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Topic: Halving, who's closest with actual Nrs TAKE A CHANCE on the LIST !!! - page 9. (Read 10140 times)

legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 11105
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
Names are shifting....

Small question to participants, those with lower guesses if the game would start from today, would you still pick same prices or would a few days as we have had change your minds??

Just to know? Or is the last days of non-importance??

I wouldn't. Let's face it, I am usually very wrong, which is (part of) why I went low.

If I go high, it goes low - I want it high, so I GO LOW.

Hope it works Wink

Psychology (or reverse psychology) NO doesn't work on king daddy.   Tongue Tongue

Soooo who the F*** are you to tell us what works or what doesn't work!!!  Kiss

Thanks for asking.

I am a wannabe couch potato reverse psychology expert, with particular credentials and specialitizations in king daddy. 

This happens to be your lucky day because you would have never know, had you not asked.   Wink
legendary
Activity: 2674
Merit: 13168
BTC + Crossfit, living life.
Names are shifting....

Small question to participants, those with lower guesses if the game would start from today, would you still pick same prices or would a few days as we have had change your minds??

Just to know? Or is the last days of non-importance??

I wouldn't. Let's face it, I am usually very wrong, which is (part of) why I went low.

If I go high, it goes low - I want it high, so I GO LOW.

Hope it works Wink

Psychology (or reverse psychology) NO doesn't work on king daddy.   Tongue Tongue

Soooo who the F*** are you to tell us what works or what doesn't work!!!  Kiss
legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 11105
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
Names are shifting....

Small question to participants, those with lower guesses if the game would start from today, would you still pick same prices or would a few days as we have had change your minds??

Just to know? Or is the last days of non-importance??

I wouldn't. Let's face it, I am usually very wrong, which is (part of) why I went low.

If I go high, it goes low - I want it high, so I GO LOW.

Hope it works Wink

Psychology (or reverse psychology) NO doesn't work on king daddy.   Tongue Tongue
legendary
Activity: 2674
Merit: 13168
BTC + Crossfit, living life.
Deleted again, bitcoin discussion?

Can the mods just get lost please.

I think there is one working on meds or something............
legendary
Activity: 2702
Merit: 2053
Free spirit
Deleted again, bitcoin discussion?

Can the mods just get lost please.
legendary
Activity: 2590
Merit: 1643
Names are shifting....

Small question to participants, those with lower guesses if the game would start from today, would you still pick same prices or would a few days as we have had change your minds??

Just to know? Or is the last days of non-importance??

I wouldn't. Let's face it, I am usually very wrong, which is (part of) why I went low.

If I go high, it goes low - I want it high, so I GO LOW.

Hope it works Wink
legendary
Activity: 2590
Merit: 1643
I just think the sound of El duderino and exit scam in a same sentence is sounding like Kanye west for president.....

Except that Kanye West for president is (albeit microscopically) plausible.  The Dude exit scamming has a probability of ZERO.
legendary
Activity: 1045
Merit: 1157
no degradation
Small question to participants, those with lower guesses if the game would start from today, would you still pick same prices or would a few days as we have had change your minds??
Not at all, as the data for my "TA" did not change at all. Wink

But seriously, who can predict how the honey badger will behave? 6k, 9k or 18k in a few weeks, who cares? Our stake will not change much until then, I guess. Smiley
legendary
Activity: 2242
Merit: 3523
Flippin' burgers since 1163.
Names are shifting....

Small question to participants, those with lower guesses if the game would start from today, would you still pick same prices or would a few days as we have had change your minds??

Just to know? Or is the last days of non-importance??

Not a bear or trader, the opposite actually.

However the last few days of movement, up in this case, is of non importance. The next exchange hack, gox coins, Trump tweet or just an angry whale is always around the corner. We are still early I believe to even be sure we are out of the bear market.

Predicting the price on the 1st of April is like throwing darts blindfolded, IMHO. It is however telling that most of the ‘previous winners’ are in the <$8k zone. Bitcoin tends to do what is the least expected.
legendary
Activity: 2110
Merit: 1537
We choose to go to the moon
Quote
8701-8750          Phil_S *

I'm going to enjoy it while I still can...  Cool
legendary
Activity: 2674
Merit: 13168
BTC + Crossfit, living life.
Names are shifting....

