I really would like to know why these chips exist but we didnt get them. Was there a big buyer that wanted chips fast and got our chips so we have to wait now? I really would like to read an explaination.
I dont know how Yifu could make this good again. I mean when its a miner he could say, ok, one month waiting means 75% higher difficulty, i give you 75% refund. But this cant work for chips since the chips are only half of the cost of a miner. Even when yifu would refund all bitcoins for the chips it wouldnt work out to cover the loss.
I wonder if he offers a full refund and what my groupbuy members would say about this offer...
Moved Sebastian's questions from "Yifu's alive" thread here, so we can peacefully discuss them, especially the last (bolded) one.
Here are some facts:
- Avalon will (maybe) ship 200.000 chips in two weeks, 800.000 more later
- Unhappy Avalon team member photographed bunch of boxes with chips somewhere in Russia a month ago:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2694806Data embedded in the photos show that they were taken two weeks before their are published.
- Each big cardboard box contains 15.600 chips. There is evidence that 135 boxes are shipped in the same shipping batch:
http://www.track-shipments.com/track-trace.aspx?pref=AWB&awbno=87150508076It is not clear if all 135 boxes arrived to Russia or only 24 of them. Total number of chips in these 135 boxes is 2.106.000, and since Avalon doesn't have any chips to ship at this moment none of these chips are coming our way.
- Probable impact of all these chips on difficulty is enormous, when finally deployed they may bring difficulty to the orbit:
http://thegenesisblock.com/latest-shipment-of-avalon-asics-could-increase-network-hashrate-by-500/Nobody can put this mess in the formula and calculate what the real impact on *our* chips will be. If Yifu keeps his promise and delivers some chips in two weeks, those chips will be profitable. Maybe some more chips from other 800.000 promised will also be profitable, best calculations we've read says that all chips delivered in August and assembled in first half of September will be OK, depending ofc if they will be assembled by Burnin or some cheaper assembler, since price difference of that services comes into play now that profitability is reduced.
Also, since obviously all Sebastian batches will not come in the same time, position in witch batch determines whats the best interest of the group buyer.
Going back to Sebastian's original question: If by some miracle Yifu offers the full refund, what will be the vote to accept it or not? Will it be determined by voting within the each group buy? It's hard to give up after all this waiting, but it is also irrational to invest some BTC in the device knowing you'll never get at least the exact same amount of BTC back, not to mention some profit.