Topic: [Guide] Surviving the fork, or How to double your bitcoins (or save fiat) - page 4. (Read 9931 times)

This was my first thought after reading the reply above and this thread completely. If all this s**t will be possible, Bitcoin deserves to die and to be priced in single digits and to stay there, once and for all!

Isnt NMC mergemined with BTC since they both use SHA256?
isnt NMC a different chain than BTC?

Mergemining is to just use the same calcs you use as you are randomly searching for the winning hash against multiple chains. The extra overhead of adding another chain is much less than double, so you basically get to mint extra coins for very little extra work.

Based on this, the whole XT controversy could well be something FULLY backed by the miners
Follow the money

Due to the inertia of markets, this creates non-attack methods of double spending that isnt really double spending because we are all knowing that there will be two flavors of bitcoin. so by following the protocol, we can split our bitcoins. by knowing that markets dont do discontinuities, we can protect against the massive drop in BTC price this whole inventory explosion will create.

Do you really believe that the BTC whales wont take the time to split their dualcoins? And then they wont bother to make a ton of money by trading both coins?

James

Banks stayed in stone age for hundreds of years and that's the reason they become the master slaveholder. Value is all about stability and integrity

That does not work when you are trying to revolutionize sectors ... we do not want to stay in the stone ages

The old wisdom is don't fix it if it ain't broken. I guest majority of the miners will take a wait and see stance. Recent stress test already showed that even every block is receiving more than 1MB of data, the network still works well

Lets be sensible here ... if larger blocks starts to get more traction and lets be fair we already have 65%+ mining power voting for larger blocks (notice how I said larger blocks and not necessarily XT) then *business* like exchanges will prepare themselves to be on the right side of the chain (be it XT or whatever it is that supports larger blocks)

The interesting thing here which everyone seems to miss is that XT has started a process which the none-XT/larger block pro developers need to respond to with a solution. Miners and Exchanges (who seems largely in the larger blocks group) are not going to wait around forever.

Grab your popcorn and lets see how this all unfolds ... It is going to be interesting for sure.

I think they can not mergemine since they are mining on different chain by that time

The coins are doubled, however the ecosystem can not double over night, if suddenly the money supply increased by 100% but there is no increased demand, we will get a zimbabwe coin

I don't think, there is an economical incentive to keep on the weaker chain. I think, it will be settled by businesses, who want to make a revenue and they just take too much risk, when they stay on the weaker chain.
I don't think, it will be settled by ideological incentives, once the split has already happened.
So, the only interesting question here is, IF the split happens.
(And I think, all this "doubling you Bitcoin"-business is just a wet dream)

From a value point of view, since a fork into two chains break the promise of limited money supply, it essentially killed bitcoin. I guess long before XT hashing power reaching 50%, the bitcoin value would already be single digits

How hard is it to mergemine?
I dont think miners will have to choose.

How hard is it to choose not to go bankrupt? I dont think many businesses will drop one coin over the other, they will just pretend they are both normal bitcoins. we will just have some growing percentage of bitcoins that are split and thus dramatically increasing the coin supply. not overnight, but over a period of 6 months, we will probably get to where the majority of dualcoins are split, just via normal transactions tainting the dualcoins into two.

The people that understand this will be making a ton of money. the people that dont will be complaining about why bitcoin price keeps dropping

James

well you wont be able to directly double your bitcoins, but you can split all your bitcoins into winnercoins and losercoins. By trading them close to zerohour, you should be able to get roughly the same amount for each. Good traders will be able to sell winnercoin for more than losercoin and losercoin for more than winner coin by taking advantage of the market chaos.

Now your single dualcoin is split into winnercoin and losercoin due to the fact that there are XT outputs that will invalidated a tx in the eyes of corecoin.

The problem here is that we will end up with miners mergemining both (unlike normal merge mining where they are getting some sillycoin, they get losercoin) and there will be double the volume of sales so the price of both will be hammered.

I would recommend to split your bitcoins into winnercoin and losercoin as soon as possible after zerohour, sell them (via limit orders) into something that will hold its value. then when one side reaches more than 50% value of the other in a stable way (ie not a spike) to purchase them. if you have the time, just make a ladder so that as one side gets worth more and more against the other you are shifting more and more capital into it.