Small question to participants, those with lower guesses if the game would start from today, would you still pick same prices or would a few days as we have had change your minds??

Just to know? Or is the last days of non-importance??
legendary
Activity: 2242
Merit: 3523
Flippin' burgers since 1163.
It's not really a big deal but I found a small problem with the ranges we've decided on.

 The very first set should be 1-50 (or 0-49 which would change all other picks too) otherwise whoever chooses that has one extra dollar in their range (0-50 is a $51 range) over everyone else.  On the other hand, if the price is $0 then I guess we all lose anyway...  Sad




at zero the prize is also zero



 Respectfully disagree.  At $0 the prize is still .125 Bitcoin and even if the network is down,  i believe El duderino would provide a paper wallet with those funds - probably already set aside.  I also imagine there will be many WO members collecting as many BTC as possible at that price point.



Brilliant, and with Homer on this one.

Makes me realize again the importance of low resource requirements to run a node. Even if large parts of the internet or offline, and I think in such case Bitcoin would be the least of anyone’s problem at this stage of its adoption, there will always be a few altruistic or incentivized people running a node and keeping the network going.

Once I settle down the first thing to play around with is a satellite dish.
legendary
Activity: 2702
Merit: 2053
Free spirit
legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 11105
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
[edited out]

Some of the best bitcoins were brought under 1k.

Of course, many of us into bitcoin, and who established a good quantity of our BTC stashes before April 2017, had purchased a good amount of our BTC for under $1k, and some BTC HODLers had either purchased all of their stash below $1k, or even the BTC that they bought above $1k after March 2017 would NOT have came even close to causing their average cost per BTC to go above $1k. 

My point is NOT so much about a lot of the acquisition of BTC below $1k or even the various strategies of the earlier adopters to accumulate BTC while keeping their costs below $1k per BTC, but just that to me (and likely several others who had been into BTC for a decent amount of time before April 2017 - hey I kind of even consider the BTC accumulators who came into BTC in mid 2015 or later to have been a bit spoiled, relatively speaking because their BTC had likely had a lot more UPwards movements in price rather than extended periods of down and even being in the negative) it would feel quite devastating to revisit those kinds of sub $1k price territories, and even revisiting the current lowest bottom of this particular cycle of $3,124, would be a bit of a downer... and you know if we go anywhere back below $4k the odds become pretty high, at that point, that there would be attempts to revisit that $3,124 bottom.

Cannot really know before-hand how I personally would react, even though I believe that it is prudent to continue to prepare for extreme scenarios, even the ones that seem to be within the low ends of probabilities.

Sure, there are a decent amount of folks who came into BTC after March 2017, so their costs are likely quite a bit higher than $1k, even though there might be some (probably rare) folks who have been able to engage in BTC accumulation strategies and tactics to bring their costs per BTC down to below $1k, the most likely of scenarios for those who came into BTC after March 2017 would be the prudent dollar cost averaging ones, even including buying around the time of the $19,666 top and continuing to dollar cost average and accumulate BTC, which still might end up bringing costs of per BTC into a $6k to $9k range, which would ONLY be slightly profitable currently, but still seeming (to me) like a great long-term investment, as long as the investment time horizon is at least 4 years, and if the person(s) are still accumulating BTC, currently, then having a longer time horizon for establishing a decent BTC stash/stake should allow for even greater likelihoods of appreciable profits that out perform other assets into the future.  A good tool to look at historical DCA performance of bitcoin compared with gold and the Dow Jones Industrial Index fund, can be done here, link courtesy of biodom......

I just think the sound of El duderino and exit scam in a same sentence is sounding like Kanye west for president.....

No actual human being (or even algorithm written by humans) is free from exit scamming, so I don't believe it is healthy to consider any one to be free from exit scamming - even if the odds are low and even it the starting premise a "gift" or a "give away" - even with a decently long reputation getting established, especially on the interwebs.. and even if some peeps have met you in real life or can figure out who you are.  Of course, long scams involve building confidence to be put into a position to be able to exit scam with larger amounts of money, and surely folks who have been put into positions of trust in the past would be more likely to be put into positions of trust into the future with larger amounts of money.  Anyone might be considered to NOT be engaging in a long scam, until it happens... then fuck.  Happens a lot in bitcoin, even though I am NOT specifically accusing you of such, no one is immuned from being considered in such light as being possible, under certain conditions.

