Topic: I give up - page 12. (Read 22635 times)

OP, if you're still reading this thread:

Your goal of making gains on bitcoin to change your life is a good one. But you should look at your bitcoin as a medium-term gamble instead of a short-term sure thing.

Personally I still think there's a lot of upside in bitcoin over the next few years. If you agree, consider this strategy:

1. Figure out how much money you need to bring about the change you want. $10k? $25k?
2. Figure out how much you can afford to bet on this gamble and buy that amount of bitcoin. Move them to offline storage.
3. Consider that money gone permanently, as if you had spent it on a vacation, or lottery tickets, or whatever. It's not "invested", it's gone.
4. Continue to live your life. Check your bitcoin holdings once in a while, not too often.
5. If your bitcoin has reached your goal value from step 1, sell immediately. YOU WIN!
6. If not, wait a couple months and check again.

While you're waiting, look for other ways to achieve your goals without bitcoin.

I can agree that it may be possible to predict movements in this market once you get a good feel of it, but only on a long intervals - like a year long; I didn't see (m)any people making profit doing daily trading here, only some pros on midterm (month-long) trends. For the rest, and that includes 99% of everybody else, long term holding is a much more financially solid advice; selling a little into rallies (like november) buying after crashes (like now) to make some profit.

You still never had to sell below your buying price; if you do, it means you are doing something wrong.

Technical Analysis, while probabilistic, can more often than not give you fairly accurate price targets and predictions. As long as you account for this probabilistic nature and have reasonable margins of error, there's a good chance you can use the analysis to make a profit. Especially, as Mat (I think?) so eloquently put it, in such a sentiment-driven market filled with noobs and clueless "hodlers" as Bitcoin, making price movements all the more predictable

I did make a shit ton of money at first. I never even knew what a MACD was back then but now realise that in an inflating market, the odds are in the traders favour to make money. Since Bitcoin went into recession, I made a few big wins but would eat away into my profits with lots of silly impulse driven trades, usually leveraged short and long. My most recent trade, a leveraged short right on cusp of manipulated short squeeze...was a kick in the teeth. Bitcoin has since touched my break even level on that short trade as I knew it would, but also strayed 65 cents beyond my position liquidation level. For 2014, I have to confess that I am now well into net loss territory in Bitcoin.

Trading in inflating market = easy

Trading in deflating market = hard

So there you have it. I am not a great trader and trading is something that I am going to have to quit. What I do have is an ability to tune into a Bitcoin on an intuitive level. This entails taking a long position and 'sleeping on it'. 9 times out of 10, within a couple of nights I will get a dream or intuitions will otherwise come to me on the pending fate of Bitcoin. Last time I done this was when Bitcoin was at $490:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.6361758

Intellect, FOMO, and consequently mal-influenced TA was telling me that break out to upper $500s could be on the cards, so I bought in. Subconscious intuition brought me out and same price level the following day. Bitcoin has since fallen up to $70 lower and is currently $45 lower than my cash out price point.

EDIT: I noticed you dug up a post of mine from April 2013. Well done. I refuted that $100 Bitcoin was a fire sale price. What price was Bitcoin 2-3 months down the line? $60? So even that I got right, albeit only through a fluke as back then, all my Bitcoins were for Silk Road. Wasn't 'invested' in it a single bit. Didn't have the slightest clue about markets or investing back then.

Haha, I remember that guy from trollbox. He was successfully trolled by LitecoinVictim aka fonzie. I hope he didn't sell, I was advising him not to do it then.

Can't wait to see your face when the value hits $1,000/BTC again.

Mat is known for his dead on predictions, like this one here:


I was trying to find the post where you claimed that you are a pro and made shit ton of money, but can't. Did you delete it Mat? Too bad. Anyway, good luck next time Don't forget to get on the train.

So Mat, what do you think will happen after it hits $200, where will it go next in your opinion?

How do you know? The whole point is that nobody knows exactly how the far it goes, both ways; but from below it's limited by $0, so upside is much higher. It still makes more sense to hold through a temporary loss than to get left behind.

I don't regret it.

I never pretended I was a Pro Trader. I may have stated that I 'knew' Bitcoin was going down. But as I have made clear many times. Anytime I 'know' something about Bitcoin, then it is cos I dreamt it.

Right now I 'think' Bitcoin is going to $200 range. But that isn't the same as knowing that it is.

Thankyou Please.

