2. After the halvening, Bitcoin base money supply will continue to grow ("inflate"), just at a slower rate; will only be ~5%, instead of the ~10% we're seeing now.
4%, whore of babylon
Topic: Halving guide for noobs: Why it's not possible for halving to be priced in now - page 2. (Read 16922 times)
May 14, 2016, 09:55:57 AM
4%, whore of babylon
May 14, 2016, 07:43:31 AM
Basically in a halving situation, the economy is in a deflationary scenario.
In all deflationary scenarios the price of goods fall, in this case bitcoin will gain value, against fiat currencies.
In all deflationary scenarios the price of goods fall, in this case bitcoin will gain value, against fiat currencies.
1. "In a halving situation, the economy is" NOT "in a deflationary scenario." Decreasing base money supply and "economy [experiencing] a deflationary scenario" are two totally different things.
2. After the halvening, Bitcoin base money supply will continue to grow ("inflate"), just at a slower rate; will only be ~5%, instead of the ~10% we're seeing now.
May 14, 2016, 05:41:43 AM
Coinbase $458. RIP to all anti-halvites and halving bubble deniers. It's coming.
Are you claiming that the recent rise in price is related to the coming halving?
Previously you were saying that it is not possible for the increase due to the halving to happen before the halving, but now you seem to be saying the opposite?
Are you saying that the halving is somewhat priced in now?
You're confusing me.
No, I just said it's coming.
May 14, 2016, 01:38:37 AM
Coinbase $458. RIP to all anti-halvites and halving bubble deniers. It's coming.
Are you claiming that the recent rise in price is related to the coming halving?
Previously you were saying that it is not possible for the increase due to the halving to happen before the halving, but now you seem to be saying the opposite?
Are you saying that the halving is somewhat priced in now?
You're confusing me.
No time to explain, just get in.
Bubble deniers? U foolish.
~Lucky Strike Halvening Posse~
May 14, 2016, 01:33:04 AM
Coinbase $458. RIP to all anti-halvites and halving bubble deniers. It's coming.
Are you claiming that the recent rise in price is related to the coming halving?
Previously you were saying that it is not possible for the increase due to the halving to happen before the halving, but now you seem to be saying the opposite?
Are you saying that the halving is somewhat priced in now?
You're confusing me.
May 13, 2016, 08:05:08 PM
Coinbase $458. RIP to all anti-halvites and halving bubble deniers. It's coming.
itshappening.gif
May 13, 2016, 06:32:27 PM
Basically in a halving situation, the economy is in a deflationary scenario.
This is only true if velocity remains static. If velocity drops as coin supply does, it can be inflationary. Velocity could drop due to hoarding. The question becomes "which is greater, the utility of the coins versus the speculative volume?" I don't have a good answer for that yet.
The miners will be trying to make up for their losses - the most logical thing to do is not to sell the coins for a profit, but to hoard them for later sale when the price goes up again. This limits the supply of BTC available, perhaps for a few months until the price adjusts. But there is always going to the same demand for BTC. When demand outweighs supply, the price will naturally go up.
Demand for BTC could and likely will change radically based governmental interventions, possible hard forks, and further predictable scams and security breaches at exchanges. You don't think somebody is trying to devise a way to seize bitcoins right now?
May 13, 2016, 01:20:24 PM
Coinbase $458. RIP to all anti-halvites and halving bubble deniers. It's coming.
May 11, 2016, 11:54:19 PM
Basically in a halving situation, the economy is in a deflationary scenario.
In all deflationary scenarios the price of goods fall, in this case bitcoin will gain value, against fiat currencies.
The miners will be trying to make up for their losses - the most logical thing to do is not to sell the coins for a profit, but to hoard them for later sale when the price goes up again. This limits the supply of BTC available, perhaps for a few months until the price adjusts. But there is always going to the same demand for BTC. When demand outweighs supply, the price will naturally go up.
In all deflationary scenarios the price of goods fall, in this case bitcoin will gain value, against fiat currencies.
The miners will be trying to make up for their losses - the most logical thing to do is not to sell the coins for a profit, but to hoard them for later sale when the price goes up again. This limits the supply of BTC available, perhaps for a few months until the price adjusts. But there is always going to the same demand for BTC. When demand outweighs supply, the price will naturally go up.
