Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 622. (Read 2032266 times)
This guy gets it. Does anyone keep a shortlist of who is on the investor side, prominent figures and/or forum and reddit posters? I could name a few people off the top of my head, but it might be useful to have a list.
Gold could go down 20% or maybe 30% but it can go up 50%, 100% or a lot more so it seems like a good investment especially since you can have Gold without much third party risk.
Gold is certainly a good bet at this point, brother. See here for patterns and details: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-collapsing-gold-up-869664
Gold is aided by the drop in oil barrel pricing as alot of the costs are related to energy and construction equipment gets pretty bad mileage! Also any worries on country credit worthiness should help gold which is retained by central banks for this purpose as an irrefutable exchange of worth in global trade. Also low oil causes problems with rebalancing budgets, USA is consumer of course but elsewhere; Venezuela nears default
bitcoin $5 Bill
Paypal $50 Bill
Alibaba IPO $200 Bill
Microsoft $390 Bill
Apple $640 Bill
Morgan Stanley Managed Private Wealth Funds $1.5 Trill
Gold $7 Trill
Offshore Deposits $15 Trill
Global M2 money supply $60 Trill
Gross World Product $80 Trill
Global Notional Derivatives $800 Trill
.... we are at the bottom of HUGE mountain range looking upwards.
Paypal $50 Bill
Alibaba IPO $200 Bill
Microsoft $390 Bill
Apple $640 Bill
Morgan Stanley Managed Private Wealth Funds $1.5 Trill
Gold $7 Trill
Offshore Deposits $15 Trill
Global M2 money supply $60 Trill
Gross World Product $80 Trill
Global Notional Derivatives $800 Trill
.... we are at the bottom of HUGE mountain range looking upwards.
...
and we really are a mere 5 yrs in. when i bought in i mentally told myself i would give it to 2020 to make a final decision on Bitcoin esp if it hadn't failed by then. that's still 6 whole years away.
and we really are a mere 5 yrs in. when i bought in i mentally told myself i would give it to 2020 to make a final decision on Bitcoin esp if it hadn't failed by then. that's still 6 whole years away.
I gave myself 10yrs from when I first dove in to do any re-evaluation (assuming no core protocol/crypto issues, etc). So Bitcoin has an extra year to prove itself to me vs you.
I have stumbled upon this chart on the internet, regarding the Gartner's hype cycle:
As of July 2014, cryptos just came out of the peak of inflated expectations to enter the trough of disillusionment. It is safe to say that the trough of disillusionment don't last only 6 months but typically can last 2 to 3 years. So maybe Bitcoin will be as revolutionary as we think but the bear market will last another 1 or 2 years. What do you think about that?
As of July 2014, cryptos just came out of the peak of inflated expectations to enter the trough of disillusionment. It is safe to say that the trough of disillusionment don't last only 6 months but typically can last 2 to 3 years. So maybe Bitcoin will be as revolutionary as we think but the bear market will last another 1 or 2 years. What do you think about that?
i don't think we've even reached the Peak in that graph. considering the $5T traded PER DAY in the Forex markets plus the $8T valued gold market, we've only just begun.
The thing I don't like about the graph is the shape of it, where the true growth never reaches the hype. Sure that happens, but there are many technologies that go through a hype phase and a bust, but then the real growth on the right side eventually eclipses the original hype.
It is possible that Bitcoin is doing that (with the peak in late 2013/early 2014) and will indeed, eventually grow to something on the scale of trillions far exceeding the previous peak, but somewhat more slowly.