Though I am far from a pro trader, I know that is not entirely true. There is such a thing as cutting your losses.

Example, if you bought at $600, price is falling and you know it will hit $300 before a bounce, it is better to sell at $500 and buy back closer to floor than hold all the way.

Of course if you don't know/have an idea of where price will go it is better to hold, as there's a large chance you'll miss the knife entirely that way and only make your losses worse. But for a decently competent analyst, cutting your losses and making the best of the situation is better than stubbornly holding throughout and refusing to sell at a loss.

Mat calm down, take your pills and a cold shower, you are reacting like a child who caught his dad dressing as Santa. I still stand by every word I wrote then. You just never sell bitcoin cheaper than you bought it, because you will regret it later. The only reason I even started giving you advice is because you pretended that you are a pro trader when you arrived, obviously I understand now that it's not true. My advice to noobs in trading, like OP and you, would be only one - stay out until you understand what you are doing. And if bought already, hold tight.

That is, by the way, also what I said to you when you were getting out at $200 in November saying that it will never go any higher and will implode any moment because of . You lost about 600k usd of unrealized profit on that trade alone, provided you said the truth that you cashed out 100k then. So if I were you, I'd listen to me more closely instead of going into denial.

People can choose to take whatever advice they want, it can come from piramida or jr65 or anyone in between.  Such advice may or may not work out well.  In the end we're all adults, and if I hodl through a crash or sell before a bubble, it's my own damn fault, not those guys.

AHEM!



"if you just blindly follow someone's advice you are destined to doubt, fear, and consequential losses."

If I may direct everyones attention to the highlighted text from piramida below. A Post he made when Bitcoin was still trading in $1000 range on Stamp and I was selling some Bitcoins at a loss.


Piramida is of course far from being alone in this sort of delusional thinking, but this is representative of the sort of advice that is in perpetual gross surplus on Bitcoin Nutter forums like this and noobs have to be on perpetual guard against.

I really believe in what bitcoin has to offer. However, if the governments crack down hard on it, it may never realise its potential

Because if you really believe that it will be worth (much) more in the end, it's not even doubling down, it's just getting bargain buy-in prices. Unfortunately, you first have to believe, and to believe, you have to understand; so if you just blindly follow someone's advice you are destined to doubt, fear, and consequential losses. That's why I would not recommend for OP to ever buy bitcoin as an investment before (s)he understands.

If you're a long term investor who doesn't daytrade why wouldn't you take the chance to average down when possible? Unless ofcourse you've already reached the limit of how much capital you were willing to risk. It's like dollar cost averaging but instead of investing a certain amount at fixed time intervals you're just waiting for dips to buy more to lower your average buy price. Don't see anything wrong with that, but I wouldn't use this strategy for any other type of investment though so Bitcoin is kind of unique in this respect I think.

No, they can't. All they can shout is HODL and give cherry picked examples of how the bear trend is over and Bitcoin is about to go through the roof. Exact same thing as they have done all the way down from the OP buy-in price in the $900 range, as I am sure she is painfully aware off.


Sorry, but you have little more than 6-8 weeks for Bitcoin to hit $5000, otherwise Bitcoin proves how wrong you were.

My call that got laughed off the forum when I first made it was Bitcoin to $200 range. We have already came within $40 of that coming good and the night is yet young.


@ OP:

Listen good OP, get buy-in tranches set up in upper $200 range. No guarantee that this is bottom or that Bitcoin will even break down this low, but if it does, there will be a good chance of making some of your money back on rebound and even if Bitcoin goes much lower, probable worst case scenario is that you break even on rebound.

Take no heed of the mealy mouthed arseholes who are basically saying you deserve your losses for 'only getting into Bitcoin for material gain'. Bitcoin stopped being a 'libertarian cause' and degenerated into a blood thirsty shark infested fiat feeding frenzy quite some time ago. If you deserve your losses for any reason at all, then it was for listening to and believing the fairy stories from the very same category of Bitcoin Nutter that is reprimanding you now. Bitcoin is the ultimate gambling roller coaster. Don't allow yourself to be shark bait (again), don't take any trade that isn't at an extremity of trading trend and be ready to drop it in an instant should it start to smell a little bit foul.

And if it does not, can you please cut off your typing fingers and eat them? Video would be nice too. It's people like you with your silly FUD who lead sheep like OP to stupid decisions & consecutively more pain. So please, rid the world of yourself.

But, understanding bitcoin might prevent you from making such silly posts