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Topic: ICBIT Derivatives Market (USD/BTC futures trading) - LIVE - page 35. (Read 97702 times)

legendary
Activity: 1022
Merit: 1033
Nope. They did try (pushing it down as low as 9.5ish), but failed and eventually seem to have given up.

Which means that MP got some good profit out of this. And now he's complaining?

This was the first time he ever traded there. Pretty sure it's also the last (for the noted reasons).

Yeah, I, too, hate it when I have profit.

This was/is a long position in any case.

Or so you say...

At the very minimum you get MPEx signed receipts, so you can clearly prove what happens, rather than the situation here where the site does something,

Ehm... Suppose there is a connection problem and you DIDN'T get a signed receipt.

Now what, can you prove that you HAVEN'T got it? You don't even know whether server registered your trade or not.

Do you know a story about Byzantine Generals? Look it up.

BTW trade via colored coins will be Byzantine fault tolerant in some way (due to use of Bitcoin protocol which is Byzantine fault tolerant), while simplistic HTTP-based trade won't be, ever. (Not that it matters that much, but it's nice.)

hero member
Activity: 547
Merit: 500
Decor in numeris
You vote with your BTC. This point has to be understood very, very clearly. If you give your BTC away to scams "because it's easy" instead of investing in sites that actually work you are creating the very environment of perpetual scams, economical and financial irrelevance and ultimately failure.

Having Bitcoins first and foremost means you're responsible for them.
Well said!

That doesn't mean that I agree with the rest of what you have been saying, but it is indeed true that scammers are having it too easy in bitcoin land.
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 522
MPOE-PR - I gotta wonder....did MP get squeezed out?

Nope. They did try (pushing it down as low as 9.5ish), but failed and eventually seem to have given up.

I had some suspicion that MP was one of the larger hands trading at ICBit once GLBSE shutdown.

This was the first time he ever traded there. Pretty sure it's also the last (for the noted reasons).

I also note that MP has a history of establishing risky short positions

This was/is a long position in any case.

and definitely have no more or less recourse in either case against a nefarious exchange operator.

At the very minimum you get MPEx signed receipts, so you can clearly prove what happens, rather than the situation here where the site does something, then the operator comes and brazenly claims that it didn't. Of particular note:

The one thing I find most disturbing about accusations, is that most humans seem to accuse others of those faults, flaws, and outright criminal behavior, that they themselves are guilty of. MPOE-PR, you post about pretty much every other trading related site, in a negative way. I'm starting to wonder how many of your accusations are based in MP's own behavior (and not that of the competing exchange being accused). That notwithstanding, MP's opinion on other exchanges has been pretty well-founded, and predictions of doom have oft been correct. So...................

You know, we aren't the same person. MP is a boy. I am a girl. MP is a business type. I am mostly a writer. On it goes.

What would you practically have me do? After people lost money by being idiots and ignoring the obvious points (ie, for instance, that unlike MPEx GLBSE was quite going to screw the issuers exactly the way it did in the end) people didn't draw the conclusion that "we were idiots and should have listened to MPOE-PR" except in the minority. In the majority they became convinced that "Bitcoin finance doesn't work".

We're committed to making BTC finance work. It may be a larger task than anyone anticipates, it may even be impossible to do, though we don't think so. This attitude whereby one just sits idly by while people think that "they have to trade somewhere" and so they trade with Bitcoinica (which, incidentally, it turns out MP knew was going to fail, for the exact reasons that it did; he discussed this privately with people who actually have money, and I never said anything publicly) and then trade with some ridiculous proposition where some anonymous "Raphael" re-uses that provedly-broken code without even bothering to secure permission, and then they trade with bucket shops like this and on and on, and then they lose on "everything they tried" (cause obviously they only try the things made to be "easy", cause obviously they can't be arsed to use the things made to work because bla bla) and so conclude that "oh, you can't invest in Bitcoins" has to be countered by something.

