Topic: ► ► ►HashFast Endorsement - page 26. (Read 36924 times)

if the customer is satisfied. Why would they file a charge back? Perhaps that is sign that the company isn't confident in the product. Besides that, look at Avalon and the chip sales.

I understand your point - you don't want to risk chargebacks because people might do a chargeback simply because they no longer think the investment is viable..  And you consider a pre-order to be like an investment. That's how I look at it, there is a risk and you have to weigh the odds and decide if the reweard outweighs the risk of failure.

But here's the thing: If you're not willing to allow returns on pre-orders between now and when you ship because you're worried that investors might think your chips aren't actually be good investments when you actually ship them, and do a chargeback, then isn't it obvious that investors should, in fact, be worried their chips aren't actually good investments when you do ship them?

That's the problem here - the difficulty could potentially go up so quickly that by the time your products ship, they'll no longer have much value.

I wrote a post upthread about this, but you may have missed it.  The problem is, without knowing how many chips are going to come online and what the hashrate will be when you ship, there's no way to evaluate the investment.

If you look at BFL, for example - when they were the only people with ASICs, they didn't bother to ship their products at all.  This kept the hashrate really low, making their products look really attractive.  It's only when other companies started shipping products that they started shipping as well.

But, they took orders for products that they knew would never ROI simply because of all the other orders they took!.  That's why I stayed away from them at the time.

The risk here isn't that you won't ship, it's that your chips won't make ROI, both because of the competitors (KnC, Cointerra, Laboin, BTCGarden, etc, etc, etc) but also because of the total number of chips that you sell!

If you're going to treat pre-order customers as investors then you need to put out enough information for people to make a serious economic analysis.

who's being ridiculous?

Why would ANYONE do that.  If someone has a unit which is currently hashing why not just keep using it themselves rather than sell it to you?  I am not saying you should buy one but thinking that someone will produce a unit, which is operational, and profitable and then turn it off just so they can send it to you and collect some BTC after the fact?  Would you?

Thank you; you saved me the need to reply.  All I'll add is that, while the curve you show here is the cumulative normal probability function, which gives the shape normatively well, there are existential reasons why the network hash might well follow a Gompertz function.  

Specifically, that curve is used to model cellular growth in confined circumstances where total available nutrients are bounded.  Wiki has some decent overview.  

what i'm saying is that ppl could react like me.  when i read what HashFast was doing and the resumes of the ppl involved and where they were doing it, i cx'd my cc orders at KNC.   i'm not here to bash KNC.  they could be great.  all i'm saying is that if enough ppl react like i did, there could be financial issues created as a result.  same thing could happen to HashFast if someone else comes along.

i'll be totally honest here.  i cx'd my Jupiter orders the day before i went to their office.  before i'd even met them. 

Satisfied customer = no chargeback.

so we begin to see the problems with taking cc's in such an industry. 

with a cc, a chargeback could not be prevented.

You're going to have to do much better job of selling them if you expect that to happen.  Even with all your optimistic projections, people who bought that stuff will still have a chance to make most of their ROI in September and October, if they ship on time.

You also have Cointerra out there as well.

Here's a more reasonable proposition - you're probably high on something (is it the pay they promised you?) - KNC/Bitfury would not let that happen...

here's an interesting game theory proposition:  what if all those cc orders housed at KNC or with BitFury get cancelled b/c ppl believe in the HashFast team and concept?

yes almost, with only one small difference. bitcoin is jumping up and down, but hashrate is still going up (just check both charts for last 3 months). and because KNC (most likely) and Avalon will deliver their devices/chips BEFORE HashFast send their miners (there will be huge hashrate raise), is imho much better to buy BTC (if you believe it) instead of preorder.(

While that's true, one thing an unscrupulous chip maker could make a chip and sell it at what seems like a profitable price, but sell so many that you'll singlehandedly drive up the difficulty so much they'll never make ROI.  That was obviously BFL's plan from the beginning.

In fact, the longer you can delay your shipments and keep the difficulty low in order to take more orders, the more money you can make... no wonder they took so long for BFL delver and only started shipping units when credible competitors came out.

Without knowing how many chips a company is planning to sell, there's no way to evaluate what the chips are actually worth.  One thing I liked about Avalon, at least initially, is that they had a specific number of units they planned  to ship (until they started taking chip orders...)

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If they are looking for people with the mindset of venture capital investors, then they should treat people the way they would treat any VC.  That means lots of detailed information people can use to evaluate the investment. I think Labcoin did a good job of doing that (I got IPO shares), but obviously being in the U.S. you can't do a public IPO that way.

I don't doubt that these guys can produce a chip, I'm sure they'll be able to.  The question is: will that chip be able to make ROI given their prices, and given the massive increase in network strength caused by chips from KnC, Cointerra, Labcoin, BTCGarden, ASICMiner, along with possibly the Avalon pre-order chips shipping

That said, there are probably a lot of people out there who have plenty of money to throw out on things like this, so there's a good chance you might get a ton of pre-orders.


Ugh, this is so wrong. The most likely path of a hashrate graph is that it will trace a sigmoid function.



It will start accelerating, then start to slow down when people stop increasing their hashrate as it becomes less profitable.  There is no way that hashrate will ever go down unless the price of bitcoin also colapses, so that mining ceases to even cover electricity costs. (Of course it'll be superimposed on another, slower growth caused by More's law as transistor density increases, but we can ignore that for now)

Right now, the difficulty will have to go up something like 100x before it starts to get close to power costs. At those rates a 400Gh/s device will only make a few dollars a day.

Don't worry, neither do we .

reading a hashrate graph is similar to reading a stock chart which i specialize in.  there is no way it can go parabolic forever.  what's going to happen is that it will eventually retrace heavily at some point as the shakeout in the industry begins.  those companies with the fastest chip and maximum power efficiencies are going to survive.  i don't think HashFast plans on being one of those.

plus, if the BTC price goes up, which i definitely believe is going to happen in a major way, the best strategy is to get a hold of as many BTC as possible, as fast as possible.  mining rigs help facilitate this.

yes, it's not that there is NO risk.  the whole Bitcoin concept is at the bleeding edge of technology.  Bitcoin itself may fail.

perhaps you should go visit their office?  that has made the difference for quite a few ppl around here.

Looking at the price, I have to speculate...

I personally hate when people are like "Yo, mining.thegenesisblock.com that stuff!", but I have to step up with some cost analysis.  If the price remains the same, delivery is close to on track (so we'll say Nov 1st), and price remains about what it is today, you're looking to peak at about $1150 profit from your purchase.  This is conservatively estimating that difficulty will only go up by around 75% monthly and price will remain steady at current pricing.  If pricing slumps to around $95 USD, you'll never even make $500 from this machine.  

What sense does this make to pre-order without the security of at least a credit card purchase behind it?  While I will agree there seems to be an impressive team behind this hardware, this is effectively like buying a block erupter and expecting it to pay itself off.  It never will, it's really a stopgap that is a fun novelty and enables folks to continue mining when GPUs are no longer effective and there is no other shipping alternative.  

It would be excellent for the team to explain the pricing vs. hashpower as it really is not an attractive offer with such uncertainty heading into the next six months.  For a market hungry for new hardware and deciding where to place bets for the next generation, this doesn't scream "place your bet here".