6 months ago I posted this and the HODL traders said I was a fool. Well... they are down another 33% or more since then.
IF... you are posting here, then you are trying to talk yourselves into believing that your losses are part of the game and in the long run you'll be profitable.
YOU WON'T - You will lose, it's the way of the game. Despair is yet to come, there is still another 25% drop coming. That doesn't mean there won't be rebounds, but lower we go....
Bitcoin - Headed a lot lower, back to the Mean
Like a lot of people on this Forum, I'm in pain right now too. My gains and profits are now turning into losses - capital is vanishing, melting, gone away. And it's going to get worse. I like reading the post here, it's a good community. BUT, lots of people are going to learn a hard lesson if they are trading like they say in their posts.
I've been trading markets for 35 years - as a job - and yep, I'm an old dude. I am still a trader and an accountant for a mid-size company; stocks, bonds, funds, options, futures, forwards, and a lot of currencies (thank god we aren't in Crypto-investments at work too).
Last year was seductive, I was doing well in all the markets (equity, debt, and crypto) - 'halcyon days'. Last year, I had profits in Crypto, I was even buying into "it will be different this time." But this year, I now have "unrealized" losses with some serious % numbers next to them. And I'm, from what I read, I'm not alone.
There are unavoidable Truths coming, if not already here. Lots of, if not most, people will lose in Crypto/Bitcoin investing. It’s just the way of the market. Holding to the end is a sure fire way to lose. Stepping up, ending a trade that’s losing money is so, so hard to do. But right now, it’s the only right answer. Save your capital, fight another day.
Good luck
The King Fisher and Wicked Pigeon
The classics never die.. they just find new markets.
From Jean-Paul Rodrigue (2017)
Bubbles can be very damaging, especially for those who arrived late with the hope of getting something for nothing. Even if they are inflationary events, the outcome of a bubble’s blow off is very deflationary as large quantities of capital vanish in the wave of bankruptcies and financial defaults they trigger. Historically, they tended to be far in-between, but the scale and amplitude of bubbles has accelerated; web/technology stocks (deflated in 2000), real estate (deflated in 2006), commodities (deflated in 2008) and crypto-currencies such as Bitcoin (deflated in 2018).