jk, my family has rolling bad luck with raffles.
Topic: Got my BFL Single today and I'm raffling it away for 0.5BTC! - page 5. (Read 29283 times)
Haha, good. Leave the hashing to be done by me when its shipped to me.
jk, my family has rolling bad luck with raffles.
jk, my family has rolling bad luck with raffles.
hero member
Activity: 588
Merit: 500
Hero VIP ultra official trusted super staff puppet
Why is this even discussed?
Because the last 3 blocks are taking forever.
Matthew: Is the Single turned on?
Why is this even discussed?
Because the last 3 blocks are taking forever.
Matthew: Is the Single turned on?
hero member
Activity: 588
Merit: 500
Hero VIP ultra official trusted super staff puppet
EDIT: WTF, totally ninja'd by Blazr. >.<
The force of boxxy is strong with this one.
Why is this even discussed?
Because the last 3 blocks are taking forever.
Bingo.
By fair you mean wouldn't change the odds?
My brain tells me the answer is no, but I'd have to run that by professor google.
It would unnecessarily complicate the raffle and drag it on for a lot longer. Sounds like fun.
Why is this even discussed?
Because the last 3 blocks are taking forever.
Why is this even discussed?
hero member
Activity: 588
Merit: 500
Hero VIP ultra official trusted super staff puppet
Since I feel awful about this, I am going to give 100 free tickets to everyone*
(*This is a joke considering it wouldn't change your odds at all.)
Actually, that would change the odds. Pretend there is only 2 people in the raffle, I have 50 tickets, other person has 100 tickets. My odds of winning are 3:1.
You give us both 100 tickets each. I now have 150 tickets and other person has 200 tickets. My odds of winning are now 2.33:1
You're right. What about 10% across the board instead of 100 tickets?
That is fair.
By fair you mean wouldn't change the odds?
Since I feel awful about this, I am going to give 100 free tickets to everyone*
(*This is a joke considering it wouldn't change your odds at all.)
Actually, that would change the odds. Pretend there is only 2 people in the raffle, I have 50 tickets, other person has 100 tickets. My odds of winning are 3:1.
You give us both 100 tickets each. I now have 150 tickets and other person has 200 tickets. My odds of winning are now 2.33:1
You're right. What about 10% across the board instead of 100 tickets?
That is fair.
Holy shit, can this get any more complicated? Note to future self: don't do BTC raffles.
How so negative?
I'd say Matthew is pioneering the way to Bitcoin raffles!
From this initial pilot project we will develop a protocol for future raffles.
hero member
Activity: 588
Merit: 500
Hero VIP ultra official trusted super staff puppet
Since I feel awful about this, I am going to give 100 free tickets to everyone*
(*This is a joke considering it wouldn't change your odds at all.)
Actually, that would change the odds. Pretend there is only 2 people in the raffle, I have 50 tickets, other person has 100 tickets. My odds of winning are 3:1.
You give us both 100 tickets each. I now have 150 tickets and other person has 200 tickets. My odds of winning are now 2.33:1
You're right. What about 10% across the board instead of 100 tickets?
So the total is now 40620 tickets then?
UPDATE: I updated the spreadsheet to reflect the modified referral-finder code.
Note that only the referrals were having an issue. All other data is still already verified.
The updated total referrals count went from 30 to 44, so that means that my error was cheating people on the lower half of the spreadsheet out of 14 referrals.
Since I feel awful about this, I am going to give 100 free tickets to everyone*
(*This is a joke considering it wouldn't change your odds at all.)
Ermm... giving 100 free tickets WOULD change your odds.Note that only the referrals were having an issue. All other data is still already verified.
The updated total referrals count went from 30 to 44, so that means that my error was cheating people on the lower half of the spreadsheet out of 14 referrals.
Since I feel awful about this, I am going to give 100 free tickets to everyone*
(*This is a joke considering it wouldn't change your odds at all.)
If I have 75/100 tickets, and another person has 25/100 tickets, then my odds of winning are 75%, and his are 25%. Now you give both of us an extra 100 tickets. I now have 175/300 tickets, and he has 125/300 tickets. My new odds of winning are 58.3%, and his new odds of winning are 41.7%.
