much more without also raising the market price.

I'll add that the new coin supply (25 BTC block reward every 10 min) makes it difficult for investors to cling to unrealistic expectations over the medium term. At ~3600 BTC/day, the current price of ~$350 / BTC requires ~$1.3 million of new capital (money, energy for hashing, etc) to enter the system. A stable price means that there's sufficient demand to absorb these new coins. A price based on "unrealistic expectations" cannot last because the new coin supply requires that market participants continuously inject new capital to back their unrealistic expectation---but eventually they run out of money and the price falls. (E.g., if the BTC price was $5 million per coin like Chris mentioned, it would require $18 billion in new capital each day. Even if every current holder refused to sell for less than $5 million the price would still drop unless those holders in aggregate can inject $18 billion each day to absorb the mining supply.)

Bitcoin's inflation schedule is quite ingenious actually because the new supply forces the price back to a level commensurate with new demand. It's not possible for the price to remain overly-hyped for too long.

chriswilmer

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Quote from: shields on December 15, 2014, 04:32:07 AM

Growth isn't an axis on the chart. The y-axis is expectations not growth. By the time of maturity Bitcoin could be a lot bigger than it was at the height of expectations, but have lower expectations.

This is a true statement in general, however simple arithmetic (ok, and some reasonable assumptions about use cases) implies that the price of Bitcoin would have to be at least 100x larger if it had, say, a billion users. So, if the price of Bitcoin today was $5 million per BTC, then I would agree with you... the Bitcoin ecosystem could keep growing while the expectations (i.e., market price) would just keep going down (because expectations went unreasonably high, beyond the equilibrium value). However, at current prices, it's just impossible for Bitcoin to grow much more without also raising the market price.

justusranvier

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Quote from: cypherdoc on December 15, 2014, 09:40:30 AM

We can't rely on Bob not to spam the blockchain (to the point of disrupting service) using a bazillion Bob coins, each of zero market value, therefore the only answer is that transaction fees must remain in bitcoin to use the bitcoin blockchain (or sidechains denominated in bitcoin).

That quote makes me think there's still an unmet need for collaboration between cryptographers and market economists.

cypherdoc

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that sweet smell of deflation:

and more black hole shit:

yowzer!:

cypherdoc

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still no go. Wall St does not believe in you dear plebes:

cypherdoc

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hella intraday reversal. look the hella out:

dEBRUYNE

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Quote from: solex on December 15, 2014, 05:39:47 AM

Quote from: Melbustus on December 15, 2014, 05:04:26 AM

Quote from: molecular on December 15, 2014, 02:16:18 AM

...

I'm hearing that timeframe thrown around a lot (1 or 2 years).

It coincides with the next halving, to it's an intuitive fit. It also makes sense to see a long sideways (or slightly downwards or whatever) stretch as it usually happens in bitcoin after a huge runup has corrected. It also makes sense that it would take longer than in the past because the market has grown in number of participants, so it's quite conceivable it behaves more sluggishly.

However my gut says we'll see a substantial rise before 1 year has passed (i.e. in 2015). Not necessarily breaking the ath yet, but substantial. Why? Continual adoption plus the experience of the last halving will have the effect that more players will price in the halving sooner (or at all) than last time, so we might get an ignition before, not after the actual reward halving occurs.
...

I feel like the chatter about the halving has already started. Feels like early-mid 2012 in that regard.

June 2016 still a way off.
However, Namecoin is halving tomorrow which might produce an interesting market reaction (or not :-)

Up 20% currently, look at those weird up & down spikes on the chart: https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btce/nmcbtc

cypherdoc

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Quote from: sickpig on December 15, 2014, 09:26:55 AM

cypher it seems another one has joined your side Tongue

https://twitter.com/adam3us/status/544494460294680576

I wish. From the comments by Adam:

We can't rely on Bob not to spam the blockchain (to the point of disrupting service) using a bazillion Bob coins, each of zero market value, therefore the only answer is that transaction fees must remain in bitcoin to use the bitcoin blockchain (or sidechains denominated in bitcoin).

sickpig

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cypher it seems another one has joined your side Tongue

https://twitter.com/adam3us/status/544494460294680576

sickpig

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"Chinese banks are haemorrhaging their deposits ..."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-14/forget-the-toaster-chinese-bank-offers-mercedes-to-get-deposits.html

and even a russian bank seems to use the same technique:

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/c1-bank-brings-back-its-1-million-mercedes-benz-cd-just-in-time-for-the-holidays-300002192.html

edit: fix grammar

solex

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100 satoshis -> ISO code

Quote from: Melbustus on December 15, 2014, 05:04:26 AM

Quote from: molecular on December 15, 2014, 02:16:18 AM

...

