Topic: How can we understand market going to be Bear? - page 5. (Read 960 times)

Even without the news, people are already aware about the halving, because it happens every 4 years. There maybe another reason for the pump because like I said earlier, people are not excited anymore about the halving. I mean we are still far away from it. So, why will they be panicking and start fomoing?

The positive news that I said earlier would be the ETF approval. This is where people are more excited about because I think this is the first time that we are going to experience it. Although the declaration of its said approval is not new because if I'm not mistaken, I already heard this before in the year 2017 or 2018 but, it has began to be silent in the following years. 

It is impossible not to notice this when the price of coins is getting lower and lower every day. It is much more difficult to determine the turning point, since any price decrease will be accompanied by corrections that can be mistaken for a trend reversal.

You are right that along with regular trading we should also pay attention to the news because sometimes there is a news in the market which is positive then for example let's see that ETF. Whether it's about the approval or what's about Bitcoin Halving or something like that, if you see the market goes up, but in the last few days we've been hearing that some countries are closing what's on Bitcoin. If you want to do it like this, the negative news that is there is what is affecting our market, so what is the up and down impression of the market The only thing that happens is from the news,

It's... actually very easy.

When all funds are posting profits, all traders also boasting green trades, when projects are all making money = bull. Hiring also increases.

If bear market happens, all the above are in red. Hiring also decreases plus even staff is cut. See 2021-2023 before price rallied to $40k. Even Binance was letting go of so much staff. And they're the biggest exchange.

See for yourself, even biggest crypto funds all lose money in bear, idiots can make money in bull.

You will only know that the market is finally experiencing a bearish season if majority of the crypto coins are suffering from 20% decline or more. Even bitcoin is not an exception. In fact, if bitcoin price drops a huge amount, most of the altcoins also suffer a huge amount of decline, seeing the crypto space in a very negative position. If that happens continuously, it’s highly possible that a bearish season is entering the market, most especially if the market has experienced a previous bullish season.

The market only evolves between bullish and bearish one. So if the market is no longer bullish, most likely a bearish season is coming to replace the current market position.

Market stuff can be tricky, but watch out for signs like big drops in trading, bad news about the economy, or shifts in regulations. Still, predicting is tough, so we should stay informed and be ready for surprises.

The crypto market is quite unpredictable and it's not easy to pinpoint exactly when bull or bear seasons will be in full swing, we just have to monitor events that can make each season to start. Now we know that Bitcoin halving will soon happen and what usually follows is bull run, so I believe that after Bitcoin ATH, when price hits the highest peak, what will follow naturally and gradually is price dump and as it gradually continues to dip, we'll be expecting bear run. That is the much that I understand about how we hit bear run, although my analysis is for long terms, short terms are more unpredictable.

We really have to be able to understand the time frame used. Between small and large time frames, you will see a different chart shape, and of course to look into the future, we look at a larger time frame so that we are not fooled by the formation of a smaller trend line and we use it as a trading transaction. On the other hand, we can use the support and resistance that occurs to confirm whether our analysis is working or not

It's really difficult to identify a bull market or bear market.
Maybe when the fear & greed index? Or once we reach all-time high then it starts dumping like almost 50%?
About the bull run, maybe when less 50% before the all-time high is already considered a bull run?
Or how many weeks/months consecutive we see red/green candle.

In fact, the price of Bitcoin is very much influenced by the news that comes to us.recently we have a big news of bitcoin halving Due to this, the price of bitcoin has been pumped up a lot. On the other hand We have ETF approval for bitcoin this news bitcoin bring up to the 49k, only the news can impact the price of bitcoin.and we all know all the market bear or bullish according to bitcoin. News is just one factor and some technical analysis on previous history also work which causes btc to up and down.

Op for the exact timeline and the timeframe there's no methodology to predict the bear market on the basis of the analysis. There is some indication about when the market can take a turn, basically, I'll try to divide it into two categories based on the market timeframe the short-term market always moves with the sentiments of the market so closely watch out for the sentiment to figure out about the market bearish moves.

On the larger time frame, you need to understand the cyclical momentum of the market and from there you can figure by analyzing the potential points based on the figures of the supply & capitalization and expected capital in the asset in the future that the market will take a major correction or not.

