Topic: HBN Investment Journal - 2% returns every ten days - 90,000+ HBN Porfolio - page 29. (Read 69845 times)

go home r0ach, you're drunk.

After looking at some stake code, I wonder if the Hobonickels dev, or original poster, realize that everything in this thread, including the coin itself, is the exact dictionary definition of Ponzi scam.  Early entrants are rewarded with huge, unsustainable minting rewards, just like in a regular Ponzi scam, then as more people join in the system, the unsustainable stake rewards slow to a crawl due to stake amount being linked to a difficulty variable, eventually going exponentially lower.  There's really no rationalizing around it.  It is for all intents an purposes, identical to a Ponzi scam.


Ponzi scheme - a fraudulent investment operation that pays returns to its investors from existing capital or new capital paid by new investors, rather than from profit earned by the individual or organization running the operation. Operators of Ponzi schemes usually entice new investors by offering higher returns than other investments, in the form of short-term returns that are either abnormally high or unusually consistent. The perpetuation of the high returns requires an ever-increasing flow of money from new investors to sustain the scheme


The only way for a proof of stake coin to not be a Ponzi scam, is if interest rate was static, and not linked to any difficulty variable.  I suggest the Hobonickel dev work on implementing a method to create static interest rates before governments come in for crypto regulation, otherwise they will either outright ban the Hobonickel in most countries, or possibly try to throw you in some kind of gulag.

1) This is all experimental. What we know from Peercoin is that the stake % is quite low and doesn't really attract new investors or give current investors much protection against a drop in value. CENT set it way too high due to a coding error and the coin hyperinflated into nothing. it seems like anything between 20% and 100% is generous, given the high risks that alt-coin investing carry.

2)I believe that a decentralized bank is viable. During a bank run, a traditional bank can refuse to allow withdrawals. The same goes for crypto-exchanges. Look at Mt.Gox for a perfect example. This is why I encourage off-exchange trading using escrow, never keep significant amount of coins on an exchange. As long as the network runs on trusted nodes and there is no chance of attack, a decentralized bank model can take over our current centralized model.

3) Again this is all experimental. What we need is more clones to test out different stake levels and see how the markets react.

4) We live in a capital model which is a zero sum game. Everything from inflation to taxes is a form of slavery. Its the price we pay for the society we live in. Most of us are from 1st world countries and enjoy the perks of this. You need a form of bondage to extract human resources to ensure this type of society. Whether that be high taxes, low minimum wages or inflation of a countries currency. It pays to be an early adopter of anything, I have no ill will against people who got rich off MSFT, APPL or GOOG.

I took this picture of Scrooge McDuck swimming in my pool of Hobonickels.



I don't think I have answered your 4th question sufficiently and I need to head to my low paying boring day job. Perhaps someone can provide some input on this, and hopefully I can think of a better response once i get back from work tonight.

I think everyone should be interested in the Hobonickel due to trying to find information on the following questions:

1)  How high can you set stake before it fails to be usable as a currency and transforms only into a virtual bank

2)  Is a virtual, decentralized bank model viable

3)  What is the optimum stake level to try and balance interest and liquidity at the same time, since increased liquidity obviously increases value

4)  Since Bitcoin's liquidity may not actually be very high due to network propagation times, will proof of stake and interest coins take over entirely.  For Bitcoin to really reach high levels of liquidity, either counter party risk might have to be high in the form of off the block transactions, or 3rd party fractional reserve systems for instant transactions would be developed and exploited, so we'd have the same systems as now, defeating the entire purpose of decentralization.

A lot of people, even traditional financial experts, don't have these questions go through their heads when examining threads or coins like this, but the seemingly insignificant Hobonickel is at the forefront of a crossroads of problems.

I'm not sure if Tokyo's username references him being Asian or not.  In the west, there are extreme, negative connotations going back thousands of years to the concept of interest, many for good reason.  Some philosophers equate the idea of interest as a form of slavery.  Other complaints are religious, yet still philosophical in nature.  I've never really seen anything regarding interest in Asian culture as positive or negative.