Also, I don't believe it is really possible to position/rank/value technologies on the left side of the peak. You only know the peak in hindsight.
yeah, you're right in that i don't think its a good graph either as applied to Bitcoin.
we're talking about a new money here. one built for the internet. there's a reason alot of us think the result will be binary; either zero or to the moon. it's b/c the real problems of the day are due to CB printing to the tune of $trillions. Bitcoin is a measly $5B. the network effects of money are enormous and IF Bitcoin becomes a global currency who really knows just how high we can go?
and we really are a mere 5 yrs in. when i bought in i mentally told myself i would give it to 2020 to make a final decision on Bitcoin esp if it hadn't failed by then. that's still 6 whole years away.
so oil is getting it hard: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-14/exposing-oil-price-shock-contagion-transmission-pathway 
what is happening? this cannot end well
Quote
As we noted previously, counterparty risk concerns (and thus financial system fragility) are starting to rear their ugly heads.
what is happening? this cannot end well
High leverage magnifies the risks inherent in asset or commodity price volatility. Any large move is extremely bad news for such a financial system. In 2007 it was oil (up) and real estate (down). Now we are seeing much the opposite. There will be winners and losers. The winners don't matter, but losers mean huge counterparty risks and therefore lead to a risk-off trading cycle.
I have stumbled upon this chart on the internet, regarding the Gartner's hype cycle:
As of July 2014, cryptos just came out of the peak of inflated expectations to enter the trough of disillusionment. It is safe to say that the trough of disillusionment don't last only 6 months but typically can last 2 to 3 years. So maybe Bitcoin will be as revolutionary as we think but the bear market will last another 1 or 2 years. What do you think about that?
As of July 2014, cryptos just came out of the peak of inflated expectations to enter the trough of disillusionment. It is safe to say that the trough of disillusionment don't last only 6 months but typically can last 2 to 3 years. So maybe Bitcoin will be as revolutionary as we think but the bear market will last another 1 or 2 years. What do you think about that?
i don't think we've even reached the Peak in that graph. considering the $5T traded PER DAY in the Forex markets plus the $8T valued gold market, we've only just begun.
The thing I don't like about the graph is the shape of it, where the true growth never reaches the hype. Sure that happens, but there are many technologies that go through a hype phase and a bust, but then the real growth on the right side eventually eclipses the original hype.
It is possible that Bitcoin is doing that (with the peak in late 2013/early 2014) and will indeed, eventually grow to something on the scale of trillions far exceeding the previous peak, but somewhat more slowly.
Also, I don't believe it is really possible to position/rank/value technologies on the left side of the peak. You only know the peak in hindsight.
I have stumbled upon this chart on the internet, regarding the Gartner's hype cycle:
As of July 2014, cryptos just came out of the peak of inflated expectations to enter the trough of disillusionment. It is safe to say that the trough of disillusionment don't last only 6 months but typically can last 2 to 3 years. So maybe Bitcoin will be as revolutionary as we think but the bear market will last another 1 or 2 years. What do you think about that?
As of July 2014, cryptos just came out of the peak of inflated expectations to enter the trough of disillusionment. It is safe to say that the trough of disillusionment don't last only 6 months but typically can last 2 to 3 years. So maybe Bitcoin will be as revolutionary as we think but the bear market will last another 1 or 2 years. What do you think about that?
i don't think we've even reached the Peak in that graph. considering the $5T traded PER DAY in the Forex markets plus the $8T valued gold market, we've only just begun.
As of July 2014, cryptos just came out of the peak of inflated expectations to enter the trough of disillusionment. It is safe to say that the trough of disillusionment don't last only 6 months but typically can last 2 to 3 years. So maybe Bitcoin will be as revolutionary as we think but the bear market will last another 1 or 2 years. What do you think about that?
If Bitcoin is going to be revolutionary that means that many more people will be buying and using it in the future and that means the price will have to be much higher than it is now. Most people are still dismissing it outright and only a small fraction has bothered to buy some coins, so I don't see how anyone can say that we've seen the peak already, unless they think it's going to fail or a new cryptocoin will take over. But assuming it's going to be revolutionary, we've seen nothing yet and still have a few bull markets to go before the masses have warmed up to it and we reach the real peak.