Done right you should end up with 50%+ more of winnercoin vs the number of dualcoins you have

James

Very well said, I think we should hold a poll for these 4 options to increase people's understanding of the fork and its consequence

In fact that means the amount of coin doubles, which broke the promise of limited money supply - the biggest advantage of bitcoin. People will understand that when core devs have a conflict of interest, there will be 100% inflation in bitcoin monetary system... And people will start to drop the game. I guess miners would try their best to avoid that extinction level events by sticking to one side, which is what they are currently running. It does not matter how advanced XT is, a fork will kill bitcoin, so that is to be avoided at all costs

Does bitcoin (both flavors) accept a transaction if it is invalid?
If a transaction has an unknown input, is it valid?
If that unknown input is actually a known input to one of the flavors, then we have a case where a transaction is valid on one chain and invalid on the other. Meaning you can use it on one chain, but not the other. It also means that on the chain it was rejected, the coin is still valid.

There is no magic, nothing other than the fact that there will be inputs that XT accepts and corecoin rejects and approx equal value to both.

See. You taint your dualcoin and now you have corecoin and XTcoin. The market is paying about the same for both, so just sell both, wait for the market to decide, ie winnercoin is 50% more than losercoin (that seems a safe enough threshold), then buy back at a 50% premium. Still you are ahead by a lot

James

So I see the thread growing, so I would like to ask for a summary please. What have we concluded so far? Will it be, or will it not be possible to double your bitcoins if the fork happens and we end up with 2 chains?

No, if you withdraw mined coins you will get coins from other (pre-fork) blocks.

Interesting..

Yes and No.  That does indeed fill in a very large part of the info gap I was unclear about.  But I am not sure that I trust the premise yet that the possibility that the coins can co-exist in both dimensions.  It seems to me that as soon as you spend a prefork bitcoin in a post fork world, it automatically vaporizes it's alter ego.   I understand that OP is theorizing about a way to allow a bitcoin to both exist and operate in both forks simultaneously - but I surely haven't seen enough other opinions to know whether this is simply science fiction fantasy, or real technological science.

It is indeed an interesting concept IF true.

Then excuse me, maybe I did not understood your post. Maybe you meant coins existing on a certain address on only one blockchain/a transaction only mined on one chain? Either way, one blockchain will be dropped... But anyways, my opinion is just that, my opinion, not based on facts. Just an hypothesis, like your first post. Unfortunately crystal balls don't work, at least yet

Some of your comments lead me to believe that you don't really understand what the OP is talking about.

It's simple. If you have bitcoins now (pre-fork), and a fork occurs, and there is a market for XTcoins and bitcoins post-fork, you will have XTcoins AND traditional bitcoins equal to the amount of pre-fork coins you had.

Let's say you own 1 bitcoin now (pre-fork).

A fork occurs. There is demand for coins (and mining occurring) on both chains. So, we have two surviving block chains (for whatever period of time).

You will then have 1 XTcoin and 1 traditional bitcoin.

You can then taint one of your coins with coins which only exist on one of the forks. Let's say you get a few satoshis from block reward which occurred in a XT 8mb block (thus is not valid and does not exist on the 1mb chain). You can combine those satoshis with your 1 XTcoin by sending them to a new address under your control. This means your XTcoins can be safely moved separately from your traditional bitcoins.

If you don't taint your coins first, any transaction you make will be valid on both chains, so if you send your coins to an address which is not under your control, the holder of the private keys for that address will be able to get both your XTcoins and traditional bitcoins.

There is no risk for you, until you make the decision to taint your coins on one chain, and then exchange them for something of value. You will hold coins on BOTH chains until you take these actions. Even the tainting itself does not incur any risk for you. It simply allows you to craft transactions on each chain which is no longer valid on the other chain.

You can then decide to:

a. sell only your XTcoins
b. sell only your traditional bitcoins
c. sell both of them
d. sell none of them

Should there be demand for both kinds of coins (and it's looking like there will be), then the risk comes when you make the choice to economically back one side. You may sell all your XTcoins and traditional bitcoins become worth far more, or you may decide to sell all your traditional bitcoins and XTcoins become worth far more. Perhaps the community is divided enough that both chains will continue to exist far into the future and they will reach valuations based on the demand for either coin. Perhaps the split will cause a loss of trust in Bitcoin entirely and neither fork will hold their value. No one knows.

If the fork occurs when there are 15 million coins, there will be 15 million XTcoins and 15 million traditional bitcoins.

In order for you to control both of your coins, you need to first be the sole controller of your private keys when the fork occurs.

I hope this clears things up for you.