it looks like my chance is now officially dead, it's impossible bitcoin will rise back to $11,000 by the end of the month.
This is very much surprising, I was so optimistic one time, now there's a big dump, I gotta stay realistic, congrats to those who have a very close chance of winning.
Topic: Halving, who's closest with actual Nrs TAKE A CHANCE on the LIST !!! - page 4. (Read 10142 times)
March 13, 2020, 01:56:16 AM
March 13, 2020, 01:37:01 AM
Up! 
I'm back in business! My chances are increasing every minute
I'm back in business! My chances are increasing every minute
Don't be so happy, if this madness continues much longer Yaplatu will have a better chance than anybody...
And we're all losing (well, not technically all, "just" the HODLers...)
March 12, 2020, 06:27:07 AM
Up!
I'm back in business! My chances are increasing every minute
I'm back in business! My chances are increasing every minute
March 10, 2020, 01:35:32 AM
I see I see a shifting in price ranges
The bears might have the momentum, but zoom out! The honey badger don't care, Bitcoin will suck all fiat for as long as the Fed can keep using that paper printing machine.
March 09, 2020, 10:15:58 AM
I see I see a shifting in price ranges
March 09, 2020, 01:05:10 AM
... wouldn't the whalecumulators, market-makers, and other price-setting-entities already have acted on it, and priced the halving in?
Only if they've accurately calculated the risk. PlanB has a recent article that gives a good explanation but basically investors will determine a price based on risk, if many over estimate the risk then the price will be lower than efficient market hypothesis dictates. With the uncertainty from the mainstream around many crypto issues from hacking to competing coins to unknown regulation it can easily be seen how the risk calculation for bitcoin might be overestimated.
https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/efficient-market-hypothesis-and-bitcoin-stock-to-flow-model-db17f40e6107
Quote
Key insight is that returns can be explained by risk alone, consistent with EMH. If you encounter an asset above the line, a first reaction could be that it is a great investment opportunity. A better reaction (from an EMH and non arbitrage point of view) would be that it is too good to be true. We are probably missing risks (or have miscalculated risk) and should try to bring the asset back on the line. Quantifying risk (volatility) is difficult, and indeed the expertise of quants of financial institutions.
I don't see the connection of the halving and the Efficient Market Hypothesis in that quote.
Read this blog. I believe it's closer, and it's more practical. It actually represents why I partly believe that the halving is priced in.
https://medium.com/@nic__carter/an-introduction-to-the-efficient-market-hypothesis-for-bitcoiners-ed7e90be7c0d
Quote
Markets don’t wait for (knowable) events to happen — they anticipate them. This means, if a weather forecast predicts that a hurricane will emerge and wipe out sugarcane plantations next week, speculators will bid up the price of sugar today, anticipating the supply shock.
March 06, 2020, 01:10:51 PM
... wouldn't the whalecumulators, market-makers, and other price-setting-entities already have acted on it, and priced the halving in?
Only if they've accurately calculated the risk. PlanB has a recent article that gives a good explanation but basically investors will determine a price based on risk, if many over estimate the risk then the price will be lower than efficient market hypothesis dictates. With the uncertainty from the mainstream around many crypto issues from hacking to competing coins to unknown regulation it can easily be seen how the risk calculation for bitcoin might be overestimated.
https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/efficient-market-hypothesis-and-bitcoin-stock-to-flow-model-db17f40e6107
Quote
Key insight is that returns can be explained by risk alone, consistent with EMH. If you encounter an asset above the line, a first reaction could be that it is a great investment opportunity. A better reaction (from an EMH and non arbitrage point of view) would be that it is too good to be true. We are probably missing risks (or have miscalculated risk) and should try to bring the asset back on the line. Quantifying risk (volatility) is difficult, and indeed the expertise of quants of financial institutions.
March 06, 2020, 06:37:52 AM
^ I can give you a reason why the price will go up after halving. The Big Miners are the ones that are going to be affected by the halving, halving cuts their revenue generated. Small miners might give up, but the big ones wouldn’t sell their coins for a loss so eventually, the prices would pump.
Moreover, the only way for acquiring Bitcoin is through Mining or purchasing. Miners won't sell their coins for a loss, Hodlers are holding, new coin generation is cut by half, So when the supply is limited and the demand is higher, the price is due for a Pump.
