ICBIT Derivatives Market (USD/BTC futures trading) - LIVE - page 36.

Ichthyo

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Quote from: smickles on November 16, 2012, 07:33:30 PM

icbit is now rejecting all my orders
Is anyone able to place a buy or sell, at market or specified price w/o it being rejected?
I see the live book updating with new orders...

I can confirm this happens from time to time, seemingly sporadically. I couldn't identify any pattern. It seems to stick until the current rate moves.

Maybe this behaviour is also what gave MPOE the impression or suspicion of manipulations by the platform's operators.
Which might of course be the case, but, honestly, to me this looks more like a bug in the margin calculation.

Ichthyo

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Quote from: Stephen Gornick on November 16, 2012, 06:02:19 PM

If there was the ability to extend that trust, the market would have shot down 8 o'clock Charlie long ago.

Quote from: segabtc on November 16, 2012, 06:52:00 PM

i would like to see yubikey (OTP) or something similar implemented for this exchange. I think that might instill some trust. Again this is up to fireball and what can be done within the timeframe of life!

yes this would instill some trust,. Likewise a site operator exposing his real name and address can instill some trust, but all of this doesn't solve the fundamental problem. Yes it is a fundamental and long standing problem, but with a system like bitcoin we might indeed come up with a novel solution...

Quote from: killerstorm on November 16, 2012, 06:38:33 PM

In theory exchange could require participants to lock their funds in multisig escrow instead of sending those funds directly to exchange.

This is the real meat!

The "classical" solution to the problem is:

for someone running a business, tie his possibility to "exist" within the society to his "reputation"
create rules to the effect that any misbehaviour ruins that "reputation"
allow the clients to trigger this happening (only) in a controlled and legaly bound manner

This classical solution will never work satisfactory in a setup, where the entity running the business is out of scope, either being too large for any legal system, or operating just remote or generally out of reach in some way. Now, with the things able to be built on top of bitcoin (or a similar system, I am referring to multisig, coloured coins and/or contracts), we have another, more promising option: mechanisation of trust. Instead of having to trust someone socially, rather install a protective machinery.

PS: ok ok, we aren't there and in the meantime, anything improving the conventional kind of trust would be great

MPOE-PR

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Quote from: Stephen Gornick on November 16, 2012, 06:02:19 PM

As we saw ..., 8 o'clock Charlie (the clearing price manipulator who drops a BUZ2 bomb right before 8pm GMT every day) only got enough rope to hang himself. There are reasons there aren't bids for thousands of BTCs up near the BTC/USD spot market price right now (with fewer than 30 days till BUZ2 settlement) and from what I can tell the primary reason is inability to trust. It is hard to send non-trivial amounts of bitcoins to a financial service which operates anonymously. Without participation from those willing to put their coins to work removing price inefficiencies means 8 o'clock Charlie has full control to put the clearing price wherever he wants it to be.

If there was the ability to extend that trust, the market would have shot down 8 o'clock Charlie long ago.

That 8 o'clock Charlie is the site itself.

segabtc

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Activity: 462

Merit: 250

just sold some less than minute ago, all is well here

smickles

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Activity: 446

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icbit is now rejecting all my orders

EDIT: Is anyone able to place a buy or sell, at market or specified price w/o it being rejected?
I see the live book updating with new orders...

MPOE-PR

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Activity: 756

Merit: 522

Quote from: smickles on November 16, 2012, 04:53:40 PM

So I just hallucinated that log entry which I saw at 20:30 UTC and used to report data to several people?

But seriously, I'm sure I saw a variation margin entry which is not the one currently shown in my logs.

This is starting to sound like dwolla. Fireball, all this sudden change would obviously have nothing to do with the recent write-up on Trilema, right?

Not like you panicked at first and tried to wipe out MP's margin, then thought better of it and actually aligned the fake prices you list with the market BTC/USD rate.

Right?

segabtc

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Activity: 462

Merit: 250

i would like to see yubikey (OTP) or something similar implemented for this exchange. I think that might instill some trust. Again this is up to fireball and what can be done within the timeframe of life!

killerstorm

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Activity: 1022

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Quote from: Stephen Gornick on November 16, 2012, 06:02:19 PM

If there was the ability to extend that trust, the market would have shot down 8 o'clock Charlie long ago.

In theory exchange could require participants to lock their funds in multisig escrow instead of sending those funds directly to exchange.

However this tech isn't commonplace yet. But we can hope that one day...

segabtc

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lol love the MASH 4077 reference, oh wait i might be dating myself!

Stephen Gornick

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Quote from: Fireball on November 16, 2012, 04:48:13 PM

Quote from: segabtc on November 16, 2012, 04:29:09 PM

maybe needs to say that within a 5 minutes window of close, closing can occur, and create a random time of closing everyday, but within that 5 minute window, ie 7:55 to 8:00 closing can occur.

I like the suggestion really, it introduces some useful randomness without hurting integrity of financial operations.

As we saw ..., 8 o'clock Charlie (the clearing price manipulator who drops a BUZ2 bomb right before 8pm GMT every day) only got enough rope to hang himself. There are reasons there aren't bids for thousands of BTCs up near the BTC/USD spot market price right now (with fewer than 30 days till BUZ2 settlement) and from what I can tell the primary reason is inability to trust. It is hard to send non-trivial amounts of bitcoins to a financial service which operates anonymously. Without participation from those willing to put their coins to work removing price inefficiencies means 8 o'clock Charlie has full control to put the clearing price wherever he wants it to be.

If there was the ability to extend that trust, the market would have shot down 8 o'clock Charlie long ago.

Paul Troon

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Merit: 10

Quote from: Fireball on November 10, 2012, 02:51:40 PM

Proper solution is a liquid market, with many market making bots competing with each other. This way, it would not be possible to move market too much without simply losing money.

But, still, until the market becomes liquid (I'm working on that too, and will be providing reference market maker bot code for everyone to use for free), some of your suggestion makes sense: e.g. they influenced my previous two proposals.

Please do post your market marking bot ideas. I agree that liquidity is the answer and competing (but cautious) bots should be able to provide that liquidity while netting a small profit from the spread.

segabtc

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Activity: 462

Merit: 250

maybe give you another suggestion about market depth, keep same window for orders and put in a scrolling button up or down on the side and import all orders and let people scroll up and down through the orders to see what is there. just a suggestion.

Fireball

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Quote from: Ichthyo on November 16, 2012, 05:09:50 PM

another thing not related to this drama...

since at least yesterday, I get an error from the logs view.

When navigating to the log pane, there is an popup

Quote

[object Object]: error: Internal Server Error

The upper pane with the trading fees and variation margin is filled, but the lower pane with the trading history just shows "Loading data from server"

I tried Firefox 3.5 and 16

Please email me (with your login name) and this will be investigated and fixed.

segabtc

sr. member

Activity: 462

Merit: 250

16.02 FF i see logs n trade history,need to upgrade from FF 16 to 16.02, there is a critical flaw in 16.

Ichthyo

hero member

Activity: 602

Merit: 500

another thing not related to this drama...

since at least yesterday, I get an error from the logs view.

When navigating to the log pane, there is an popup

Quote

[object Object]: error: Internal Server Error

The upper pane with the trading fees and variation margin is filled, but the lower pane with the trading history just shows "Loading data from server"

I tried Firefox 3.5 and 16

segabtc

sr. member

Activity: 462

Merit: 250

the 15 minutes or even an hour is fine with me, just threw 5 minutes out as a place to start the discussion. throwing shit at the wall and see what sticks, kinda thing.

Ichthyo

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Activity: 602

Merit: 500

Quote from: Fireball on November 16, 2012, 04:48:13 PM

Quote from: segabtc on November 16, 2012, 04:29:09 PM

maybe needs to say that within a 5 minutes window of close, closing can occur, and create a random time of closing everyday, but within that 5 minute window, ie 7:55 to 8:00 closing can occur.

I like the suggestion really, it introduces some useful randomness without hurting integrity of financial operations.

maybe it should be a bit larger, more like about 15 min or even 1 hour.
Just enough to make "staged operations" uninteresting and too risky. Just 5 minutes aren't enough. In the past, the manipulator typically came shortly after 19:00 and prepared the field. Then the actual activities happened during about 20 minutes.

Personally I would even randomise the trading session duration way more, since I don't see that a fixed schedule makes any sense in a 24/7 world. But I understand that your intention is to stick as closely as possible to the setup of a classical future.

Fireball

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Quote from: segabtc on November 16, 2012, 04:04:08 PM

is this a nervous bear? Huh

or straight up manipulation? can you give a little insight as to what happened, no names or anything, just the facts.

I represent an exchange, so either bull or bear, they are our precious clients. ICBIT treats them equally, and the only task is to reduce risks of either loosing all money (better to loose part, but not all), or the risk of exchange's clearing pool "default".

As a trader... Well. Of course, when you see market going in other direction than you expected, this means you need to have some small, egg-shaped parts of your body to be made of high quality titan :-) However, the market goes back and forth, and only those with steel nerves can get the biggest profits.

segabtc

sr. member

Activity: 462

Merit: 250

why thanks, glad you liked the idea, I have been lurking and watching and reading this topic and that is the only way to give the market a chance, to fluctuate is one thing but to be able to game because you have X amount of btc I can dump and drive down anytime I want and closing is occurring in 3, 2, 1, saved the var. and might even made a profit, but it gets in a situation of increasing the dumps to stay ahead. "VERY DANGEROUS". Another answer you gave in a previous reply that I was curious about, Do you close ALL open positions or just enough to cover var.? Apparently it is covering just what needs to be covered. Thanks for your work.

smickles

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Activity: 446

Merit: 250

Quote from: Fireball on November 16, 2012, 04:46:05 PM

Quote from: smickles on November 16, 2012, 04:42:16 PM

woah, icbit logs arn't persistent?
my settlement numbers just changed today
earlier, the close was marked at 10.11897
now that entry is gone
replaced by an entry dated 1.5 hours later, close market at 10.8088

No way. It can't happen. You mixed up something. By the nature of the system, everything is logged, settlement prices are written in a database, in incremental order, so they can't be "just altered".

So I just hallucinated that log entry which I saw at 20:30 UTC and used to report data to several people?

But seriously, I'm sure I saw a variation margin entry which is not the one currently shown in my logs.

Topic: ICBIT Derivatives Market (USD/BTC futures trading) - LIVE - page 36. (Read 97688 times)