Yes, we seem to be some of the very few who happen to give two shits. This is easily explained: we do in fact have a vested interest in making BTC finance work. That's fine. But I'd like to revisit a point from an otherwise amply ignored article, just like everything else sensible is ignored around here in favor of hollow groupthink bullshit:

When a small majority* of participants behave irresponsibly however the net result is not just pain to their own fortunes, but pain spread across the board. All of a sudden you have to be very intelligent, and very experienced, and very well informed to manage to keep your money safe, and often enough even that's not going to suffice.

You vote with your BTC. This point has to be understood very, very clearly. If you give your BTC away to scams "because it's easy" instead of investing in sites that actually work you are creating the very environment of perpetual scams, economical and financial irrelevance and ultimately failure.

Having Bitcoins first and foremost means you're responsible for them.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
Fireball: Randomizing the clearing time to a 5,10,15min window would be a very good thing
(also, is a scroll bar on the orderbook so challenging? I can't believe this is still not fixed yet....it's just not that complex to solve IMO, but it IS having an major effect on traders - please don't wait for additional updates. It's always better to push updates to live with fewer changes than updates with More changes 

MPOE-PR - I gotta wonder....did MP get squeezed out? I had some suspicion that MP was one of the larger hands trading at ICBit once GLBSE shutdown. I also note that MP has a history of establishing risky short positions (i.e. his synthetic pirate pass through).

Do I trust Fireball? Nope. But I don't get the sense that he's the market manipulator.

Do I trust Mircea? Not anymore than fireball. I have not more "proof" of MP's identity than I do of Fireball's, really, and definitely have no more or less recourse in either case against a nefarious exchange operator.

In the end, though, I gotta trade somewhere. So, I trade where the exchange operators seem to be as honest as possible, and as communicative as possible.

The one thing I find most disturbing about accusations, is that most humans seem to accuse others of those faults, flaws, and outright criminal behavior, that they themselves are guilty of. MPOE-PR, you post about pretty much every other trading related site, in a negative way. I'm starting to wonder how many of your accusations are based in MP's own behavior (and not that of the competing exchange being accused). That notwithstanding, MP's opinion on other exchanges has been pretty well-founded, and predictions of doom have oft been correct. So...................

TBH, I'm getting a little nervous. One of these leverage platforms are going to crash & burn. ICBit? MPEx/MPOE? Bitfinex? I'd like to be completely out before it does this time, dammit.

hero member
Activity: 547
Merit: 500
Decor in numeris
A bunch of updates coming pretty soon, the most tasty being depth of the market chart and Google Auth protection for withdrawals.

The first is good news.  The second is really good news!
hero member
Activity: 674
Merit: 500
Nothing exciting happened tonight...  Boooring Smiley
:-)

A bunch of updates coming pretty soon, the most tasty being depth of the market chart and Google Auth protection for withdrawals.
hero member
Activity: 547
Merit: 500
Decor in numeris
Nothing exciting happened tonight...  Boooring Smiley
hero member
Activity: 674
Merit: 500
This MPOE-PR spammer is quite obsessive. I reported to the moderator once again.

I tried speaking directly to Mircea Popescu on #bitcoin-assets, to address the false accusations he expressed, however he doesn't understand basic financial stuff:
Quote
[xx:20] <_Fireball> contracts are NOT settled a 20:00 GMT
[xx:20] <_Fireball> is that clear now?
[xx:20] <@assbot> [MPEX] [S.BVPS] 1200 @ 0.00280004 = 3.36 BTC [-]
[xx:20] <_Fireball> you can check your own logs
[xx:20] <_Fireball> you can confirm and verify
[xx:21] listen. is there some event occuring on your site every day at 20:00 ?
[xx:21] <_Fireball> settlement day is 15.12.2012
[xx:21] <_Fireball> yes, it's called clearing, it's a technical event
[xx:21] yes yes. you settle daily inasmuch as you keep moving margins around.
[xx:21] heh, mircea_popescu technically settlement is jargon
[xx:21] it has specific meaning
[xx:21] ignoring the fact you've got your terminology borkt.
[xx:22] <_Fireball> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clearing_(finance)
[xx:22] <_Fireball> vs
[xx:22] <_Fireball> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Settlement_(finance)
[xx:22] anyway, _Fireball so you suspect connection failure when I still saw the live depth updating?
[xx:23] dear old wikipedia.

I will leave the question of how did he managed to create his own Options Exchange when lacking such a basic knowledge to the readers.

Quickly searching through forums reveals info about him: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/heres-where-i-spew-my-accusations-against-mpoe-all-are-welcome-102333
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 522
It's sad that Mircea Popescu decided to jump into false accusations.

That's so last summer...

Quote
Aug 28 16:05:05    well you're making some pretty serious claims
Aug 28 16:05:11    on that page
Aug 28 16:05:17    unless youre privy to information Im not
Aug 28 16:05:25    on GLBSE accounts getting hacked
Aug 28 16:05:34    so
Aug 28 16:05:39    suck it
Aug 28 16:05:40    and
Aug 28 16:05:40    so go correct it.
Aug 28 16:05:41    gnight
Aug 28 16:05:52    whenever, when you wake up.
Aug 28 16:05:58    What page?
Aug 28 16:06:25    [GLBSE] [MERGEDMINING] 1 @ 0.0801 BTC [-]
Aug 28 16:06:33    mircea_popescu: make up some security vulnerabilites and compromises about GLBSE
Aug 28 16:06:38    posted it on his porn site
Aug 28 16:06:45    says "it's legit"
Aug 28 16:06:51    and
Aug 28 16:06:52    Luceo http://polimedia.us/trilema/2012/security-comparison-of-bitcoin-denominated-instruments-exchanges/
Aug 28 16:06:59    "prove me wrong"
Aug 28 16:07:03    nefario learn to quote srsly.
Aug 28 16:07:17    mircea_popescu: learn to paraphrase
Aug 28 16:07:34    he's making claims with no evidence
Aug 28 16:07:35    no see, it's bad to paraphrase when you're part to a dispute.
Aug 28 16:07:45    and convieniently ignoring the shit on his own doorstep
Aug 28 16:08:01    what shit is that dood ? "copyrighted material" ?
Aug 28 16:08:14    i've had about half dozen fraudulent or otherwise baseless dmca notices in the past 5 years
Aug 28 16:08:17    i disputed all of them
Aug 28 16:08:20    that goes in the legal risks
Aug 28 16:08:23    other party never responded to the dispute filing.
Aug 28 16:08:24    also
Aug 28 16:08:27    dun dun dun.
Aug 28 16:08:33    I live in manchester
Aug 28 16:08:35    UK
Aug 28 16:08:41    im eagerly awaiting on the next half dozen batch.
Aug 28 16:08:49    [GLBSE] [FPGAMINING] 6 @ 0.90999 = 5.4599 BTC [-]
Aug 28 16:08:57    o, you're in the uk ? so say so (there!) so people know better. why is this so hard ?
Aug 28 16:08:57    I pointed several out yesterday
Aug 28 16:09:08    your retort was: then post it on my site"
Aug 28 16:09:22    I'm in China
Aug 28 16:09:25    on holiday
Aug 28 16:09:32    ending soon
Aug 28 16:09:37    [GLBSE] [YABMC] 9 @ 0.1348 = 1.2132 BTC [-]
Aug 28 16:09:39    [GLBSE] [YABMC] 26 @ 0.1349 = 3.5074 BTC
Aug 28 16:09:40    [GLBSE] [YABMC] 146 @ 0.135 = 19.71 BTC
Aug 28 16:09:41    I've been living in the UK for nearly a year
Aug 28 16:09:42    [GLBSE] [YABMC] 10 @ 0.135 = 1.35 BTC
Aug 28 16:09:42    ok.
Aug 28 16:09:46    not a secret
Aug 28 16:10:04    weren't you saying you work there at some point ?
Aug 28 16:10:13    work where?
Aug 28 16:10:21    in china.
Aug 28 16:10:26    weren't you teaching or w/e ?
Aug 28 16:10:37    ja
Aug 28 16:10:39    a year ago
Aug 28 16:11:53    nefario: Make a rebuttal then if its FUD
hero member
Activity: 674
Merit: 500
It's sad that Mircea Popescu decided to jump into false accusations. I wrote a response in his thread, and I would like to thank you guys very much for non-biased analysis of the recent events.

