Topic: [HAVELOCK] PETAMINE - 1,150 TH/S HASH RATE (1GH/S per Unit) - page 74. (Read 565833 times)

Fair enough, if cryptx gets delisted but can still be traded freely, and there is a reasonable and objective mechanism to determine their market value (ie not "I got a bid on IRC for 1 share"), I have no problem with the bet running its course. However, if it goes gigamining style, direct shares, no longer tradable, there is no objective way to determine its value. In principle Id be okay to add up all future dividends and a final buyback price,  but it could take years before we have these numbers, and Im not willing to bet on such a long term. But I cant see a reason for cryptx to do this, other than because of what Ive been saying, that cryptx is breaking security regulations and can not publicly offer these securities. Can you see any other reason? If not, why would you worry about it?


Define "original investor" for me. You mean the one's that bought at 0.05 BTC on havelock ? Or  on btct.co at 0.65 BTC before the split ? Or the ones that bought in privately before it went on btctc? If so, no dice, those investors have been handed freebies at the expense of later ones. I very much doubt that will put them in the black 6 months from now, but Im not betting on that, I dont even have an idea how much dividends they received on btct.co to date. Im betting against anyone who got in at 0.095 or anyone getting in at todays market price. The fact you claim you are not selling means you expect to achieve a profit above todays value, so why not use that?


If havelock closed down, shares wouldnt be worthless, I would assume they would be relisted on another exchange. If your fear is that this might happen exactly when our bet expires, Im more than willing to put in some provision that allows time for a relisting elsewhere. And Im not betting on havelock being forced shut. I would however be willing to bet on the issuer being closed down, but not in a timeframe Im willing to lock in funds.

If peta were to be delisted and decide to faciliate trades in an open auction thread, or counterparty, or some other variation AND sum of dividends and shares still worked out to come to a positive ROI, why would you automatically win?

where shares are traded should not account into things. it's a bet only on whether an original investor could see a btc denominated profit. in exactly 6 months. in this specific terms it's either been a good investment or a bad one.

as long as a neutral adjudicator can come to the conclusion that these shares can be sold on market at X price and sum of that and dividends is more than originally input you'd lose, otherwise you'd win. (discounting funny business like anotheranonlol2 coming along right on time to buy shares off exchange for 0.0976btc)

Besides If peta were to be delisted and/or cryptx were to go bankrupt or havelock went dark, you'd be more likely to win purely based on the actual premise of the bet- the fact shares would have lost some or all of their value. The provision is a problem because it's got no relevance to the bet. You can make a separate bet if you want to put money on havelock closing down (I'd say no on delisting and slightly less no but still no on havelock closure in exactly 6 months) just for posterity sake

anyway, all of these posts have gone down on record, cached on btt mirror too, so regardless who actually bothers to put the money down can come back and do the whole quoting, told you so thing..

 

Yes, that part Im fine with. However,


The reason wouldnt be odd, I have stated why I expect one or both of these things (delisting and/or forced IPO reimbursement) to happen. It has happened before and it will almost certainly happen to cryptx.  I do *not* know if it will take more or less than 6 months, nor do I know if this will cause shareholders to profit or cryptx to go bankrupt;  but Im not betting against my own prediction that cryptx will at some point be forced to delist its securities and comply with regulations.

Is that the profit you are betting on, or at least unwilling to bet against? Why is this provision a problem for you if you are adamant that cryptx is not breaking any regulations?


I am sure that if cryptx remains listed, shareholders will not profit. I am not sure at all if that will be the case if/when authorities step in. Had BTC price collapsed instead of skyrocketed, VMC/Activeminer shareholders would have profited very nicely from the  settlement forced upon it. Again, is that why are betting on cryptx?

nope...

we've gone over this

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.7143220
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.7143670
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.7150293


I'm betting you a neutral third party will be able to independently verify that me, as a random investor at IPO stage (the i stands for initial) WILL be able to see a positive ROI (ie: more than 100% of the amount I originally put in) in exactly 6 months
I'm not speaking for any other investors. You can't perpetually guarantee everyone will make money, can't cry out for asicminer bagholders who brought in at 4.5btc.

No you don't win if for some odd reason cryptx decided to turn to colored coins or trade via direct shares, because it doesn't mean there isn't a market value. as long as there's a provable market value there's market value.. I don't see any reason for any sort of refunds but as far as btc denominated gains go. if there is a gain, it's valid. the investment was profitable and I've won, if there's a loss, it's not valid  investments not profitable and you've won. should be easy right? otherwise what exactly are you arguing about? potentially some investors might not make money?

the crazy clauses make it sound like you don't actually want to put down 10btc to bet so you've intentionally made them obtuse.

How is this so tricky? It's a really simple bet for someone who is so sure no investors will ever see a positive ROI.

I am obviously confident that I will, so my money is where my mouth is. money is waiting to go into your multisig purse.
Why don't you take the opportunity to add insult to injury by taking 10btc away from me?