Of course, you have demonstrated a historical track record for following through with your promised payments, and that is reflected in trust that several forum members have already left for you, and no one publicly accuses you of having had screwed them out of coins or anything like that, and the opposite has been claimed in terms of your paying for promises and debts, so yeah, you do not have any of those kinds of blemishes, as far as I know.

Yeah, it could be true that you personally are either incapable of an exit scam or that you are much more self-less than the average saint, but does not seem to be healthy to consider people as self-less and one of the presumptions of bitcoin hinges on people having ongoing incentives to act in their own interest.....

Funny thing about bitcoin does continue to be the combination of trust that still seems to be part of the ongoing space, even when we are getting down to fundamental design issues from satoshi in which there was a presumption that people were going to act in their own self-interest and even attack the bitcoin system up to a certain point (including satoshi anticipating a lot of snake oil salesmen, and surely those anticipations have played out in reality) - and some of those balances of trust and trustless continue to be ongoing in design issues in bitcoin, including whether it might be better to allow bitcoin's code to ossify rather than to improve...

I mean there is a certain kind of value that is placed on both the difficulties in changing bitcoin (which is a feature and not a bug in bitcoin, even though frequently criticized by bitcoin naysayers and alt coin pumpers) and even a kind of banking upon bitcoin will NOT change - so if any of us were to go into a 10-year coma, we should still be able to recover our coins as long as we could get access to our private keys upon coming out of our coma.... The same cannot be asserted regarding the vast majority of shitcoins including the stupid ass hardforking preferences which seems to cause real issues for anyone who might go into a 10 year coma and might not be able to retrieve his/her coins, and the shitcoins also have greater degrees of centralization and even folks who might not be counted upon - even if they might seem to be saints... and I suppose in bitcoin, there are built in mechanisms that strive to NOT allow any one person or group of people to have too much control in bitcoin, and to default to NOT changing if there is disagreement or if overwhelming consensus cannot be reached, even blockstream - while they have been frequently accused of having more control and influence over the direction of bitcoin and its software than they deserve to have, but those proclamations about the purported power of blockstream are frequently exaggerated since there still remains abilities for anyone to challenge and check code that have been proposed and adopted into bitcoin through them or any of their agents (principles, staff or employees). 

Surely, we have to be careful about granting too much authority or credibility to any person or group in bitcoin, and of course, more young people learning to code and getting involved in bitcoin is likely to help to keep eyes on the code and not allowed any bugs to be slipped in ..... not fool proof, but ongoing healthy skepticism... and ability to adapt to adverse behaviors of individuals that could happen, even with anyone (or team) Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy holding themselves out as a potential saint.   
legendary
Activity: 2674
Merit: 13168
BTC + Crossfit, living life.
I just think the sound of El duderino and exit scam in a same sentence is sounding like Kanye west for president.....
legendary
Activity: 2702
Merit: 2053
Free spirit
It's not really a big deal but I found a small problem with the ranges we've decided on.

 The very first set should be 1-50 (or 0-49 which would change all other picks too) otherwise whoever chooses that has one extra dollar in their range (0-50 is a $51 range) over everyone else.  On the other hand, if the price is $0 then I guess we all lose anyway...  Sad




at zero the prize is also zero



 Respectfully disagree.  At $0 the prize is still .125 Bitcoin and even if the network is down,  i believe El duderino would provide a paper wallet with those funds - probably already set aside.  I also imagine there will be many WO members collecting as many BTC as possible at that price point.



Oh yeah, buy em all and all that.

Anyway its just a nonsense discussion  Smiley

legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 11105
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
It's not really a big deal but I found a small problem with the ranges we've decided on.

 The very first set should be 1-50 (or 0-49 which would change all other picks too) otherwise whoever chooses that has one extra dollar in their range (0-50 is a $51 range) over everyone else.  On the other hand, if the price is $0 then I guess we all lose anyway...  Sad




at zero the prize is also zero



 Respectfully disagree.  At $0 the prize is still .125 Bitcoin and even if the network is down,  i believe El duderino would provide a paper wallet with those funds - probably already set aside.  I also imagine there will be many WO members collecting as many BTC as possible at that price point.