The only post I've ever seen from a sig ad poster that wasn't just spam.
May 11, 2016, 01:32:55 AM
Basically in a halving situation, the economy is in a deflationary scenario.
In all deflationary scenarios the price of goods fall, in this case bitcoin will gain value, against fiat currencies.
The miners will be trying to make up for their losses - the most logical thing to do is not to sell the coins for a profit, but to hoard them for later sale when the price goes up again. This limits the supply of BTC available, perhaps for a few months until the price adjusts. But there is always going to the same demand for BTC. When demand outweighs supply, the price will naturally go up.
In all deflationary scenarios the price of goods fall, in this case bitcoin will gain value, against fiat currencies.
The miners will be trying to make up for their losses - the most logical thing to do is not to sell the coins for a profit, but to hoard them for later sale when the price goes up again. This limits the supply of BTC available, perhaps for a few months until the price adjusts. But there is always going to the same demand for BTC. When demand outweighs supply, the price will naturally go up.
May 11, 2016, 01:29:50 AM
I'm just waiting for China to stop trying to block the rise on purpose. It's clear the west has led in the rise while China has repeatedly attempted to stop it over and over. Once they give up trying to manipulate downwards, it's going to fly up. Eventually their tactical market sells and big walls like in the picture below are going to be reversed to try and raise price instead. These dipshits are really trying hard to stop it from going over $450 or 3000 yuan:
May 09, 2016, 07:47:20 PM
I hope the price going up so fast isn't scaring you Dooglus.
I refer you to my previous answer, which you may not have noticed (since you didn't reply to it):
How is your bear position on the halving going Dooglus...
I am long Bitcoin, not short. I have no bear position. Did you think I said I did?
I think your statement that "it's not possible for halving to be priced in now" is incorrect, and asked whether you have any arguments to back it up.
I'm sorry if you misinterpreted that as me saying I have a "bear position", but if you go back and re-read what I said maybe you'll understand my position more clearly.
I am happy that the price is going up, of course. But I'm not short sighted enough to believe that it won't go down again too. I've been in this game long enough that the ups and downs don't bother me any more. I'm in it for the long haul.
May 09, 2016, 12:43:47 PM
I hope the price going up so fast isn't scaring you Dooglus.
May 07, 2016, 10:02:13 AM
Another day, 50 more kwuckduck spam posts on front page.
May 07, 2016, 02:19:28 AM
Exactly, and people need to be aware of this.
May 07, 2016, 01:54:40 AM
How is your bear position on the halving going Dooglus...
I am long Bitcoin, not short. I have no bear position. Did you think I said I did?
I think your statement that "it's not possible for halving to be priced in now" is incorrect, and asked whether you have any arguments to back it up.
I'm sorry if you misinterpreted that as me saying I have a "bear position", but if you go back and re-read what I said maybe you'll understand my position more clearly.
May 07, 2016, 12:49:49 AM
I wonder.. what will be the next unicorn for bitcoiners after the halving...
There have always been some fantastic excuse on why should people buy bitcoin. You have to buy bitcoin because Wall Street is waiting to pour in billions...you have to buy because after ETF, Wall Street will pour in billions.... you have to buy because the Gemini exchange will soon open and then Wall Street will pour in billions... you have to buy because of the halving will make everyone pour in billions. We have heard it all.
Any theories on what will be the next main sales pitch to attract new greater fools?
There have always been some fantastic excuse on why should people buy bitcoin. You have to buy bitcoin because Wall Street is waiting to pour in billions...you have to buy because after ETF, Wall Street will pour in billions.... you have to buy because the Gemini exchange will soon open and then Wall Street will pour in billions... you have to buy because of the halving will make everyone pour in billions. We have heard it all.
Any theories on what will be the next main sales pitch to attract new greater fools?
OK, I don't necessarily disagree with any of that. It's been many years since I mined, and a lot has changed, but I recognize mining-at-a-loss. But like many other experts keep on saying, I too believe halving will come to effect at any time sooner but mainly based on how many new people are coming into bitcoin system.
May 06, 2016, 06:37:13 PM
How is your bear position on the halving going Dooglus...
