Topic: ► ► ►HashFast Endorsement - page 25. (Read 36908 times)

While a fascinating endorsement and belief in the rising price of Bitcoin, your gut feeling does not encourage opening ones wallet.  Unless you are implying you are aware of some intent to manipulate the market to ensure that this upcoming generation of miners will seem more attractive than they really are because everyone is on the feel-good of rising prices?  Before the inevitable realization that once people start heavily investing in mining hardware with large sums of money that the natural behavior will be to sell increasing amounts of the Bitcoin being mined, driving the price down after all the ASIC vendors have cashed out? So you are right, the price is likely not going to stay at $100.

So HashFast is seriously planning for the contingency of better gear being available when its gear is ready?  Is that the rationale for not allowing CC?  

maybe.  i enjoy mining however, and i'd like to think i'm doing my part in decentralizing the network.  but yes, i do expect to make a healthy return also on the rigs.

you should be ok.  they have told me they will offer full refunds by the end of year if they're late.  also look for plans for a miner protection plan.

yes, but in this case is MUCH better to buy bitcoins at 100 instead of 3 months free loan. just because money makes money and you should operate with them and react for any upcoming situation. it is so simple for understanding..

given the fact that if people kept their btcs instead of giving to bfl they would be RICH and have more coins . getting people to give up non-"refundable" coins is a very dangerous thing to ask for if there are no prototypes or anything real for people to judge by. just saying take our word for it makes you no different than yifu or bfl josh. the gen 1 asic companies have really fucked up people's trust. and with so many delays etc some people feel it's safer to invest USD as opposed to BTC since ROI on BTC is in BTC for most

Then you can just buy bitcoin, or not spend it.

I'm sure the people who spent 3000 BTC or equivalent for a BFL mini-rig wished they had...

someone is very prescient.

thanks.))

..and yes, exactly.

i for one do not think the price is going to stay at 100.

Another important point: by the time an Avalon unit is no longer electrically efficient the difficulty will be around 2-5 billion, depending on power costs.

At that point this HashFast unit will be making only about $8-4 a day, even if it's just 100 Watts.

So, while that's going to be an issue in the long run, there's still a lot of profit to be had on the way up from 300 million to 2 billion difficulty.

That's why KnC is a better bet right now even though it's more expensive.  I think it's pretty likely that a KnC unit delivered in September or October will at least cover the cost difference between this and their units.

That said, I do think HashFast will get a lot of sales anyway.  

If HashFast wants sales, they should tie the hashrate of their miners to the difficulty rate on delivery.  I.e. so you buy the equivalent of 500TH/s today, if the difficulty goes up more then expected, they'd send you more hash power.

  As surprising as that might be, I think we're in agreement on something.  

I'm not at all pleased to announce that i have no frickin idea what a "paid sponsor" is.  Are you trying to boil my brain?
Since the day i was torn from my mother's breast, i've been duped into believing that sponsors are the ones who do the paying. 
Now, in these, my sunset years... You tell me it's the other way around? 

I think you just about summed it up. Honestly I don't think that you can realistically expect to make much of a return assuming that the price of Bitcoin stays at the same $100 level. The only people that will get a great ROI are the ones selling the miners.

Does everyone agree that the payoff profile of a pre-order is the same as a bond?  

If so, then it's a simple extension to make the cancellation a put option that the vendor grants to the bondholder (customer).

So, what you're probably saying is that you don't want to grant a free option to the customer, and who can blame you?  But it's not game theoretic; you could price that option:  pre-order, locked in, vs pre-order, with cancelation option.  

Maybe you don't want to do that.  Maybe you don't have to.  

i'm really talking about asking for a refund just before you take delivery of a machine.  KNC has guaranteed this, which IMO, is a huge risk if ppl perceive their is a better product out there.  yes, HashFast is asking you to take a risk in receiving a machine you might not want but that's the risk here.  at least if they are late, you're guaranteed a refund so all in all that's a reasonable risk given the time frame at which they expect to deliver in late October.

I almost fell out of my chair when I saw that.  Well played.  

Seriously, though, why on earth would people move en masse to unproven hardware when just about any vendor in the "pre-order" market has an equal chance of never delivering or delivering slightly too late, meaning their customers have no chance at ROI in this small arms race we have going.  These are bold statements without any real proof to back them up.  The numbers just don't tell a compelling tale.  

Honestly, the price of the unit is within what we are willing to spend on hardware, however we're better off just buying BTC at this point and doing some creative trading on Gox.  Better chance of seeing our cash returned at the end of the day.

 That was just the best example image from the wikipedia article.  The "true" shape will be hard to predict, and of course you get different curves for different technologies superimposed on each-other (CPU, GPU and now ASICs, as well as FPGAs in the mix)

I do think the growth phase will be very sharp, though.

It is important to consider that not all units (either delivered or proposed) have similar electrical efficiency.  In a curve like indicated above one is in a better position if their personal "hash efficiency" (chip efficiency, PSU efficiency, and individual electrical rates combined to produce operating cost per hash) is superior to the "average Joe".  As difficulty climbs, gross revenue per unit of hashing power will decline and thus net revenue will get squeezed.  The marginal miner (higher electrical cost in USD per hash) will be crushed first.  Those miners will go negative ROI% and once they are sure that price/difficulty isn't going to improve (give up home) eventually idle their rigs.  That means it is possible for hashrate to decline independent of price.  Of course any decline will be short lived as miners contemplate higher ROI% on new units and place orders.  Unless shipping time is 1 day though there will be a lag (we have seen it in the GPU era even with supplies essentially unconstrained) and those higher efficiency units will be able to power through.

Still there are always risks involved, the odds are nobody is going to make a fortune mining anymore.  I would be happy to just generate some coins at a small margin and reduce the needs to deal with awful exchanges.