Topic: I give up - page 9. (Read 22635 times)

No, I don't care for immediate price movements, but your call to short at 430 is nothing short of ridiculous. For an extremely slim chance of $100 profit, you would risk what, where are your stops? at $800?

Are you that anxious to see me proven wrong that you pounce on a call of mine as soon as the market goes $20 against it?

Are you such a fkn bulltard that you start wetting your pants whenever Bitcoin rallies $25 on totally unremarkable volume, stopping dead right in front of a very short term and not particularly significant descending resistance trendline?

I originally stated that Bitcoin was a great short at $520. After I said that, Bitcoin went to $548. Where are we now? Was Bitcoin a great short at $520?

As it happens I never shorted at $520 and I never shorted at $430 either just as I amn't going to short now. Whether my $200 range call comes good anytime soon I don't know, but Bitcoin testing $360 is looking very very likely. Infact, I would go as far as to say that it is already written on the wall

P.S. I am not quite sure how bad a call I would have to make to match your recommendation that I hold at $1000 range back in early Dec 2013. Maxcoin to $10K by July 2014?

P.P.S. LOL. Looking at the time of your post, you really were wetting your pants at that pissy little counter trend rally weren't you? Did you think that the great reversal had come did you!? Fool!

The supply of coins is constant no matter what the mining cost. Even if miners cant make a profit and shut down the difficulty adjusts and the supply remains the same - unlike any other commodity.

+1

:facepalm: please sell your house and follow your "good short" advice. Maybe we won't have you typing here anymore then

Totally AGree that if we spent a substantional amount of time @ sub 300 the wheels have fallen off and crypo will start to cannibalise itself from the inside out

May happen but I think the % chances of this happening are low ...sooooooo much really good infrastrutural news coming out of the last 4 weeks & VC capital flowing in ....

We will reap the harvest SOON

During the coming uptrend, which is a continuation of the past uptrend, and which will last maybe 5 years, maybe 10, maybe more, there will always be a large number of people who think they are too late. This is probably the main reason why there is a stretched out uptake, even after the point that everybody know what bitcoin is.

As Swift wrote It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into.
Permabulls are permabulls, it's all about sentiment and hope.

Exactly my point. Better late than never. And she sold above the current price

 

Ever heard of patience?

I remember advising n00bs not to buy in in $800 range, asking them to imagine how they would feel when when Bitcoin was trending in $400 - $500 range. That was around 3 months ago. A long time in Bitcoin world. At the time, I was pointed at and laughed out the place, yet here we are 90 days down the line. Trending in $400 - $500 range with the next leg of significant trade volume looking certain to take us down into $300 - $400 range.

Just a couple of weeks ago you were enthusing that the rocket had lifted off and advising everyone to get $500 range tickets whilst they were still available. I would have thought that with the price action since then and the ultra negative looking state of pretty much everything, that you might have laid of the Kool-Aid a bit by now.

I last stated in lower $500s that if I hadn't banned myself from shorting Bitcoin, that I would short Bitcoin. Even now at $430, Bitcoin is still a good short as sooner rather than later, we are definitely going sub $400. What happens in the $300 range is another matter but I believe that we will ultimately see $200 range. When he have hit some resistance in $300 range, I may take a long position, sleep on it, and see how I feel about Bitcoin after a bit of subconscious pondering.

AGreed

To be fair we have tested & retested the 415 support line ...many many times

Your fantasy sub 300 still has not come to pass ... go hungry bear boy

We'll see. I am not a psychic to see where the price will go at which exact date, but in my opinion 400 would hold and rebound above 500 will happen "soon enough". I would not bet anything on it though, but that is my understanding, that's why I'm buying at low 4xx.

Meaning, it is not enough to be a permabull - you have to be the last standing permabull.

Your right a lot of people will sell their coins but only to buy back more. No doubt the majority will buy high, sell low, rinse and repeat as has been the case forever.

Complete fkn delusion on toast! BTW. we have two more days to break out above $500 like you assured everyone that Bitcoin would. Seems that a break below $400 is more likely but nevermind eh?



Up until recently, I had a compulsive Bitcoin gambling problem. 'Compulsive Gambling because I would look to take a trade at almost any point I could delude myself into believing was an opprtune moment to take one. This meant along with my 'wise' trades where it was clear to me that the writing was on the wall such as calling Bitcoin definite short from $520, a trade I never took cos I am 'off it'; I made lots of little crappy trades that I would drop out of when the market started to go in the wrong direction. Stupid fkn trades that would nibble into my profit levels. However, the one thing I noticed with 99% of my losing trades, is that had I only held out for a few days or even a few hours in some circumstances, then my losing trades would generally have turned into winners, or at least break evens.

My last short was about two weeks ago at ~$420, after the bounce from $340, with maxed leveraged. Yeah, I knew I was chasing missed opportunity (I had a dream that Bitcoin was about to take a landslide but was on holiday so never placed the trade) and I knew I was chasing the market, but since I was convinced of Bitcoins overall downward trend, how could I possibly lose if only I had the nerve to hold out until the trade came good?

• Bitcoin dipped back down under $400. So far so Good.
• Bitcoin bounced back up to just under my buy-in price. Bounces are to be expected. Trade was still good.
• A flood of 'buying power' on Huobi pushed price up to $440 very quickly. Lying cheating fkn Chinese manipulating b'stards! That is me in the red.
• More buying power on Huobi pushed price up to $470. Urghhh. Still, stick to my guns and everything will come good.
• $495 now. Holy shit, this is standing to be the biggest trading loss ever, but stick to guns and everything will come good.
• Again on Huobi, buying surge (read hooky short squeeze) kicks in, Bitcoin up to $520. Holy fkn shit! around 60% loss on capital. Point of complete liquididation comes at $546.67!

Am now in seriously in sweating blood mode. What to do? What to do? Go have a shower. You are gonna hold it, you are gonna hold it, you are gonna hold it, you are gonna hold it. Bitcoin back down to $495. Cool, sell 5 BTC to raise liquidation price to $565. Bitcoin goes back up to $512! ATERDHGADFHGAYDSFGH CLOSE TRADE WITH MARKET ORDER!

That is a reverse example of the psychology of a holder with a fixed idea in their heads. It was the first time that I have ever traded Bitcoin long or short with a 'fixed' idea in my head. Usually I am guilty of bowing out too quickly to counter trend winds, so this time, I vowed to 'HODL my SHOTR'! And that is what Bitcoin does to concrete minds with fixed views or objectives. The fact that Bitcoin hit just a few cents above my original position liquidation price (Bitfinex to $547) tells me all I need to know about the trading philosophy I adopted for just this one trade. As I type, Bitcoin is right back down at my 'break even' buy-in price. Even as I closed my position, I knew that I was closing my short on a fantastic shorting opportunity. But such are the psychological pressures of holding out rigidly against the winds of the market. Everyone is liable to make the same mistakes and will make the same mistakes. I endured just a few days of the market going against me (max leverage never helped and neither did the psychological conditions of losing 100% of funds in Bitfinex trading account). Some around here have been holding Bitcoins for months. Many thought they had hit the jackpot only to find that they are now treading water. Many others are now underwater, still praying to their god HODL on a daily basis but with the winds of the market blowing into their faces the whole time.

When Bitcoin breaches $380 (again) and then $340, plenty people who vowed to hold their Bitcoins, will actually impulse sell their Bitcoins, knowing that they are most likely making a grave mistake over the long(er) term as Bitcoin will surely bounce back up higher sooner or later, but who are simply unable to take the psychological pressure of the chance of 'losing it all'.

The previous top on 10/4/2013 at Gox was 266, but the Gox levels are unimportant history now. The top at Bitstamp in April 2013 was 251. That is indeed my major support now. Ignore the already breached 380 major support on Bitstamp at your peril.

There is only one support level, at $260, wake me up when it is breached. Before that, unsubstantiated panic selling or gambling, but nothing to do with investing. And believe me, most hodlers do not even consider this dip to $400 as anything remarkable but a nice buying opportunity.

I bet there are some people reading you, hodlers, and thinking "Hold now for me the bitcoins you are going to sell to me at 251 or, perhaps, much lower, after you wake up too late of your bitcoin fairytale"
But I'm going to write only that on a market, keeping the same opinion no matter what happens, no matter how many support levels are breached, is a dangerous perspective. Sharks love people with fixed ideas. Usually, they only change them on the wrong moment.
And if you, my dear reader, think that by writing this I'm hoping to influence the price down, you must be thinking that I have you in high regard (as a bitcoin big whale) and that I have my words on an even higher regard. I don't. We are what we are and words rarely change our behaviour. I'm just criticizing the perspective. Holding if the 380 and the 339 gets breached is a serious mistake. Will they be breached? I don't know! I just know we are on a bearish trend and there is a serious risk that this will happen.
Like you, I do believe in bitcoin on the long term. I just don't believe most hodlers will sustain the pressure if this slow motion ends and we start seeing big moves on the wrong direction. So, they are going to sell too late.

Just hold! Bitcoin has gone through these bubble cycles at least five times now. With the current level of awareness and holders compared to 2011 in mind, we must be at the bottom of the current cycle or near to it.

God damn... you'd think people would learn by now.