Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 883. (Read 2032266 times)

Well, note that I said valuation, not price.

Predicting BTC price is virtually impossible, IMO.  I'd suspect that the value of BTC will continue to rise.  In my opinion (just one guy), the proper valuation metric might very well be what percentage of global M2 takes place in the form of BTC transactions (and also what percentage of global M2 is held in BTC as a store of value).

The price will continue to cross back and forth over that line at unpredictable intervals, kind of like this (pic is irrelevant, other that the fact that it's a graphic representation of what I'm talking about)



I suspect that, yes, the historical growth rate will change.  Two years ago, BTC was around $15.  Now it's around $350.  Will it continue to grow at a rate of 23x every 2 years?  I don't think we'll see:

2016: 8050
2018: 185,150
2020: 4,258,250 (at which point, BTC would, as pointed out above, equal total global M2)

So I guess that unless one subscribes to the Pantera document, growth in PRICE will slow moving forward.

That said, I'm a believer.  I love the protocol, the team, the adaptability.  Definitely NOT trying to start a fight about it.  If one buys BTC today at $350 and sells it at $2300 in 6 years, that is a fabulous return.  There will also be long periods where BTC is far, far above that value metric.  If the M2 metric says BTC is worth $2300, there is no reason to think that the price couldn't be 5x or 10x (or more) because markets, being forward-looking, might well price in future M2 transaction and store-of-value gains.

Bigger traders see pattern change for bitcoin also apparently


https://twitter.com/alaidi


In 2008 everything went down together if I recall right and at the time people said it was a sign of price inaccuracy or quite simply panic, forced selling.   There were some bargains at that time from that phenomena. in retrospect

Probably from lack of funding. I bet they'll be much more responsive now.

It's very important for the community to have a Web served client based wallet like this available for the masses. They've been around forever and i do trust Roger to uphold most of the original principles surrounding Bitcoin,  however you want to define those.

Nice chart, Peter.

They still haven't fixed the address reuse problem in the wallets, going on 3 years now.

This would imply that you're also predicting a significant change in bitcoin's historical growth rate starting now.  What would make you believe that growth would be vastly slower moving forward?

When BTC starts taking bigger chunks out of fiat currencies, gold and bonds, you'll see quite a bit more than $2300 in 2020...

My quick and dirty valuation of BTC in 2020 is also based on M2.  Not completely incomprehensible that BTC could be 5% of M2 by 2020, or $2300 or so per BTC.

I'd be okay with 100k too.

All your coins are belonging to us: http://abcnews.go.com/Business/judge-10-rare-gold-coins-worth-80-million/story?id=17159793

those wet dreams about becoming a bitcoin millionaire...

new goal: becoming a bitcoin billionaire

 

Excellent time to be earning dollars, spending euros and saving in bitcoins

Call it an "upper bound" on price .... but if btc ever gets near $4.3 mill then you'll be wiping your bottom with dead presidents faces and the world will be a very different place, hopefully for the better.

I am skeptical about the downward TA breakthroughs on all of these charts, including the PM just because they are dollar denominated and dollars are high. (maybe too high?).  It may still be a little too soon to tell, but certainly 3rd world resource exporters are getting crushed.

Dollar is all jacked up on overextended QE which has pushed equities into the stratosphere.  This is just now starting to unwind, but is going to take a long time.
The worst of it is that QE is now deemed a success so we will probably see a lot more of it.
Banks are still holding on to all the cash and not lending (not at these rates, they aren't crazy).  When they do start lending, it will be a delicate balance between productive investment (on their part, they have all the money just now), and inflation.

There is some incentive to be first out of the gate in this so that the competition's cash assets get inflated more.  There are potential cascading risks, and complexity issues, which can get compounded if there is a reverse run on banks (fighting to profitably lend). 

Things can get weird.  So happy for Bitcoin just now.

"Pantera Capital is an investment firm focused exclusively on Bitcoin, other digital currencies and companies in the space."
https://panteracapital.com/about/

It is called "talking your book".

EUR/USD= 1.2636



pretty weak indeed..
inb4 the euro/dollar 1/1 parity

"The Dollar is strong"....lol

I'd say that "The Dollar is less weak than it was a little while ago but only temporarily."

$1000+ for an oz of gold....1000 dollars to one ounce of gold....i'd say that the dollar is pretty weak.

 

If everything else would be going down and bitcoin going up, that could mean super hyper mega bubb...ramp up in bitcoin price  The Manipulator, make it happen!

Well, they used M2, not M3 or some other bigger measure... It's probably not unreasonable to count M2 as the target, since that comprises what we really think of as core money; ie, what's in our bank accounts. The weird leveraged stuff doesn't come into play until higher-order aggregates.

And note that the fact that banks create most of the bank-account money through fractional reserve doesn't matter for the validly of using M2 as bitcoin's target... M2 is effectively the sum of the real base *money*; ie, balances of the thing we use directly as the unit of account/exchange. In a bitcoin world, we would still need exactly these balances in bitcoin.