The idea of interest is not just a benign, financial tool as day traders like Tokyo make it out to be.  There are ethics issues involved ranging all the way up to slavery.  When Bitcoin is on the verge of changing the entire world financial system, you have to be careful to decide what kind of variants of it you promote, and if that system will create a world you actually want to live in or not.

Imagine if the fiat dollar collapsed tomorrow and the only thing of worth became crypto and gold.  Bitcoin and gold bagholders get a one time windfall profit, then assuming the Hobonickel survived, you're all now basically slaves of Tokyoghetto living entirely off billions of interest generated from his ocean liner of Hobonickels bought for pennies.

Having studied economics and being in the financial industry, I would say that is what HBN has done right and Peercoin did wrong. Cryptos are volatile and risky. To accommodate for risk there must be more reward.  Why would I invest in Peercoin when the "risk free" income producing assets produce 3% annually?  There is not much reason to in my eyes. Now add in a more generous stake, and a coin that at very least holds at steady levels if not increased in value, then you definitely have my interest (and apparently many other people's interest as well).

The great thing about the economics of HBN is that there is a constraint on supply.  When there are large bursts of demand (like we have seen in the past week) supply is unable to fill the orders without running up the order book.  The supply constraint is due to stake holders not wanting to waste their coin age.

Although some people consider HBN a junk coin, or whatever label you would like to slap on our community, and that the name prevents X from happening, etc. etc. the reality of the matter is that this is a fun coin with cool features in the wallet, you get to actively control your investments in the coin, the developer is one of the best and most attentive developers I have seen on almost any coin, there is a fun crowd that is attracted to the coin, I could go on and on.  All of these things create demand. At the end of the day all that matters is supply and demand. Supply and demand matters r0ach, not beef jerky. Coinonomics is what is important, not buzzwords and such.  And HBN does seem to have kept your attention, so something is being done right.

It's kind of funny how that works.  There are thousands of highly knowledgeable people who have known about this coin since release.  When you first looked into it, it started out with kind of a poor logo, at least compared to the nice one currently, and any mention of the coin was associated with beef jerky.  Many people ignored the coin for months thinking it was a joke coin, and didn't even know it had a developer.  Now it seems like the Hobo dev is more active than the PPC dev himself...

The Hobonickel seems to have developed into a highly profitable scheme for Tokyoghetto.  Anything involving interest is basically a "scheme" in biblical context right? haha (no, I'm not religious).  I'm unsure of the coin's variables as a long term economic model as either a currency or virtual bank.  The PPC dev was much more conservative with stake, and the hobo is much more generous.  It's very hard to calculate the validity of the economic model yourself when the stake utilizes a difficulty variable.  You can't really use Tokyo's stake numbers at all for research.  The stake data is virtually useless because the coin was in the graveyard when he started staking, and there's no telling what future stake competition will be.  The only thing certain is that there's way more benefit for being a monopoly man on stake coins, assuming anything besides BTC makes it out alive.

The Hobo dev should also release a tshirt on the website btw.  I already own a shirt that looks kinda similar from some place in Wyoming/Montana (I forget which one).

So PoS minting has slowed down on HBN so its time to put my trader cap on and review the action on HBN from the past few days.

So we tested the 17000 mark and had an explosive breakout on HBN. price raced to the 30000 satoshi range, where bulls and bears scrapped it out in the name of price discovery. Price peaked at 40000, then pulled back to the 20000 mark, where the market is basically taking a rest and forming a solid base. Below is a 7 day chart of HBN, taken from Cryptsy.



I sold 3000 HBN that were PoS mined between .00036 and .00032 you can read about it here. Netted a tick over 1 BTC.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.5160966

So what does this mean? From what I see, it appears that new hands are entering the trade. These traders are buying up liquidity, then removing it from the exchange so that they can stake coins. I have no problem with price being where it is today. I haven't bought back in but anything under 20000 is a bargain to me. I may even decide to compound the next couple of PoS mining sessions, as I anticipate another test of the 40000 mark in the future.

