[Guide] Surviving the fork, or How to double your bitcoins (or save fiat) - page 6.

mrkubanftw

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Quote from: pedrog on August 20, 2015, 05:21:23 AM

It won't work.

If XT is adopted, XT wins, there's no other chain, or at least there's no other chain with value.

You may find someone that lived in a cave for the past year and scam them using the abandoned chain, but that's not something you'll want to brag about, I think...

Honestly. I dont mean to turn this into a debate. But why wouldn't XT win? I read our volumes are only 30-40% of block size now.. but there is a real risk of hitting a limit if bitcoin continues to be adopted, which it will. I see no reason why XT wouldn't win. Though I am certainly disappointed at the dev's of both sides. Bitcoin has always been an amazing concept with the overshadow of greed and shady business. I wish it were not so.

keepdoing

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Assuming I have Bitcoin in Circle and Coinbase (which are basically the big fiat replacement exchanges) and assuming they will adopt XT the second it is clear the move is going to be made (And they will because I have talked to both companies in depth and they fully support XT) - wouldn't it be safest and easiest to just leave my bitcoins in their respective Coinbase and Circle accounts?

And this is assuming a succesful XT fork where you assume XT "wins". Is there any potential risk anyone see's in this scenario / strategy of just leaving your coins in the exchange wallets?

Come-from-Beyond

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Quote from: pedrog on August 20, 2015, 09:59:48 AM

Aren't those proponents also invested in bitcoin, why would they want to fuck up the network?

Maybe ask them directly? http://qntra.net/2015/01/the-hard-fork-missile-crisis/

pedrog

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Quote from: Come-from-Beyond on August 20, 2015, 09:56:52 AM

Quote from: pedrog on August 20, 2015, 09:49:05 AM

There's no economic incentive to do that, if you have invested a shitload of money in mining would you risk to fuck up the network? and for what?

Amateur hour is over.

Both the sides have wealthy proponents who can bribe pool operators. And the operators will accept this money if they are rational.

Aren't those proponents also invested in bitcoin, why would they want to fuck up the network?

Come-from-Beyond

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Quote from: pedrog on August 20, 2015, 09:49:05 AM

There's no economic incentive to do that, if you have invested a shitload of money in mining would you risk to fuck up the network? and for what?

Amateur hour is over.

Both the sides have wealthy proponents who can bribe pool operators. And the operators will accept this money if they are rational.

Come-from-Beyond

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Quote from: Tobo on August 20, 2015, 09:42:37 AM

CfB, by the way, what is your stand on this issue, pro XT or against XT?

I think a smoother growth of the limit is better. None of the alternatives looks good to me.

pedrog

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Quote from: Come-from-Beyond on August 20, 2015, 09:44:13 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on August 20, 2015, 09:14:31 AM

Not necessarily. Once the 8MB version gets 75% miner approval, the other 25% must promptly switch to it, from self-interest.

We don't know if these 75% will be real approvals.

There's no economic incentive to do that, if you have invested a shitload of money in mining would you risk to fuck up the network? and for what?

Amateur hour is over.

Come-from-Beyond

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Quote from: JorgeStolfi on August 20, 2015, 09:14:31 AM

Not necessarily. Once the 8MB version gets 75% miner approval, the other 25% must promptly switch to it, from self-interest.

We don't know if these 75% will be real approvals.

Tobo

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Quote from: Come-from-Beyond on August 20, 2015, 05:23:30 AM

Quote from: pedrog on August 20, 2015, 05:21:23 AM

If XT is adopted, XT wins, there's no other chain, or at least there's no other chain with value.

This is very arguable, but I won't argue, let's stick to the topic without derailing it.

CfB, by the way, what is your stand on this issue, pro XT or against XT?

JorgeStolfi

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Quote from: Come-from-Beyond on August 20, 2015, 05:07:01 AM

2. the price will likely go down and down and down,

Not necessarily. Once the 8MB version gets 75% miner approval, the other 25% must promptly switch to it, from self-interest. Then hopefully no one will pay attention to the Blockstream FUD anymore.

Quote

3. After the fork find someone who owns coins not existing on the both blockchains and ask them to send few satoshis to your account, do it for the both blockchains. Those lucky owners of coins that don't exist on the other blockchain will likely be miners or guys who managed to get their transaction not included into the other chain.

As per above, it will be very difficult to find such miners. If and when the chain actually splits, every miner who cares about his money will be on the 8MB branch.

Quote

I expect that the market will react to the fork by selling such special coins slightly more expensive than their face value.

Since those coins will exist on a chain that will be issuing only 1 block every 2 days, "slightly more than its market value" may be zero plus 10%.

Not worth pointing out the problems with the other steps...

harrymmmm

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Quote from: Come-from-Beyond on August 20, 2015, 08:30:19 AM

Quote from: jstnrgrs on August 20, 2015, 07:48:39 AM

I believe that 1 BTC-prefork = 1 BTC-core + 1 BTC-XT.