May 03, 2016, 01:08:05 AM
Miners are acutely aware of the halving and likely are taking steps to deal with it. They are calculating whether or not they can take a 50% pay cut in 2 months. I don't believe there are any mitigating factors to that, other than the USD price pushing significantly higher. I can't imagine a miner who would want the price of bitcoin to go down? So 99.99% of miners want the price to stay high, and there is no regulation of the exchanges (not saying there should be). Therefore someone can buy their own coins (or a buddy's) OVER AND OVER at a progressively higher price. Why wouldn't at least SOMEONE be doing this?
I think that we have had this conversation before and there is no reason to repeat it.
You suggest that miners have an incentive to keep prices high and therefore they are buying their own coins. I believe that it does not make sense for them to buy their own coins, and you do, so we differ in our opinions, but nonetheless, you keep pushing this theory, incorporating it into your discussion points as a simplified explanation as if it is some kind of meaningful explanation for what's really going on. I'll repeat that it just doesn't make sense to me, but we do not need to go on about it because you have made your points and I have made mine.
Funny, I don't recall posting in this thread to "have a conversation" with you, sir. I was posting some thoughts on this thread's topic, and you pasted in a tangetial reply of yours from another thread where I mentioned the possibility of miners buying their own coins, and you stated that this "didn't make sense to you". I'm not here to convince you of anything, but generally I advocate for critical thought and fact-gathering rather than simply acting on hunches...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_lady_doth_protest_too_much,_methinks
Back on topic, I believe that other events are moving the bitcoin price more than the coming halving... This Craig Wright business is interesting, as is the collapse of the Classic attack vector, and the downfall of Gav-boy...
May 02, 2016, 07:40:22 AM
I'm not saying I agree with him necessarily, but I do feel like he has some points. I think technical analysis is horsecrap, but this makes sense:
Quote
After June the mining industry will receive half the bitcoin protocol subsidy it receives today. The Bitcoin protocol is transforming into a fee subsidized network (as opposed to block reward subsidized). Some miners will have to close shop, the rest will make up the shortfall via increased fees. Many will try their best to survive. Living and conducting business in a fiat-based global economy as we do, when cashflow pinches (during a double-whammy global slowdown and reward halving), does one buy more bitcoin or do you cash out bitcoin for the sake of fiat denominated running costs?
Price will need to double to keep miners' profit level. They're already pumping the price, so how much higher can they pump? Basically miners are going to take a hit. Also I agree that a global slowdown is imminent after the US election. This won't necessarily be good for bitcoin, unless there is high inflation. Given that the central banks have inflated for 8 years straight, inflation may not continue.
Your logic, like the article, seems to attempt to over generalize the behavior of miners, here, and also seems to get wrong their behaviors based on long and short term incentives. I think that we have to zoom out a bit, and try not to be so macro-predictive in our analysis.
There is no real actual evidence that miners are responsible for pumping the bitcoin price up, even though they are likely self-interested, and bitcoin naysayers like to spread around some of these kinds of simplified logic scenarios, such as miners are selling to themselves to pump up the price. Makes little sense in terms of explaining overall price performance and various networking effects of bitcoin that continue to expand.
Miners are acutely aware of the halving and likely are taking steps to deal with it. They are calculating whether or not they can take a 50% pay cut in 2 months. I don't believe there are any mitigating factors to that, other than the USD price pushing significantly higher. I can't imagine a miner who would want the price of bitcoin to go down? So 99.99% of miners want the price to stay high, and there is no regulation of the exchanges (not saying there should be). Therefore someone can buy their own coins (or a buddy's) OVER AND OVER at a progressively higher price. Why wouldn't at least SOMEONE be doing this?
I think that we have had this conversation before and there is no reason to repeat it.
You suggest that miners have an incentive to keep prices high and therefore they are buying their own coins. I believe that it does not make sense for them to buy their own coins, and you do, so we differ in our opinions, but nonetheless, you keep pushing this theory, incorporating it into your discussion points as a simplified explanation as if it is some kind of meaningful explanation for what's really going on. I'll repeat that it just doesn't make sense to me, but we do not need to go on about it because you have made your points and I have made mine.
Jump to: