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Topic: How many Bitcoins needed to retire in 5-6 years? (Read 14028 times)

legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 11105
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
  So if you have 100 BTC and that is less than 10% of your total liquid, you must have at least $500K to $600K liquid, which, in my opinion, calls for a much different strategy than somebody who is 22 years old, just starting in the workforce, and doesn't have a ton of assets. If I were in that place, I'd swing for the fences.  I'm in mid-career and working towards an early-ish retirement.  BTC is part of that strategy, if nothing else, as an inflation hedge, but as a small part of my total portfolio.  I've got a bunch of dry powder right now, though, so I bought this morning at $528 and change and I'll buy again on dips.  I guess if we get another hard dip (which will cause me to buy) and a run to a new high, my allocation might change!

I'm in a similar age range as you mid-to-late 40s, and I have been building various classes and quantities of assets (including some assets that are more liquid than others) for 25 years-ish....

So, yes for sure age and acquisition of assets do affect strategies, and from time to time, I reconsider my investment portfolio and my risks and my redistribute within the portfolio.

Actually, I have been considering increasing my ability to travel and to maintain my income with location independence living, and there continues to be concern about the extent to which I need to work to preserve my assets or to build my assets and whether I have enough assets and income stream to maintain my lifestyle reasonably living within my means.. and the more passive the income the better.

Last fall I was considering potential ways to hedge against the dollar b/c a lot of my assets have been very tied to the success or failure of the dollar.  In November 2013, I began reading about bitcoin in this context to want to hedge against the dollar.  Not a great time to start reading about BTC, but better later than never, and surely, i am mostly inclined towards thinking that we are still amongst the "early adopters" in the BTC space.   

After doing a quick and preliminary assessment of the bitcoin situation, I started investing in BTC at the end of November 2013, at the peak of BTC prices... However, I realized that BTC prices had just experienced about a 9x appreciation within the previous few months, so accordingly, I began to invest slowly into BTC with my first purchase at just 1.24BTC.  I was cautious b/c I felt pretty confident that BTC prices could NOT keep going up at that rate, but I still wanted to get some skin in the game, just in case the exponential growth continued (I wanted to be onboard for such). 

At that point in late November 2013, I dedicated $30k to be invested over the next approximately 6 months (until May 2014), and I thought that maybe I would end up acquiring about 30 BTC-ish during that period, while front loading my investment to some extent, in order to get some skin in the BTC game.  During that time that I was making some initial investments into BTC, I continued to read up on BTC during that time and more or less stuck with my initial BTC investment plan until about mid-February 2014.   By that point (mid-2/14), I had acquired about 26BTC for less than $20K and an average buy in price of about $750.., but BTC prices continued to be in the $600 range, which was below my then $750 buy-in average.  Accordingly, I decided to UP the amount that I was allocating towards my BTC investments b/c I had been learning more about BTC in the preceding months and I had been gaining increased confidence in its various fundamentals (including adoption, regulations, liquidity, investments,  news coverage and other factors).  

As we may recall that in late February 2014 and in mid-April 2014, BTC had two price crashes (to the $400s and into the mid-$300s respectively).   By one point in May 2014, I was able to bring down my average BTC buy-in price to $595 (including transaction fees); however, my current average BTC buy-in price is about $610.  

I do continue to buy on dips to the extent that I can attempt to figure out the dips, and I have fiat available and dedicated to buying BTC.  I try to keep some on reserve fiat on hand to be able to continue to buy on dips, but it becomes easy for me to run out of fiat when BTC prices are crashing and if I had already bought some BTC at a higher level during the crash (that I thought may have been the bottom).  

Of course, we attempt to buy on the price dips.. but who knows for sure the extent and duration to which the BTC price dips are gonna be, yet in the long run, it seems that it will NOT matter too much b/c BTC seems pretty likely and posed to have another exponential increase in price.. which will likely make up for the much sloppiness in attempting to accumulate more of it.  So, instead of acquiring 354 BTC, a person may ONLY have acquired 320 BTC, but in the end, it may NOT matter too much.. whether it was the higher or the lower amount of BTC in the portfolio.. especially if BTC happens to have one or two more exponential growth periods.





 
sr. member
Activity: 364
Merit: 250


In the end, with BTC, it seems like we likely need to tailor our plan to our own circumstances and risk tolerance and assumptions and then to continue to monitor our plan as the space presumably continues to grow and develop.




Totally agree with this.  So if you have 100 BTC and that is less than 10% of your total liquid, you must have at least $500K to $600K liquid, which, in my opinion, calls for a much different strategy than somebody who is 22 years old, just starting in the workforce, and doesn't have a ton of assets.  If I were in that place, I'd swing for the fences.  I'm in mid-career and working towards an early-ish retirement.  BTC is part of that strategy, if nothing else, as an inflation hedge, but as a small part of my total portfolio.  I've got a bunch of dry powder right now, though, so I bought this morning at $528 and change and I'll buy again on dips.  I guess if we get another hard dip (which will cause me to buy) and a run to a new high, my allocation might change!
legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1090
Learning the troll avoidance button :)
In your opinion how many Bitcoins would someone need today in order to retire by August 03 2019 or Aug 03 2020?

Assume average North American, requiring $30,000 per year of today's purchasing power, no other debt.

I still think it will be 100 to retire in comfort and be very well off
Any more and you start looking at far more than retirement but owning multiple properties around the world.
Although 7 years is still a ways away so the path to that price estimate will be interesting.
hero member
Activity: 714
Merit: 503
I think 100 btc would be great
obviously it depends on the age and the properties of each person
legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 11105
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Thanks for the response... and NO problem...    I otherwise appreciate your post and your providing reasoning for your conclusion(s)..   

Definitely it is a good thing to hear differing perspectives. 

From time to time, I have described more conservative scenarios of modest 15% or less BTC appreciation per year; however, those kinds of scenarios seem way too bearish in light of the totality of BTC's fundamentals and history.  In this regard, I tend to believe that if BTC appreciates less than 15% per year, then there is likely going to be a turning away from BTC and a conclusion that BTC has failed.


I mean really, think about a 15% per year scenario over the next 6 years of savings (starting with today's $570 price), and then think of another 15% per year projection of appreciation of BTC value as you attempt to live off of your coins.   

Year 1 (2015)  = $655.50
Year 2 (2016)  = $753.83
Year 3 (2017)  = $866.90
Year 4 (2018)  = $996.93
Year 5 (2019)  = $1,146.47
Year 6 (2020)  = $1,318.44

Don't get me wrong, this 15% is NOT a bad rate of return (compared to other traditional investments); however, you would probably need around 354 BTC (valued at $467,141 in 2020 to maintain a $30k per year withdrawal rate in today's dollars - given a continued 15% per year BTC appreciation rate.   

As I posted above (https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.8205979):  Continuing to assume a 4% per year inflation rate, a 15% per year BTC appreciation rate and a withdrawal rate of about 8% per year.  I think that you would mostly be able to maintain and build your BTC principle holdings (in dollar value), while beginning to withdraw BTC in 2021.

Withdrawal year 1 (2021) = BTC price $1,516.21 =   withdrawal amount = $39,478  =  BTC withdrawal 26.04 =   BTC in portfolio = 328.27

Withdrawal year 2 (2022) = BTC price $1,743.64 =   withdrawal amount = $41,057 =  BTC withdrawal 23.55 =   BTC in portfolio = 304.73

Withdrawal year 3 (2023) = BTC price $2,005.19 =   withdrawal amount  = $42,699=  BTC withdrawal 21.29 =   BTC in portfolio = 283.43

Withdrawal year 4 (2024) = BTC price $2,305.97 =   withdrawal amount = $44,407=  BTC withdrawal 19.26 =   BTC in portfolio = 264.18

Withdrawal year 5 (2025) = BTC price $2,651.86=   withdrawal amount = $46,184=  BTC withdrawal 17.42=   BTC in portfolio = 246.76

Withdrawal year 6 (2026) = BTC price $3,049.64=   withdrawal amount = $48,031=  BTC withdrawal 15.75 =   BTC in portfolio = 231.01

I think all of this is doable, reasonable and decent b/c in 2020, the dollar value of your portfolio would be $467,141, and in 2026, even after withdrawing for 6 years, the dollar value of your BTC portfolio would be $704,501.

However, I believe that BTC is much more bullish than a 15% per year appreciation rate, but it is possible to plan with such a conservative BTC appreciation rate and to merely take advantage of a greater BTC appreciation if one gets lucky to experience a few bubbles that are much greater than 15%.




Now THAT is a well done analysis!  Nice work!

So if I had $201,780, I could go buy 354 BTC today.  If BTC were to rise 15% per year, then starting in 2020, I could take the prescribed withdrawals and, you're right, I could have a growing fiat amount in perpetuity...or at least, as long as BTC continued to rise 15% per year.

Very well done.

For what it's worth, I actually could buy 354 BTC right now (well, it might take me a week to move around some money).  And it is worth considering!  The only pesky problem is that the 15% would have to continue pretty much forever, or for at least 30+ years.  I'm 46.  If I stop working at 52 with $466K and change, I'd need that 15% to continue pretty predictably.  If BTC is inconsistent...what happens in 2022 if BTC isn't $1743 on the date I need to withdraw, but instead, it's $871?  Then I need to withdraw 200% more, which reduces my stash.  I could survive that once, but it's a risky proposition!  I'm also pretty much banking on a BTC rise to about $37,740 in the next 30 years.  I need it to be that when I'm 25 years into retirement AND I'm also banking on the fact that that will have enough purchasing power, either in BTC or fiat, to buy me a loaf of bread.  I've got a 2 year old (yeah, had my only kid at the age of 44) that I need to think about, as well.  

It's a solid analysis and it definitely meets the original criteria, though.  And it's actually, in theory, possible for me to do!  But I think I'll just be thankful that I actually like my job for now!




I came to my above numbers by plugging the various assumptions into an Excel spreadsheet.  If you know about Excel spreadsheets, you could input these kinds of various assumptions into your own Excel spreadsheet and then play around with the variables (and the assumptions), including the timeline and including tweaking the year by year growth.. and maybe even convert into a quarter by quarter monitoring or month by month monitoring.

I would NOT necessarily suggest purchasing 354BTC at the moment, unless you feel that your other liquid investment assets are sufficiently diversified in order to tolerate such a weighting of your allocations towards BTC...

In other words, it is likely that you would NOT want to place all (or most) of your eggs into the one basket that has a number of assumptions that may NOT play out...

Yet, on the other hand, if BTC experiences exponential growth in any of the earlier years (or quarters) within the next 6 years, for example, you may be able to withdraw early a portion of your BTC holdings in order to diversify and to better protect against downside risk and maybe even reinvest at a later date (on the dips) a portions of your withdrawn fiat back into BTC.


By the way, from my own personal investment into BTC, I have a little different plan than the one that I outlined above.  I have a pretty good chunk of BTC (well over 100BTC); however, BTC occupies less than 10% of my total quasi-liquid financial holdings... but currently, I am investing a large quantity of new money into BTC.  I am anticipating some BTC bubbles in the future, which will cause me to reconsider the percentages allocation towards BTC.  Though currently, I am NOT really opposed to allowing my percentage allocation towards BTC to increase to a considerable quantity so long as the growth in the weighting of the investment towards BTC prices has been caused by the appreciation of BTC prices, rather than caused by my putting more fiat into it..... and so long as I consider the BTC fundamentals to remain strong in the present and into the future projection of what seems to be happening in the BTC space (such as adoption rate increasing and investment rate increasing and liquidation opportunities increasing).

In the end, with BTC, it seems like we likely need to tailor our plan to our own circumstances and risk tolerance and assumptions and then to continue to monitor our plan as the space presumably continues to grow and develop.




legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 11105
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
I just talked to a economics Phd and we analyzed some stats surrounding BTC. We made some good/worst case scenarios and took the average of those scenarios.

Our price prediction for 2020 = 10,750 USD Wink

That seems on the slightly high side of reasonable to me.  My last number-crunching was for 2019.  I came in around $2340.  If I had shot for 2020-2022, I could have easily come up with $5000 to $10,000.  Just a couple of simple changes would put us pretty close, especially given the extra year in your calculation.

I could show my work, but maybe the easier thing to do would be to use this as a basis: http://honestnode.com/bitcoin-fair-value-a-first-assessment/

My number is significantly different, because:
--He used each of the possible value centers as an additive element.  But he included a random, unsupported M2 calculation, which I think, accounts for all the other stuff.  It shouldn't have been additive.
--I believe the M2 calculations really hit the essence of BTC value.
--I'd say the author massively overstated BTC in the remittance market
--In my view, his velocity calculations on BTC were incorrect, likely because he used mining transactions in his velocity calculations..

I'm not sure why I am posting something semi-serious in this thread, though, because it has devolved into a ridiculous parody of bitcoiners.  If anybody REALLY thinks they can buy $14,500 worth of bitcoins today at $580 and retire on JUST that in 5-6 years (even with a paltry $30K annual income, which, by the way, is preposterous retirement "planning"), they are delusional.  

Yes, you can quote me.  Feel free to refer to this post in 2020.  

This sub forum's predictions have become a manic-depressive joke.  When bitcoin was flying high back in Nov 2013, everyone was convinced the price would hit 10K by the end of 2014.  All the TA, trendline charts, predictions, and polls were all screaming the same mantra.  Now that we've been in a bear market for some time, everyone has turned a complete 180 degree bear/pessimist, and now is pushing out their 10K prediction to at least 2020 or later, at least 6-10 years from now.  Fkn hilarious.

I'm sure when bitcoin starts flying high again, possibly end of this year or early 2015, everyone will be utterly convinced AGAIN that it'll hit 10K by mid or end of 2015.  And they'll all be saying "I told you so!" but it will be the SAME people here today making their pessimistic 2020+ predictions.   Roll Eyes  

If you are referring to any of my posts in this thread as being among the pessimistic ones, I am just "playing along" with fairly conservative posts to show the numbers for such conservative but steady BTC increases within the posts - even though I tend to be much more bullish regarding my thoughts about the potential for exponential BTC price appreciation. 

NONETHELESS, I remain of the belief that we cannot necessarily bank on the more bullish and exponential price scenario taking place - even though we can put ourselves in a position to profit considerably from a more bullish scenario were it to occur.
Buo
member
Activity: 112
Merit: 10
In 5-6 years the value of bitcoin could be 1 million or 1 dollar, in my opinion is totally unpredictable.
sr. member
Activity: 364
Merit: 250

Thanks for the response... and NO problem...    I otherwise appreciate your post and your providing reasoning for your conclusion(s)..   

Definitely it is a good thing to hear differing perspectives. 

From time to time, I have described more conservative scenarios of modest 15% or less BTC appreciation per year; however, those kinds of scenarios seem way too bearish in light of the totality of BTC's fundamentals and history.  In this regard, I tend to believe that if BTC appreciates less than 15% per year, then there is likely going to be a turning away from BTC and a conclusion that BTC has failed.


I mean really, think about a 15% per year scenario over the next 6 years of savings (starting with today's $570 price), and then think of another 15% per year projection of appreciation of BTC value as you attempt to live off of your coins.   

Year 1 (2015)  = $655.50
Year 2 (2016)  = $753.83
Year 3 (2017)  = $866.90
Year 4 (2018)  = $996.93
Year 5 (2019)  = $1,146.47
Year 6 (2020)  = $1,318.44

Don't get me wrong, this 15% is NOT a bad rate of return (compared to other traditional investments); however, you would probably need around 354 BTC (valued at $467,141 in 2020 to maintain a $30k per year withdrawal rate in today's dollars - given a continued 15% per year BTC appreciation rate.   

As I posted above (https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.8205979):  Continuing to assume a 4% per year inflation rate, a 15% per year BTC appreciation rate and a withdrawal rate of about 8% per year.  I think that you would mostly be able to maintain and build your BTC principle holdings (in dollar value), while beginning to withdraw BTC in 2021.

Withdrawal year 1 (2021) = BTC price $1,516.21 =   withdrawal amount = $39,478  =  BTC withdrawal 26.04 =   BTC in portfolio = 328.27

Withdrawal year 2 (2022) = BTC price $1,743.64 =   withdrawal amount = $41,057 =  BTC withdrawal 23.55 =   BTC in portfolio = 304.73

Withdrawal year 3 (2023) = BTC price $2,005.19 =   withdrawal amount  = $42,699=  BTC withdrawal 21.29 =   BTC in portfolio = 283.43

Withdrawal year 4 (2024) = BTC price $2,305.97 =   withdrawal amount = $44,407=  BTC withdrawal 19.26 =   BTC in portfolio = 264.18

Withdrawal year 5 (2025) = BTC price $2,651.86=   withdrawal amount = $46,184=  BTC withdrawal 17.42=   BTC in portfolio = 246.76

Withdrawal year 6 (2026) = BTC price $3,049.64=   withdrawal amount = $48,031=  BTC withdrawal 15.75 =   BTC in portfolio = 231.01

I think all of this is doable, reasonable and decent b/c in 2020, the dollar value of your portfolio would be $467,141, and in 2026, even after withdrawing for 6 years, the dollar value of your BTC portfolio would be $704,501.

However, I believe that BTC is much more bullish than a 15% per year appreciation rate, but it is possible to plan with such a conservative BTC appreciation rate and to merely take advantage of a greater BTC appreciation if one gets lucky to experience a few bubbles that are much greater than 15%.




Now THAT is a well done analysis!  Nice work!

So if I had $201,780, I could go buy 354 BTC today.  If BTC were to rise 15% per year, then starting in 2020, I could take the prescribed withdrawals and, you're right, I could have a growing fiat amount in perpetuity...or at least, as long as BTC continued to rise 15% per year.

Very well done.

For what it's worth, I actually could buy 354 BTC right now (well, it might take me a week to move around some money).  And it is worth considering!  The only pesky problem is that the 15% would have to continue pretty much forever, or for at least 30+ years.  I'm 46.  If I stop working at 52 with $466K and change, I'd need that 15% to continue pretty predictably.  If BTC is inconsistent...what happens in 2022 if BTC isn't $1743 on the date I need to withdraw, but instead, it's $871?  Then I need to withdraw 200% more, which reduces my stash.  I could survive that once, but it's a risky proposition!  I'm also pretty much banking on a BTC rise to about $37,740 in the next 30 years.  I need it to be that when I'm 25 years into retirement AND I'm also banking on the fact that that will have enough purchasing power, either in BTC or fiat, to buy me a loaf of bread.  I've got a 2 year old (yeah, had my only kid at the age of 44) that I need to think about, as well.  

It's a solid analysis and it definitely meets the original criteria, though.  And it's actually, in theory, possible for me to do!  But I think I'll just be thankful that I actually like my job for now!

legendary
Activity: 3710
Merit: 5286
I just talked to a economics Phd and we analyzed some stats surrounding BTC. We made some good/worst case scenarios and took the average of those scenarios.

Our price prediction for 2020 = 10,750 USD Wink

That seems on the slightly high side of reasonable to me.  My last number-crunching was for 2019.  I came in around $2340.  If I had shot for 2020-2022, I could have easily come up with $5000 to $10,000.  Just a couple of simple changes would put us pretty close, especially given the extra year in your calculation.

I could show my work, but maybe the easier thing to do would be to use this as a basis: http://honestnode.com/bitcoin-fair-value-a-first-assessment/

My number is significantly different, because:
--He used each of the possible value centers as an additive element.  But he included a random, unsupported M2 calculation, which I think, accounts for all the other stuff.  It shouldn't have been additive.
--I believe the M2 calculations really hit the essence of BTC value.
--I'd say the author massively overstated BTC in the remittance market
--In my view, his velocity calculations on BTC were incorrect, likely because he used mining transactions in his velocity calculations..

I'm not sure why I am posting something semi-serious in this thread, though, because it has devolved into a ridiculous parody of bitcoiners.  If anybody REALLY thinks they can buy $14,500 worth of bitcoins today at $580 and retire on JUST that in 5-6 years (even with a paltry $30K annual income, which, by the way, is preposterous retirement "planning"), they are delusional.  

Yes, you can quote me.  Feel free to refer to this post in 2020.  

This sub forum's predictions have become a manic-depressive joke.  When bitcoin was flying high back in Nov 2013, everyone was convinced the price would hit 10K by the end of 2014.  All the TA, trendline charts, predictions, and polls were all screaming the same mantra.  Now that we've been in a bear market for some time, everyone has turned a complete 180 degree bear/pessimist, and now is pushing out their 10K prediction to at least 2020 or later, at least 6-10 years from now.  Fkn hilarious.

I'm sure when bitcoin starts flying high again, possibly end of this year or early 2015, everyone will be utterly convinced AGAIN that it'll hit 10K by mid or end of 2015.  And they'll all be saying "I told you so!" but it will be the SAME people here today making their pessimistic 2020+ predictions.   Roll Eyes  
newbie
Activity: 40
Merit: 0
I've just bought half bitcoin, I'll hold it long term but I don't think it will ever reach millions of $ in value...
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
Just a wild guess here, but to retire in 5-6 years you should have the following amount of BTC:

enough, so instead of asking these silly questions, you should go buy some, so that you will have enough.
full member
Activity: 210
Merit: 100
Invest & Earn: https://cloudthink.io
i would say till 2020, you would need 66.6666 BTC. But what you plan to do then with them? If you keep them well invested you need much less.
legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 11105
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"


You may be correct that we need to be more realistic and less bullish; however, to characterize various more bullish scenarios as a ridiculous parody seems to aim at insulting us rather than attempting to accept that other people have differing perspectives and calculations... In the end, you may be correct, but that does NOT really mean that you have any more realistic and meaningful perspective than the large majority of other posters in this thread.  And, that "art are holier than thou" seems to be the overall tone that you are projecting in your above post.

JayJuanGee, I apologize for my post.  I certainly did not mean to project myself as being holier than anybody.  Buddha knows that my own inventory is pretty far from perfect. 

I was certainly offering a different perspective...and maybe busting balls a little too much.  But I would never intentionally hold myself out on an anonymous forum (or hopefully anywhere) as being better than anybody.

I'm sorry to JJG and to anybody who took offense.  If I ever offend you again, please just read the post in the voice of a slightly drunken pirate, staggering around a little bit and with no inhibitions due to the rum.


Thanks for the response... and NO problem...    I otherwise appreciate your post and your providing reasoning for your conclusion(s)..   

Definitely it is a good thing to hear differing perspectives. 

From time to time, I have described more conservative scenarios of modest 15% or less BTC appreciation per year; however, those kinds of scenarios seem way too bearish in light of the totality of BTC's fundamentals and history.  In this regard, I tend to believe that if BTC appreciates less than 15% per year, then there is likely going to be a turning away from BTC and a conclusion that BTC has failed.


I mean really, think about a 15% per year scenario over the next 6 years of savings (starting with today's $570 price), and then think of another 15% per year projection of appreciation of BTC value as you attempt to live off of your coins.   

Year 1 (2015)  = $655.50
Year 2 (2016)  = $753.83
Year 3 (2017)  = $866.90
Year 4 (2018)  = $996.93
Year 5 (2019)  = $1,146.47
Year 6 (2020)  = $1,318.44

Don't get me wrong, this 15% is NOT a bad rate of return (compared to other traditional investments); however, you would probably need around 354 BTC (valued at $467,141 in 2020 to maintain a $30k per year withdrawal rate in today's dollars - given a continued 15% per year BTC appreciation rate.   

As I posted above (https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.8205979):  Continuing to assume a 4% per year inflation rate, a 15% per year BTC appreciation rate and a withdrawal rate of about 8% per year.  I think that you would mostly be able to maintain and build your BTC principle holdings (in dollar value), while beginning to withdraw BTC in 2021.

Withdrawal year 1 (2021) = BTC price $1,516.21 =   withdrawal amount = $39,478  =  BTC withdrawal 26.04 =   BTC in portfolio = 328.27

Withdrawal year 2 (2022) = BTC price $1,743.64 =   withdrawal amount = $41,057 =  BTC withdrawal 23.55 =   BTC in portfolio = 304.73

Withdrawal year 3 (2023) = BTC price $2,005.19 =   withdrawal amount  = $42,699=  BTC withdrawal 21.29 =   BTC in portfolio = 283.43

Withdrawal year 4 (2024) = BTC price $2,305.97 =   withdrawal amount = $44,407=  BTC withdrawal 19.26 =   BTC in portfolio = 264.18

Withdrawal year 5 (2025) = BTC price $2,651.86=   withdrawal amount = $46,184=  BTC withdrawal 17.42=   BTC in portfolio = 246.76

Withdrawal year 6 (2026) = BTC price $3,049.64=   withdrawal amount = $48,031=  BTC withdrawal 15.75 =   BTC in portfolio = 231.01

I think all of this is doable, reasonable and decent b/c in 2020, the dollar value of your portfolio would be $467,141, and in 2026, even after withdrawing for 6 years, the dollar value of your BTC portfolio would be $704,501.

However, I believe that BTC is much more bullish than a 15% per year appreciation rate, but it is possible to plan with such a conservative BTC appreciation rate and to merely take advantage of a greater BTC appreciation if one gets lucky to experience a few bubbles that are much greater than 15%.





sr. member
Activity: 364
Merit: 250


You may be correct that we need to be more realistic and less bullish; however, to characterize various more bullish scenarios as a ridiculous parody seems to aim at insulting us rather than attempting to accept that other people have differing perspectives and calculations... In the end, you may be correct, but that does NOT really mean that you have any more realistic and meaningful perspective than the large majority of other posters in this thread.  And, that "art are holier than thou" seems to be the overall tone that you are projecting in your above post.

JayJuanGee, I apologize for my post.  I certainly did not mean to project myself as being holier than anybody.  Buddha knows that my own inventory is pretty far from perfect. 

I was certainly offering a different perspective...and maybe busting balls a little too much.  But I would never intentionally hold myself out on an anonymous forum (or hopefully anywhere) as being better than anybody.

I'm sorry to JJG and to anybody who took offense.  If I ever offend you again, please just read the post in the voice of a slightly drunken pirate, staggering around a little bit and with no inhibitions due to the rum.
legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 11105
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
I'd bet that 1 BTC could be worth $25,000 - $100,000 in 5-6 years (At todays USD value of course). So, do the math from there.
Those numbers will be MUCH higher if the banking system goes as it looks like it might. (If it goes, start multiplying those number by 10 for a start.)
A big IF is if these criminals don't start another big war. Sure looks like they are trying...

Anything more than I need to live relatively simply, is going to be given away (for helping /and/ further distruption),
After all,
Its about sharing



+1    I appreciate your sense of civic responsibility..
legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 11105
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
I just talked to a economics Phd and we analyzed some stats surrounding BTC. We made some good/worst case scenarios and took the average of those scenarios.

Our price prediction for 2020 = 10,750 USD Wink

That seems on the slightly high side of reasonable to me.  My last number-crunching was for 2019.  I came in around $2340.  If I had shot for 2020-2022, I could have easily come up with $5000 to $10,000.  Just a couple of simple changes would put us pretty close, especially given the extra year in your calculation.

I could show my work, but maybe the easier thing to do would be to use this as a basis: http://honestnode.com/bitcoin-fair-value-a-first-assessment/

My number is significantly different, because:
--He used each of the possible value centers as an additive element.  But he included a random, unsupported M2 calculation, which I think, accounts for all the other stuff.  It shouldn't have been additive.
--I believe the M2 calculations really hit the essence of BTC value.
--I'd say the author massively overstated BTC in the remittance market
--In my view, his velocity calculations on BTC were incorrect, likely because he used mining transactions in his velocity calculations..

I'm not sure why I am posting something semi-serious in this thread, though, because it has devolved into a ridiculous parody of bitcoiners.  If anybody REALLY thinks they can buy $14,500 worth of bitcoins today at $580 and retire on JUST that in 5-6 years (even with a paltry $30K annual income, which, by the way, is preposterous retirement "planning"), they are delusional. 

Yes, you can quote me.  Feel free to refer to this post in 2020. 


You may be correct that we need to be more realistic and less bullish; however, to characterize various more bullish scenarios as a ridiculous parody seems to aim at insulting us rather than attempting to accept that other people have differing perspectives and calculations... In the end, you may be correct, but that does NOT really mean that you have any more realistic and meaningful perspective than the large majority of other posters in this thread.  And, that "art are holier than thou" seems to be the overall tone that you are projecting in your above post.
legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 11105
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
it is never enough with bitcoin


And?Huh? explain yourself.     Huh   
legendary
Activity: 1442
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Antifragile
I'd bet that 1 BTC could be worth $25,000 - $100,000 in 5-6 years (At todays USD value of course). So, do the math from there.
Those numbers will be MUCH higher if the banking system goes as it looks like it might. (If it goes, start multiplying those number by 10 for a start.)
A big IF is if these criminals don't start another big war. Sure looks like they are trying...

Anything more than I need to live relatively simply, is going to be given away (for helping /and/ further distruption),
After all,
Its about sharing

legendary
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Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
Maybe if bitcoin will drop after 2016 you will need 5000 btc to retire, everthing can happen...

it can also skyrocket to 100k after the first block reward, and you will only need 10, but that is a bit pretentious, from both sides
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 500
21 bitcoins, 1 millionth. Is my magic number. Cheesy

Or any 10x of that Tongue
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