The pump after 2012 halving was ignited because many weren't aware of the halving and FOMOed in. The pump after 2016 halving was because of the rise of ICOs. In 2020, almost everyone in the Globe has heard of Bitcoin and almost everyone in Crypto is aware of the halving event and are prepared. But the thing is Crypto is getting legalised left and right by the Governments, so it is the right time for the no coiners and huge financial institutions to join the party. So just chill, the price of Bitcoin eventually rise parabolically.
OK, with everyone already, and clearly, knowing all that what you have posted, wouldn't the whalecumulators, market-makers, and other price-setting-entities already have acted on it, and priced the halving in?
March 06, 2020, 03:24:53 AM
^ I can give you a reason why the price will go up after halving. The Big Miners are the ones that are going to be affected by the halving, halving cuts their revenue generated. Small miners might give up, but the big ones wouldn’t sell their coins for a loss so eventually, the prices would pump. Moreover, the only way for acquiring Bitcoin is through Mining or purchasing. Miners won't sell their coins for a loss, Hodlers are holding, new coin generation is cut by half, So when the supply is limited and the demand is higher, the price is due for a Pump.
The pump after 2012 halving was ignited because many weren't aware of the halving and FOMOed in. The pump after 2016 halving was because of the rise of ICOs. In 2020, almost everyone in the Globe has heard of Bitcoin and almost everyone in Crypto is aware of the halving event and are prepared. But the thing is Crypto is getting legalised left and right by the Governments, so it is the right time for the no coiners and huge financial institutions to join the party. So just chill, the price of Bitcoin eventually rise parabolically.
The pump after 2012 halving was ignited because many weren't aware of the halving and FOMOed in. The pump after 2016 halving was because of the rise of ICOs. In 2020, almost everyone in the Globe has heard of Bitcoin and almost everyone in Crypto is aware of the halving event and are prepared. But the thing is Crypto is getting legalised left and right by the Governments, so it is the right time for the no coiners and huge financial institutions to join the party. So just chill, the price of Bitcoin eventually rise parabolically.
February 28, 2020, 01:51:10 AM
Seeing the recent crash, what's everyone's opinion? Is the halving priced in?
Nothing is ever fully priced in until it's over and done with. Regarding the upcoming halving, everyone is still speculating about what everyone else is going to do.
People were saying the halving was priced in Q1 2016, right before the price doubled.
I have a mixed opinion, BUT with the recent crash, I ask, how would knowing a change in supply issuance years before it started, be ignored by market-makers, whale-cumulators, and other people that influence the market?
What makes you think it's being ignored?
Then if the halving is not being ignored, and if it was already acted upon because it's a "known event", then it's possible that it has already been priced in by the market-makers, whale-cumulators, and others that influence and set the price.
February 27, 2020, 04:34:37 AM
Seeing the recent crash, what's everyone's opinion? Is the halving priced in?
Nothing is ever fully priced in until it's over and done with. Regarding the upcoming halving, everyone is still speculating about what everyone else is going to do.
People were saying the halving was priced in Q1 2016, right before the price doubled.
I have a mixed opinion, BUT with the recent crash, I ask, how would knowing a change in supply issuance years before it started, be ignored by market-makers, whale-cumulators, and other people that influence the market?
What makes you think it's being ignored?
February 27, 2020, 03:20:52 AM
Seeing the recent crash, what's everyone's opinion? Is the halving priced in? I have a mixed opinion, BUT with the recent crash, I ask, how would knowing a change in supply issuance years before it started, be ignored by market-makers, whale-cumulators, and other people that influence the market?
February 26, 2020, 06:21:42 AM
February 25, 2020, 08:20:42 PM
February 25, 2020, 05:32:38 AM
A month and a few days till the end of the game, where da F*** we going to
Yeah, weird, we could be anywhere by then. No idea.
Haha lol when I read that sentence again
what was I doing ..... 
February 25, 2020, 05:11:39 AM
A month and a few days till the end of the game, where da F*** we going to
Yeah, weird, we could be anywhere by then. No idea.
February 25, 2020, 04:58:49 AM
One day and a few days till end of game, where da F*** we going at
February 22, 2020, 06:16:59 PM
The force is strong with this one /\
February 22, 2020, 06:11:31 AM
Haha. It's a roller coaster. BUT, buy the dip and HODL, and treat every opportunity to buy below $10,000 like a golden opportunity. It WILL NOT crash under that one day.
February 22, 2020, 06:01:57 AM
That guy LFC_Bitcoin needs some movement to get to 11251-11300
Come on brother I hope you get there
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