So today I had a fellow HOBO inquire about an off-exchange block purchase. Although at the moment I am not selling any HBN, just looking at the orderbook I can see some juicy offers just waiting to get gobbled up. This would definitely fill a nice chunk of this persons order while still trading around the best offer/price.

9178 HBN. Not that far from the best offer, definitely being sold cheaper than Saturdays high of 40000 satoshis.



The point here is patience. This order may have not been available when he looked at the book, but these big blocks do spring up from time to time. Perhaps it's a day trader looking to get out of a trade, or a bot making the spread on big size, or it's a PoS miner looking to cash out. In either case, with enough time, you can fill up on delicious HBN at decent prices. I certainly hope that whoever PM'ed me runs over to Cryptsy right now and eats up this big block.

Get aggressive, hit the offer. Fear? That is the other guys problem.

I would like to apologize to everyone in advance if you have PM'd me and I haven't replied. Please understand that I am busy from time to time. Sometimes I go hours just watching the level II on Cryptsy, reading through announcement threads, checking my miners, doing research, trying out trade ideas.

24 hour markets demand the most amount of work, but reap the biggest rewards. This is why forex is the biggest market that trades today. Cryptos are somewhat similar. It demands your full attention, your full commitment. It is because of this amount of work that I will not willingly give away my other trade ideas.

I am not trying to be rude, but some people here think that I will just gave away trade ideas. Some of those trades are still working and for me to reveal them would hurt my returns. I am also a firm believer in tough love and although I won't shut people out completely, please do not expect to be spoon-fed and be made a millionaire overnight, this is serious business and it requires work!

This journal was created so that we can all learn. I am learning along the way just like everyone else. I am sure there have been people who have made generous returns on HBN if they have been reading from the beginning. Pretty much anything that I am willing to reveal will be contained within this journal. If you have any questions about how I operate in regards to HBN please ask me in this journal or PM me.

Anyone asking for free trade ideas, I have a hot-tip for you..."Blue horseshoe LOVES Visacoin"

Thanks.

I love tokyoghetto

Sorry I don't understand your question.

The guys from elitetraders.com, you mean?

I just mentioned this to a fellow HOBO over PM. It does appear that a floor is being formed around .0002 BTC. This is important because any buys under .0002 are a steal! New, strong hands are entering this trade and they won't let this baby drop.

Ohh yes, nice floor at 0.0002 

I personally never interpreted this journal as a billboard pump, to me it seems like you are simply publicly tracking your experiences and sharing what you learn.

Regarding the name I thought 'hobonickels' wasn't very good at first. But then I read about the real hobonickels, of which I wasn't aware of, and now I like it.

I'd agree though that it may put people off.  Not many people have ever heard of hobonickels (the historical ones) before.

This journal was never intended to be a billboard pump.

I really can't answer this question. If you are just getting started with cryptos, build up a mining rig and learn about all the different coins. You can also buy HBN and invest, but you would be limiting yourself to one trade.

I hope people don't assume that I am all in on just one coin. I have many trades going on at once. Hobonickels is just one trade that I wanted to write a journal about and make it public.

I'm almost happy the price is coming down a bit since I don't plan on selling anytime soon. Looking forward to being able to mine a few more a day than I currently am at this difficulty 

I personnaly don't dislike the name, like others have said and I have to say that I agree, it's a goofy name.  I admit that that's what caught my attention in the first place.  But like I said, from a "marketing" stand point, this name conveys a lot of baggage that people don't always associate with the "good standings" of society.  It is a "renagade" kind of name.

Maybe what I try to say is that it's not a politically correct name for a mass market usage.  But that being said...  I truly couldn't care less about that. And maybe that's why I am here and I enjoy this coins and it's community.

I believe R0ach is right from where he comes from. But on the other hand, this coins is NOT for every one and NOT made to be used as a mass market currency... It's value lies in it's rarity, it's uniqueness and the return it yields... Much like the actual physical coins appeals to collectors.

The longer you keep the coin, the more value you'll get out of it.