I'm always quickly responding to all questions here, so if there are some doubts, issues - just drop me an email for private discussion, or ask here if you don't mind public discussion.
legendary
Activity: 1022
Merit: 1033
I've come to the conclusion (be it site op or someone else) that this situation sux.

FWIW it looks like extra liquidity have helped to break manipulator's plan.

Also note that if somebody tries to manipulate the market and fails, everybody gets some good extra profit. So it's not always bad. Smiley
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
Hey guys,

can someone give me a wrapup of what's been going on? I started trading BUZ2 on icbit some months ago with some play money (very little).

By speed-reading the last 2 pages of this thread I determine something fishy has been going on? I've been wondering why the price of BUZ2 was well below market even with the settlement date nearing. My layman explanation was: well, the dudes trading here think the price will go down. Wrong?



See here.

thanks, yeah, found that by myself and read parts of it.

thanks to killerstorm for the detailed explanation.

I've come to the conclusion (be it site op or someone else) that this situation sux.
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 522
Hey guys,

can someone give me a wrapup of what's been going on? I started trading BUZ2 on icbit some months ago with some play money (very little).

By speed-reading the last 2 pages of this thread I determine something fishy has been going on? I've been wondering why the price of BUZ2 was well below market even with the settlement date nearing. My layman explanation was: well, the dudes trading here think the price will go down. Wrong?



See here.
legendary
Activity: 2506
Merit: 1010
i would like to see yubikey (OTP) or something similar implemented for this exchange.

There is Google Authenticator OTP available as a security option now.

It is only used for login though, so there still is the need for another OTP challenge during withdrawal:

A plea to exchanges ... lets do 2 factor right!
 - https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/a-plea-to-exchanges-lets-do-2-factor-right-109424
legendary
Activity: 1022
Merit: 1033
Is this an attempt to shake out people by having their margins called? Isn't it futile to try to keep the BUZ2 price low against the nearing settlement and higher BTC/USD value?

Why do you think it is futile?

He does not need to keep price low, he only needs to force counter parties to close at unfavorable price and to close his position.

For example (note that I use terminology somewhat different from what ICBIT uses) suppose there are two parties: I sold 100k BTC @10.00 and other party bought it.

Now I see that spot price went above 10.00, so I'm losing money. But suppose that I have a lot of BTC in reserves.

So I make a massive sell-off, filling all bids from 10.00 to 5.00, and then put by own bid: 100k @5.00.

Counter-party needs 100,000 BTC to cover his position. Why? He is buying 100,000 BTC for 1,000,000 USD. If he sells those 100,000 BTC @5.00, he gets 500,000 USD. So he needs another 500,000 USD in var. margin, and it is 100,000 BTC at 5.00.

Even if counter-party has exactly 100,000 BTC in reserves he needs to close his position because he won't have enough reserves in case futures price will fall even lower.

So he sells 100,000 BTC @5.00, to me.

Now we both got to neutral positions, but I have 100,000 BTC profit and counter-party has 100,000 BTC loss. It won't be affected by settlement because position is already closed.

However, to drive price from 10.00 to 5.00 I had to sell some contracts. But how much I had to sell depends on depth of market at that time, not at size of my main bet, so it can be some small sum, e.g. 1000 BTC.

Moreover, I could close that position through same kind of manipulation.

So, basically,  a person who has more liquidity than the rest of the market combined can totally pwn that market.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.264503
hero member
Activity: 547
Merit: 500
Decor in numeris
According to the site, at expiration all contracts are settled at the avg. price of the largest spot market exchange (i.e. MtGox).
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
can someone give me a wrapup of what's been going on? I started trading BUZ2 on icbit some months ago with some play money (very little).

