Topic: Impossibility of a gambling system (Why methods don't work) - page 8. (Read 1587 times)

The martingale is probably one of the most known and most popular betting methods of all time.

Just for a simple example of the outcomes of using martingale:

Lets say you have 100$ (for simplicity), only doubling 100% on a loss (50 / 50 coin-flip), doing this until you hit 200$ or bust.

You would have a 50% chance of doubling your money (+100$) and 50% chance of losing everything (-100$). This gets a lot worse when you start to look at house edge, hence the house always wins phrase.

And that is why martingale is not really effective, as the longer you play with this system the odds grow overtime. If you employ strategy and have successes in the beginning, before get out and exit while you can and don't feel confident that you have caught the 'holy grail' of strategies. Control is the key is you wanted to win using martingale (or any variations of it).

Actually had tried to make use of martingale with roulette which only bets with one color then increases 100% if bets lost. I thought making money is easier with martingale with roulette than dice but when theres a color train it did bust up all of my balance.Majority knows that theres no magic or exploiting gambling sites and make money but this is an impossible thing.

Introduction

In continuation of my last thread on the Gambler's Fallacy I am writing this thread to explain more specifically why "strategic" methods don't work. We've all heard of and seen these methods float around forums for years, let's end that. Let people have fun, and don't trick them into thinking they have better odds using a "method".

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Definition

The principle of the impossibility of a gambling system is a concept in probability. It states that in a random sequence, the methodical selection of subsequences does not change the probability of specific elements.

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A Simple Example

A sequence of fair coin tosses produces equal and independent 50/50 chances for heads and tails.

Let's take a series of coin flips (h = heads, t = tails, x = next flip):

     {A}: H T H H H T X

     {B}: T T T T T T X

Given series {A} and series {B} (assuming a fair coin), the odds that "X" becomes a "T" (or tails) is 50%.

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Why

As a mathematical consequence of computability theory, more complicated betting strategies (such as a martingale) also cannot alter the odds in the long run.

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What is considered a "method"

A simple system of betting on heads every 3rd, 7th, or 21st toss, etc., does not change the odds of winning in the long run. This includes all popular methods like martingale, etc. (Remember we are talking about things like dice rolls and coin tosses here, in contrast to something like poker which requires some level of skill)

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In conclusion

Just gamble how you want to, don't feel bad because you aren't missing out on anything. Often times, methods can end up taking more of your money because of the house edge. Even though a lot of people seem to understand that methods don't change your odds, I've still seen plenty of others who believe they work. Please never buy methods, I've seen it happen too many times.

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Further reading:

Wikipedia Page | In-depth Thesis