Topic: Halving, who's closest with actual Nrs TAKE A CHANCE on the LIST !!! - page 7. (Read 10144 times)

Why would they?


If that's the only concern they have, you're still not a threat in my opinion.


Is "what Bitcoin is" a matter of perspective as well? Because dealing with that again is what I'm "concerned" about.

That's a matter of perspective

I get the impression BTC holders see me as some kind of threat, but what doesn't make sense to me, is seems to me that they are concerned with fiat riches.

I have always been one of the biggest advocates of Bitcoin out there. Nothing has changed, I have more conviction than ever on the absolute assured success of p2p digital cash. I want to see Bitcoin eat the world (and believe it undoubtedly will) to that end I know that price in the short terms doesn't matter (that's not to say that that inevitably, in the long run the value of Bitcoin will increase significantly).

This all relies on understanding and recognising what Bitcoin is. Whilst ever people are distracted by the notion that Bitcoin is a vehicle to increase fiat holdings, then they will repeatedly make the error of going after the most shiny thing, at the moment BTC is billed as "digital gold", for reals? where the hell did it get its value from in the first place to become "digital gold"? (The answer is utility, don't strain yourself thinking).

If it's gold you want, then you need to sift through the muck, you need to do the work. If somebody is holding out "gold" in full view of everyone, and telling you to pile in. You can be pretty sure that you are being duped. If someone tells you not to bother looking over there in the muck where the actual gold is, you might want to ask yourself why. What are all those people doing anyway? "OH DONT MIND THEM" the man says... lol.

Anyway it makes no difference to me, I'm already sure about what is going on. The success of Bitcoin is now assured by things so much larger than whether a few people on Bitcointalk buy it (because that would just be a short term price pressure, which is irrelevant). However, it make make a massive difference to all of you, and so that's why I am still here banging that Bitcoin drum, just like I always have.

Honestly if you think I am here to "crash bitcoin" (I saw crazy pumpkin lady live, lol), then please don't sell your BTC - HODL it and enjoy the ride, sometimes number go up, sometimes it go down. That's all good. You might make a ton of $$$ and that's really cool, you probably make more than I ever did trying to trade

However if you are interested in what Bitcoin is then you owe it to yourself to find it. Don't just buy BSV, but you should probably not just write it off, given that it is the *only* coin pursuing the "BIG BLOCKS BAD" strategy. When you do grok it, you will shit. (Then see if you still want to HODL that BTC, hahaha)

Good luck!

There's one pooper in every party, the wise man said. Hahaha. Plus is it big "good news", or big "bad news"? I'm worried that it might be big bad news.

Yeah I'm still pretty confident. The forecast I made looks broken, however there is some big news coming GLHF!

Hmmmmm the force is strong with this one!





*edit*F U system /

The last correction before the 100% surge to 18801-18850 by the last day. Thanks in advance, OP!

Plus it might actually be the last time everyone can buy under $10,000. Buy the dip, and?

A bump and an update of today's bitcoin price.

I actually would have guessed a bit higher (not that I can remember though and not that I also put too much thought into it at all haha) but then the range I wanted had been taken. Actually, that's sort of something we could consider for next games, how to "share" if you want, and I imagine those who picked after me might have had very few options on some sides of the extremes...

Psychologically, if I predicted like I bet, I'd probably go for a new ATH.

I put no thought into my guess whatsoever. I have no idea what the price will be and don't really care very much either. I fully expect to be badly wrong.

As for me (3151-3200  ) I did not change my forecast.
I see big risks associated with halving and a crisis in the traditional world of finance that should begin very soon. I analyze the risks associated with halving in a separate topic, but unfortunately it is in russian.

^^^ will read you guys later, just dripping by with a small question for those reading and participating this thread

Those with lower prices 4.5——-7K ranges would you still support your price at this moment and still guess that range of area to chose in??

Or would you guys change graphs and thought

8k-10k range same question or would you guys go more bullish or maybe bearish?

Moonboots probably stay moon range addicted 😅😂

Whooah.. we will touch $10,000 soon,.. just keep that movement until the halving... once bitcoin stays $10,000 as its major support, those who predicted $10,000 up has a chance to we.. my prediction by the way is "12551-12600".. I'm excited. EVERYONE PREPARE FOR THE BULL RUN!

@dragonsvlinux + Duderino: fellow DCA-ers unite! It wasn't actually my chosen "strategy" at all, but past few years how things turned out and for a long time now earning only in crypto so by circumstance I get as much bitcoin as it's worth in dollars every month or so. I stopped making actual calculations about whether I lost or made more in $ but I do know for sure if I tried to trade, I'd lose often and big.

@dragonsvlinux yeah absolutely even though I'd like for 10k plus halving etc, I'm actually prepared for a much longer time to see those happen sustainably. I like your comparison but as you say yourself, this territory is not the 2012 territory with very different influencing factors. All the same, even in 2018 I was prepared to wait way longer than 2020 for the next parabola, but for my brain, being above 200 MA this long and at this current volume is something a bit difficult to ignore!