... So maybe Bitcoin will be as revolutionary as we think but the bear market will last another 1 or 2 years. What do you think about that?
2014-10-14 was end of bear market. I think, there are no more bitcoins for sale under $340.
I have stumbled upon this chart on the internet, regarding the Gartner's hype cycle:
As of July 2014, cryptos just came out of the peak of inflated expectations to enter the trough of disillusionment. It is safe to say that the trough of disillusionment don't last only 6 months but typically can last 2 to 3 years. So maybe Bitcoin will be as revolutionary as we think but the bear market will last another 1 or 2 years. What do you think about that?
As of July 2014, cryptos just came out of the peak of inflated expectations to enter the trough of disillusionment. It is safe to say that the trough of disillusionment don't last only 6 months but typically can last 2 to 3 years. So maybe Bitcoin will be as revolutionary as we think but the bear market will last another 1 or 2 years. What do you think about that?
Daniel again.
notice how he says that as long as we are in a transition to a new currency (Bitcoin), which we are, he would not engage in Bitcoin lending (loans). iow, he would not recommend Bitcoin "speculation", specifically imo, that which SC's looks to promote. the SC's ppl are his "entrepreneur" class:
https://epicenterbitcoin.com/podcast/056/
notice how he says that as long as we are in a transition to a new currency (Bitcoin), which we are, he would not engage in Bitcoin lending (loans). iow, he would not recommend Bitcoin "speculation", specifically imo, that which SC's looks to promote. the SC's ppl are his "entrepreneur" class:
https://epicenterbitcoin.com/podcast/056/
so oil is getting it hard: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-14/exposing-oil-price-shock-contagion-transmission-pathway
what is happening? this cannot end well
Quote
As we noted previously, counterparty risk concerns (and thus financial system fragility) are starting to rear their ugly heads.
what is happening? this cannot end well
selling in Nov 2013 was not a bad call, especially if a guy had use for money in 2014.
Selling on November 3rd was a good call?Well just generally late 2013 early 2014 was a good call for cash to be used in 2014. For tax reason (which ended up not panning out) I deferred most of my sales to just after Jan 1, but I did take some profits in late 2013 just to be safe. If the guy anticipated a top around the 2013->2014 transition, saying so in early Nov wasn't bad. I mean anyone who knows what they are doing is not going to be leaving multiple hundreds large laying around with easy access so it will take a lot of people some lead time for staging in order to make a block of sales.
Matonis on point again:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2013/02/24/the-cashless-utopia-mirage/
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2013/02/24/the-cashless-utopia-mirage/
He's right. Here is an example of the statist, surveilance state, tyranny utopia, cashless money system 247 Remit Plus in the Phillipines, that will of course go nowhere:
http://www.interaksyon.com/business/101146/247-remitplus-app-to-enhance-fight-vs-money-laundering-terror-financing-gets-copyright-approval
Yes, it's all there: The system keeps lists of people that are exempt from payments, five year old payments can be rolled back.
Matonis on point again:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2013/02/24/the-cashless-utopia-mirage/
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2013/02/24/the-cashless-utopia-mirage/
He should make up his mind:
- tweet image: http://nakamotoinstitute.org/static/img/the-skeptics/emin-gun-sirer-2013-11-03.jpg
- tweet image: http://nakamotoinstitute.org/static/img/the-skeptics/emin-gun-sirer-2013-11-03.jpg
I don't know who the guy is, but selling in Nov 2013 was not a bad call, especially if a guy had use for money in 2014. I'll hope the same does not end up applying to 2015 as well.
I also would neither agree nor dis-agree with his contention about protocol level deficiencies. The contention rests very heavily on how Bitcoin is used in native form. If as backing for sidechains, for instance, I would tentatively disagree. If as a native exchange currency for the human inhabitants of planet earth to conduct even a small fraction of their general economic transactions in the 21st century, I could not agree more.
edit: slight
selling btc on nov. 4th 2013 was actually really bad timing.
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