We'll make it a more formal contract, but essentially my conditions are
- 6 months from now crytpx share price + sum of all dividends < 0.0975 BTC IPO
- If cryptx is delisted and not relisted on a public exchange, I win (gigamining scenario)
- if cryptx is forced by authorities to refund IPO investors, be it in BTC or in fiat, I win regardless of the height of the settlement and the BTC/Euro exchange rate. (activemining scenario)

As for escrow, Id have to look in to it, but I would prefer a multisig transaction so that we can solve the outcome without arbiter, and only need the arbiter if we cant agree. More secure than sending 20BTC to whatever third party.

Yep, be sure you're clear on the conditions and then find a neutral trusted escrow.

LOL? I would love to, but everyone else chickened out. Are you game?

no it wasn't.. the figures were more like 54 BTC/TH with btc trading around $105
20TH was additional deployment as a bonus already prefunded by cryptx. with each share representing 10GH regardless
this was the time some famous icedrill and DMS pumpers where showing up to give it bobby big balls saying how nobody will get a penny, even some poor souls putting their money into labcoin instead.

No they've all gone awol, peta-hash is chugging along nicely

still waiting for you to take the 10btc bet by the way.

Dont like AM or rockminer? Look at bitmain. Last november  S1 antminers sold for 4.75 BTC (bids up to 6BTC), by mid january it had dropped to 2.2 BTC and last week it was 0.414 BTC.

BTW, if not AM, who do you think just added nearly 20PH to the network in the past week? Hint: it wasnt cryptx.

Whose puppet are you?

Those rockminer toys do seem to be generating more heat than bitcoins...

Id appreciate if you quoted correctly and not put someone else's words in my mouth.

That said, selling hardware doesnt change  anything at all. On average hardware depreciates just as fast as difficulty goes up.   To illustrate,  last august, cryptx first IPO was for 20TH, 10K shares at 0.65BTC per share. That means, ~325 BTC/TH. Right now,  Cryptx is valued at 4.7 BTC/TH and rockminer hardware is about to hit retail market at around 1.7-2.5 BTC/TH. Can you spot the pattern?

Whatever residual value you get for your used hardware, I dont see how you would expect to buy more hashrate with it.

You forgot about where we sell the miner after three months

@cryptx

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/how-to-run-your-own-p2pool-in-ubuntu-1404-lts-with-merged-mining-651819

This is a guide for setting up a p2pool node, including nmc, dvc and ixc merged mining.

My bids ? Lol. Lend me your shares or accept my bet and Ill stay away for a week. Deal?

Puppet, I'm tempted to fill your bids so we can have another week without you in our thread.  Your game is getting tiring.

Ah, exactly! And just like that, you've caught a glimpse of what it's like to run a publicly funded mining farm.



This. 1000 times, this.

It's a perpetual cycle of perceived returns, ultimately leading to a loss for many people. There are very, very few people who profited quite well off of mining, mainly from the early days when ASICs first started coming out (think of the first Avalon or ASICMiner units, back when difficulty was still under 5M).

Since then it's been: Pay BTC5.0 for a miner. First month, mine BTC2.5 ..second month, mine BTC1.25 ..third month, mine BTC0.625 ...etc, etc. It's a trend that won't continue forever, sure, but until there's a plateau in hardware development we can probably expect to see a similar pattern for a while.

Historically, almost no asic miner ever achieved a positive BTC denominated ROI, and going forward that is not going to change. (I am talking about people or companies buying retail products, not private mines producing their own asics, much less people smart enough to sell their hashrate)

That said, if you think peta could possibly achieve  a positive ROI with hardware costing nearly 5BTC/TH and $0.2/KWH or whatever electricity,  then consider this:

http://minersource.net/collections/frontpage/products/rockminer-crossbow-440-440gh-bitcoin-miner

Thats closer to 2.5 BTC/TH and can be run in datacenters with $0.02/KWH. Clearly if PETA is even able to break even, then that rockminer is a gold mine that will nearly double your investment. Now guess what would happen if that were true? Who wouldnt buy something that will double their investments? Everyone and their dog would buy as many of these as they could get their hands on, but keep in mind AM has 60PH on its way for this month and possibly 100PH in the next month. The result is inevitable, difficulty will shoot up so high that even those rockminers will on average at best be marginally profitable, except maybe for some lucky early buyers if rockminer/AM would have trouble keeping up with demand.  So if even these rockminers are not likely to achieve a significant positive ROI,  where does that leave PETA?

You people just dont seem to get this is a zero sum game and a race to the bottom at the same time. There is no way to win this race, not by buying hardware anyway.


ROFL. Im not sure which of both pipedreams I consider less laughable, PETA breaking even or BTC breaking 1 million dollar this year..

I understand that this is eventually a possibility, but for 2014 it is borderline insane to assume a price like that.

if they cant make ROI and turn that into growth I dont see how any miner could.
if every new hardware period you made ROI+ from the previous hardware, how can you not grow?

so ya i still believe in PETA, i stated my reason for leaving, bitcoin is going to 6000-10000 or might even break that cycle this year with a mass exodus of adopters finally taking the plunge into bitcoin and reach the expected 1 million dollar / BTC mark (based on liquidity needs for large population)

make it 10% for 2 weeks then we are back on track and we can buy more hashing power or at least increase our fund to buy a big order soonish not in 8 weeks like we are on now...

I have invested a large amount of BTC, I want it to succeed in the long run.

greed is our worst enemy now and people who argue for a 50% div. just want to sell their shares at top dollars