Thanks and well noted, I'm definitely not just a bear. I've been dollar cost averaging for past 2.5 months while hodling dip buying from the past 2 years   Trading is just trading, it's a different idea based on short-term technicals than investing in the fundamentals of something. My DCA is fundamental based (6 months leading upto the halving, with intent to continue afterwards), nothing to do with price, it's time-based. That said, I also like increasing my sats with trading using a small % of my holdings, whether it be shorting BTC or longing alts.


While I think it's healthy to read and explore other people's ideas and opinions, especially those that are different from your own, I don't think it's a requirement to be fair. Many Bitcoin investors have happily ignored TA for the past 10 years, instead focusing on the fundamentals, and arguably done a lot better than some of the best swing traders. Hence why my trading account is now only a minority of my holdings, as opposed to the majority like it used to be.


I hear you, and largely agree with this sentiment. The structure of the bear market + mini-bull & mini-bear is a completely new structure that Bitcoin has never seen before. At the same time and because of this, this open's the doors for a lot more possibilities because these type of long-term prices movements haven't been seen before to compare with.

With enough different theories from late last year, most have either completed or eventually became irrelevant/inaccurate, however these two that (non-coincidentally in my opinion) are based on 2012 are the only ones to remain relevant after 4-5 months, so I find it hard to ignore until invalidated and will remain in the back of my mind until then. Sometimes, I share these things to remind myself, it's not just about wanting to share it to hear others opinions.

I do think your graphs and post are interesting, I don’t see you as only a bear, just a guy with own reasoning, sharing them and working on his own BTC-story, as we all should do.
We can I mean must read and explore what other are writing as it’s a whole learning process where nobody has answers on, the beautiful part imo...
I do read a lot, not always understand everything, obviously.
But my main strategy and approach will always be to DCA and not to trade at all (just personal approach)

Then I do believe and think history will not keep repeating itself, as BTC is becoming way more known and way more appreciated, way more needed for tons of people, way more studied, way more applications, endless things are here to see a way more upside for many new people.... the ones that where not interested few years back, cause they don’t saw any value on there RL, probably cause of more development and building on BTC those guys might see some stuff and be like, yeah this is something for me, short said I always believe there will be a continuation of user increase as there will be a continuation of OG-HODLers trying to get there hands on more....
That why I do believe in some parabolic moments, only time will tell when.

Hey, yeah me liking it as well.... let’s hope the momentum keep building up and a 5-dig-ranger get it

Schiff and a few others have said BTC years into the future is worth hundreds because its uniquely useful to some, maybe they go onto say those people are only criminals and so on but they seem to be contradicting themselves or being ignorant in their judgement.   If they also predict gold may alter by 1000% why wouldnt that hundreds also possibly turn out to be thousands and still within their bearish prediction, irrational markets etc.
   Disruptive technology, a sector never seen before and sure you dont like it but who liked computers 40 years ago they were annoying and a pain to use and very expensive yet they developed and they found utility, it was foolish to be negative on something changing so fast.    So if you hate BTC but you find it has a unique use and believe this will go for years, the conclusion shouldnt be to short it really.   To his credit or other bears on BTC I dont think they did short because they also hate FIAT generally so as TSLA shorts have found, the price is potentially infinite in a loose money atmosphere.    
   If we were living in a sensible world I reckon price history would only have ever been in the hundreds and we'd be happy about it.  TSLA would be 20x its earnings and people still hyped, but we're on a magical mystery tour so who knows what we'll see in total.

Halvening isnt in the price, its not hyped enough that'll happen closer to the news, so time as a factor and population cross section is a factor and eventually it gets saturated, over done I guess.  I can think we are flat on the year generally but it can rise alot within that range and still be not be hype about it.   I think 2021 or might even be later, thats when a bigger move happens.   It does depend on other factors, external world events imo could be increasingly relevant over protocol adjustment.

Yes and no. The lack of follow through from the bearish Daily close yesterday makes me more short-term neutral, but not quite bullish again yet as we consolidate at the lows of the range. For me, the Week really needs to close above $9,420, otherwise I'd be far from surprised to see price drop back down to $6K-7K range.

Thought I'd share these two charts from September & October 2019, notice the similarity with 2012 here. Not on time-scale, but based on % correction and direction:



The below might look like a handful of random extrapolations at the time, but the entire point was to see what 2020 looks like in comparison to other years.



Look how similarly the fractal of 2012 has played out; obviously it didn't go as low (less volatility these days), but the the lows lineup with a scary amount of accuracy (the extrapolation is time proportionate btw). A re-extrapolation in % proportion would imply mid $7K levels totally possible. Of course you can believe that price history won't repeat itself, but bare in mind it already has with precision in the very recent past. You can also scroll up to see my bullish analysis, I'm not a total bear here, just short-term neutral, probably until end of the week.

Anyone else liking this 9k consolidation going on? I thought the bears might have a chance yesterday but they couldn't seem to tap on the momentum.

Things really looking good for those in the 5-digit range, though I'm sure if you asked jojo, he/she would probably tag on a couple more thousand. I know I certainly would

P.S. @hatshepsut93 -- the code actually works really well. Even notifies me when I open the browser on a new day. Very nice!