In other words, we are all fucked if we expect los dude to be saving a paper wallet for such going to zero purposes.

I would say that I don't expect los dude to exit scam for anything above $1k.. but jeez, even $1k would be pushing expectations for any of us BTC HODLers to be paying off promises.. we would all be a bit screwed in those kinds of circumstances.

 I would expect him to exit scam at the zero price, or even anything below $1 (I would not even blame him to exit scam for anything below $100..... fuck that shit.... I am NOT going to be very happy with anything below $1k.. but I expect los dude to pay... hahahahahahaha (double standard)..   

Below $1k would be outrageous, and I might even stop buying BTC at a certain point of down.. and below $1k could be one of those scenarios (depending on context), not sure about what point that would be the stop buying point as I type this emotional reaction.. to your ostentatious "cool, calm and collected."    I would NOT believe that I would be selling, but I might NOT buy at certain points.

I proclaim to be relatively unemotional about BTC investment and even willing to ride it to zero... but still, we have already been through very low triple digits in 2014, 2015, 2016.. (mostly 2015).. been there done that, and even $3ks in late 2018 early 2019 were no cake walk, even though I was somewhat emotionally / financially prepared to get close to $1k or even quickly dipping below.. within the momentum of that price move...   

However, seems that I have been a bit spoiled with the passage of more time, and maybe the Lindy effect is real in terms of how low any of us even consider to be feasibly within outrageous reason, and below certain prices just seems a bit of going too far in the speculation of realistic possibilities..

Hey.. I am even prepared to visit $3,124 again.. but I believe such odds are realistically getting to the below 10% arena, currently... maybe if we were really giving lots of benefit of the doubt to bear scenarios, we might come up with some benefit of the doubt thoughts of odds of 20%ish... perhaps? perhaps?.. but sub $1k.. jeez, those odds must be much below 5%, no?  Maybe even below 2%?  Gotta be some pretty dark and black swan and Armageddon type shit to go below $1k.
legendary
Activity: 3808
Merit: 7912
It's not really a big deal but I found a small problem with the ranges we've decided on.

 The very first set should be 1-50 (or 0-49 which would change all other picks too) otherwise whoever chooses that has one extra dollar in their range (0-50 is a $51 range) over everyone else.  On the other hand, if the price is $0 then I guess we all lose anyway...  Sad




at zero the prize is also zero



 Respectfully disagree.  At $0 the prize is still .125 Bitcoin and even if the network is down,  i believe El duderino would provide a paper wallet with those funds - probably already set aside.  I also imagine there will be many WO members collecting as many BTC as possible at that price point.

legendary
Activity: 3808
Merit: 7912
It's not really a big deal but I found a small problem with the ranges we've decided on.

 The very first set should be 1-50 (or 0-49 which would change all other picks too) otherwise whoever chooses that has one extra dollar in their range (0-50 is a $51 range) over everyone else.  On the other hand, if the price is $0 then I guess we all lose anyway...  Sad


Not true. Check this final list of participants: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.53569347
Rules are that your winning range extends if there is a gap in the list before or after you. Lowest prediction is 3101-3150 so there is a gap before and this user gets the entire range 0-3150.
Similarly if there is a gap between two participants, the gap splits and ads to both of them, for example:
Quote
Selected price rangeParticipantsWinning price range
5051-5100fabiorem4776-5125
5151-5200sgbett *5126-5325
Gap from 5101 to 5151 is 50, fabiorem gets 25 added to his range and sgbett gets 25 before his range.

I think this rule was fantastic idea because otherwise we could have a situation when no one wins.

 Thanks.  I was merely pointing out the inconsistency  in groupings for future events if they were to occur by the grace of el duderino.
legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1477
Self made HODLER ✓
We didn't post our bitcoin addresses. Will you contact the winner via private message?

When we are at the last days I always write that the winner has to PM me, then all gets settled and I only ask for a post when received....

Already handled some games so I hope some guys can vouch for me that I keep my word Smiley

I surely can. And also many others more trusted and well known users than me.

I would trust you more than I would trust my own mother (literally.. but that's something I don't really want to talk about).
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