I'm hearing that timeframe thrown around a lot (1 or 2 years).

It coincides with the next halving, to it's an intuitive fit. It also makes sense to see a long sideways (or slightly downwards or whatever) stretch as it usually happens in bitcoin after a huge runup has corrected. It also makes sense that it would take longer than in the past because the market has grown in number of participants, so it's quite conceivable it behaves more sluggishly.

However my gut says we'll see a substantial rise before 1 year has passed (i.e. in 2015). Not necessarily breaking the ath yet, but substantial. Why? Continual adoption plus the experience of the last halving will have the effect that more players will price in the halving sooner (or at all) than last time, so we might get an ignition before, not after the actual reward halving occurs.
...

I feel like the chatter about the halving has already started. Feels like early-mid 2012 in that regard.

June 2016 still a way off.
However, Namecoin is halving tomorrow which might produce an interesting market reaction (or not :-)

Melbustus

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Quote from: molecular on December 15, 2014, 02:16:18 AM

...

I'm hearing that timeframe thrown around a lot (1 or 2 years).

It coincides with the next halving, to it's an intuitive fit. It also makes sense to see a long sideways (or slightly downwards or whatever) stretch as it usually happens in bitcoin after a huge runup has corrected. It also makes sense that it would take longer than in the past because the market has grown in number of participants, so it's quite conceivable it behaves more sluggishly.

However my gut says we'll see a substantial rise before 1 year has passed (i.e. in 2015). Not necessarily breaking the ath yet, but substantial. Why? Continual adoption plus the experience of the last halving will have the effect that more players will price in the halving sooner (or at all) than last time, so we might get an ignition before, not after the actual reward halving occurs.
...

I feel like the chatter about the halving has already started. Feels like early-mid 2012 in that regard.

shields

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Quote from: smooth on December 14, 2014, 08:25:21 PM

Quote from: cypherdoc on December 14, 2014, 07:36:22 PM

Quote from: BldSwtTrs on December 14, 2014, 05:42:57 PM

I have stumbled upon this chart on the internet, regarding the Gartner's hype cycle:

As of July 2014, cryptos just came out of the peak of inflated expectations to enter the trough of disillusionment. It is safe to say that the trough of disillusionment don't last only 6 months but typically can last 2 to 3 years. So maybe Bitcoin will be as revolutionary as we think but the bear market will last another 1 or 2 years. What do you think about that?

i don't think we've even reached the Peak in that graph. considering the $5T traded PER DAY in the Forex markets plus the $8T valued gold market, we've only just begun.

The thing I don't like about the graph is the shape of it, where the true growth never reaches the hype. Sure that happens, but there are many technologies that go through a hype phase and a bust, but then the real growth on the right side eventually eclipses the original hype.

It is possible that Bitcoin is doing that (with the peak in late 2013/early 2014) and will indeed, eventually grow to something on the scale of trillions far exceeding the previous peak, but somewhat more slowly.

Also, I don't believe it is really possible to position/rank/value technologies on the left side of the peak. You only know the peak in hindsight.

Growth isn't an axis on the chart. The y-axis is expectations not growth. By the time of maturity Bitcoin could be a lot bigger than it was at the height of expectations, but have lower expectations.

molecular

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Quote from: BldSwtTrs on December 14, 2014, 05:42:57 PM

I have stumbled upon this chart on the internet, regarding the Gartner's hype cycle:

As of July 2014, cryptos just came out of the peak of inflated expectations to enter the trough of disillusionment. It is safe to say that the trough of disillusionment don't last only 6 months but typically can last 2 to 3 years. So maybe Bitcoin will be as revolutionary as we think but the bear market will last another 1 or 2 years. What do you think about that?

I'm hearing that timeframe thrown around a lot (1 or 2 years).

It coincides with the next halving, to it's an intuitive fit. It also makes sense to see a long sideways (or slightly downwards or whatever) stretch as it usually happens in bitcoin after a huge runup has corrected. It also makes sense that it would take longer than in the past because the market has grown in number of participants, so it's quite conceivable it behaves more sluggishly.

However my gut says we'll see a substantial rise before 1 year has passed (i.e. in 2015). Not necessarily breaking the ath yet, but substantial. Why? Continual adoption plus the experience of the last halving will have the effect that more players will price in the halving sooner (or at all) than last time, so we might get an ignition before, not after the actual reward halving occurs.

At some point the rising price will create another hype in a positive feedback loop. Noone know where that will take us and really noone knows when or even if it will occur. Some black swan type event can happen at any time external to bitcoin and trigger it, too.

I'm betting on it. Be it 1 day or 2 years.

If bitcoin fails to break the ath by end of 2016 or falls and remains below $266 for an extended period (months), then I'm worried.

Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 621. (Read 2032266 times)