By speed-reading the last 2 pages of this thread I determine something fishy has been going on? I've been wondering why the price of BUZ2 was well below market even with the settlement date nearing. My layman explanation was: well, the dudes trading here think the price will go down. Wrong?

Since about the time of the last mini-crash of the BTC/USD rate, when also the BUZ2 rate went down below $10 for a short time, we can observe manipulation attempts always shortly before the closure time (20:00). The Intensity of those actions increased over time. They were more aggressive on the Oil futures, which have rather low liquidity. There, the manipulator was even really successful, on one instance he managed to shift the allowed trading range up so much that all of the existing bids were out of range. Since several days, the activities concentrate on the BUZ.

We can only speculate on what actually happened, but a IMHO plausible theory is that some trader(s) went short roughly at $10 (and similarily went long  on the oil futures at about $9), possibly expecting the BTC/USD rate to go way down below $10. This isn't surprising, since this was a common sentiment in the last weeks -- just that plan didn't work out.


Today, MPOE presented a different explanation, accusing the operators of ICBIT to be staging these manipulations.
See this thread and judge yourself: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/icbitse-the-bucket-shop-125376


PS: I just posted a summary of the events from yesterday evening into this other thread

thanks a lot for summing this up, Ichtyo.

Is this an attempt to shake out people by having their margins called? Isn't it futile to try to keep the BUZ2 price low against the nearing settlement and higher BTC/USD value?

I have one more question: what will happen on the settlement date? Can I "cash out" my BUZ2 at that point or will they be rolled over into a new (maybe also suppressed) BUZ3?
hero member
Activity: 602
Merit: 500
can someone give me a wrapup of what's been going on? I started trading BUZ2 on icbit some months ago with some play money (very little).

By speed-reading the last 2 pages of this thread I determine something fishy has been going on? I've been wondering why the price of BUZ2 was well below market even with the settlement date nearing. My layman explanation was: well, the dudes trading here think the price will go down. Wrong?

Since about the time of the last mini-crash of the BTC/USD rate, when also the BUZ2 rate went down below $10 for a short time, we can observe manipulation attempts always shortly before the closure time (20:00). The Intensity of those actions increased over time. They were more aggressive on the Oil futures, which have rather low liquidity. There, the manipulator was even really successful, on one instance he managed to shift the allowed trading range up so much that all of the existing bids were out of range. Since several days, the activities concentrate on the BUZ.

We can only speculate on what actually happened, but a IMHO plausible theory is that some trader(s) went short roughly at $10 (and similarily went long  on the oil futures at about $9), possibly expecting the BTC/USD rate to go way down below $10. This isn't surprising, since this was a common sentiment in the last weeks -- just that plan didn't work out.


Today, MPOE presented a different explanation, accusing the operators of ICBIT to be staging these manipulations.
See this thread and judge yourself: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/icbitse-the-bucket-shop-125376


PS: I just posted a summary of the events from yesterday evening into this other thread
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
Hey guys,

can someone give me a wrapup of what's been going on? I started trading BUZ2 on icbit some months ago with some play money (very little).

By speed-reading the last 2 pages of this thread I determine something fishy has been going on? I've been wondering why the price of BUZ2 was well below market even with the settlement date nearing. My layman explanation was: well, the dudes trading here think the price will go down. Wrong?

sr. member
Activity: 446
Merit: 250
icbit is now rejecting all my orders
Is anyone able to place a buy or sell, at market or specified price w/o it being rejected?
I see the live book updating with new orders...

I can confirm this happens from time to time, seemingly sporadically. I couldn't identify any pattern. It seems to stick until the current rate moves.

Maybe this behaviour is also what gave MPOE the impression or suspicion of manipulations by the platform's operators.
Which might of course be the case, but, honestly, to me this looks more like a bug in the margin calculation.
Actually, this is a more recent development. But it is unfortunate that I can't participate in the market right now.
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