Not on a panic-driven market.

Yep. There will be chaos.
It's possible if both chains survive that it's a zero sum price game at equilibrium, but even then I wouldn't expect the panic factor to fade away too quickly and the price(s) to return to pre-fork levels in sum.

Snail2

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Quote from: pedrog on August 20, 2015, 08:04:43 AM

This is a plausible scenario, I think the risk for the business is to great for someone to try this, for the business and for the user, in this situation pretty sure someone will try to scam people.

I guess many users will try this, but I wouldn't be surprised if some shitty exchanges would also try to make some extra profit from this opportunity.

There is an other scenario for "afterfork" scamming. I think if the "old" chain losing, and gets abandoned by most miners then it will be relative easy to take over and then this "privat chain" can be turned to a scammer hideout for selling freshly minted worthless coins to noobs.

desired_username

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Quote from: BillyBobZorton on August 20, 2015, 08:30:48 AM

I think if XT is near 70% (and I hope it never happens) people would already stop accepting core altogether. It's designed in a way were you can't double your money, unfortunately. And again, I hope XT remains a small thing and eventually dies out. I want a bigger blocksize but NOT with the extras that Mike and Hearn are trying to pass over there.

What extras do you not like?

They can be disabled, or you can go with a branch of XT which only contains BIP101.

Come-from-Beyond

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Quote from: BillyBobZorton on August 20, 2015, 08:30:48 AM

I think if XT is near 70% (and I hope it never happens) people would already stop accepting core altogether.

Wrong. Because of https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/not-bitcoin-xt-1154520.

Come-from-Beyond

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Quote from: unamis76 on August 20, 2015, 08:24:19 AM

If that person does not own coins on any existing blockchain, he can't send any coins...

Right, but it's not our case.

desired_username

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Quote from: ajas on August 20, 2015, 08:05:41 AM

Quote from: desired_username on August 20, 2015, 07:41:23 AM

The blocksize increase is not even the real issue here.

Blockstream have grown to completely dominate bitcoin development. It is unacceptable considering that bitcoin is a decentralized system.

Boiling it down we have 2 choice:

XT = freedom

Core/Blockstream = slavery

When I got into bitcoin, I subscribed to transparency, independence and freedom, not the tyrannical rule of a select few.

I fully agree that blocksize increase is not the real issue.
It is just a false pretence to take bitcoin-core out of the hands of the current developers.

I just do not agree with your rating: XT = freedom, Core/Blockstream = slavery
The world is not black and white.

The question is: are we all going to risk a breakdown of bitcoin because the developers do not get along with
each other.

Please consider what is bitcoin XT and the BIP101 proposition again, there is basically no risk of a "breakdown".

BillyBobZorton

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I think if XT is near 70% (and I hope it never happens) people would already stop accepting core altogether. It's designed in a way were you can't double your money, unfortunately. And again, I hope XT remains a small thing and eventually dies out. I want a bigger blocksize but NOT with the extras that Mike and Hearn are trying to pass over there.

Come-from-Beyond

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Quote from: jstnrgrs on August 20, 2015, 07:48:39 AM

I believe that 1 BTC-prefork = 1 BTC-core + 1 BTC-XT.

Not on a panic-driven market.

Come-from-Beyond

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Quote from: desired_username on August 20, 2015, 07:42:37 AM

The way BIP101 works prohibits a split of the blockchain.

I have to disagree. Read https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/not-bitcoin-xt-1154520, please.

unamis76

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I'm not getting this thread... There will be no "coin doubling". This has already been discussed on this sub-forum.

Quote from: Come-from-Beyond on August 20, 2015, 05:07:01 AM

3. After the fork find someone who owns coins not existing on the both blockchains and ask them to send few satoshis to your account, do it for the both blockchains. Those lucky owners of coins that don't exist on the other blockchain will likely be miners or guys who managed to get their transaction not included into the other chain. I expect that the market will react to the fork by selling such special coins slightly more expensive than their face value.

One can't ask someone to do such a thing. If that person does not own coins on any existing blockchain, he can't send any coins... Because he doesn't have them. If I don't own 1 BTC I can't send anyone 1 BTC, like if I don't own 1 USD/EUR/CNY/whatever, I can't send them this money I do not have. if this was even possible, nobody guarantees there would be someone mining a transaction on the "losing" chain. There will be no special coins... 1 BTC = 1 BTC.

If coins are "not existing on both blockchains", then they don't exist.

There will be no business for the "losing" fork. If one has vested interest and is far deep within Bitcoin he will follow the "winning" chain (whether he likes XT or Core), under the risk of losing everything he has on a fork that will not succeed.

Topic: [Guide] Surviving the fork, or How to double your bitcoins (or save fiat) - page 6. (Read 9931 times)