The only genuine way I know and use to understand the market bear is the 4-year cycle ^{(this also involves the use of historical data and it is a great hint for knowing the bear, especially during the halving year just like this year the market always replicates previous trends)}, mining difficulty, news ^{(which could be good or bad news about crypto)} , and the weekend market.
These are the major things I used to understand the bearish market. However, things may change in the future just like you said the market is unpredictable.

It's difficult to determine bearish, but the first thing we can see is the large global trading volume and look at the latest information about the market, what causes it and why that is, what I told you is only a small part of the bearish signs and there are many other factors, so it's quite difficult, trade carefully and stay abreast of market information

You need to watch out the market carefully in order to observe the difference. Let me tell you a basic difference that always happens in the market. Notice if there are more people selling the coins, then it is a sign of bear market. On the other hand if more people are buying coins and investing in it, then definitely it will lead to a bull market. This is just an example and observation. You need to watch out small hints in order to get the required details for trade.

Historically you can say that after bear market come bull run maybe it could be that we have always stick the market with halving sometimes we believed that after halving or getting close to halving we might start seeing some signs that indicates a bull run were you would start seeing bitcoin gain much price changes nd altcoin also increasing rapidly at this point we can assumed to be bull run, still can't be over emphasized or being overwhelmed about the market because we always believe bears always indicates when there is serious attack or bad news it could be hack from any reputable exchange or whatsoever. But as someone who has been in the space for long you should be able to know when the market is in bear or bull run.


This is not possible to even have the market shaken or falling to about 20 percent because if converting $20m to btc we are have ~466BTC with the current price of $42,965. So there is no day this little volume will affect the market severely and negatively.

Well, it is a misconception to say the market is always unpredictable, maybe it is the wrong use of word as the market is highly predictable, except that it is uncertain at the same time. This means that your strategy might be good but doesn't mean it will not fail you at times, and for the market to be dynamic, it means that you can never get its pattern and behave right all the time you expect it to move a certain way. Those are just the differences here, and with the right trading strategies, I am sure that you will always be a good market predictor, and some strategies even have over 90% accuracy, especially if you can combine strategies that filter one another for refined trading signals that would fail less times.

As for your question, I believe it was conceived due to the recent tragic event in the Bitcoin market where people expected it to be rising due to ETF approval. Well, it is good that we use our brain, but unfortunately, people those, particularly those that I had advised are all turning it down. My advice was that they should not believe in a widespread belief but to let their own analysis guide them. Even with halving, I will never be a blind trader/investor, I will move with the wave of the market even as my chart analysis confirms it.

As it is now, it wasn't difficult to see the bearish pattern coming into play on the daily chart, so that is enough for you to decide and for a guide. But in some market condition, the data and events could be a guide to point to the market condition as well.

Do you think if somebody sells 20 million USD worth of btc on the markets, the prices will dive 20%, globally? (because that's how we define bear markets.) I don't think so.


I don't know. I am not a technical analysis expert. You should ask the pros at trading view. They have all kinds of explanations there supporting their arguments with charts, lines and shit.

We can't!

I get why some people think crypto's too unpredictable for investing.  The market's crazy volatile, so yeah, you can totally end up disappointed.  But that dont automatically mean there's no money to make.  Hell, some people bank hard just playing the dips and peaks! 

Can't say timing it perfect's guaranteed or nothing.  But if you got the guts to risk some losses profits can get big too.  Just gotta go in knowing you win some, lose some in this game.  The markets always shifting.

If a bitcoin miner wants to invest in the next generation of ASICs and therefore sells 20 Million USD worth of bitcoin, we will probably have at least one bear day even in current volume. How would you predict that with Technical Analysis?

The best way to look at the market is with technical analysis. Then followed by some news sentiment. If the news is positive but the movement is not massive and tends to be steady then be prepared that there will be some FUD news followed by a price drop. However, this is not always correct.
The most important thing is to learn about technical techniques and types of candles/charts, this can certainly help in analyzing trends or trend changes, resistance and support levels are also very important to master.

I think some of the members' posts above have explained this in detail.