Just sayin.
Also, Blazr, good point about using a pre-recorded stream. I hadn't thought of that. Maybe also showing some live chat at the same time would suffice, but then it is getting complicated.
EDIT: WTF, totally ninja'd by Blazr. >.<
Here guys, I heard you needed some tinfoil.
Since I feel awful about this, I am going to give 100 free tickets to everyone*
(*This is a joke considering it wouldn't change your odds at all.)
Actually, that would change the odds. Pretend there is only 2 people in the raffle, I have 50 tickets, other person has 100 tickets. My odds of winning are 3:1.
You give us both 100 tickets each. I now have 150 tickets and other person has 200 tickets. My odds of winning are now 2.33:1
hero member
Activity: 588
Merit: 500
Hero VIP ultra official trusted super staff puppet
Oh and I know many people who use random.org and just stream the pick on ustream or justin tv.
Problem is, how would we know that the stream wasn't pre-recorded?
Also, how would we know that the person wasn't using a greasemonkey script to change the number on the random.org website?
I'm going to go put my tinfoil hat back on.
Don't bother. That is not a tinfoily thing to say. It's exactly what I would do if I were going to falsify the results. That is why I agree that the blockchain is a good direction for the future as well.
Oh and I know many people who use random.org and just stream the pick on ustream or justin tv.
Problem is, how would we know that the stream wasn't pre-recorded?
Also, how would we know that the person wasn't using a greasemonkey script to change the number on the random.org website?
I'm going to go put my tinfoil hat back on.
hero member
Activity: 588
Merit: 500
Hero VIP ultra official trusted super staff puppet
UPDATE: I updated the spreadsheet to reflect the modified referral-finder code.
Note that only the referrals were having an issue. All other data is still already verified.
The updated total referrals count went from 30 to 44, so that means that my error was cheating people on the lower half of the spreadsheet out of 14 referrals.
Since I feel awful about this, I am going to give 100 free tickets to everyone*
(*This is a joke considering it wouldn't change your odds at all.)
Note that only the referrals were having an issue. All other data is still already verified.
The updated total referrals count went from 30 to 44, so that means that my error was cheating people on the lower half of the spreadsheet out of 14 referrals.
Since I feel awful about this, I am going to give 100 free tickets to everyone*
(*This is a joke considering it wouldn't change your odds at all.)
3 blocks left......
Your call Matt. I only have 2 tickets so I don't really care. It would be useful excercise in using the block chain to ensure no ability to cheat. Random.Org is only random if you actually make it random not pick a buddy as the winner. Not saying you would but using the blockchain as a double blind picking method reduces the need for implicit trust.
Not saying you would but using the blockchain as a double blind picking method reduces the need for implicit trust.I totally agree. I want to learn this, but it still doesn't make sense to me completely, and that bothers me since I'm usually a fast mover on things. When the block comes around can you show me hands on what has to happen again?
Matt, the modulo (%) operator returns a remainder.
7 % 5 returns 2
So (hash) modulo (ticket #) will return a a random ticket number.
The hash looks like a complicated jargon of words but that is because it is represented in a different number form (Humans use base10 since we have 10 fingers, Computers use base 2 since switches can be on or off, hexadecimal is base16)
The last part of the hexadecimal hash can be converted into a decimal number (base 10), and the modulo operator can be used to choose the winner.
Since the hash is random and unpredictable, this will be the best way to choose a winner that can be independently verified.
The reverse bias has an extremely low chance of happening, and we can either accept it, or use the next block. Your call.
I favor this method a lot more since it can be verified by anyone. It is worth the wait
Now what some people were worried about was this.
*If the hash decimal equivalent is too large, then the last repeating remainder would not include all the tickets. This would give earlier tickets just the slightest advantage. This phenomenon happens since the max ticket number does not divide into the hash evenly. The chances of this are extremely low, and the bias can even be ignored.
I can explain this more if you would like. But it has been covered already by other posters.
Just post here if you want me to re sum everything up in a single place. Its not really complicated at all.
Jump to: