Topic: How many Bitcoins needed to retire in 5-6 years? - page 2. (Read 14028 times)

Maybe if bitcoin will drop after 2016 you will need 5000 btc to retire, everthing can happen...

That seems on the slightly high side of reasonable to me.  My last number-crunching was for 2019.  I came in around $2340.  If I had shot for 2020-2022, I could have easily come up with $5000 to $10,000.  Just a couple of simple changes would put us pretty close, especially given the extra year in your calculation.

I could show my work, but maybe the easier thing to do would be to use this as a basis: http://honestnode.com/bitcoin-fair-value-a-first-assessment/

My number is significantly different, because:
--He used each of the possible value centers as an additive element.  But he included a random, unsupported M2 calculation, which I think, accounts for all the other stuff.  It shouldn't have been additive.
--I believe the M2 calculations really hit the essence of BTC value.
--I'd say the author massively overstated BTC in the remittance market
--In my view, his velocity calculations on BTC were incorrect, likely because he used mining transactions in his velocity calculations..

I'm not sure why I am posting something semi-serious in this thread, though, because it has devolved into a ridiculous parody of bitcoiners.  If anybody REALLY thinks they can buy $14,500 worth of bitcoins today at $580 and retire on JUST that in 5-6 years (even with a paltry $30K annual income, which, by the way, is preposterous retirement "planning"), they are delusional. 

Yes, you can quote me.  Feel free to refer to this post in 2020. 

it is never enough with bitcoin

Totally agree with you there - I've been surprised by BTC constantly, and it's consistently exceeded "realistic" expectations of mine on quite a few occasions.  I hope I'm wrong again haha!

Yeah, you could be right. But I tend to be uber-bullish at times. The whole Bitcoin scene just has something exciting about it. It's like back in the good old 80s man, everything's in motion and about to explode upwards on the charts!

I'm bullish on BTC, but more than 3 (maaaaaybe 4) bubbles in the next 5 years seems unlikely, given current awareness and such a short timeline.   

Ummm I think in 5 years, you'll be good with about 11 BTC or so... We'll see 3-7 bubbles by then and should be headed to $150000 USD by then... Which would be enough to retire. Maybe not with a mansion, but you'll be fine. But don't take my word for it, only speculation

Wilhelm:   It is good that we are NOT relying upon your math....        I calculate 2020 to be 6 years from NOW, not 16 years from now.    

By the way, the $10,750 estimate seems a little bearish to me, too... given BTC's history and totality of circumstances, including slipperyslope's theory of exponential growth during the adoption phase.. and NO reason to believe that we are NOT currently in the midst of adoption.... even in early adoption regarding BTC.

so 225-25000 then

"Are you kidding me? I have to wait 6 years for 10k? No way, we're going to the moon this year!" -the average HODLer around here.

The known price history of Bitcoin is roughly 4 years. You're attempting to predict 16 years ahead?

I still like the prediction though but would expect something halvings to have happened and the price could easily go above 10k.

10750 sounds low to me

$10750 in 2020 sounds possible, although it is 63% per year on average, which is much higher than any asset class.
Could happen if we hit another bubble or super bubble. In the latter case, $10750 would be a trough after $35000-50000 super bubble.

Ok... thanks... I look forward to seeing your work.. if you decide to let us see it....

Those were the averages of different best/worst case approaches. Not the range of the absolute amounts.

Your best case scenarios seem fairly bearish (b/c BTC has possibilities to go into the $100K range in the next 6 years), and your worst case scenarios do NOT seem to take into account the possibility of BTC going to zero, which is a real possibility, sorry to speak the truth...   So ultimately, if you are NOT accounting for all of the scenarios, then your prediction is likely off, even if you are receiving the assistance and input of an economist phd.

Yes, I might upload it tomorrow after formating it.

I do NOT necessarily disagree with your reasoning, here.  That is NOT a bad amount - let's say $250 set aside towards BTC per month.  ONLY you are in the position to assess the totality of your financial circumstances.

Actually, I remember in the 80s, I used to buy $100 to $200 per month in US Savings bonds, as a potentially secure means to set aside extra money.. however, I was in NO way as bullish as you about my savings/investment b/c I already knew what the rate of my return was going to be and that my money was going to be locked up for at least 5 years (something like that).  I did NOT have access to such potential investments like bitcoin... so I am NOT sure what I would have done had I known about such a thing like bitcoin when I had that quantity of money to invest... I may have attempted to figure out a way to set aside more money b/c of the upside potential. 

We each have to come to our own resolution regarding how to proceed towards our investment(s), and if $250 per month is all that you feel that you can reasonably do, then so be it.

Care to show your work?

Now I get your angle.

Yes, the average was around 10750.

Best cases ranged from 15000-25000 USD
Worst cases from 225 USD - 900 USD